Response To Steve: Keep Montero, Even If He’s A DH

Steve made an interestingly, nuanced argument yesterday that Jesus Montero ought be traded if it turns out he is unable to play catcher. With Mark Teixeira at first base, Alex Rodriguez at 3rd, and Jesus Montero unlikely to play a passable left field, designated hitter would be his long term destination on the Yankees. Steve’s argument is not that Montero would not be a capable DH, but that pushing him to DH out of positional scarcity gets less than optimal value out of Jesus. Essentially, he’d be worth 100 points to the Yankees, but 150 points to a team that needs a 1st baseman.

It is a really interesting argument, and I definitely understand where Steve is coming from. He isn’t actually arguing that we trade Jesus Montero for Roy Halladay or someone, but rather that we sell high on the young hitter, and get equal value back for him. The type of trade that I envision from his argument is the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade between the Twins and the Rays, where teams exchanged young potential stars from positions of strength.

I’ll assume for the purposes of this argument that Montero will play neither left field nor catcher in the major leagues (even though that is to be seen), but could play an average 1st base.

1st base and designated hitter are not radically different positions, from a value perspective. Sure, the designated hitter gets to sit on the bench and relax for half the game, but that doesn’t take away a boatload of value. Truth is, there is a very large number of 1st basemen in the Major Leagues who can hit very well while still fielding their position. Almost to the point of non-scarcity. Case in point: Fangraphs list a -15.3 run positional adjust for Hideki Matsui, a DH, and -12.2 adjustment for Mark Teixeira, a first baseman. For comparison, Derek Jeter’s shortstop position earned him  a +6.3 positional adjustment. What does this mean? It means that Derek Jeter would have been roughly 2 wins more valuable than Hideki Matsui had they had the same offense.

So basically, the difference between 150 games of Jesus Montero at DH and 150 games of Jesus Montero at 1st is about half a win. And some studies in the past indicate that players hit better as DHs than while playing the field, so take that into account too. I don’t see how this is a big enough difference to make Montero significantly worth more to a team with a 1st base opening than to the Yankees. I’d have taken David Ortiz in his prime on my team any day, even if he doesn’t own a glove.

The second question that Steve implies I think is a little more debatable. Do the Yankees actually have an opening at the DH spot? Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez are aging, and likely going to need to spend some time at DH as their bodies begin to break down. I definitely think that there is a short-term point here: Jorge Posada’s days behind the plate are quickly coming to an end. He can still hit, but he’ll likely need some time as a designated hitter. Hopefully, Montero can split time at the two positions with him, but if he can’t, Posada will take Montero’s spot in the batting order.

Here is my response: if Montero is as advertised, Posada will have to move aside. While he’s been a fantastic hitter for the Yankees, an aging Jorge Posada will probably not hit as well as Jesus Montero has a very good chance of doing. The usual prospect caveats apply to Montero, but they apply to all prospects and should be weighed against Posada’s aging-player caveats. Posada may have to become a part time player in 2011 if he can’t hold down the position, but Montero hits. I’m fine with that – the Yankees shouldn’t make their Montero decision with only 2011 in mind.

Alex Rodriguez is a longer-term situation. If for some reason Arod can’t play 3rd base, then he’ll have to DH, which will take Montero’s spot. I have two quick thoughts: that’s a long way away, and Jesus Montero may be able to play 3rd base passably well.

The Yankees have gotten by fine for awhile without using the DH spot to rotate in older players. They’ll be fine in the future.

I agree with the central logic of Steve’s argument: the Yankees would be better off with a comparable player to Montero who happened to fit their position needs. Yes, I’d trade Jesus for Jason Heyward or Mike Stanton in a second, even though I consider them all comparable prospects. Steve suggests using the Hamilton for Vazquez trade as a model. But the real question is: is there a match for Montero? Is anyone willing to give us a top-10 prospect from a position of Yankee need who happens to need a 1st basemen? I’m not trading Montero just to get my hands on Kyle Drybak or someone. The list is pretty short to me: Desmond Jennings, Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton, Buster Posey (who would make a lot of sense really), or Neftali Perez among prospects.

Furthermore, trading for someone like Josh Johnson, or (even worse) Roy Halladay would be a mistake. Jesus Montero carries another trait that makes him more valuable to the Yankees right now than guys like Johnson or Halladay: long term cost containment. As I argue here, 6 years of Jesus Montero at a cheap price allows the Yankees to go out and sign big free agents. Without players like Montero (and Hughes, Chamberlain, Robertson, etc) who come to the Yankees in the beginning of the year, the Yankees can’t build their own personal all-star team. They can only afford so many big contracts. The alternative to cheap, effective young players are cheap, ineffective players. You replace Montero with Enrique Wilson or Tino Martinez or Francisco Cervelli. I made this argument in a post a few months ago.

For now, the Jesus Montero fits the Yankees needs. Absent a youth-for-youth trade, the Yankees should wait and see what their star prospect can do in the majors.

Related posts:

1. Jesus Montero Is A Catcher
2. Montero hopes to make catching his career
3. Baseball America’s John Manuel weighs in on Montero
4. Reality Check: Jesus Montero may very well be trade bait
5. Minor Notes: Jesus Montero Does More Stuff