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State Of Yankee Starting Pitching Depth

Posted by EJ Fagan at 7:12 pm No Responses »
Feb 122010

Not that long ago, the Yankees had more pitching depth than they could have dreamed of. The Triple-A rotation was so full that qualified pitchers had to move to Double-A, and the team even let a few go in the Rule V draft. An impressive amount of pitching has left the organization over the past two years. Off the top of my head, the Yankees have traded, let loose, or seen the (maybe temporary) demise of: Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ian Kennedy, George Kontos, Kei Igawa, Eric Hacker, Jeff Marquez, Steve White, Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSalvo and Phil Coke, while Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Alfredo Aceves sit comfortably in the major leagues.

While there’s not a ton of major league success there, that’s the nature of depth pitching. A lot of it won’t work out, so having many options is necessary to ensure a not-so-disastrous outcome if a starter goes down. I’m going to separate Yankee depth into three categories: ready now, ready potentially some time this year, ready potentially some time next year.

Ready Now

Right now, the Yankees would almost certainly go to their major league roster before their Triple-A group to fill long and short term vacancies in their rotation. The loser of the Hughes/Chamberlain competition is definitely the best option, but Chad Gaudin is no slouch. I get the sense that Alfredo Aceves will be a reliever from here on out, since the Yankees felt it necessary to carry two legitimate long relievers on their roster. Sergio Mitre is one of them, and he seems terribly out of place. Gaudin can do everything that Mitre can, but better. I don’t understand why the Yankees are holding on to Mitre, and I’m a little bit worried that they’ll feel obligated to use him as a spot starter. Uninspiring names like Jason Hirsch follow here. Hopefully, we won’t have to see any pointless veteran call ups in the rotation this year.

Regardless, the Yankees have so-so depth here. It depends on how you view Hughes or Chamberlain. Will they undergo a mid-season conversion in the case of long-term need? I think that they should but we’ll see. If all we need this season is for Gaudin or Mitre to fill a few spot starts, we’re going to win the division by a mile.

Potentially Ready This Season

Now, we dip into the Triple-A roster. Ivan Nova is already on the 40-man roster, so I’d expect him to (all else being equal) be the first call up. Nova isn’t as safe a bet as you’d like for someone in this position, but he’s got some upside, and the Yankees sure do love him. At some point, we’ll see him in the majors in 2010. Zach McAllister is next, who does not own a 40-man spot. I don’t really expect the Yankees will be at all hesitant to burn one of McAllister’s options, so he’s not far behind Nova in turns of depth. Really, we’ll probably see the guy pitching the best get the call-up.

Below the “big two” are two names that will take a little bit of development to make their season debuts. The first should be familiar to fans of this blog: Wilkins De La Rosa. De La Rosa is a converted outfielder who spent the first part of his pitching career throwing absolute gas from the left side in relief. I was probably not the only person to be surprised to see the Yankees convert him to starting, and then see him stick there. Long term, a lot of people see De La Rosa as a relief pitcher, but he was very strong in the Trenton Thunder rotation, so we’ll see. The second is Lance Pendleton, who is a less familiar name. Overcoming some major injuries in his career, Pendleton has set himself back on track with a really strong 2009 performance (149 innings, 3.14 ERA, 130/46 K/BB), and will start the season in Double-A. He’s 26 years old, so the Yankees could fast track him if he performs.

The next two to watch are Ryan Pope and Jeremy Bleich. Both are fairly healthy, talented pitchers who have some learning issues to overcome before being put into the major league pitcher. Bleich proved especially hittable last season, allowing a 6.65 ERA and 84 hits in 65 Double-A innings. The good news on Bleich is that his strikeout rate neared the magical 1 per inning mark, with 60 during that time. Ryan Pope is less talented, but slightly more established than Bleich. His full season at Double-A reminded us why Carlos Silva (his comparable) was a really bad guy for the Mariners to sign. Pope allowed a 4.78 ERA and 155 hits in 141 innings despite only 34 walks allowed.

A few more names could pop up if they have exceptional seasons. D.J. Mitchell put himself on the map last season, and will likely start the season in Double-A. George Kontos could make a late-season surgery comeback, as could Christian Garcia or Alan Horne. But really, this is the 2010 list, and it is much weaker than last season.

Potentially Ready Sometime in 2011

Here, the Yankees look to start rebuilding their solid pitching depth. 2009 standouts Adam Warren, Josh Phelps and Hector Noesi all have a lot of good things about them. Warren and Phelps join Mitchell as NCAA veterans with good enough fastballs to be be able to learn how to pitch in the major leagues, similar to guys like George Kontos, Tim Norton, and Ross Ohlendorf in the Yankees’ past. I always feel that guys like these are chronically underrated on draft day. I’m willing to bet that at least 1 of the crew pitches in the majors that year.

Andrew Brackman lurks in the background, offering so much promise despite the frustration that he causes fans. Manuel Banuelos is only going to be 19 years old, but couldn’t have pitched any better in his major league debut. He’s got enough talent to climb to the majors if the Yankees are willing to push him. Finally, Jairo Heredia, who missed all of 2008, is another guy with tons of talent and polish who will open just a few strong months away from a Double-A promotion.

Conclusion

I listed a lot of names here. Fact is: the Yankees don’t have the depth they had before. Sitting with Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy in your back pocket is a really nice place to be. The guys at the top have a lot of question marks, and below them doesn’t lie a whole lot of immediate hope. The good news is that the Yankees could very quickly put themselves in to a position to return to the lands of abundance, and that’s a real nice place to be.

There is another piece of good news: the current rotation. Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and Vazquez are one of the most exceptionally healthy top-4s in the major leagues in the past few years, and Joba Chamberlain has a pretty good health record himself. This isn’t 2007 or 2006, when the Yankees opened the season with huge question marks to answer. They shouldn’t need the depth, which affords them the luxury of time.

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Hughes' fastball confidence

Posted by Chris H. at 3:00 pm 7 Responses »
Feb 122010

In a FanHouse piece in which Frankie Piliere outlines a handful of former prospects with something to prove in 2010, Piliere cites the Yankees’ young starter/reliever, Phil Hughes. “Bullpen or no bullpen, we saw the real Hughes start to shine through in 2009,” writes the former Texas scout. Piliere attributes Hughes’ newfound success to him seeming “more aggressive and comfortable in every way” last season, as these traits allowed the 23-year old to look like a “different pitcher” on the mound when compared to the discernibly diffident version we saw in 2008. Much of this aggressiveness, notes Piliere, was derived from Hughes’ confidence in one pitch, in particular—his fastball.

In 2009, working primarily as Mariano Rivera’s setup man, Hughes’ fastball averaged 93.7 mph. In 2008, as a starter, Hughes’ velocity averaged nearly 3 mph less at 91.2 mph. The noticeable uptick in velocity can help to explain the changes in Hughes’ demeanor from 2008 to 2009 as he was simply working with more gas last year, in a relief role (he could let it “fly”), as opposed to two years ago. As stated by Piliere, Hughes had “more confidence in his fastball command,” and, obviously, it is a lot easier to believe in your fastball when you throw it harder since added velocity means not having to worry as much about your overall location or control. The numbers bare this out with regards to swing percentage. In 2008, while in the rotation, hitters only swung at 16.5% of the pitches Hughes threw outside of the zone – he throws his fastball the most, so many of those off-the-plate offerings were fastballs – whereas, in 2009, hitters swung at 25.7% of the pitches Hughes threw that were outside the strike zone. Also, hitters swung at more pitches in the zone a season ago – 69.0% compared to 64.4% in 2008 – while making less contact (82.5% in 2009 as a reliever versus 91.5% in 2008 as a starter). Thus, pitching out of the ‘pen coaxed an extra 3 mph (roughly) out of Hughes’ California-bred arm, which basically led to his now vaunted confidence and celebrated aggressiveness.

This big question, of course, is whether or not this confidence, which was so essential to the Yankees in 2009, will remain with Hughes if he is reinserted into the rotation, where he will lose the added velocity he gained last season.

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

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Which Minor Leaguers Will Impact The Yankees in 2010?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 19 Responses »
Feb 122010

Each year, USA Today creates a list of minor leaguers/rookies that all baseball fans should know and watch for in 2010. This is not a top prospect list, but is a list of the 100 players most likely to reach the majors for more than a cup of coffee, and make some sort of impact. Last year’s list included Brett Gardner, Austin Jackson, and David Robertson, with Gardner and Robertson scoring regular roles on the 2009 Yankees. This year’s list includes 2 former Yankees (Jackson and Jose Tabata), and 4 current Yankees:

52. Mark Melancon, RHP, Yankees: Next in line to continue the run of success the Yankees had last season with young pitchers setting up in front of closer Mariano Rivera, Melancon, 24, should fill one of the openings. He’s a hard thrower with a sharp-breaking curve. Groomed as a reliever since turning pro in 2006, he has bounced back well from missing 2007 after Tommy John elbow surgery.

56. Zach McAllister, RHP, Yankees: He’s a sinkerballer who induces plenty of ground balls and can pitch himself into the mix as a 22-year-old this spring. Major league bullpen work is a possibility, but McAllister would be among the first to be considered if there’s a need for a major league starter. His chances would improve if the Yankees decide to keep Phil Hughes in the bullpen.

58. Jamie Hoffmann, OF, Yankees: Hoffman, 25, is a strong defender who can play all three outfield positions, has plenty of speed and is a consistent contact hitter. That’s why the Yankees believe he someday will be an everyday player. In the meantime, Hoffman must be good enough to make the roster because he was a Rule 5 draft selection from the Dodgers and must be offered back to Los Angeles before he can be sent to the minors.

66. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees: His power is his biggest asset, but the fact that he’s a catcher and there’s no other obvious successor to Jorge Posada could have Montero, just 20, in the major leagues this season. Barring an emergency, his initial stay won’t be long because he has had only a half-season at Class AA and needs to continue developing his defensive game.

I am assuming that Ramiro Pena and Frankie Cervelli do not qualify, as both have an excellent chance to play roles on the 2010 club. I would be surprised if any of the four listed above make the club out of spring training, which would likely mean that Hoffmann will be returned to the Dodgers. Furthermore, I do not think it is likely that we see Zach McCallister at all this season, as he is at best 9th on the starting pitching depth chart and still has room for improvement at the AAA level. Montero seems to be a longshot as well, but a major injury to Jorge Posada or a late season loss of Nick Johnson could press him into MLB duty. It is unlikely, but possible, as the Yankees will certainly be tempted to use Montero for his bat should those players go down. Finally, I think Melancon has the best chance of the four to stick with the Yankees for much of the season, as he could nab the last bullpen spot out of camp and has the talent to hold onto a spot once he is given the chance.

What do you think of this list? Are there other minor leaguers that you think can have an impact on the 2010 Yankees? How about Romulo Sanchez? Ivan Nova? Kevin Russo?

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TYU Fantasy Baseball!

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 16 Responses »
Feb 122010

Hey all; I’ve put together a fantasy baseball league for the writers and readers of TYU and I’d love for you to join. Right now, E.J. and I are in and the maximum for the league is 12. The draft is currently scheduled for March 15th (Monday). It’s a league from Yahoo! and the ID# is 171636 and the password is simply “tyu” without the quotes.

The hitters’ categories are: R, RBI, HR, AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, SB%.

The pitchers’ categories are: IP, W, L, S, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, BS.

If you’re interested, join on up, we’d love to have you!

While we’re on the subject, I’d like to talk about fantasy baseball. Some people may think that Fantasy Baseball is more of a detriment to the game, that it takes people away from the “reality” of the game and puts the focus on the numbers rather than on the players. There is nothing farther from the truth in my experience. Fantasy Baseball has done a ton to help me get even more into baseball. It makes me research players and try to learn something about players and teams that aren’t the Yankees. Because of Fantasy Baseball, I watch MLB.tv to see other players perform. The game requires that the owner of the team find something out about a variety of players and get a more “global” view of Major League Baseball, instead of keeping a focus on his or her own team.

Fantasy Baseball also helped get me more into the analytical side of the game. Through Fantasy Baseball, I became more and more interested in the world of sabermetrics. Curious, I walked down that path and I’m glad that I did. Some may argue that this gets me farther away from the game, but I obviously disagree. To me, the numbers tell the story of every game in incredible detail. I can see exactly what some player did at exactly a certain time. I can match that numerical story to the one I experienced when watching, listening to, or attending the game. The numbers make the story of the game complete; they fill in the blanks. Since getting deeper and deeper into Fantasy Baseball and advanced baseball metrics, my love for the game has only grown.

Fantasy Baseball has made me a more educated fan who’s been able to experience the wonderful game of baseball from a variety of angles. It has made me become even more engrossed in my favorite sport, favorite team, and favorite players. I’d recommend it to anyone who wants to get immersed in the sport. So, please, join up and enjoy.

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Quick bits

Posted by Steve S. at 7:05 am 7 Responses »
Feb 122010

Here’s some quick news items from around the Yankee Universe:

-Jesus Montero is in camp, and working out at First Base. There were reports that he played First Base in the Venezuelan Winter league as well. Looks like the Yanks are taking him down the Victor Martinez path, and the implications of that are pretty obvious to me.

-This Johnny Damon stuff has me a bit confused from the Tigers’ standpoint. If Dombrowski signs Damon for 5-7 mil. . . .ummmm . . . .why did he trade Curtis Granderson? To get OLDER? Curtis makes 5 mil next year, so signing Johnny would wipe out any savings towards next year’s budget, and the Tiger budget has loads of salary relief after 2010. I thought the Granderson trade was a salary dump, but if Detroit signs Damon then I’ll have to revisit that. It’s possible that Dombrowski traded Grandy as part of a rebuilding program. But chances are, this is just Boras noise. If Johnny actually had a 2-14 deal on the table, he would have signed it yesterday.

-Yeah, Joba. Some things just never die, get used to it.

-Former Yankee and fan fave Kyle Farnsworth is going to get a chance to start for the Kansas City Royals. Dave Cameron likes the idea, since he’s not a typical reliever when you look at his splits. I guess it can’t hurt to try, we all know what he is currently.

-With all the speculation going on about the Mets’ finances, Ken Belson if the New York Times BATS blog has learned that the debt on Citifield has been downgraded to junk bond status. This may or may not reflect on the Mets ownership, depending on how the deal was structured and who owns the guarantor.

-Following up on the FackYouk piece on Chien Ming Wang from yesterday, here’s a good, quick response piece on Wang from BP’s Will Caroll. Due to the nature of throwing a sinker, they’re especially prone to shoulder injuries and damage to the shoulder can render them ineffective. Brandon Webb had a similar injury last year.

-Congrats go out to our buddy Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave, who will now be contributing to Fangraphs as well doing the fine pieces he pens over at River Ave and YES.

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