Who Was A Bigger Prospect, Hughes Or Joba?

When word first broke that the Yankees had acquired Javy Vazquez and that the 5th starter spot would become a competition between Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, I suggested that I would select Joba over Hughes because he has greater potential. That claim was met by dissent in some corners of the blogosphere, so I decided to do a bit of research to determine which player was a more highly regarded prospect at his peak.

Chamberlain’s peak likely came after the 2007 season, in which he flew through three levels of minor leagues and finished the season with an electric month coming out of the major league bullpen. Baseball America had Joba rated 3rd on their 2008 list of top prospects, and Keith Law had the following to say about the big righty:

Best known to big league fans as a dominant setup guy, Chamberlain is best cast as a four-pitch starter who projects as a true No. 1 starter. He has a four-pitch repertoire where all pitches project as average or better: a plus 94-98 mph four-seamer, a toxic 83-87 mph slider with good tilt and variable break, an 11/5 curveball with good depth, and a straight 81-84 mph changeup with good arm speed.

Hughes was highly regarded as well, as BA had him 4th on their 2007 list, and said that he would turn out better than Chien-Ming Wang, which likely would have put him in the ace category. BA’s John Manuel referred to him as “arguably the best pitching prospect in the minors,” with a strong fastball, a fine curve, a developing changeup, and good command.

It seemed that looking at old scouting reports would not provide an answer to this question, so I posed my query to a number of experts on Yankee prospects and prospects in general, and received responses from BA’s Jim Callis and John Manuel, RAB’s Mike Axisa, and our own EJ Fagan. Their responses are below, with EJ stating that Hughes was the better prospect while the other three coming down on Joba’s side.

Mike Axisa:

It’s a hard question to answer because their development paths were so different. I’d say that at their respective prospect peaks, Joba was better because he had a more well rounded repertoire. Still, it’s extremely close and I wouldn’t put up much of a fight if anyone disagreed with me.

Jim Callis:

Hughes and Chamberlain were both blue-chip prospects, but I think Chamberlain was a little more highly regarded because he was so dominant in relief at the end of the 2007 season.

John Manuel:

Definitely was Joba; his big year in Double-A really was as dominant as anyone has put up in their first full pro year. I know Hughes was good at that level as well, and he also was considered the top or second-best pitcher in the minors there (with Homer Bailey) for a year. But he also had two years of minor injuries in his career, and Joba had been a dominant college starter for two years without missing any time. It’s close but for me Joba was the bigger prospect.

EJ Fagan:

Without a doubt, Phil Hughes was the better prospect. Many considered Phil Hughes the top pitching prospect in baseball before the 2007 season. He had come off an absolutely dominant season in the minor leagues, where his fastball was hitting 95 throughout the whole game, his control was impeccable, and his curveball was considered the minor’s best pitch. He took a big step back after his injury (during the no-hitter) against the Texas Rangers, and really hasn’t regained his form, but make no mistake he was an enormous prospect.

Joba Chamberlain’s rise was completely unexpected. We heard some loose reports that he was throwing close to 100 in the Hawaiian Winter League, and he put up some really nice strikeout numbers, but we still had no idea what kind of prospect we were holding. He climbed all the way to the majors in his first professional season, but it came so quickly out of necessity that no one really appreciated his prospect status. Still, Hughes was better at the time. Joba was still a rookie heading into the 2008 season, so at that time I guess he was considered a better prospect.

I just want to thank all four writers for getting back to me with their opinions. It seems to me that while it was very close and a case could be made both ways, Joba Chamberlain was probably a slightly better prospect at his peak due to his variety of pitches. Now, both players have had injuries and setbacks since that point, which is par for the course for young starters, such that their previous prospect status is not entirely relevant to decisions for 2010. That said, I do think that Chamberlain still has the higher ceiling and should be the starter in 2010. For more on this debate, I urge you to read our very own Chris H.’s article on this over at i-yankees.

Related posts:

1. Neyer: Flip Joba and Hughes
2. Loser Of Joba-Hughes Battle Should Not Be In ‘Pen Forever
3. A Note About Joba: He Was Always A Starter
4. In 2010, Joba should start, Hughes should relieve
5. Scouts On Joba And Hughes