Every day can't be Old Timer's Day
John Harper of the New York Daily News has a new piece up that ties in nicely with the Johnny Damon fallout from this past week. He details the issues the Yanks have with their aging core and the need to move forward in a clear eyed, unsentimental way. The Yanks are clearly loaded as it is, and poised for a big year even without much production out of Left Field. If there’s one thing that could derail the 2010 New York Yankees, it’s age and injury in key positions. He writes:
Mariano Rivera turned 40 in November. He had another brilliant season in ’09, but he can’t go on like this forever, can he? He’s been so great for so long that any significant decline could have a devastating effect on the ballclub.
Jorge Posada turns 39 in August. His defense, always something of an issue, became a major story when he clashed with A.J. Burnett, leading Joe Girardi to sit him in the righthander’s postseason starts. With Johnson signed as a full-time DH, Posada’s health and performance behind the plate are critical.
Andy Pettitte turns 38 in June and has a history of elbow and shoulder problems. What if it all catches up with him this year?
Derek Jeter turns 36 in June, and while he enjoyed something of a renaissance season in 2009, there’s no denying he’s old for a shortstop.
Alex Rodriguez turns 35 in July, and his hip surely will continue to be a concern, if not an issue.
The point here is that, although they lost Chien-Ming Wang for the season and A-Rod for a month due to hip surgery, the Yankees were very lucky with injuries last season. Even Burnett, forever an arm injury waiting to happen, survived his first year as a Yankee without missing a start.
I couldn’t agree more. I posted a piece a few months ago explaining why I feel Posada is poised for a decline, one which could be steep and precipitous. Years of the wear and tear of everyday catching take it’s toll, and many Catchers don’t have soft landings. Especially those that don’t move off the position. I can’t build much of a statistical case as to why Andy will have a big drop off, all of his peripherals last year were consistent with recent years, with the only exception being his BB/9 rate. But at age 38 you have to wonder when that last bit of margin for error is no longer there. David Cone went from a 20 win season and a perfect game to being batting practice in what seemed to be overnight. Coming off one of his best seasons, Derek Jeter couldn’t be expected to repeat his performance at any age, much less 36. His defensive gains will be something to monitor closely as well. Mo . . . I’ve long since given up waiting for The Great Mariano to decline. I’ll believe it when it happens. At this point I’m no longer expecting him to retire, but to ascend directly into Heaven from the Yankee Stadium mound. But we’ve already got more than we as fans could have ever expected out of the ‘Core 4′ Yankees from the great late-90s championship teams, and Brian Cashman is right to make getting younger a big priority.
I completely agree with your post Steve. I also feel that the Yankees have the ability to rectify this issue somewhat. Mariano and Jeter are both FA after the year, so the Yankees should at least be thinking about who will replace them in the very near future. If the Yankees turn around and give Jeter a four year deal, they are asking for trouble. Same thing goes for Mariano Rivera. Now maybe they have an internal plan on how to replace these guys, and I totally get that it’s impossible to “replace” a legend. That said, a good business thinks years in advance. It’s foolish of the Yankees to not have a plan on who mans SS after El Capitan, regardless if this player is in the system or not. If they want to get younger while staying at the top of the standings, they better have a five year plan. Jay(Quote)
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
January 30th, 2010 at 11:08 am
Hi Jay, How near in the future do you mean with Jeter? also Mo will get a 2 year with option for a third if he wants. Mo won’t push it if he can’t perform on a top level he is not going to be embarrassed. classy man.. jeter will play until forties, same feelings with him if he can’t perform, and the money issues with both guys, what they want they will get, my feeling is they won’t ask for more than they get now… they will be quick signings..no nonsense with two of the top ten yanks ever…jeter will more when jeter wants too, most likely DH, i feel he won’t be chasing balls in LF.. bornwithpinstripes(Quote)
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Jay Reply:
January 30th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
It’s not that Jeter and Mo aren’t class act guys, but I don’t care how wealthy a man is, he doesn’t walk away with 50 million or so remaining on a deal. In Jeter’s case, if he gets a 4 year deal at the same thing he makes now, that is a 4 year, 80 million dollar deal. Now, short stops traditionally don’t increase their defensive prowess as they age. I know Jeter did last year, but I believe his season this year will be a dramatic drop off. Let’s say he has a terrible season next year (not something that can totally be ruled out for a 36 year old), do you honestly feel he would say, “I just am not playing well anymore, so I will leave 60 million on the table.” That’s insane, you take what you get. Onto the maintaining his pay, he is not worth 20 million a year anymore. Those days are gone. It’s going to be interesting to see how it works, as that could become one of the worst contracts in baseball if the Yankees aren’t careful. If he has to move off SS, his numbers would play as AT BEST a league average outfielder and not even a league average DH. That is worth 20 million?
The same thing exists for Mo, although I feel that he might have a slightly higher chance of walking away from money on a deal, but also has a higher chance of breaking down badly. Jay(Quote)
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
January 31st, 2010 at 6:37 am
Jay about your point on the skill level I total agree.. and not that they will leave in the middle of their contracts , but finish out and then retire..no jeter is not worth 20 mil.. but he is jeter..the fans go to the games in sellouts all over the country and at home to see these two guys, you can not offer them less, or a long battle over years or money, so thats why i say same salary not more, they pay for themselves,we are talking about 2 yanks that are above the game itself, like telling joe paterno your too old, retire.. when he is ready he is gone, i do not put posada in their super yankee status or place in history..his 4 year contract was his gift ,nobody would have paid him that much ,he is done ..jeter gets a five or six year deal, avg 180 hits per year,i think that brings him to 3 or 4 all time. jeter and mo get the check book and are told be kind…next up in their league and yankee place in history could be tex..but needs to finish his stay here with 500 plus HRs, and 3 WS. then,Arod we not be a yankee untouchable..no matter what numbers he puts up.. these guys Jay Mo and Jeter bring to BB not just ability , but what little kids and BB purist love about the game..class ,integrity, heart, champions… priceless.. …. bornwithpinstripes(Quote)
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Jorge started late in catching, so far he doesn’t have the bad knees or back yet. He won’t stay if he can’t perform, nor will Jeter, Mo or Andy. I see Alex milking it as long as his contract.. gfd(Quote)
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
January 30th, 2010 at 11:31 am
grd, I think andy is done as a Yank after this year , if lee is healthy ,say hello.. posada will stay until he is locked out of the club house,, or until they give him a job as coach or in the office.. he can’t play now, terrible catcher..i don’t see him quitting or telling Cash, time for me to DH, that would have been a classy thing for him to do after the WS..so long haul for posada. next year he will cry victim if they don’t have a contract waiting for him… that is just my opinion.. alex does not have to milk anything… 10 years at 300mil.. I can never see him dogging it.. bornwithpinstripes(Quote)
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Steve S. Reply:
January 30th, 2010 at 8:06 pm
Posada will N-E-V-E-R be a coach, unless Jeter is managing. And even then, it would be Bench Coach, Bullpen Coach or something like that where he doesn’t have any real responsibility or coaching responsibilities.
He’s had loads of problems with pitchers over the years, his fundamentals as a Catcher are awful, and he’s a hothead who’s could get into trouble if you give him a position of authority of any kind. Sorry, but he’s just not coaching material. Steve S.(Quote)
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
January 31st, 2010 at 6:44 am
Steve read my post again I agree, It was a knock on posada..i think outside of pettitte nobody wants him behind the plate.i said coach not Mgr. i agree , but jorge don;t with us. bornwithpinstripes(Quote)
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Jeter, Mo and A-Rod are considered by many, as outlanders, so the time table for them to step aside may be a bit different then others.
I can’t see any one of those guys playing past a decline in numbers. If I were to guess one of them that may do it…it would be Jeter, he wants to go down as the best SS, 4m hits and into the hall. Ken (O.R.)(Quote)
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
January 31st, 2010 at 6:50 am
Hi Ken, Jeter and Mo are in the HOF now.. Arod should not get their..I think jeter falls just short of 4k , third of fourth, all time the yanks do let him stretch his time for the game. bornwithpinstripes(Quote)
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I must say, I am really surprised that so many people are of the opinion that players would walk away from millions of dollars. There are 30 teams in the league, 25 players per team. How many of them walked away from money? Now think how many of them left in a nasty divorce with their team for a couple of million dollars? The Red Sox have let Pedro, Lowe, Damon, dealt Nomar, all over money. Damon seemed like the nicest guy all year, desperate to come back to the Yankees. This offseason, Damon wouldn’t even bother responding to offers from the team.
Guys, these players, for as stand up and good guys as they are, are all business men at the end of the day. Posada shopped himself to the Mets unless the Yankees went to four years. They want every million owed. Pay for future games and what they will bring to the table. If you think Cliff Lee will out perform Pettitte, then pay Lee. If you just like Andy and think that he was important to the titles won in the past, you don’t give him a ton of dough to watch him break down. Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Mo have all been great (although I HATE Posada), and they have all been paid accordingly. They are businessmen though, and will get every penny possible. Jay(Quote)
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Steve S. Reply:
January 30th, 2010 at 8:09 pm
I never begrudge a player making whatever he can. I wouldn’t want anyone telling me what I should/shouldn’t earn. Also, as Yankee fans we are the LAST people who should bitch about a player leaving for us money, half the players on our roster left other places and came here for money. Steve S.(Quote)
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
January 31st, 2010 at 10:10 pm
very true, bornwithpinstripes(Quote)
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
January 31st, 2010 at 6:54 am
posada is the abreu of catching, no contact with anyone or thing..not to walk away in the middle of a contract but when mo and jeters next contracts are up, i feel they quit.. bornwithpinstripes(Quote)
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They got younger with
Granderson replacing Damon in the OF
Johnson replacing Matsui at DH
Posada will hopefully split time with Montero in 2011 and long term, Montero or Romine should take over.
Hopefully, Hughes and/or Chamberlain will establish themselves as a quality young starter this year.
There are young bullpen arms in the organization (Robertson, Melancon)
The big issue is Jeter as there is really no high level prospect at short in the Yankee system. Matcohen(Quote)
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
January 31st, 2010 at 10:11 pm
great points bornwithpinstripes(Quote)
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for 2011, i hope they don’t let posada near a glove..just a super expensive part time DH bench player we are stuck with that fourth year,, he should have never gotten 4.. bornwithpinstripes(Quote)
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