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Brian Cashman on YES Yankee Hot Stove

Posted by Steve S. at 10:11 pm 11 Responses »
Jan 282010

Yankee GM Brian Cashman made an appearance on the YES Yankee Hot Stove show Thursday night, and had some interesting things to say about the Centerfield situation. Here’s a link to the video clip, and I transcribed his comments regarding the outfield below. They are as follows:

(5:20 mark answering a question about Granderson playing Left Field)

Cash-”Yeah, it’s possible. We feel like we have two center fielders. Two starting center fielders in our outfield situation in terms of Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson. Curtis Granderson is an all star Centerfielder, Brett Gardner, obviously his biggest tool is his field and run ability and we think he’s one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. So it’s terrific, to be in a position as we enter as season, to have two Center fielders out of the three guys, with Nick Swisher. What’s the best alignment for us? What’s our best team? Right now, it’s Granderson in Center and Gardner in Left, but if watching the games unravel, in Spring Training, we’ve talked to Curtis about it as well, if we feel that a better team exists with Curtis Granderson in Left and Gardner in Center, if that actually shows itself, you know, our job is to put the best team in the best alignment on the field, and that’s what we’ll do.” All Players are just happy to contribute. So when I talked to Curtis Granderson, and said just in theory I want to throw an idea your way ‘what if?’ His response was “I’ll do whatever is best for the team. If you think it’s best for me in Left, in Center, it doesn’t matter” to him. But right now our plan is to have him in Center, and we’ll see if the games dictate otherwise.”

I think you have your answer right there. Brett Gardner is your opening day CF. The rest of it was what he has to say right now. He can’t give the job to Gardner over all-star like Granderson, they’ll have to let Brett ‘win’ the job in Spring Training. They already know both player’s abilities, the rest of this is just for public consumption. If they weren’t already thinking along those lines, why even ask Curtis how he feels about it?

He also addresses the Johnny Damon situation, the pitching, and which off season acquisition he felt was most important. Good stuff, I’d encourage you to watch the whole 10 minute clip, if you didn’t already see it on YES.

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Towers to join the Yankees

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm 4 Responses »
Jan 282010

According to USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale, the Yankees will announce the hiring of former Padres GM, Kevin Towers, before the spring. It has long been rumored that Towers would eventually join the Yankees after his departure from San Diego, as he is a friend to that of Yankees GM, Brian Cashman, and joining the organization offers him a chance to fulfill a certain set of occupational goals and desires. In early-December, Towers told the San Diego Union-Tribune that he preferred to work with a “big market club,” one that is not as constrained with regards to spending, and that he wished to see “how you put an American League team together.” He’ll definitely get that chance in New York.

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Keith Law looks at Montero, Banuelos

Posted by Chris H. at 3:00 pm 5 Responses »
Jan 282010

Keith Law’s top 100 prospects list is finally out and the Yankees are represented by none other than Jesus Montero (C), who comes in at number 10, as well as Manny Banuelos (LHP), who rounds out the list at number 96.

Here’s Law’s take on Montero:

Montero is really a “CINO” (catcher in name only), as few people outside the Yankees organization believe the giant player — listed at 6-4, 225 pounds, although he’s bigger than that now — can stay behind the plate, even with the improvement in his throwing in 2009. Montero’s ticket to the big leagues is his bat, and his hitting style is similar to that of another big guy who spent a lot of his career at DH: Frank Thomas. Montero transfers his weight early and hits off his front foot, but he generates tremendous bat speed and is so strong that he hits and hits for power regardless of the fact that he’s on that lead foot. Behind the plate, he has arm strength and has improved his accuracy, but he’s so big that he doesn’t move quickly enough to catch in the big leagues, and his receiving has never been a strength. His bat is so far ahead of his glove anyway that it might end up making sense for the Yankees to employ him as a major league DH soon rather than wait for him to develop as a catcher, knowing that there’s a good chance the latter won’t happen.

Defensive concerns are always the shackles to which Montero is bound. If defense was not an issue – well, as Law points out, his size is actually the biggest issue – he would be much higher on the list. For instance, in Jonathan Mayo’s recent top 50 prospects list for MLB.com, Montero was surprisingly pegged at number 19 because of defensive doubts. However, being ranked as the 10th best prospect in baseball is certainly nothing to complain about.

Here’s Law’s take on Banuelos:

Banuelos and Zach McAllister are both pretty close and I could have put McAllister on the list instead, but I’ll roll the dice on Banuelos’ age and chance for a little more velocity as he matures physically. He sits 90-92 mph right now as a starter with a solid-average changeup, and a chance for both pitches to improve to above-average in time. His curveball remains his weakest offering, soft without much depth, although he has the arm speed to throw a good breaking ball; it just may turn out to be a slider or cutter instead of a true curve. He has good feel and tremendous mound presence, which helped him survive as an 18-year-old in the full-season Sally League. He’s also one of the best Mexican prospects in the minors, as the Yankees are one of the few teams to still scout Mexico aggressively for amateur talent. His ceiling is probably just a No. 3 or No. 4 starter, but given his youth and feel he’s got a good chance to get there.

Banuelos, in his first full season, worked on his curveball considerably and it seemed to improve later on in the year. “I’ve worked on grabbing the ball on the seams and so far I have made that adjustment, and my curveball has been working well,” he noted in mid-July. Banuelos is just 18, so he has a lot of time to figure out his breaking stuff.

Law goes on to rank the Yankees prospects in order:

1. Jesus Montero, C
2. Manny Banuelos, LHP
3. Zach McAllister, RHP
4. Austin Romine, C
5. Slade Heathcott, CF
6. Jose Ramirez, RHP
7. Gary Sanchez, C
8. Andrew Brackman, RHP
9. David Adams, 2B
10. JR Murphy, C

When Jesus Montero is eventually promoted, I wonder how the Yankees’ farm system, as a whole, will be ranked…

Photo via Jim McIssac/Getty Images

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More on Randy Winn

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 4 Responses »
Jan 282010

So, who exactly is the new guy? Let’s start at the beginning–kind of. Winn went to Santa Clara University and was drafted by the Marlins in the third round of the 1995 Amateur Draft. Randy did well in his first three years in the minors, never posting an OBP below .340. Then, in 1997, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays took Winn as the 58th pick in the expansion draft.

Randy Winn

It was with Tampa that Winn would make his Major League debut in 1998. He played in 109 games in that campaign, posting an uninspiring .278/.337/.376, good for an 83 OPS+. Most of his time in Tampa–1998 to 2002–was not anything special. However, in 2002, Winn made the All-Star team and finished the season with a .290/.360/.461, good for a 120 OPS+.

For that good season with the D-Rays, Winn was rewarded with a trade to the Mariners for Antonio Perez. In two and a half seasons with Seattle, Winn hit well. He had a 104 OPS+ and had a solid 76% stolen base rate. In the middle of the 2005 season, Winn was traded to the Giants for Jesse Foppert and Yorvit Torrealba.

From ’05-’09, Winn was an average player. His OPS+ was 100. However, in 2009, he was pretty bad. His OPS+ was a measly 75 and his wOBA was .302, his lowest since a .290 mark in 1999. Randy is a switch hitter who has shown no significant platoon split. His OPS vs. RHP is .765 and his OPS vs. LHP is .758. He could play in a strict platoon with Brett Gardner, but Joe Girardi needn’t feel worried about putting Winn in there against a right handed pitcher as well. Even after a putrid 2009 (which we’ll get to again in a second), his career line now sits at .286/.344/.418/.762, which is good for a 99 OPS+. In terms of wOBA, Winn is at .334 for his career which is either average or slightly below, depending on the year.

Of course, his offense is only part of the story. Winn has also spent significant time, at least 430 games, at each outfield position. His career UZR/150 for the OF is a solid 5.7. In Winn, the Yankees have a bench OF who can solidly play each position if need be.

Obviously, his awful season last year gives us pause. What was behind it? It doesn’t seem to be much of a BABIP issue, as Winn had a .314 BABIP last year. It was down from his career BABIP of .327, but a jump that small is not all that significant. The biggest batted ball difference I could find was that Winn was hitting the ball in the air more. His line drive rate was a career high 22.3%, but his ground ball rate fell to a career low 45.5% and his fly ball percentage, 32.1%, was his second highest ever and was a few points above his career average. It would seem that if Winn was able to hit more ground balls–presumably ground balls through the hole–he’d end up with more hits. I’m not a scout and I didn’t watch Winn play all that much–except maybe games Tim Lincecum was pitching–but from these numbers, I can infer that when Winn hit the ball in the air, he wasn’t driving it (1.4% HR/FB!) and that was leading to more outs.

At the plate, Winn’s discipline faltered a bit. His Out of Zone swing percentage was a career high (in a bad way) 26.8%. In fact, Winn’s swing numbers were up all over the place. His overall swing percentage was 48.6, a career high. The big problem was the fact that Winn’s contact rate was at around 81% for the second straight year, which is below his career average of around 83%.

What will it take to get those numbers trending the right way? Perhaps it will be as simple as changing lineups. By hitting towards the bottom of the potent Yankees lineup, Winn might improve. After all, he’ll likely have a good amount of men on base in front of him and the pressure won’t be on him to be a top-of-the-order-hitter. Kevin Long, the Yankee hitting coach, could also help Winn get his discipline and swing back to where it was pre-struggles-of-2009.

What can we expect from Winn in 2010? A quick glance at the projections shows us a wOBA ranging anywhere from .306 (CHONE) to .325 (Marcel). It’s likely that Winn will likely be somewhere in the middle of that. Is that okay? For a starter, no. But I doubt Winn will be a starter. If he continues to play solid defense, I can live with a lighter hitting Winn. There is, however, some hope for Winn to rebound.

Simply enough, Winn was terrible last year. There is little chance that he does that poorly again. Of course, then, the only way to go is up. In terms of numbers, let’s look at some numbers from 2002-2009 for Winn. On the left will be wOBA and on the right will be wRC+ (weighted runs created+, same scale as OPS+):

.360/124
.342/114
.339/110
.367/129
.311/86
.350/112
.351/115
.302/82

Those numbers are not spectacular, but they are definitely solid. There are two stand out years there: 2009 and 2006. They stand alone as very bad years that we wish not to see again. However of the last eight seasons, they are the only subpar seasons. While Winn doesn’t have incredible upside, it would seem that 2006 and 2009 are the outliers and Winn is, in fact, a solid player; this doesn’t mean Winn will instantly get better or perform to his past levels. He is 36 years old and it’s very possible he’s in decline. However, it’s also unlikely that he does as poorly as he did in 2006 and 2009.

When I first heard of this deal, I had a ‘WTF? Really?” moment. I wasn’t quite sure what to think of it and I wasn’t exactly happy with it. Upon brief reflection, though, I’m satisfied with this deal. $2MM is not a lot of money, especially for the Yankees. If Winn is a complete and total failure, he can be cut without much of a hit being taken. For his career, Randy Winn has essentially been an average player and the Yankees are paying him as such. It’s also clear that Winn is not being brought in to be an impact player. He is simply a role player, a bench player, a complement. If Winn can give the Yankees a season of 1.0-1.3 Wins Above Replacement, this deal will be a win (awful, awful pun) for the Bombers.

He may not be the flashiest name and he may not be the best player, but guys like Winn have an important spot on a team like the Yankees. He can spell all three outfielders when needed, his .344 career OBP shows us that he’s not an automatic out, and his cost is hardly prohibitive. So, Randy, on the off-chance you’re reading this, welcome to New York, welcome to the Bronx, and most importantly, welcome to the Yankees.

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RLYW Releases Early Projections - Yankees On Top

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Jan 282010

RLYW has been running their CAIRO projections and simulations for years, and their system has become one of the most respected in the field. Yesterday, they released their initial projected standings, and Yankees fans are going to like what they see. The standings have the Yankees lapping the field, with 102 projected wins, 8 more than the next best team (Boston). They have the Rays at 89 wins, the White Sox and Mariners winning their respective divisions, and the Phillies Cardinals, Dodgers, and Braves making the playoffs out of the NL.

While these projections are by no means perfect, they do suggest that the Yankees project to be the best team in baseball once again. They have built a team that can hit, pitch, and even catch the ball a bit, such that they have amassed enough talent to be 8 statistical games better than their closest rival. Of course, the games are played on the field, and all of these projections go out the window once the season gets started. However, I think it is fair to say that on paper, Brian Cashman has built another club that can seriously contend for a championship.

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Wrapping up Johnny Damon

Posted by Steve S. at 6:49 am 1 Response »
Jan 282010

Joel Sherman of the NY Post recaps posted an article last night that recaps what went down and what went wrong between the Yankees and the Damon/Boras camp in trying to get a deal done. He writes:

Both camps played the semantic game. Scott Boras, Damon’s agent, said yesterday the Yankees “have not made an offer to date.” Yankees GM Brian Cashman countered by saying that on Dec. 17 Boras told him Damon would “not take a penny less than $13 million [a year].”

The Yankees responded by signing Nick Johnson and a subsequent trade for Javier Vazquez left just $2 million in Hal Steinbrenner’s budget for another outfielder, too little for Damon’s liking.

“We wanted Johnny back and we are sorry he is not back,” Cashman said. “But you can’t say publicly with a straight face that we didn’t make an offer because we were told not to make an offer because we were not in the same ballpark.”

Before this round of bad feelings teemed, however, there had been recent attempts to rekindle negotiations.

In the middle of last week, Damon called Yankees officials in New York, The Post has learned. Steinbrenner was on his honeymoon. However, a top Yankees executive told Damon that if he accepted a $6 million deal with $3 million deferred that Steinbrenner could, perhaps, be convinced to approve that; though many Yankees officials remain sure that the young Boss would never budge off of $2 million.

Sherman’s take is to try to make this personal, that there were bruised egos on both sides that led to inflexibility. But to me, this is simply an example of how the Hal Steinbrenner-Brian Cashman regime is running the team, which is the larger point to be made here. Unlike his father, Hal is a hands-off owner. He sets a number and Cashman works within it. Brian would have to really go to the mat to get the number changed, and Johnny simply wasn’t important enough for Brian to take a bullet for. The Yanks had already improved upon their 09 World Series winning team this off season with the additions of Granderson, Johnson and Vasquez. They didn’t need to bust their budget for Johnny.

Fans who refused to accept this new ownership reality were engaging in wishful thinking and setting themselves up to be disappointed. This wasn’t the Mark Teixeira situation. Tex represented a clear need on the team and a sea change in the AL East, since you’d effectively be taking him away from the Red Sox at the same time. That one move was a pivotal event in last year’s off season, one that put the Yanks ahead of Boston and one that the Sox are still scrambling to recover from. Johnny Damon simply wasn’t anywhere near as important to Brian Cashman. He plays a position (poorly) that’s easy to fill, one which may already be filled as the Yanks are kicking around the Granderson in Left scenario that EJ discussed here a few weeks ago.

We could get into concepts like the marginal value of a win and where a team is on the win curve to prove why his departure is no big deal. We could discuss how smart GMs always tinker with World Series championship teams to keep them from getting complacent. But I understand that Johnny’s appeal went beyond good management principles and the stats he produced on an annual basis. Some fans really liked the Johnny on a personal level. To them, it doesn’t have anything to do with the business of running a team, which I’ll admit is mostly how I view these things. I can understand where they’re coming from, I just never had such strong feelings for him good or bad. It’s not like he was Graig Nettles, Bernie Williams or David Cone, who were all players that I had a similar reaction to upon their departure. To me, Johnny was just another one of the really good players who pass through here all the time. I wish him well wherever he lands.

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