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Why did the Yanks take Hoffmann over Raynor in the Rule 5?

Posted by Chris H. at 6:00 pm 14 Responses »
Jan 202010

In 2009, with the first pick in the Rule 5 draft, the Yankees – or should I say the Nationals – ultimately chose Jamie Hoffmann, a well-regarded defensive outfielder from the Dodgers organization. Prior to that pick, though, it was rumored by MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo that the Yankees could acquire touted outfield prospect, John Raynor, from the Marlins. The Yankees, of course, did not pick Raynor, opting for Hoffman instead and, with this post, I ask, “Why?”

Here are Jamie Hoffman’s career minor-league numbers via Baseball-Reference:

Here are John Raynor’s career minor-league numbers via Baseball-Reference:

Comparing the two is a fairly straightforward exercise. With regards to Hoffmann-over-Raynor, Hoffmann, at 25, is about eight months younger than Raynor. More substantively, however, Hoffmann’s previous two seasons in Triple-A have been very good offensively whereas Raynor’s one season in Triple-A was an extremely weak campaign. Also, furthering Hoffmann’s cause, from what I can tell, he is a better defender than Raynor, although he does not appear to be significantly better based on scouting reports for both players as well as their respective TotalZone ratings. Thus is the case for choosing Hoffmann over Raynor. He’s a bit younger (it’s barely noteworthy), has had more success at an advanced level (Triple-A), and wields a better glove, yet Raynor’s glove is still pretty good.

Now, with regards to Raynor, who was selected second in the Rule 5 by the Pirates, though Hoffmann has had more recent offensive success, Raynor’s career numbers appear to be better than Hoffmann’s. He has more power – not much more, but more – and is a more patient hitter, although, he does strike out more than Hoffmann does by a considerable margin. Raynor’s stolen base success rate (83%), as compared to Hoffmann’s (68%), suggests that the former Marlin is a better base runner and a better base stealer, as well. In fact, he has been referred to as one of the fastest players in the minor leagues by Project Prospect. Raynor, in a sense, is similar to Hoffmann in that their tools are comparable, however, if one were to select Raynor over Hoffmann, they would basically argue that he is a more well-rounded hitter – despite the poor showing in New Orleans – and is a better runner.

When considering the aforementioned pros and cons for both players, it could be a tossup, really, with regards to who seems like a better fit for the Yankees, especially if the team is merely looking for a bench outfielder. However, the Yankees’ needs this season extend beyond that. As stated by Chad Jennings, the Yankees, in part, acquired Hoffmann because they were in search of a “right-handed outfielder who could hit lefties.” But, after glancing over Hoffmann’s and Raynor’s stats, it appears as though Hoffmann does not really fit that description.

His minor-league career line against lefties is .287/.362/.390. Conversely, Raynor’s is a robust .327/.392/.475. Given that the Yankees, in preparation of losing Johnny Damon, seemingly selected Hoffman to be a right-handed outfield option to compliment Brett Gardner and even Curtis Granderson, I wonder, why didn’t they go with Raynor, instead? Granted, Raynor didn’t do much against southpaws in 2009 – .653 OPS in Triple-A – while Hoffmann mashed against them – .974 OPS – nonetheless, Raynor’s poor season and Hoffmann’s exceptional season versus left-handed pitching both appear to be aberrations with Raynor likely to rebound. And, frankly, if the Yankees actually believed in Hoffmann’s abilities against lefties, they would not entertain signing a player like Reed Johnson, as they are now.

Basically, I’m not sure why the Yankees chose Hoffmann over Raynor, who they were rumored to have interest in just prior to the Rule 5. Raynor seems like he would have been a better fit for the team given their immediate needs.

Photo via the Daily News

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Damon has "considered" retirement

Posted by Chris H. at 3:00 pm No Responses »
Jan 202010

In his latest, Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record quotes a Yankees insider who says that Johnny Damon “overplayed his hand,” which has led to his current predicament. Damon is, unsurprisingly, a man with no team, as the market for his services has been devoid of tangible suitors given his asking price (among other factors, such as age, defensive concerns, etc.). The Yankees aren’t willing to spend more than $2 million on him, the Giants utilized the last of their funds to resign the offensive powerhouse that is Bengie Molina, and, the Braves – the team Damon has been linked to the most this winter outside of the Yankees – according to Mark Bowman, are not all that interested unless the 36-year old outfielder is willing to don Atlanta’s jersey for next to nothing. So, where, then, will Damon end up?

Maybe in his Florida home, writes Klapisch, who ponders whether or not Damon could actually choose to retire before having to agree to a humbling contract with an ego-busting base salary. According to the Bergen Record reporter, “A friend of Damon’s recently said, ‘Johnny is completely in the family mode right now’ and has considered that option.” However, such an idea, as Klapisch himself notes, is “unthinkable” and thoroughly inconceivable, especially after an extremely successful 2009 campaign that ended with a World Series ring. In addition, Damon has stated that he wishes to continue playing, perhaps for another four years, and intends to reach certain career milestones during his extended tenure. Therefore, although pride is a salient and possibly obstructive issue here – such is the case, it seems, for most male athletes – I think it is more than safe to say that Damon would accept a lesser deal, maybe even with a lesser team – one that may not compete in 2010 – so as to continue his already impressive career.

As Damon himself said yesterday, regardless of his lackluster market, he will likely find a deal “somewhere.”

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

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Possible Spring Training Battles

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Jan 202010

Ramiro Pena

Heading into 2009, we were treated to multiple “battles” at Spring Training. The above pictured Ramiro Pena won a mini-battle, a skirmish if you will, to become the bench infielder/utility man when the Yankees broke camp. The two major battles were in the outfield. In center field, Brett Gardner won the starting center field job over Melky Cabrera, though he eventually lost that job after underperforming early in the season.

In right field, Nick Swisher lost out to Xavier Nady, but when Nady went down with an injury, Swisher filled in more than admirably and had a fantastic year, belting 29 home runs and posting a career high 129 OPS+.

This season, there are a few battles we should keep an eye on. Two of them, though one of them is pretty small, are on the pitching side and one of them is on the bench, and it involves Ramiro Pena once again.

Let’s start off by looking at the small-potatoes battle in the bullpen. Disclaimer: I’m assuming the loser of the fifth starter battle is placed in SWB as the sixth starter, therefore the set-up spot is open. While it is likely that they will be rather “interchangeable”–that is, either option would be fine–it’s still possible that one of Damaso Marte or David Robertson will be the primary set-up man, regardless of where the batter stands. If either pitcher can show the ability to balance his splits, he could be used more frequently. However, I’d still expect Marte to face lefties the vast majority of the time and that this “battle” will not yield much of consequence. Both are fine set-up options and I’d be more than comfortable with either one of them pitching in front of Mariano Rivera.

The Yankees’ rotation spots one through four are set: Sabathia, Burnett, Vazquez, Pettitte. The fifth spot is still, apparently, up for grabs. The two contenders are youngsters Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. Both of them have had incredible success in the bullpen, but developing them as starters is the Yankees’ plan (as it should be) so one of them will definitely have to start full time this year.

As starters, both have been nothing if not inconsistent. Regardless, they’ve both shown incredible flashes of brilliance in the rotation. If I had to predict how this battle would go right now, I’d say that it’s almost a sure thing that Joba Chamberlain will get the nod as the fifth starter. While Hughes got over 100 innings last year, Chamberlain made 30 starts and pitched a full season innings wise. Frankly stated, he’s much more prepared to start in the Majors than Hughes is. I like them both, a lot, but the truth is that unless there’s an injury, only one of them can start full time for all of 2010. The two of them still need to put some work in before they reach their potential as top-of-the-rotation-starters, but, as I said only one of them can put that work in full time. The real question is whether or not the Yankees will use the loser of the battle as the sixth starter at AAA or as a set-up option in the bullpen. For my thoughts on that, see this post.

The last battle is essentially a skirmish as well. The winner of this “fight” is not likely to have a major impact on the Yankees and if he is counted on to do so, the 2010 season is probably in a great, great deal of trouble. The only other open spot I can see–as of right now–is the utility infielder position. Last year, Ramiro Pena won the job over Angel Berroa and he performed pretty well. He OPS’d .699 and played solid defense at short and third. All in all, he did a good job as the utility guy. Why, then, would his spot be in jeopardy? Mostly because his .699 OPS is the outlier in his career. His minor league OPS is .635 and while his .287 BA in ’09 at the ML level was nice, it was largely due to a .340 BABIP. Despite his great defense, Pena’s lack of a bat could be his downfall in 2010. His in-organization combination will likely be Kevin Russo, who offers similar position flexibility, but a slightly better bat. While Russo hasn’t flashed much power in the minors, .403 SLG, his .360 OBP is nice and shows good maturity at the plate. At the plate, it’s not likely that Russo represents much of an upgrade over Pena, and Pena is the better fielder; he also has experience on his side, and I’d expect Pena to win. Despite that, I’m sure we’ll see Kevin Russo at some point in 2010.

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Cano's cutter problem

Posted by Chris H. at 11:00 am 5 Responses »
Jan 202010

It seems that being clutch isn’t the only thing Robinson Cano was the worst at in the AL a season ago.

According to FanGraphs’ pitch type value data, in 2009, Cano was also the worst player in the American League with regards to hitting a cut fastball. He saw the cutter a little over 5% of the time and was 5.6 runs below average when squaring off against the pitch. One would assume that Cano’s cutter woes stem from right-handed pitchers who jam him inside – he swings at more pitches outside of the zone than any other Yankee – so as to limit his plate coverage and send him trudging ever-so-slowly back to the dugout (after popping up to an infielder, for example).

In 2010, in order to increase his offensive efficacy, hopefully he’ll figure out the best method for attacking the pitch. It could remain a significant weakness for him throughout his career, though, as Cano seems to go after a number of pitches on the outer portion of the plate – he is constantly geared up for those – which exposes him inside.

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

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How about Gary Sheffield?

Posted by Steve S. at 7:14 am 17 Responses »
Jan 202010

OK, I know what you’re thinking. Clubhouse cancer. Malcontent. Said bad things about Joe Torre (which may actually go in his “Plus” column with the Yankee front office these days). But think about it for a minute. He’s not a bad option as a platoon partner for Gardner. He has power, hits Lefties, you could use Gardner as a late inning defensive replacement for him and Gary as a bat off the bench as a Pinch Hitter late in games. If he’s ready to accept a limited role (and I think he is) it could work.

The idea would be he adds some pop to Gardner’s speed and defense, adding up to good overall production out of LF spot for 2010. Yes, he’s bad defensively. But so was Johnny Damon and if I’m not mistaken things worked out pretty well for us last year. Despite his advanced age he has a better arm than either Damon or Gardner. If I’m an opposing manager, even at 41 years old he would still scare me enough coming off the bench that I would game plan around him. Brian Cashman has often said that a key strength of the late 90s teams were guys like Chili Davis, Darryl Strawberry  and Tim Raines coming off the bench. They were at a point in their careers where they willing to play bench roles and that he’s had enormous trouble finding veterans to play similar bench roles in recent years. Gary Sheffield could play a similar role for the 2010 Yankees.

The problem with Gary in recent years was he still thought he could play every day, was always banged up and tried to play through it. But I remember him saying last year when the Mets signed him that he knows he’s not an everyday player anymore. In respect to the ‘malcontent’ label, most of the problems he’s had with his various teams usually involved the front offices, and were almost always over contract disputes. In what may very well be his last contract, that’s no longer an issue. People forget that when he made the Torre comments, he was selling a book at the time. In the clubhouse, he’s generally well-liked wherever he’s been. Bobby Cox raved about him in his one season with the Braves and Jeter was good friends with him in his time with the Yankees, so he can’t be that bad.

For a few mil? Worst case scenario you cut him loose mid season.

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