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Law: Keep An Eye On Jose Ramirez

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 7:00 pm 9 Responses »
Jan 312010

Each year, Keith Law follows his top 100 prospects list with a list of sleepers not in the top 100 who might take large leaps in the upcoming minor league season. Last year’s list is peppered with prospects that are now highly regarded, with Arodys Vizcaino being the Yankee entrant in 2009. In 2010, the Yankee sleeper is Jose Ramirez:

Right-hander Jose Ramirez is long and loose with room to fill out, but can already run his fastball up to 95-96, locate it to his glove side and turn over a changeup. His main drawback is the lack of an average breaking ball.

Ramirez, the Short Season Pitcher of the Year, was 6th on KLaw’s top 10 Yankee prospects list, behind Montero, Banuelos, McCallister, Romine, and Heathcott. He was only 18th on John Sickels list, but Sickels did tout him as a sleeper for 2010 as well. Greg over at Pending Pinstripes has been high on Ramirez for a while now, and recently profiled the large righty:

After the 2008 season, the Yankee pitching gurus tweaked Jose Ramirez’s delivery. He now has a much easier delivery with a stronger finish. I believe he added some weight, and that also contributed to the added velocity. Towards the end of the year, he was sitting 94-95 with his fastball and topping out at 96. Right now though, his most impressive pitch is his changeup. He throws it from the same arm slot as his fastball and it is very deceiving. At times, it flashes being a plus plus pitch for Ramirez. His third pitch is a curveball that definitely needs some work, which is the one knock on Ramirez right now.

The Yankees seem to be doing a good job utilizing their financial advantage in the international talent marketplace, unearthing gems such as Vizcaino, Ramirez, and Banuelos. Unless MLB institutes an international draft, this should be a source of talent for the Yankees for many years to come.

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Girardi: Winn signed for "depth" and "competition"

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm No Responses »
Jan 312010

According to Joe Girardi, the Yankees signed Randy Winn for “depth” and “competition.”

Here’s the full quote on Winn, which basically casts him as a bench player:

“I think he can be a good player for us,” Girardi said. “I know people have talked about Randy Winn replacing Johnny Damon, and that wasn’t why we signed Randy Winn. We signed Randy Winn so we’d have depth to make sure we have depth and make sure that we have competition. If someone gets hurt, we have enough people to fill the spot. Randy Winn has been an everyday player for a long time. We’re comfortable with him in that spot.”

To me, it seems as though Girardi is demarcating a specific role for Winn, and that role seems limited. I say this because there have been some questions raised as to who will start, Gardner or Winn. He’ll help towards “competition” in the spring, but, with regards to that competition, Winn will be used to motivate Brett Gardner, who appears to be the likelier candidate to start (I believe that the final outfield configuration will be Gardner in center, Granderson in left). If Gardner fails to succeed in a starting role – assuming he is awarded a starting role – or if someone is injured in the spring, it seems, only then, will Winn be given a chance to start for the Yankees in 2010.

Of course, if Gardner has a miserable spring, for whatever reason, that could complicate things.

Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

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Joba: "Nothing is guaranteed"

Posted by Chris H. at 3:00 pm 7 Responses »
Jan 312010

Last night, via Newsday‘s Ken Davidoff, we learned from Yankees manager, Joe Girardi, that the final spot in the club’s 2010 starting rotation will be decided by a five-man contest this spring, one that features Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre. Still, given practical concerns (i.e., Hughes’ innings limit and Chamberlain’s lack thereof) as well as the important matter of a recent starting track record, it appears as though Joba Chamberlain will be in the lead for that role, at least initially, with Phil Hughes serving as the Nebraskan’s foremost competition. Chamberlain, however, does not appear to be overly concerned by the situation.

According to the NY Post‘s Mike Puma, Chamberlain, who will report to Tampa next week in order to effectively prepare for the upcoming season, will be training as a starter, because “[t]eam brass has told him to have that mindset.” When asked about the spring competition, Chamberlain stated, “I’m going to go in and understand a lot of guys are fighting for that spot. Nothing is guaranteed.” This is, of course, exactly why the Yankees have promoted the fifth spot in the team’s rotation as an up-for-grabs affair, one that will ultimately be awarded to the most effective arm in Spring Training (although I don’t think anyone truly believes that the competition is totally “open”). Chamberlain, who spent the majority of the 2009 season as a starter – he was more frustrating than brilliant – is headed to Tampa weeks in advance in order to prepare for the season and seems eager to prove himself. If you ask me, it looks as though the competition idea is already beginning to pay dividends for the Yankees.

Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

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Is Having A Large Platoon Split A Good Thing?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 8 Responses »
Jan 312010


MGL seems to think so, with the excerpt courtesy of Fangraphs:

In fact, having good overall numbers with a horrible split is a POSITIVE and not a negative! If it turns out that he is truly (true-talent wise after accounting for small sample performance) poor against LHB, then you would be able to platoon him, sit him against tough (high splits) lefties, or pinch hit for him against lefties in high leverage situations, which would provide even MORE value to his team than his overall or historical numbers would suggest!

Basically, MGL (who, for those who do not know, is Mitchel Lichtman, a leading sabermatrician) is suggesting that if you have two players with similar overall numbers, you might prefer the one with the drastic splits because you could then shape his impact through the use of a platoon or pinch hitters. While I believe this does make sense in theory, I have a hard time believing that it holds true in practice. As I am sure you expected, let us use Curtis Granderson as our example.

Curtis had terrible numbers against lefties last season, and his career numbers are not particularly pretty either. The suggestion is that you could platoon him or pinch hit for him in important situations. There are a number of issues with this suggestion. The most obvious is that I find it highly unlikely that the Yankees will do any such thing. Granderson is an All-Star player for whom the Yankees traded a number of younger players with plenty of value. It is extremely unlikely that they did so in order to have him share time with Jaime Hoffman or a Rocco Baldelli type. In fact, I would suggest that the Randy Winn signing makes it clear that they are counting on Kevin Long to help Granderson become at least adequate against lefties, as they spent their last bit of money on a player with neutral platoon splits rather than a Baldelli or Johnson to pair with Granderson. As such, a platoon is unlikely.

Furthermore, even pinch hitting for Granderson in big spots is not particularly likely. The only situation that I could see him being lifted for is if a lefty specialist enters in the 8th inning of a close game. I think Joe Girardi would be loathe to remove Grandy in the 7th inning because he would likely have another at-bat, and that at-bat would almost certainly come against a righty (as most clubs do not have two effective lefties that they would trust in important spots). Furthermore, because most closers are right-handed, there would be limited situations whereby a lefty would be on the mound against the Yankees in a game that they trailed in the 9th. Therefore, there is an extremely limited “advantage” than can be garnered through management of Granderson’s platoon split.

Finally, I think MGL glosses over the fact that there is more to the relevant players than their platoon splits. Granderson is a strong defensive player, and any platoon parter is almost certain to represent a loss of quality in the outfield. As such, it would be better to have a player with neutral splits, as this would allow you to keep his plus glove in the game no matter the situation.

I think that any way you slice it, a large platoon split is a negative when discussing a star player. While it may make sense to platoon or pinch hit for the Gabe Gross types of the world, teams with talents such as Granderson and Ryan Howard will just have to grin and bear it. It would be fantastic if the Yankees can help Granderson turn things around against lefties. If they are unable to do so, we can only hope that Joe Girardi has the backbone to do the right thing and pinch hit for Granderson against tough lefties in extremely crucial spots.

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Olney: Damon Just Kept Saying No

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 10:54 am 23 Responses »
Jan 312010


Buster Olney has an interesting account of the Johnny Damon negotiations that I am inclined to believe. He suggests that Damon was the Yankees’ Plan A in left and at the 2 slot in the lineup, but simply kept rejecting offers that were commensurate to his value at the time. There are a few relevant excerpts here, but I would like to include the caveat that Damon’s camp would likely dispute some of the details, and suggest the Yankees never actually made an offer. Keeping that in mind, here is Buster’s account of the talks:

Well, in the hours after the Granderson trade was completed, they moved to seriously engage Damon in talks, and — as reported on ESPN.com at the time — they were told over and over: If you’re going to offer a contract that represents a decrease in salary, don’t bother to make an offer. Damon, himself, told the Yankees that directly. If you want to cut my salary, talk to the hand….

They believed that Damon didn’t have offers along that the lines that Boras was talking about, but they didn’t know for sure — the Red Sox can speak to that experience, having lost out on Mark Teixeira — and the Yankees’ offer to make offers wasn’t even being entertained.

So they moved on, pursuing Nick Johnson, who had the highest on-base percentage of any free agent — and they had to move fast, because Johnson was deep into negotiations with the Giants. Johnson was the Yankees’ Plan B to Damon, and given that their Plan A wasn’t even willing to talk, they reached an agreement on a one-year, $5.5 million deal with Johnson.

It wasn’t until after word of Johnson’s impending deal broke that Damon’s side indicated a willingness to barter, and the Yankees did talk about a two-year concept — which was immediately rejected. But at that point, having reached a verbal agreement with Johnson, the team’s priorities had shifted…

Last week, Damon reached out to the Yankees, wanting to talk, and so the Yankees again re-engaged the left fielder, offering the money they had left they had under the budget that was set before the winter meetings. Even then, however, they were told that Damon had other options, including multi-year offers. They were told he wanted more than the $6 million package in salary and incentives that the Yankees were willing to pay.

This account of events sounds authentic to me, if only because it fits what we have heard about Boras and his method of negotiation. He likes to set a high bar to open negotiations, threatening to not even come to the table unless certain demands are met. In this case, that gambit likely cost his client a 2 year deal, as the Yankees decided to move on to Plan B so they could focus on adding a starting pitcher. Then, after Boras read the market again and realized he had overplayed his hand, Damon came back to the Yankees offering to take a much smaller deal than the one the Yankees had considered offering him previously. Yet instead of returning with a conciliatory attitude, Boras continued to play his “mystery team” games, and once again the Yankees moved on.

It will be interesting to see how much Damon gets from whoever signs him for 2010. It seems that Scott Boras plays a very dangerous game, making outrageous claims and spreading rumors of nonexistent offers so as to scare teams into caving on demands from a player they covet. Often, this results in his player getting an above market deal from a club that had no real competition for a player’s services (see Holliday, Matt). However, on occasion, the target club will see through Boras’ machinations and will simply refuse to budge on their offer or will move on to their next option. This leaves the client without a deal from the club that he wanted to play for, as is likely the situation in the case of Johnny Damon. Such is the risk of signing on with Scott Boras.

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The New Jersey _____?

Posted by Steve S. at 8:03 am 20 Responses »
Jan 312010

Coleen Canty of NESN posted a story last week kicking around the idea of the Rays leaving the Florida market and moving somewhere in the NY metropolitan area. She writes:

While the Rays have enjoyed success against big-market teams such as New York (Yankees), Philadelphia and Boston, their on-field success has not translated into revenue.

“There are smart people in the Major League Baseball offices wondering if there’s hope of even discussing a potential move of the Rays to New Jersey or Southern Connecticut over certain protests from the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Phillies,” writes Gammons on MLB.com.

Prior to the 2008 season, the Rays were ranked last or close to last in MLB attendance every year since 2000. The 2008 AL pennant only produced an average of 6,000 more fans per game at Tropicana Field. The less-than-stellar increase still tethers Tampa Bay to the bottom of the MLB attendance report.

First things first. If the Rays move to New Jersey, they’ll have to change their name. Last time I checked, there are no Devil Rays swimming the channels of Perth Amboy. They would need to change it to something synonymous with New Jersey, something that reflects the state and the people who live there.

Any ideas?

PECOTA: Adjusted Standings

Posted by Chris H. at 2:45 pm 9 Responses »
Jan 302010

The other day, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projected standings for 2010 and, needless to say, Yankee fans were not pleased to see their beloved Bombers penciled in for third place (despite an impressive 93-69 record). However, as SG at Replacement Level Yankee pointed out upon PECOTA’s release, the numbers involved to construct the standings were off (an issue of human error, it seems, on Baseball Prospectus’ part). Realizing their mistake, BP has issued the according adjustments (h/t to RAB) and, consequently, we now have altered projections.

Here’s the original, for comparison’s sake:

Now, here are PECOTA’s adjusted numbers:

Clearly, there are some dramatic differences here with regards to team placement. The Yankees are still on track to own a 93-69 record, however, that’s good enough to win the AL East (although PECOTA projects a tie with Boston). Notice that the runs scored/allowed numbers are markedly depressed across the board when viewed relative to the earlier projections. The Rays are subsequently in third place now, rather than first, as they seemed to be the biggest beneficiary of BP’s earlier mathematical wrinkles. While the games must still be played, I think these projections display just how difficult the American League East is and will be in 2010 (it contains the three best AL teams).

Screenshots via BP

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The Yanks Want to Get Younger

Posted by Steve S. at 8:36 am 17 Responses »
Jan 302010

Every day can't be Old Timer's Day

John Harper of the New York Daily News has a new piece up that ties in nicely with the Johnny Damon fallout from this past week. He details the issues the Yanks have with their aging core and the need to move forward in a clear eyed, unsentimental way. The Yanks are clearly loaded as it is, and poised for a big year even without much production out of Left Field. If there’s one thing that could derail the 2010 New York Yankees, it’s age and injury in key positions. He writes:

Mariano Rivera turned 40 in November. He had another brilliant season in ’09, but he can’t go on like this forever, can he? He’s been so great for so long that any significant decline could have a devastating effect on the ballclub.

Jorge Posada turns 39 in August. His defense, always something of an issue, became a major story when he clashed with A.J. Burnett, leading Joe Girardi to sit him in the righthander’s postseason starts. With Johnson signed as a full-time DH, Posada’s health and performance behind the plate are critical.

Andy Pettitte turns 38 in June and has a history of elbow and shoulder problems. What if it all catches up with him this year?

Derek Jeter turns 36 in June, and while he enjoyed something of a renaissance season in 2009, there’s no denying he’s old for a shortstop.

Alex Rodriguez turns 35 in July, and his hip surely will continue to be a concern, if not an issue.

The point here is that, although they lost Chien-Ming Wang for the season and A-Rod for a month due to hip surgery, the Yankees were very lucky with injuries last season. Even Burnett, forever an arm injury waiting to happen, survived his first year as a Yankee without missing a start.

I couldn’t agree more. I posted a piece a few months ago explaining why I feel Posada is poised for a decline, one which could be steep and precipitous. Years of the wear and tear of everyday catching take it’s toll, and many Catchers don’t have soft landings. Especially those that don’t move off the position. I can’t build much of a statistical case as to why Andy will have a big drop off, all of his peripherals last year were consistent with recent years, with the only exception being his BB/9 rate. But at age 38 you have to wonder when that last bit of margin for error is no longer there. David Cone went from a 20 win season and a perfect game to being batting practice in what seemed to be overnight. Coming off one of his best seasons, Derek Jeter couldn’t be expected to repeat his performance at any age, much less 36. His defensive gains will be something to monitor closely as well. Mo . . . I’ve long since given up waiting for The Great Mariano to decline. I’ll believe it when it happens. At this point I’m no longer expecting him to retire, but to ascend directly into Heaven from the Yankee Stadium mound. But we’ve already got more than we as fans could have ever expected out of the ‘Core 4′ Yankees from the great late-90s championship teams, and Brian Cashman is right to make getting younger a big priority.

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Some thoughts on the Winn signing

Posted by Chris H. at 3:00 pm 23 Responses »
Jan 292010

On Wednesday, in a move that will draw the ire of fans well into the regular season, the Yankees signed the 35-year old Randy Winn to a one-year deal worth $2 million. Now, while I do not despise the addition – Winn will rebound (to some degree) after a poor 2009 campaign, in which his .314 BABIP was somewhat lower than his career norm (about .330) despite posting the highest line drive percentage of his career (22.3%) and, to his credit, he did battle some nagging albeit minor lower half injures (to his right knee and right foot) – however, when you think of the Yankees current macro and micro-level needs, and factor in roster space, the signing seems somewhat strange to me.

The Yankees did not need simply another outfielder as they already have Jamie Hoffmann in tow, rather, they needed an outfielder who could hit left-handed pitching well enough to justify pairing he and Brett Gardner together in a semi-platoon of sorts (and one that can also sub in for Curtis Granderson on some days). In his long career, Winn, a switch-hitter, holds a .280/.332/.426 triple slash line against lefties. That’s not bad at all, but you could do better for a platoon, right? The Yankees seemingly know this, which is why we have heard reports that they will still pursue a right-handed outfield bat – Rocco Baldelli, Marcus Thames, etc. – but only on a minor-league deal, allowing that player to compete for a roster spot in the spring. However, the problem is, the team’s bench ideally features four position players and the Yankees cannot wastefully retain three outfielders (Winn, Hoffmann, TBA). What will likely occur is that the organization will send Jamie Hoffmann back to the Dodgers in the spring as this then allows Winn, with his gifted glove, good speed, switch-hitting bat, and veteran presence, to take over as the team’s primary reserve outfielder. His tools seem more valuable than whatever Hoffmann can contribute. By doing this, we would see a bench of Winn, TBA, Pena, and Cervelli, and Wednesday’s signing will go from making some sense, to a lot of sense.

So, as of right now, the Winn signing, because it did not address the team’s particular needs, not because it precludes the team from signing Johnny Damon (that’s not the issue), is a peculiar one. If the Yankees add an actual right-handed bat – Jon Heyman thinks Marcus Thames’ history with NY could be an attractive selling point – and return Hoffmann to Los Angeles, I think the move will look a lot better. Until then, though, I won’t get the addition.

Photo by Getty Images

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Bench Seems Set

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 8 Responses »
Jan 292010

With yesterday’s acquisition of Randy Winn, the Yankees’ bench seems to be set. Let’s examine the implications this could have for the 2010 team.

First off, the fact that Johnny Damon is not returning should give current left fielder Brett Gardner a big confidence boost. By not re-signing Damon, instead opting for a cheaper player who isn’t likely to take a starting job from the “incumbent” Gardner, the Yankees are telling the young outfielder that they believe he can hold the position competently. I don’t have much faith in Gardner getting much better than he was in 2009, but there is still room to grow. With plus defense, a decent OBP (.340-.350?), and his speed, Gardner could be a net positive in left field for the Yankees.

Next we come to the “order of operations,” if you will (excuse me, I’m interning at a middle school and doing a little bit of work in math classes) for the outfield. Barring anything unforeseen between now and the beginning of the season, the regular OF alignment will be Gardner–Granderson–Swisher. Defensively, this outfield is pretty solid. Offensively, two-thirds of it is above average. The first man off the bench will obviously be Winn. As I discussed last night, he’s a good option at each of the outfield positions and can at least handle himself at the plate. Signing another bench outfielder will likely have a double-edged-sword type of effect on Rule V pick Jamie Hoffmann.

On the one hand, it will allow Hoffmann to develop at a slower pace. He will no longer be the first option off the bench, nor will he be an injury away from being a full time starter. On the other hand, though, it does mean fewer at bats for Hoffmann and the only way to grow as a major leaguer is with consistent trips the plate.

Frankie Cervelli will assume the back-up catcher’s duties and I don’t think we should expect anything from him that we didn’t expect frohttp://www.theyankeeu.com/wp-admin/post-new.phpm Jose Molina. Cervelli will likely bring a relatively weak bat to the plate, but should play above average defense behind the plate. I wonder, though, if he’ll be paired with any one pitcher. Perhaps Joe Girardi will pair Cervelli with A.J. Burnett as he did with the latter and Jose Molina in 2009. Another route that could be taken is pairing Joba Chamberlain with Cervelli. It seems as though Posada and Chamberlain never really got themselves on the same page, so maybe Joba would work better with Cervelli.

The last spot is the utility infielder’s spot which will most likely be either Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo. If it’s Pena, I’ll expect the same thing as Cervelli: good defense with an almost anemic bat. If it’s Russo, I’d expect a little more of the bat with a little less defense.

So, as of now, I’m willing to bet that the Yankee bench will be made up of outfielders Randy Winn and Jamie Hoffmann, with Francisco Cervelli doing the back up catching, and one of Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo playing all over the infield; let’s also not forget that Nick Johnson and/or Nick Swisher could play first base in a pinch. This bench may not have a ton of power, but it’s versatile and the parts are more or less replaceable if they do not perform.

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