Buried within Jon Heyman’s (SI) latest writeup on the Roy Halladay trade, we find the following item regarding Yankee super prospect, Jesus Montero. According to Heyman, for Toronto’s 32-year old ace, “[i]ndications are the Yankees offered a package that included top catching prospect Jesus Montero as the centerpiece.” With this information in hand, one can then assume that a deal wasn’t reached with Toronto because the Yankees were likely hesitant to offer either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes, along with Montero (who the Blue Jays reportedly coveted). While we can certainly debate the Yankees’ continued commitment to retaining Hughes and Chamberlain (again), the team’s alleged willingness to include Montero, their most touted hitting prospect, in a deal for Halladay is much more interesting.
The main source of intrigue revolves around the Yankees’ long-term evaluation of the 20-year old Montero as a catcher in the Majors. As stated by Patrick Teale of Scout.com, although “Montero gets unfairly knocked for his defensive game when he has the basic foundations to be more than a serviceable big league catcher someday,” there are some red flags concerning his mobility behind the dish. “He is so big,” notes Teale, “his flexibility and agility aren’t up to par with other defenders and that could be a problem long-term.” This, then, the possibility of outgrowing his current position, is a significant concern for the Yankees, as Montero’s value — particularly his boundless potential as a powerful RBI producer — is intimately tied to his role as a catcher (like center field, it is a premium position). If Montero is projected to be nothing more than a first baseman — we don’t need one of those, obviously — or a designated hitter, which is often very accessible via free agency, then his value to the organization would reduce dramatically.
Perhaps the Yankees think that this outcome is the likelier scenario, explaining why the club would be willing to include the formerly untouchable Montero in a prospect-driven package for the right-handed Halladay. If Montero cannot be the Yankees’ future catcher or first baseman due to both defensive and contractual issues, then, presumably, the Yankees would be more inclined to make him available, especially for a pitcher of Halladay’s caliber (though I think it’s best for the team to employ the “wait and see” approach with regards to Montero’s catching). This appears to be the only explanation as to why the Yankees would actually trade their organization’s acclaimed catching prospect.
That and the fact that Roy Halladay is an extremely good pitcher, of course (and to get, one has to give).
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I appreciate lots of posts and updates and speculation, but I have to say that while the Yankees most certainly are concerned w/ Montero’s future as a catcher, regardless of whether Montero is the catcher of the future you trade him for Halladay. Halladay in our rotation would have made the Yankees the favorites for 2010-2012. With the team built to win now you have to sacrifice a potential future game changer for a certain current one. I think Toronto only stalled because they wanted Halladay out of the AL East, or AL all together and that’s precisely what they got.
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As an important caveat here, note Heyman’s language: “[i]ndications are the Yankees offered a package.” We have no independent verification that this is true, so take it with a grain of salt. Heyman has been wrong before. It could be that Toronto asked for Montero and Cashman smiled and said, “We’ll think about it.” Possibly he never intended to make the deal but wanted Montero’s name out there to force other teams to up their offers or discourage some from bidding at all.
With that important caution, the Yankees know better than we do what they have in Montero, including his limitations. If they have decided he is not the long-term answer behind the plate and Romine, Sanchez, or Murphy project as more viable solutions (or Mauer, should he become available), then the question becomes one of how to maximize Montero’s value to the organization. He clearly has no future here at first base; the value of a DH is limited; and they may not think he can transition to the outfield. If they reach such an assessment, then the question is how and when best to take advantage of the market for Montero.
The “when” part of this is interesting. Montero may be at his peak value now, since he is close to the majors but his defensive limitations have yet to be exposed. Some teams may still covet him as a catcher, while others see him at first. The risk in dealing him is that his value could still rise. Suppose next fall the Marlins opt to deal Josh Johnson or another stud pitcher becomes available. If Montero has a big 2010, then he could be the centerpiece of a major deal that would benefit the Yankees for years. On the other hand, the risk of NOT dealing him this winter is that his value could slide. He may field poorly, recover slowly from the wrist injury, etc. In that case, the team loses by holding onto him too long.
This is the call that Cashman and the organization have to make. It certainly isn’t an easy one. But so long as they do not surrender Montero for an aging player whose talent is in obvious decline (the M.O. of the organization inthe 1980s, for those who care to remember the likes of Fred McGriff), I would be hard put to second guess them.
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Chris H. Reply:
December 16th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
Good points all around, Scout.
It is very true that in terms of trade value, Montero may be at his apex.
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Or maybe Heyman was wrong.
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Chris H. Reply:
December 16th, 2009 at 6:54 pm
His track record has been good this winter.
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ALways made sense to me.Montero is a great, great, hitting prospect, suspect catching prospect and he’s so slow, he’d be a liability anywhere lese on the field except 1st base.
Problematic for a team that has Romine, JR Murphy, Higiashioka, Gary Sanchez and some others behind him.
Yankees could has played in and possibly won 2-3 more WS, maybe 4 with CC, Burnett (Pettite this season while the youngsters developed) and Halladay.By then the other Yankee catching prospects could be or would be more than ready.
Now I’d say Red Sox have the better pitching staff and arguably as good hitting depending how it all pans out.
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Montero is to valuable to be given or traded away even with his lack of mobility. He is still young and has room to develop into a everyday catcher. Montero can see some time in left field making Damon invaluable.
Give him time to develop his flaws in the minors. The Yankees will reap for what they sow in Montero.
His power numbers are there. Just need to develop the rest.
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Yankee stadium LF is very tough to play and requires legs.One would assume he can throw though.
Personally, I refuse to believe Yankees, even with their stories about how important catching is draft-wise, would have spent the money on both JR Murphy and Gary Sanchez this past year, already sitting on Romine, if they truly believed Montero was the catcher of the future.
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The other issue raised by the posting and comments is what kind of deal makes sense when considering whether to include Montero. Several weeks back, TYU ran a post on who we might trade Montero for. The thrust of that conversation was that he should be exchanged for an important younger player rather than a Halladay type. I lean in this direction, too.
Are the Yankees built to win now and for the next couple of years? Certainly. The issue is whether it makes sense to load up for short-term success in the hope of winning another couple of championships before the window closes on the current core of players and rebuilding becomes necessary. Or shold the Yankees be trying to extend that window?
A deal for Halladay clearly falls into the former category. Acquire another number one or one-A starter and the team is set up for both regular season and post-season success for the next, say, three years. At that point, Mo is done, Posada is done, and Jeter is done or close to it. A-Rod is probably on the downside, too, as is Burnett and perhaps C.C. Tex should still be at the top of his game, but we do not know yet whether Hughes or Chamberlain will ever step up to fill key roles. I have my doubts about Cano, too, though he is a quality player.
The alternative is to seek to deal Montero and others for younger, emerging stars who will become too expensive to their current teams. I mentioned Josh Johnson as one such player; Justin Verlander might be another, given the state of the economy around Detroit; and a number of others were mentioned in the earlier TYU exchange about potential trade targets.
I would like to see Cashman aiming at this second kind of deal, which has the potential of holding open the window for winning titles beyond two or three years. (As an aside, when the Red Sox look to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, they are doing the same thing.) Admittedly, the price would be steeper, and might involve packaging more prospects or players such as Hughes who have yet to demonstrate they can fill the role of front-line major league stars. But the pay-off over time seems higher.
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Not sure I agree.The likes of Jeter & Mariano may never be seen again in Yankee stadium, they are true HOF’ers who started with and will finish their careers with the Yankees.
Winning 2 more times with them, maybe 3 more, would be well worth the loss of Montero and a few middling prospects.
I’d argue the acquisition of Granderson was more of a luxury item than another great starting pitcher would have been though obviously there is the money concern with Hallady.
YANKEES farm system appears loaded at the lowest levels and those players will be ready or trade bait in 3 years when the team really starts to get old.
Additionally, if Montero is JUST a hitter, that type is easily acquired with the YAnkees money, no problem.WIll he really hit much better than the catcher/1st baseman that the Red Sox acquired last season? history suggests probably not.
WHat fans and Yankees management need to understand is the difference between spending money on guys like Giambi, flawed players and on guys like Teixiera, a switch hitter who can field and play baseball.
If MOntero were a true catcher, i would never give him up, like I would never want to give up Jeter or TEX but if Montero is just a hitter, not a catcher, he’s no big deal and the chance of winning back to back or 3-peat with this group would far outweigh his loss.
One last thing.
What if baseball does go to a total sharing of revenue and Yanks lose the money edge?
I think looking back, 2-3 more WS would then look very, very good as compared to the loss of a big hitter who has no real position.JMHO.
Let’s get Sheets now and hope he stays healthy and pitches like Halladay and it’s all moot.
Let’s get Aroydis Chapman also.I don’t buy he’s a huge risk, not at all.He’s 1.5 seasons away from coming up and being an instant big time starter.Everybody loves his delivery and Cuban players often have a great baseball sense and work ethic, having learned baseball correctly back home as kids.
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EJ Fagan Reply:
December 16th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
Lefty – Here’s the thing, Montero has a good chance to be someone like Victor Martinez (or, frankly, better. BA doesn’t throw out 80/80 hit/power very often), but for no cost. The argument against trading him is that we can have Montero AND Matt Holliday or whomever for the cost of someone like Roy Halladay.
The Yankees can’t pay 20 million for every spot on their roster. They need really good young players to balance out the expensive free agents.
Sources from the Yankees and BA also strongly believe that he’s a catcher for now. His defense is now considered passable, a huge improvement over past years. We’re hearing the same types of things about Montero’s defense that people said about Posada for the longest time.
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Posada has been a huge liability.Few have enjoyed throwing to him.I’m not down on Montero, far from it, just question whether or not he can catch the way Yankees keep signing catchers.2 high end catchers just last season.
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Speaking of catchers, any word on interest in Jose Molina? Is he out of baseball?
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Molina is working for Subway sandwich co. He will attempt to reinvent and emulate “Jared” and his brilliant career there.
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