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Why I'm Not So Sure About Gardner

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:15 pm 9 Responses »
Dec 212009

Over the last few days, you have read some well researched and cogently argued articles suggesting that Brett Gardner should start for the Yankees this season, and may actually be more valuable than a one dimensional player such as Jason Bay. I would like to spend a few minutes challenging that assertion. Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues has already touched upon some of the issues I would like to discuss, and I recommend his article highly.

    The Sample Is Too Small

I would like to start by touching upon the defensive numbers. While Gardner grades out well in practically every defensive metric available, he has spent a total of 934.2 innings manning a major league outfield, spread over 138 games and 95 starts. Most defensive metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt until a sample as large as 3 seasons has been built up. Making comparative judgments about Gardner’s defense at this point is akin to reaching a conclusion about a player’s offense at the end of May. I think that it is fair to say at this point that Gardner’s defense is above average, but projecting him to be one of the best at his position in all of baseball is a misuse of metrics that are simply not equipped to support that sort of conclusion.

In regard to offense, again, the sample is 425 plate appearances, in which Gardner put up a .270/.345/.379 line. It is important to note that Gardner only started 63 games, and only faced lefties in 22% of his at-bats (27% of pitchers are lefthanders). To me, this suggests that Gardner had his spots picked for him, allowing his weaknesses to be minimized. I am not saying that he cannot improve upon his 2009 line. But I do think that it is hard to assume a natural progression from 2009 to 2010 should he be placed into an everyday role.

    The Scouting Report

I know that I am typically a “numbers guy,” so I feel a bit uncomfortable reporting upon what I see, because as we all know, sometimes your eyes show you what you want to see. However, I think that any Yankee who watched the club daily will likely agree with most of the assertions I am about to make.

1) Gardner hits the ball in the air too often for a “speed guy.” His career GB/FB ratio is 1.45, which seems fairly high but in actuality needs to be a lot higher for a slap hitter with little power. A player who pops up 13% of his fly balls in the infield and beats out 16% of his groundballs in the infield needs to be hitting the ball on the ground a lot more (I just want to note that the small sample size issue remains relevant here as well. I am using the numbers to support my scouting report, but they do need to be taken with a grain of salt).

2) Gardner does not like to swing the bat. I think some of his walk rate is artificial because he often just keeps the bat on his shoulders. If the pitcher throws strikes, Gardner is almost certain to be in a tough count, and as pitchers learn this, he will walk less frequently. I do believe the numbers support this, as Gardner swings at a scant 35.4 % of pitches. As a point of reference, only 4 qualifying hitters swung less frequently than Gardner in 2009, and those hitters swung at pitches outside the zone less frequently than Gardner. Gardner also saw the most first pitch strikes of anyone in the top 10. Are these numbers definitive? Certainly not. But they do hint towards my suggestion: Gardner has more plate patience than he has discipline. As a fairly weak hitter who cannot make pitchers pay when they groove one over, Gardner may begin to see a ton of strikes early in the count. If that means he will trade some walks for hits, that would be fine. But if some of those walks begin turning into outs, Brett will lose some value.

3) Gardner does not make great reads in the outfield. He is incredibly fast and gets to some balls quicker than any player in baseball. His speed coming in also helps his arm play up. But he often finds himself taking meandering routes to balls, and does not seem very instinctual out there. I think his speed means that he will never be anything less than an above average outfielder, but his instincts may prevent him from becoming elite defensively.

Well, that is my case. I do not dislike Gardner and think he could be a starter for a lesser club. I am just not quite certain that he should be anything more than a 4th outfielder for the Yankees. At some point over the next few days, I’ll discuss Melky Cabrera and whether he could be sufficient in left field this season.

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Yanks check in on Zambrano

Posted by Chris H. at 3:44 pm 5 Responses »
Dec 212009

According to Mike Puma of the NY Post, “[w]ith his everyday lineup for 2010 set, Cashman has turned attention to the rotation, and will almost certainly add a starter by New Year’s, according to a major league source.” The fact that Brian Cashman is looking for an additional starter is, of course, no surprise given the GM’s own recent admission. However, Puma does provide fans with a tangible deadline for such an addition, which is certainly new information.

Furthermore, while Puma outlines the usual suspects from this year’s current crop of free agents (e.g., Ben Sheets, Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro), citing them as options for the Yankees, he first tosses another name into the ring as well, one that is only acquirable via trade. According to Puma, Brian Cashman “is believed to have inquired about Carlos Zambrano,” the fiery right-hander from the Chicago Cubs. However, adds Puma, the Cubs’ asking price for Zambrano was too high, which is why the Yankees will, instead, pursue one of the current free agents available this winter.

Now, if we momentarily assume Puma’s report is correct with regards to the 28-year old Zambrano, I’m not quite sure why Brian Cashman would have any interest in the righty. He has been injury-prone for the past two seasons and could earn $73 million over the next four years (he would receive close to $18 million in 2010 through 2013). Plus, Big Z basically stopped being a top starting pitcher about three years ago. Since then, his peripherals have become questionable and his velocity has decreased. He does not seem like the type of player the Yankees would want to acquire. To be fair to Puma, he basically says as much, stating that a free agent signing is the likelier route.

If the Yankees add an extra arm by the end of the year, it will probably be in the form of a Ben Sheets or Justin Duchscherer, rather than a Carlos Zambrano or Derek Lowe. The Yankees could have some difficulty adhering to their own deadline, though, as starters appear to be employing a patient approach this winter.

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

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Breaking down the Curtis Granderson trade

Posted by Steve S. at 7:02 am 1 Response »
Dec 212009

Mark Carig of NJ.com (The Newark Star-Ledger) has a new piece up where he interviews someone who chose to be anonymous but “worked in the statistical analysis department of a major league club”. Maybe it’s someone who worked for the Yanks and is now with another team, so therefore chose to withhold his name. In any case, the mystery analyst breaks down the Granderson deal to the Yanks, and does a good job addressing some of the concerns fans have raised about his game. He writes:

What a deal.

Last week, the Yankees managed to upgrade one of their few weak spots in 2009, and did so without giving up anything they will miss. Sure, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Ian Kennedy have value, but Coke and Kennedy are easily replaceable, while Granderson is essentially a best-case scenario for what Austin Jackson could become.

Agreed. They were able to make this deal from a position of strength. This was one of the reasons why Cashman was so hesitant to make the Johan Santana deal, the farm system wasn’t at a point where they could deal off excess. None of the players would likely have played a significant role on the 2010 Yanks, and the one who would have made the 25-man roster in Phil Coke has ‘cup of coffee in the bigs’ written all over him. Won’t miss any of them, though I’m still an IPK fan and will be following his career out west with the D-Backs.

Granderson, 29, has played in the major leagues for long enough that we have a good handle on what he is: an-above average defender who can hit right handed pitching. Granderson’s UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) per 150 defensive games is +5 runs in over 660 career games. This is a significant upgrade over Melky Cabrera, who’s UZR/150 is -6 runs in 361 career games. In statistical analysis, 10 runs is equivalent to approximately one win, meaning that switching from Cabrera to Granderson in center field is likely worth approximately one win. That may not sound like a lot, but remember: we are only evaluating their defensive prowess, and a one-win defensive upgrade is huge.

Agreed, although as EJ argued yesterday Gardner would be an even bigger defensive upgrade and would allow you to play Granderson in Left. That would be your strongest defensive Outfield, but there are still many questions about how Gardner’s bat will translate in the bigs. No pop and bad contact rates often don’t mix in the big leagues, so the Yanks are right to move slowly with Brett. However, when comparing Brett to Melky, neither one is overly exciting with the bat so Girardi will likely play whoever is hot. Which is the smart move.

Granderson’s platoon split is well known, but his home/road splits are less known. Granderson has hit .261/.334/.451 in Comerica Park, and .284/.353/.516 on the road. The new Yankee Stadium presents an interesting challenge for Granderson: in 2009 (an admittedly small sample size), Yankee Stadium was the easiest ballpark to hit home runs in (as Johnny Damon can attest to), but depressed both doubles and triples. Granderson excels in hitting triples, totaling 55 in the last four years. Playing in Yankee Stadium will likely depress his triples, but could help him improve his home run total.

I never worry much about Triples, which are among the flukiest of stats in baseball (Side note-It was a running joke on the 1977 Yankees that the slow-footed 3B Graig Nettles led the AL in Triples for the first few months of the year) but clearly getting out of Comerica Park should help Curtis dramatically. He adds:

Although Granderson’s batting average slumped to .249 in 2009, his walk and strikeout rates remained the same. It appears that the primary cause of this low batting average for a low batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Granderson’s BABIP in 2009 was .277, much lower than his career .323 BABIP. If his BABIP rebounds in 2010, his batting average should as well.

One interesting note about Granderson is that in 2009 he hit far more fly balls than he ever had before. It’s possible that his 49% fly ball rate was a fluke – his career rate is 43% and his fly ball rate has fluctuated from year to year – but if he can maintain this fly ball rate, it should serve him very well in Yankee Stadium. Remember, 17 of the 24 homers swatted by fellow left handed batter Johnny Damon came in Yankee Stadium.

Right, this is why I felt its a no-lose for the Yanks. If he reverts to his pre-2009 approach at the plate, he should fare better against Lefties. If not, he figures to hit plenty of HR’s at YSIII. Win-win for the Yanks. On his point about BABIP, some of that may be luck and some may be due to his HR-happy approach at the plate, pulling off the outside pitch more often and making poor contact as a result. Again nothing that can’t be fixed, if needed.

Granderson’s primary weakness is his inability to hit lefties. Therefore, it makes sense for the Yankees to pair him with another outfielder who can hit lefties – a skillset that should not be overly difficult to find. Jamie Hoffman, the Yanks’ Rule V pick, may fit the bill, having just posted a .974 OPS against lefties in 2009 (don’t get too excited, however – his career OPS against lefties is only .752).

I would add former Yankee Shelly Duncan killed Lefties as well. Guys who can play the outfield and kill Lefties are a dime a dozen. It’s not the type of thing that would hold back a deal or that a team should be overly concerned about. I love this deal for the Yanks, Cashman bought low on an asset that would have cost him double had he tried to acquire him in 08 or 07. I’ll take those road numbers and be happy, but I suspect Yankee Stadium and his swing will be a perfect marriage.

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