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Chapman impresses in audition

Posted by Steve S. at 10:40 pm 16 Responses »
Dec 152009

As I mentioned on Sunday, Tuesday was a big day for Aroldis Chapman. He had a workout scheduled in front of an impressive list of many prospective suitors, and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that all went well. He writes:

For the dozens of baseball men wondering whether Aroldis Chapman’s official unveiling was worth the trip, the left-hander had an emphatic, 97-mph answer with his final pitch.

Sure was.

Executives and scouts came out of Tuesday’s 30-or-so-pitch bullpen session in Houston raving about the 21-year-old who defected from Cuba in July and will command big dollars on the free-agent market.

Just how much money depends on how Chapman’s new agents, Randy and Alan Hendricks, can intensify the bidding. At least 15 teams had officials at the workout, according to two sources who were present, and everyone came away impressed that the 6-foot-4 Chapman sat around 93 mph with his fastball despite not throwing with maximum effort and ramped up with his last throw.

This is a good first step, but I’d advise a word of caution. There was no umpire reported to be behind the plate, no batters in the batters box. He still hasn’t faced any live batters in the states, and the level of competition he faced in the international events was generally considered to be fairly low. This was just a bullpen session, and we see MLB pitchers look great in bullpen warm ups who go out and get clobbered all the time. All that this really tells us that he’s not hurt and that the raw skills are still there, but little else. He may still have much to learn about pitching, holding runners, fielding his position and the issues surrounding his control and make-up in real game situations have yet to be answered. Even if he signed tomorrow, expect him to be sent to the minors and work his way up. But so far, so good. He passed the first test with flying colors.

At the same time, I don’t want to sound like I’m pouring cold water on him. His upside is enormous, he may possess once in a generation type talent. Ed Price from MLB Fanhouse leaves us with this tantalizing quote:

With a high waist, lean body and long arms, Chapman has a unique look, the person said.

“Usually guys throw 10 pitches,” he said, “and you say, ‘He reminds me of …’ But there was none of that.”

In other words, he is a very unique talent. If his body type and/or delivery provides some deception, his high 90′s heat gets even more difficult to square up for opposing hitters. The numbers being thrown around currently (15 mil)  may sound high for someone who is roughly at Draft pick status, but they are for 5 year deals. That obviously breaks down to 3 mil per, and the Yanks probably have that in the seat cushions of their corporate limos. Also, draft picks aren’t exposed to a free market, they are forced to negotiate with a single team. Multiple teams bidding gives you a truer sense of what the market will bear for his services. Imagine what Steven Strasburg would have received if all 30 teams could have bid in him.

I fully support a big push to sign him, I consider him as a fine replacement for the lost 08 Gerrit Cole pick. I just think fans should be patient on his ETA, wherever he lands.

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Tuesday Yankees Hot Stove, interest in Sheets

Posted by Eric Schultz at 2:29 pm 24 Responses »
Dec 152009

After a ridiculously busy Monday that saw the signing of the top pitcher on the market, a blockbuster 3-team deal, and the news that the Cardinals may offer Matt Holliday an 8-year deal, the hot stove is still burning.  While Boston made some big acquisitions yesterday in the form of John Lackey and Mike Cameron (and might add another bat via free agency or trade), Brian Cashman is not sitting pat.

Ken Rosenthal, via twitter, is reporting that the Yankees are “very interested” in signing RHP Ben Sheets.  Sheets, who missed the entire 2009 season after having surgery, is reportedly seeking as much as 12 million per year, a lot for a player who is coming off surgery, and has not pitched over 200 innings since 2004.  The Yankees would likely hope to offer Sheets a similar contract to that of Rich Harden, another oft-injured righty who can pitch like a front of the rotation starter when healthy.  Harden got a 6.5 million dollar deal with a mutual option for 11.5, for a total of 7.5 million guaranteed over 2 years.  The Yankees will probably offer Sheets a 1 year deal with a base salary in the 6-8 million range, with incentives for starts,  innings pitched, or some other measure of durability that could bring the value of the deal up to the 12 million dollar range that Sheets is demanding.

Sheets is an intriguing buy-low opportunity, and as a guy with great control and the ability to strke batters out (k:bb ratio of almost 4:1 for his career with a career 1.201 WHIP), he could be a nice addition to the Yankee rotation.  If signed, Sheets would likely compete with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain for the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation, though he may want a guaranteed spot in the rotation as part of the deal.  If he insists on demanding more than a reasonable 1-year deal with incentives and a team option for a 2nd year, then it may be too expensive to justify the risk in signing a guy coming off elbow surgery.  An additional risk that Sheets entails is that he has never pitched in the AL before, but he is certainly talented enough to succeed in the AL East.  Sheets may not want to sign right away according to Rosenthal, so the Yankees may have to wait this one out.

Rosenthal also reports that the Yankees have contacted Jason Bay’s representatives, and may be interested in him.  I can’t imagine Cashman will want to shell out the kind of money for Bay that he appears to be demanding (considering he turned down a 4-year 60+million offer from Boston), considering Bay’s horrendous defense.   However, if Holliday signs with the Cardinals and Bay doesn’t have many suitors left, his price could drop, at which point Cashman and the Yankees might be willing to swoop in.

From what it sounds like, the Yankees are looking for at least another bat and likely a starter as well.  Johnny Damon, who can DH and play left field, is probably still the Yankees’ top choice (though not for a 4-year deal that Boras has reportedly demanded).  Other intriguing DH possibilities could include Nick Johnson, Jack Cust, and Carlos Delgado.  Justin Duchscherer is another pitcher the Yankees may be interested, and he has had success both as a starter and a reliever.  More updates will be posted when we hear them.

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Cards offer Holliday 8 years, $128M

Posted by Chris H. at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Dec 152009

With John Lackey, Roy Halladay, Mike Cameron and Hideki Matsui removed from the market, and with former Red Sox Jason Bay poised to sign with the Mets, one cannot help but to wonder about Matt Holliday’s future. The market for his services has essentially thinned out in just a few days, as the BoSox — with a hole in left field — went with a defense-first approach by signing Cameron and Lackey, while the Mets seem more interested in Bay’s ability to pull the ball in Citi Field (they like his power more than Holliday’s). The Yankees, who were, at one point or another, rumored to be suitors for all of the aforementioned players, stood pat yesterday — they did not even attempt to match Matsui’s offer from the Halos — and many wonder whether or not the team is perhaps saving for the slugging Holliday.

This belief certainly makes sense, especially after Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune recently noted that other organizations were suspicious of the Yankees’ decision to publicize their desire to lower the club’s 2010 payroll. Apparently, to many, the indiscreet nature of the move seems more like a bargaining strategy rather than an actual gesture of impending financial restraint. However, if the Yankees are, indeed, saving their chips while quietly hoping and waiting for Matt Holliday’s price to fall, then Brian Cashman and co. could just be out of luck.

Last night, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Cardinals have “intensified discussions” with Holliday’s representation and that they have since altered their original offer, which was put forth last Wednesday, to the left fielder. Strauss notes that the newly revamped proposal — changes were made due to Scott Boras’ dislike of the initial offer — presented to Holliday is “worth around $16 million a season” over “at least eight seasons,” making it the richest offer in Cardinals history (that will change once Albert Pujols is a free agent, I’m sure). If Holliday were to accept the deal — and he would be crazy not to — then the Cardinals would be committed to paying the Oklahoma native $16 million when he’s 38 years old. Holliday seems to like long-term security and the proposal constructed by St. Louis, assuming that it features a no-trade clause, seems to provide him that and then some. On top of that, Strauss also states that Holliday “prefers a return to St. Louis,” according to a source “familiar with his thinking.”

For those who wish to see the burly batter in the Bronx next season, none of this is obviously good news. An eight-year deal worth $128 million is certainly a sizable contract to say the least. In fact, despite the Yankees’ seemingly endless supply of dollars, with a number of hefty deals of their own already in tow, it appears unlikely that the team would offer a similar contract, as an eight-year obligation is an extremely heavy burden (although $16 million per, at least for the first few years, would be a bargain for Holliday’s production). At this point, due to the sheer length of the proposal and the unlikelihood of receiving a similar offer, Holliday appears bound for St. Louis (yet again).

This, then — losing Matt Holliday — in all probability, means another year or two with Johnny Damon and, in addition to that, a deal for pitcher Ben Sheets (and possibly Nick Johnson for the role of DH). If the Yankees cannot use their funds on the best (i.e., most complete) free agent left fielder in the game, I would expect them to effectively spread those resources around in order to plug their current holes with short-term fixes. It’s not a bad route to take, however, after losing Hideki Matsui’s bat, it certainly not as productive, at least from an offensive point of view.

Photo by the AP

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Ten Reasons Why The Yankee Fans Shouldn't Panic

Posted by EJ Fagan at 9:11 am 25 Responses »
Dec 152009

All across our own comments, twitter, and the larger blogosphere, I’ve heard a lot of “Oh shit! We’re screwed” panic from Yankee fans yesterday. I think that the Yankees are still favorites over the Boston Red Sox, assuming they sign a decent LF or DH instead of letting Juan Miranda fill the spot. Here are ten reasons why the Yankees are in good shape:

  1. They won. The Yankees are the defending World Series champions, and did it in dominating fashion. They handedly beat a very strong incumbent team and arguably the two strongest teams in the American League on the way there. They won 103 games in the regular season, which was by far the best in the majors.
  2. Alex Rodriguez isn’t injured. Its easy to forget that we started 2009 with Cody Ransom as our third baseman, and spent much of the late spring and early summer trying to get Alex Rodriguez back on track. The man who carried our team for so many years looks very healthy, and should return to old form next season. Both on defense and offense. Its not a coincidence that the team didn’t start to win until after Ransom and Pena were replaced by Arod.
  3. We added Curtis Granderson. Curtis Granderson will be a big upgrade defensively, and will replace the lost productive of Hideki Matsui. While he had a down year last season, it has beenwell documented that he’s due for a bounce back, and has a great Yankee Stadium swing. And if the Yankees get really ambitious and add Damon and a low-cost DH, Granderson is a huge upgrade over Melky.
  4. The defense will improve. In part because of Granderson, but also because of the departure or banishment to DH of Johnny Damon, the Yankee outfield defense is going to improve significantly. And assuming Alex Rodriguez improves following the recovery from his hip injury, the Yankees could be 1.5-2 wins better on defense alone.
  5. There is no World Baseball Classic. Hopefully, Damaso Marte doesn’t find another shamexhibition tournament somewhere to play in and injury himself.
  6. The bullpen is more settled. Brian Bruney was our primary setup guy heading in to the year. Is that a bad idea or what? The Yankees are much more stable right now in the bullpen department right now. David Robertson is a stud, and Damaso Marte showed some great stuff in the playoffs. Behind them, the Yankees are still sorting out a bunch of long men and young guys, but they have a lot of good options to choose from.
  7. Our top 4 2009 starting pitchers are likely to get better, not worse. A.J. Burnett is due for some improvement, and Joba Chamberlain is due for a lot of improvement. Both have the stuff and track record to be sub-4.00 ERA pitchers, and I think that we’ll see it. Joba is obviously a bit more of a project, but probably suffered from a bit of fatigue toward the end of last year. And the Yankees could also add a Ben Sheets to the mix, who would be a huge improvement over the collection of Chien-Ming Wang (9.44 ERA), Sergio Mitre (6.79 ERA), and Chad Gaudin (3.43 ERA) who made up our 5th starters last year. Really, any health pitcher would be an improvement, including Phil Hughes.
  8. A better bench. Our bench to start to season should include some combination of Juan Miranda, Brett Gardner, Ramiro Pena, Jamie Hoffmann and Francisco Cervelli. All are solid young players who can contribute in diverse ways, and improvements over Ransom, Molina, and Angel Berroa.
  9. There’s plenty of depth. Ivan Nova, Zach McAllister, and Jesus Montero will all by at Triple-A, and likely see their MLB debuts this season. Mark Melancon is still around, and has plenty of talent and experience to hit he MLB bullpen. Gaudin, Mitre, and Aceves provide starting options. The Yankees can take a few injuries.
  10. Cashman isn’t done. Seriously, the Yankees at the very least will sign a DH. They may add Damon to play left and a DH. Cashman famously used to talk about being fine with Bubba Crosby as his center fielder right before signing Johnny Damon. A starting pitcher like Ben Sheets may come along. Kelvim Escobar could receive a minor league deal. There is a very strong chance that the roster is even stronger on opening day than it is now.

And let’s not forget, the Red Sox just lost Jason Bay, their second best hitter for 2009. David Ortiz is fat and old, Lowell was actually a pretty decent hitter last season, and Kevin Youkilis is ugly. We’ve got nothing to panic about.

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Random Thoughts on Yesterday's Moves

Posted by Steve S. at 7:11 am 12 Responses »
Dec 152009

-The power has shifted in the AL West race, and fairly dramatically. Cliff Lee going to Seattle and Lackey leaving the Angels for Boston is a big swing in Seattle’s direction. Seattle now boasts arguably the best 1-2 punch in all of Baseball with Lee-Hernandez atop their rotation, and will therefore be extremely dangerous should they make the post season. The Angels are looking at Derek Lowe to replace Lackey (ouch!) and as things stand right now, the ace of their staff is Jered Weaver.

-It’s not as timely after Theo’s shopping spree yesterday, but I still love it when Shaunessy nukes the Red Sox. Here’s the money quote:

Everyone agrees that the Yankees can spend the most money. It was no fun watching New York commit a half billion dollars to messrs.Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett last winter. But the Red Sox are not a team that can complain about Yankee spending. The Sox are a Have team, not a Have Not team. Boston is not Oakland, Pittsburgh or Kansas City. Through the years the Sox have been able to take players from other teams (Curt Schilling and Victor Martinez come to mind) because they can afford to pay.

They dished out millions for Johnny Damon, Keith Foulke, Daisuke Matsuzaka and J.D. Drew. They raided rosters of the Have Nots. Now they are complaining about Yankee payroll?

It’s absurd. Epstein, like Brian Cashman, can afford to make mistakes. Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo are examples A and B of Theo’s biggest blunders. This year the Sox will pay $18 million to have Lugo and Mike Lowell (trade pending with the Rangers) play for other teams.

Epstein is touting organization prospects named Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish, Ryan Westmorland, Casey Kelly and Lars Anderson, but they are a couple of years away. In Boston the message needs to be “win now.’’

And that means “Beat the Yankees.’’

Now.

-While we still don’t have all the details, and I’m still not sure I understand the deal from the Phillies perspective, the best news about yesterday’s Roy Halladay deal is that he is out of the AL East. We no longer have to face him 3-4 times a year, we didn’t have to give up the farm and he didn’t wind up in Boston. This was the best case scenario for the Yankees, given what it would have taken to acquire his services.

-Mike Cameron’s signing with Boston and Hideki Matsui going to Anaheim should increase the chances that Johnny Damon comes back, since Cammy was an obvious backup plan for the Yanks. But then it would also stand to reason that Johnny’s better bargaining position will mean more years and/or dollars from the Yanks. If the budget holds (currently around 180) and Cashman stays true to inching down the payroll this year, that could mean a little less depth on the bench.

-With the reports yesterday that the Yanks are pursuing Ben Sheets, Johnny Damon still unsigned and apparently only enough room on the 2010 payroll for one or the other, it begs a question. If you’re Brian Cashman, and you have to choose between the two, which option would you prefer? Going with Sheets means Melky’s your everyday Left Fielder next year, but it also means you would upgrade your starting rotation AND bullpen, since you could move either Hughes or Joba there. Johnny Damon in Left with Phil Hughes as #5 or Ben Sheets in the rotation, Hughes/Joba in the bullpen and Melky in Left? Which team is better?

-The Red Sox aren’t done yet, not by a long shot. They may have solved their outfield situation with Cammy and bolstered their rotation with Lackey, yet the infield situation is still up in the air with Mike Lowell’s (still unofficial) departure. Which leads me to yet another good read by Lisa Swan, who’s really been making a name for herself in the Yankee blogosphere lately.

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