Rafael Soriano-One of the top free agent relievers available this off season
One of the Yanks biggest needs this off season may be finding a setup man to replace the stellar work Phil Hughes did this past season. If Hughes is targeted for the rotation next year (early indications say that he is) then there will be a gaping hole that needs to be filled in the bridge to Mariano Rivera. While everyone seems to be focused on Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, finding a primary set up man to build a bridge to Mariano may be the Yanks biggest need this off season.
First approach to consider would be internal options. Damaso Marte, David Robertson, Brian Bruney, Phil Coke and possibly Mark Melancon would all be possibilities for this role. Let’s walk through them one by one.
Damaso Marte-His rates have all been surprisingly good with the Yanks, but his ERA is high and he hasn’t been overly effective except for stretches here and there. When the Yanks got him, they believed they acquired a pitcher who could get both Righties and Lefties out (as he did in PITT) but last year Righties destroyed him in limited action. A Lefty specialist role seems to suit him best in the AL East.
David Robertson-Breakout season for the Alabama native, with a SO/9IP rate that was among the best in the majors. Fastball sits in the low 90s but plays up due to good late life on the pitch. Compliments the fastball with an outstanding, late-breaking curve. When he works low in the zone with those two pitches, he can be very tough. But he could also be a 1 year wonder. His control has always been average and if he loses that late life on the fastball for any reason, he becomes very hittable. He’s earned a larger role, but we still need to see more.
Brian Bruney-I think both fans and Yankee execs alike are sick of waiting for the good Bruney to show up. We saw it for a brief stretch in 2008, but a Lisfranc injury derailed him that season. This year, a recurring elbow injury and whispers that he’ll ultimately need TJS made for a frustrating and mostly ineffective campaign. It’s an open question whether he’s a non-tender candidate, but I’ll guess they bring him back one more time.
Phil Coke-His propensity for giving up HRs to Lefties as a Lefty specialist in Yankee Stadium has to concern you, but it’s possible that its just a statistical blip in a short career. He was one of the Yanks go-to guys earlier this season, and pitched his way down in the pecking order over the course of the season. His one World Series outing went horrendously, giving up 2 HRs to Utley and Ibanez (both Lefty hitters) in a low leverage situation in Game 5. You’ll keep him around since he’s relatively young (26) and cheap, but won’t lean on him too heavily. He has ‘cup of coffee in the bigs’ written all over him.
Mark Melancon-Yanks are still high on him, but for a kid who we all heard had ‘off the charts make-up’ he certainly seemed spooked by the bigs. That’s OK, you expect rookies to be nervous and I suspect he’ll make the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training if he has a decent spring. After that, it will be up to him to earn a larger role.
So unless you want to go Lefty-Righty with a combo of D-Rob and Marte (which isn’t crazy) it appears the Yanks will need a big time reliever to fill that 8th inning role. The problem with that setup tandem is that you’ve weakened the prior group, so when a starter gets knocked out in the 6th you’d be looking at Bruney/Coke/Melancon/Aceves to get you to your dynamic duo. You’d like to have the talent spread around a bit more, if Bruney, Coke and Melancon repeat their 09 campaigns, you’ll be losing a lot of games in those middle innings. Throw in an injury or two and things could get even uglier. The best way to approach this would be to get someone who can get Righties and Lefties out to set up for Mo.
So now that we’ve established we could use an arm (or two), we move on to our free agent options. The 2010 Free agent list for middle relievers doesn’t excite me, so I’d pursue one of the closers and see if they’d be interested in setting up. The two that stand out on that list are Lefty Mike Gonzalez and Righty Rafael Soriano. Both were on the Atlanta Braves last season, Gonzalez was the Braves primary setup man for most of the 2009 season and Soriano was their closer, although both have played each role in recent years. Soriano was setting up for Gonzalez in 2008. The Yanks have expressed an interest in Gonzalez in the past, they pursued him aggressively when he was made available by the Pirates in 2007, but the Braves offer of Jamie Romak (minors) and Adam LaRoche proved to be the winning bid. Signing someone with closer ability also provides some insurance if the 39 year old Mariano Rivera begins showing signs of age, but I gave up waiting for that about 3 years ago.
Another thing to consider is the Type A Draft pick status of both pitchers. I’ve heard some fans claim that it’s not worth the 1st draft pick to sign any reliever. That may be true with fringe Type As (see Juan Cruz last year) it’s not the case with proven talents like Gonzalez and Soriano. Look at it this way. If you signed Pitcher X with the 30th pick of the 2010 draft, and after 3 years in your farm system he turned into a solid reliever, you’d be happy. If he was hurt after 3-4 years with the team and/or lost his effectiveness, you wouldn’t be all that surprised. Given the attrition rates on pitchers (especially draftees) it’s tough to go nuts about losing a draft pick when you sign a proven MLB reliever for multiple years. I’m well aware of the fact that MLB relievers can be up and down as well, but that applies every bit as much to home grown relievers as it does FA’s, if not more. Will anyone be shocked if Phil Coke pitches his way off the Yanks and is DFA’d next season? Not me. Yet if Gonzalez or Soriano bombed out here (far less likely) they would still have value on the trade market. All of that should be factored in. Also consider that a MLB pitcher has a proven track record of staying healthy, whereas so many pitchers with all the talent in the world get drafted and never make it to the bigs for health-related reasons. I value filling that need now with a proven MLB player more than a prospect who may very well never arrive. Yanks are a win now team, this is one of the times when that changes how you approach things. This team needs this specific role filled this season.
So the draft pick compensation for relievers doesn’t bother me when discussing high-end types (Fringy middle relievers are another matter). The only real argument I can see is the money you lost, and for the Yanks that’s no big deal. Mike Gonzalez and/or Rafael Soriano would be great additions to the Yanks.
Related posts:
Ummm…Alfredo Aceves anyone?
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Steve S. Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:13 am
Nah, he did such a great job as the long man you leave him right where he is. You need a long man on the team, and chances are Gaudin will be starting here and there when someone else is hurt.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 12:46 am
Not to mention he doesn’t have the overpowering type of stuff that would lead you to believe he would effective consistently in the 8th, he really struggled down the stretch when his fastball started staying closer to 88 than 91.
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Coke won’t be DFAed, at least not next year–he still has options left and lefties who throw mid-90s will be given every chance to succeed.
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Steve S. Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:42 pm
If he’s out of options and you needed to take him off the roster, he’d be DFA’d. It has nothing to do with salary, Veras made nothing and was DFA’d last year.
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JGS Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:11 pm
of course, but he isn’t out of options.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 12:47 am
He will be given his chances because he is a lefty but he needs to watch out, Dunn could be coming hard for his role, he has better velocity on his fastball and he has a slider and change and the change is already more effective than what Coke has in his change.
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This is nonsense. Really? Gonzales and Soriano. The reason they kept switching off being the closer is because they both went through erratic spurts where they couldn’t hold down the job. Gonzales has developed an extensive injury history while on the Braves making him not nearly as valuable as when the Yanks previously were interested. And Soriano isn’t really a lock down RP. Neither are worth giving up a 1st rounder, they’re just not. Someone in the mix of pitchers (I’m thinking Robertson) will step up next year. I say Yanks go in w/ what they have and sign a settup man only if it seems necessary. Not to mention they’re unsure of what exactly they’re doing with Joba and Hughes, esp with Ian Kennedy dominating in Arizona Fall League.
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Steve S. Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:45 pm
You might want to familiarize yourself with Soriano’s numbers.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4600
He walks about 3 per 9, and strikes out a ton of batters. He’s very good.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 12:50 am
Not to mention his “spurts of not holding down the job” still lead to a 2.97 ERA and he suffered injury he overcame… If I had to choose I would say Soriano, Gonzalez isn’t that much more valuable than Marte and between him and Coke/Dunn we can take care of lefties bring in Soriano and let him hold down the 8th and finally have stability for the first time since Tom Gordon.
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Gonzalez and Soriano are exactly like Juan Cruz. Both have health concerns, both have insane strikeout rates, but both have mediocre-at-best control, and both have had their recent success in the much-less talented National League. If, say, Billy Wagner circa 2005 were on the market, then yes, he would be worth giving up a 1st-round pick. But Soriano and Gonzalez are nowhere near a Wagner-type reliever. They’re barely even a K-Rod type reliever, and he wasn’t worth it either.
Besides, they’re going to want to close somewhere. The Yankees can’t offer that opportunity.
I think we’ve all learned that signing FA relievers to multi-year deals is simply a bad idea. I’m pretty sure Cashman knows that as well.
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Steve S. Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:49 pm
That’s too harsh, it’s not the NL West were talking about. Playing in the NL East he’s facing teams like the Phillies and (when healthy) Mets who have AL style lineups. Both walk about 3 per 9, which is fine. Cruz walks around 4.5 per 9.
And as far as them closing, you could sell to them that Mo is 39 years old, and isn;t going to last forever. When Mo falters, they get the job. Offer them closer $ and see if they want a chance to win.
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check sorianos stats. he misses bats. something cashman values
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Trev Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:29 pm
So did Kyle Farnsworth. Here’s hoping Cash learned his lesson
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Steve S. Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:51 pm
Right. Everyone is Kyle Farnsworth, and therefore Cash should never sign another reliever if it means giving up a pick. Brian might as well tuck his head between his legs every time a closer becomes available.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 12:51 am
I really am tired of everyone pulling the Farnsworth card on every strikeout pitcher they don’t like… First it was Chapman and now it’s Soriano and Gonzalez… Give me a break… What about Jose Valverde, he may not want to setup but if he does he is very effective and the Astros can’t re-sign him.
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Trev Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 10:56 am
Steve S: Not saying anytime any close becomes available, only ones that aren’t dominant and will cost draft picks. Relief pitcher is the easiest slot to fill and also the most unpredictable. The Yanks last year made a living of it by converting minor league SP prospects who won’t cut it as SPs into very effective RPs. I’m just saying with the way our bullpen dominated why on earth would you go after Soriano when you can throw in a David Robertson or a bevy of other young guys who would all be much cheaper options. If you feel the need to get a settup man you can go out and trade for one later. It really doesn’t come down to the draft pick anyway since Yanks are likely to sign more than one type A free agent and will end up giving away multiple rounds of draft pick regardless.
Chris H: I’m sorry if people bring up moves that didn’t work out in the past to disagree with you. That’s how you learn though, by making note of previous mistakes. I didn’t say Soriano is Kyle Farnsworth, I just used the comparison to point out that strikeouts aren’t everything. Something that’s a valid point.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 25th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
Yeah strikeouts aren’t everything but you also don’t have to be dumb and act like since one player out of all the players in the world didn’t pan out the other automatically won’t…
That Randy Johnson sure is like Kyle Farnsworth huh? That Mariano Rivera sure is Kyle Farnsworth huh? Papelbon is a Farsnworth clone too and so is Joba, David Price, Strausberg and any other pitcher in the history of the game to throw hard.
It’s just as silly as comparing Soriano to Farnsworth because they both K people.
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I agree with the last 2 posters. Our track record (and that of a lot of other teams) in signing FA RP set-up guys is really poor. I say we keep out #1 and if we need a set-up guy (after giving JG a chance to develop one from what we have), we can trade for one.
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Steve S. Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Brian Bruney to the 6th!
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 12:52 am
Who is there to trade for? Huston Street? The Rockies are trying to lock him up long term, how many other setup men/closers are for sell?
No one in our pen right now is capable of anything more than mixing and matching and that is the worst way to get through a pen, look at the playoffs, every AB after the starter left until Mo came in was hell!
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I would greatly doubt that Bruney needs TJ surgery.He may not have had any control but he got it back up to 96 when he came back.
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If they Yanks sign a type A FA, they better make it count. If they Yanks sign another type A, that will mean only 1st round pick in the last 3 years. Isn’t this how the yanks got themselves in trouble in the first place? If you’re going to give up a first round pick, it better be Lackey or Holliday. I’m not in favor of signing either, but get a game changer for your pick and $$. I’m in favor of trading for a starting pitcher (ie. Johnson from Florida), signing Chapman, and drafting the best position player they can in the first round. A pitcher for the set position will work itself out…it always does.
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Steve S. Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:02 pm
If we sign Chapman, doesn’t that sort of count as our 1st Round pick for 2010?
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Matt O Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:25 pm
Last time the Yanks had 2 first round type players it was Joba and Phil. I’d rather have those two guys again instead of no first round pick and Soriano for a couple years. Am I wrong?
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 12:53 am
Yeah, how many times have our picks turned into Joba and Hughes? Twice?
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Steve Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 7:07 am
Andrew Brackman was 1st Round pick in 07
Ian Kennedy was our 1st round pick in 06
CJ Henry #1 pick in 05
Phil Hughes #1 pick in 04
Eric Duncan #1 pick in 03
Joba was a Supplemental pick (for Tom Gordon) in 06
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Matt O Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 8:53 am
We can’t do the scouts jobs too. You’re right, Joba was #41 overall for Gordon (before the 2nd round). Who got the better end of that deal? We’re about to make the exact same mistake the Phils made. If they don’t trade for Gordon, Joba is closing for them instead of Lidge this year and that could have made for a different outcome. Worst case, Joba is traded for Halladay. Looking back…Gordon for 2 years vs Joba for 3 and Halladay finishing his career as a Yankee. Also, I’d imagine w/ a good spring, Kennedy will have more trade value than Soriano. Look back at the droughts of first round picks. They all lead to WS droughts.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 25th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
I think you are totally skipping over the fact that Brakcman probably will never make it to the majors… CJ Henry isn’t in baseball anymore, Eric Duncan sucks and Ian Kennedy hasn’t proven jack.
You think Joba could have closed for somebody this year? He was basically a worse version of Lidge, I would much rather have had Lidge closing than Joba at least he has proven he can do it! Not only has Joba never been a closer he was throwing 93-96 MPH in the pen during the playoffs with a terrible slider and no control.
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I would BET Coke pitches 5 more years in the big at least.PEOPLE FORGET HE was blowing guys away throwing as high as 93-94 with a breaking pitch that wobbled lefties knees last year and early on this season.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 12:54 am
You seemed to forget he also went through large periods of throwing 90-92 MPH with a sketchy slider than hung to lefty batters a lot.
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Buyers vs. sellers: You always want to be in the position where you don’t have to do anything or you have as many options as possible. If the yanks continue to give away draft picks, they’ll be forced to sign FAs to fill gaps because they’ll have no trade bait or young talent who can step in and perform at the MLB level. When you have no trade bait, and there is only 1 Free Agent out there who can give you 200 innings, you’re going to pay way too much for him (either due to Boras or the Sox bidding). Also, it’s difficult to get younger when you continue to sign guys over 30 and lose the rights to 20 year old prospects.
If the Yanks have young talent, one of two things MAY happen. 1) The young player turns into a stud and is the Next king Felix 2) Yanks trade the young player to fill a need (Tabata for Nady + Marte).
I see a lot of guys argue that it is a waste of talent to have Phil or Joba moved to the pen permanently. If that is true, how is it not a waste of talent to give up on a Phil or Joba (a 1st round pick) to sign a 30 year old reliever? There is a huge error in your logic
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“If that is true, how is it not a waste of talent to give up on a Phil or Joba (a 1st round pick) to sign a 30 year old reliever? There is a huge error in your logic”
Not really because as has been pointed out you are not likely to get someone of the calibre of Hughes, Chamberlain or Soriano with the 30th pick. Consider the first draft choices of the Yankees since the beginning of Cashman’s tenure( not including 2009):
2008- Cole
2007 -Brackman
2006- Kennedy
2005- Henry
2004-Hughes
2003- Duncan
2002-Weeden
2001- Griffin
2000-Parrish
1999-Walling
1998- Brown
Not very impressive.
Soriano has a proven track record of success in the American League ( 2003 and2007) and based on the track record is more likely to contribute to future success than some unidentified player currently playing in high school or college.To keep the pipeline of young talent flowing, I would suggest greater investment in players not subject to the amateur draft (Latin America and the Far East).
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 25th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
Not to mention Soriano sorts the rest of the bullpen into roles each man is perfect for… Coke and Marte become left handed specialists, Robertson is a 7th inning guy and right handed matchup guy, Aceves stays a long man, Bruney is the last man in the pen with good stuff and Gaudin is spot starts.
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