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Prior to the season, the writers here at TYU collaborated on a predictions post that you can find in the toolbar at the top of the page. Being that we would probably point out the poor predictions made by MSM writers, it is only fair that we go back and look at our own follies. As you might notice, we did not do a fantastic job at prognosticating:

Who will make the playoffs from the American League?

EJ: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Rays.
Moshe: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Red Sox
Anthony: Yankees, Indians, Athletics, Red Sox
Chris: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Red Sox
Steve: Yankees, Indians, Angels, Red Sox
Tom: Yankees, Rays, Angels, Twins

Chris and I were the only ones to get all 4 playoff teams. The Indians, Rays, and A’s each got 2 votes and were the cause for the other failed ballots.

Who will make the playoffs from the National League?

EJ: Marlins, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mets
Moshe: Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Phillies
Anthony: Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mets
Chris: Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets
Steve: Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Marlins
Tom: Mets, Cubs, Marlins, D-backs

Everyone has the Cubs, and all but Steve had the Mets in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks also hurt a large number of ballots. Chris was the only writer to get more than one NL playoff team, picking the Phillies and Dodgers.

Who will win the World Series?

EJ: Yankees over Diamondbacks
Moshe: Cubs over Yankees
Anthony: Cubs over Yankees
Chris: Yankees over Phillies
Steve: Yankees over Cubs
Tom: Yankees over Cubs

4 of 6 picked the Yankees to win the Series, while the other 2 had them losing to the Cubs. Chris distinguished himself once again, picking the right foil for the Yankees.

Who will win the Cy Young Awards?

EJ: Roy Halladay, Johan Santana
Moshe: Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana
Anthony: Roy Halladay, Johan Santana
Chris: James Shields, Dan Haren
Steve: Fausto Carmona, Johan Santana
Tom: A.J. Burnett, Yovani Gallardo

4 picks for Johan Santana were killer. The closest anyone got was my vote for Felix Hernandez.

Who will win the Most Valuable Player awards?

EJ: Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols
Moshe: Justin Morneau, David Wright
Anthony: Grady Sizemore, Albert Pujols
Chris: Mark Teixeira, Chase Utley
Steve: Grady Sizemore, Hanley Ramirez
Tom: Josh Hamilton, Hanley Ramirez

EJ came pretty close here, picking the winner in the NL and the 2nd place finisher in the AL.

Who will win the Rookie of the Year Awards?

EJ: Travis Snider and Jordan Shafer
Moshe: Matt Wieters and Colby Rasmus
Anthony: David Price and Jordan Schafer
Chris: David Price and Dextor Fowler
Steve: David Price and Jordan Shafer
Tom: Matt Wieters and Cameron Maybin

Move along, nothing to see here. Ouch.

Who will win the Come Back Player of the Year awards?

EJ: Bartolo Colon and Todd Helton
Moshe: Francisco Liriano and Chris Carpenter
Anthony: Jorge Posada and Chris Carpenter
Chris: Francisco Liriano and Chris Carpenter
Steve: Justin Verlander and Jeff Francoeur
Tom: Justin Verlander and Todd Helton

Many of these players did bounce back, and Carpenter won the NL award. Liriano got picked twice but failed miserably, proving the old adage that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP).

Who will prove to be the best off season free agent signing?

EJ: Pat Burrell
Moshe: Pat Burrell
Anthony: Pat Burrell
Chris: Bobby Abreu and Takashi Saito
Steve: Andy Pettitte
Tom: AJ Burnett

Abreu, Pettitte, and according to some Burnett, were good picks. Burrell, not so much.

Who will prove to be the worst off season free agent signing?

EJ: Ryan Dempster
Moshe: Jason Varitek
Anthony: Edgar Renteria
Chris: Jason Varitek
Steve: Raul Ibanez
Tom: Jason Varitek

Varitek was pretty awful, and the argument can be made that Burrell belongs on this list. Ibanez probably belongs in the previous category.

How many games will the Yankees win?

EJ: 100
Moshe: 96
Anthony: 96
Chris: 98
Steve: 98
Tom: 95

They won 103, but that is hard to predict. All 6 of us had them winning at least 95 and the division.

How many games do Burnett and Joba each start?

EJ: Burnett starts 29, Joba starts 25
Moshe: Burnett starts 28, Joba starts 22
Anthony: Burnett starts 27, Joba starts 24
Chris: Burnett starts 30, Joba starts 23
Steve: Burnett starts 24, Joba starts 22
Burnett starts 35, Joba starts 22

Burnett made 33, and Joba made 31. Joba’s innings limits threw everyone off.

Which Yankee spends the most time on the disabled list?

EJ: Alex Rodriguez
Moshe: Hideki Matsui
Anthony: Hideki Matsui
Chris: Alex Rodriguez
Steve: A.J. Burnett
Tom: Johnny Damon

The winner here was Alex Rodriguez with 42 days, which EJ and Chris correctly predicted.

Which Yankee rookies will make their MLB debuts?

EJ: Mark Melancon, Ramiro Pena, Austin Jackson, Steve Jackson, Anthony Claggett, Alan Horne, Michael Dunn, Wilkins De La Rosa, Chris Garcia
Moshe: Mark Melancon, Ramiro Pena, Steven Jackson, Eduardo Nunez, Austin Jackson, Alan Horne
Anthony: Mark Melancon, Ramiro Pena, Christian Garcia, Austin Jackson
Chris: Mark Melancon, Ramro Pena
Steve: Mark Melacnon, Anthony Claggett, Ramiro Pena, Austin Jackson, Dellin Betances, Jeremy Bleich<
Tom: Mark Melancon, Ramiro Pena, Austin Jackson, Alan Horne, Andrew Brackman, Steven Jackson, Zach McCallister

Claggett, Pena, S. Jackson, Dunn, and Melancon made debuts in 2009. Only EJ got all 5, while myself, Steve, and Tom got 3.

What did we learn? Predicting baseball events is hard, and that most attempts at prognosticating the sport will fail. Of course, that is why we love the sport, because as John Sterling is wont to say, “Susan, you just can’t predict baseball! Anyone who tells you that they can is just lying! You just can’t.” Right on, John.

8 Responses to “Looking Back At TYU's Season Predictions”

  1. All in all, we did a pretty good job.

    We were definitely terrible with our ROTY predictions, wow. Then again, I don’t think anyone would have predicted those awards correctly this year.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Moshe Mandel Reply:

    Writing this, I got the vibe that you did the best of the 6 of us, so a tip of the hat to you.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    daneptizl Reply:

    I agree…. except the Betances/Bleich picks were a little strange.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Steve S. Reply:

    In hindsight, sure. I thought Betances was going to have a breakout season after his strong 2nd half showing in 08, and Bleich was a polished lefty and Ithought he’d get a September look out of the pen, along with Dellin. I was thinking September call up with both of those guys.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

  2. Just a note on the DL part, wasn’t Xavier Nady the Yankee that spent the most time on the DL?  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Moshe Mandel Reply:

    Good point. Wang has more days as well. Bad miss by me.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Chris H. Reply:

    Funny. They were gone so long that we all forgot about them.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    JGS Reply:

    Marte too  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

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