Don't Think-Have Fun
Ken Davidoff of Newsday’s most recent column delves into the possibility of the Yanks and Tigers making a deal for Curtis Granderson. According to the report, the Tigers Center Fielder has expressed a desire to play for the Yankees, and has the type of media friendly personality that would play well in New York both on and off the field. Granderson has written guest columns for ESPN, so that’s about as media friendly as it gets. Davidoff further says its the kind of deal Brian Cashman would make, since Granderson is under control at reasonable dollars for the next few years. He writes:
The Yankees think very highly of Granderson, who turns 29 next March, hit 30 homers in 2009 and is under team control through 2013. Though Brian Cashman declined to trade high-caliber prospects for the likes of Johan Santana and Jake Peavy, he’d likely be more open to a deal like this because of the reasonable dollars committed to Granderson – $5.5 million next year, $8.25 million in 2011 and $10 million in 2012, with a $13-million team option (or $2-million buyout) for 2013 – for an extended period of time.
So we have a player who fills a Yankee need (CF) and is signed at reasonable money for the next 4 years. Striking a deal for Granderson would allow you to move Melky over to Left and eliminate the need to sign Johnny Damon and/or Hideki Matsui. Granderson’s offense would be a good replacement for Damon’s bat, you get younger and cheaper and upgrade two outfield positions defensively. Sounds good, right? Not so fast. There are always at least two sides to every deal, so let’s break this one down in two easy steps. Why are the Tigers suddenly so willing to trade him? Do the Yanks and Tigers match up for a deal?
-Why are the Tigers willing to trade him?
The most common reason cited for Dombrowski’s willingness to deal his star Center fielder is his declining overall numbers over the past 3 seasons, and specifically his declining numbers vs lefties. Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave Blues broke down the decline in his BABIP nicely as an explanation for the overall decline. He writes:
Granderson’s BABIP stands out as a reason for his dip in production. After posting marks of .362 in 2007 and .317 in 2008, he fell all the way to .276 in 2009. I’m not here to chalk this up to luck and say that he’s poised to rebound. Instead, let’s take look at some other numbers that might explain the dip. Looking at his batted ball data, you can’t help but notice one big change from 2008 to 2009. Granderson’s ground ball rate dropped dramatically. He was at 34 percent in 2007 and then saw that rise to 40 percent in 2008. In 2009 it fell all the way to 29.5 percent. That meant an increase in fly ball percentage, to almost 50 percent. Since ground balls go for hits more frequently than fly balls, Granderson’s lower BABIP, and therefore lower batting average, is easily explainable.
I subscribe to this theory explaining why his overall numbers have dropped. It appears that Granderson has became a bit HR-happy last season, and while he hit a career high in HRs (30) the rest of his numbers (BA/OBP/SLG) suffered. He would need to be encouraged to change his approach, maybe think ‘up the middle’ a bit more. This is the type of thing hitting coaches deal with all the time. When Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano had similar problems in recent years, Yankee hitting coach Kevin Long had them change their approach at the plate, and even open up their stance at times. So this doesn’t dissuade me from pursuing a deal.
But I disagree with a note Joe P. adds at the end of his piece. Referring to Granderson’s struggles against lefties, he said that it “seems like an approach thing. He was much better in previous years.” It may very well be an approach issue, if he’s trying to pull everything that will typically affect a Lefty batter more when he faces Lefty pitchers. But he hasn’t been much better facing Lefthanders in previous years. If anything, his one decent season in 2008 facing Lefties appears to be the outlier. Here’s Granderson’s platoon splits year by year:
2006 (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
vs RHP as LH .274/.353/.452.805
vs LHP as LH .218/.277/.395/.671
2007 (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
vs RHP as LH .337/.393/.621/.1014
vs LHP as LH .160/.225/.269/.494
2008 (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
vs RHP as LH .288/.383/.517/.900
vs LHP as LH .258/.310/.429/.739
2009 (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
vs RHP as LH .275/.358/.539/.897
vs LHP as LH .183/.245/.239/.484
The 2008 numbers would be nice production from the CF position, but they appear to be the exception, not the rule. Granderson appears to be a dead pull hitter. Check out his HR spray chart from Hit Tracker. One explanation could be he’s simply adjusting his game to his home stadium. Comerica isn’t the type of ballpark that’s friendly to an up the middle approach. Here’s the dimensions of Comerica Park and the HR spray chart for the entire season at that facility. Clearly, it’s not the kind of ballpark that yields results if you try to hit the ball to Centerfield, which could go a long way to explaining Granderson’s splits.
If the Yanks were to strike a deal for him, they would be banking on him getting some easy Homers in Lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium and hoping that helps him relax at the plate. But of course, that can cut both ways. If he’s tempted to pull everything over the short porch in Right Field, his over swinging could get even worse, at least temporarily. So he would be someone that Kevin Long would have to pay close attention to, which I’m sure both he and Girardi would be doing anyway. But even if the Yanks left Granderson alone and made no changes, a lefty pull hitter like him is born to play in Yankee Stadium. For that reason alone, even with the bad lefty splits, I would still want to make a deal for him. If anything, his power numbers should improve in Yankee Stadium.
-Do the Yanks and Tigers match up for a deal?
For Detroit to be looking to trade a young, talented player like Granderson they will be looking to fill multiple needs in the near future. Of course they would rather move someone like Dontrelle Willis or Nate Robertson, but nobody wants them. With the down economy and Detroit hit even harder than most cities, they saw their attendance decline by over 8,000 fans per game last season. So they’re looking to get younger and cheaper wherever it makes sense. Granderson makes decent money but more importantly has trade value, and that’s why he’s the one being dangled.
The Tigers have many areas of need, which only multiply with the impending free agency of Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, Adam Everett and Placido Polanco. Fortunately, many of their needs are areas which the Yanks match up nicely with. First, they could use some help in their starting rotation. For most of the 2009 season, they didn’t have a reliable #5 starter, and the all-too-forgettable Armando Galarraga was their 4th starter. The Yanks have a few young arms they could afford to part with that are close to MLB ready, with Ivan Nova, Zachary McCallister and (everyone’s favorite trade bait) Ian Kennedy topping the list.
If the Tigers were to trade their star centerfielder, it would stand to reason that they would need a replacement for him on the outfield. Austin Jackson would likely be the Tigers first choice, since he’s close to being MLB ready and would be cost controlled for 6 years after being called up. Melky is beginning to accumulate service time (4 years) and figures to make decent money, around 2.5 mil this season and likely even more next year. Brett Gardner is another possibility, though from a Yankee perspective you’d prefer to keep him around as a defensive replacement/pinch runner. Austin Jackson has more upside, but if for some reason Dombrowski really likes Gardner, you have to pull the trigger.
The Tiger bullpen is an area of enormous need. Outside of Brandon Lyon, the 2009 Tigers bullpen was a disaster from the beginning. Closer Fernando Rodney was his usual inconsistent self, Zach Minor was spotty at best, and Joel Zumaya has been hurt so much in recent years that he’s pretty much off the radar at this point. If Jim Leyland had anyone in the bullpen he could count on to get a few outs down the stretch, the Tigers would almost certainly have faced the Yankees in the ALDS this year. The Yankees have multiple bullpen prospects, with Brian Bruney, Mark Melancon, Jon Albaladejo and Phil Coke all as possible matches.
Catcher is another area of need, one that the Yankee farm system is deep in terms of prospects. Gerald Laird was the Tigers catcher last season, and he’s not going to make anyone forget Ivan Rodriguez anytime soon. His anemic bat is one I’m sure they’d like to upgrade. While this is an area of depth for the Yankee farm system, it may not be an area that works for both teams. Francisco Cervelli figures prominently in the Yankee plans for next year, and will likely start 50-60 games with the 39 year old Posada having his playing time at Catcher reduced. Jesus Montero is off limits for me, bats like his don’t come around all that often and can only be traded for elite players in their prime. Granderson is a player who’s stock has dropped, so Montero stays put. Austin Romine could be a possibility, but he’s still a few years away, so that may not work for the Tigers.
From Dombrowski’s perspective, you’d prefer to pick up a starting pitcher and CF replacement for Granderson as a minimum for making a deal. You can buy relievers cheaply on the free agent market on an annual basis, starting position players and starting pitchers will cost much more. For the price of one mediocre starting pitcher (8-10 mil) you could buy multiple relievers, and unlike starting pitchers relievers will often take 1-2 year deals.
From the Yankee perspective, they are at a point with their farm system where they can start dealing off excess. The reality is some players will almost never be given a chance to secure a spot on the 25 man roster. As things stand now, Alfredo Aceves, Chad Guadin and Sergio Mitre would get starts in case of injury before Ian Kennedy or Z-Mac would, so there’s no point in leaving them languishing in AAA when they could help you upgrade your team. Getting a CF allows Cashman to use Left Field as a way station for aging players in decline (as we did with Damon) and keeps the least demanding defensive outfield position open for future considerations, which signing Matt Holliday or Jason bay would preclude. Melky plays Left field for now, with possibly Jeter or Montero or whoever else playing there down the line. The late 90’s Championship teams didn’t have anyone special playing Left. They had Gerald Williams(96)/Chad Curtis(98)/Ricky LeDee(99)/Chuck Knobloch (01). We didn’t have a real LF until 2003 when Hideki Matsui was signed, and that was really a George deal that had as much to do with expanding the Yankee brand in Japan as it did Baseball. Getting a Center fielder with a productive bat gives a GM that little word that all Baseball executives love to hear. Flexibility.
What do you think? Would you make a deal, and if so who would you be willing to give up? But whatever you propose, just remember those immortal words of Joe Pawlikowski-Your trade proposal sucks.
Related posts:
Assuming we”re not trading either Hughes or Joba, it probably takes pretty much what you said: Jackson, Cervelli, Kennedy AND Z-Mac with a reliever in there too. But with 26 mil coming off with Damon & Matsui why not go after Holiday? We get to keep the prospects.
Besides, Detroit has to put some fans in the seats and Granderson’s departure will upset a lot of their fans and right now they can afford him.
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Steve S. Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 9:14 am
I didn’t mean to imply that we have to fill ALL their areas of need to make a deal, just outlining them and seeing where we match up. Granderson’s stock has dropped, and sportswriters like Keith Law are referring to him as ‘a platoon player’ due to his consistent struggles vs Lefties. I think that’s a bit harsh, but your package still strikes me as overpaying by close to double. A-Jax and IPK with some filler is plenty. That’s two top prospects, if it gets more expensive than that we just revisit signing Damon.
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Basil Fomeen Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 9:20 am
I’m not so sure… his relatively “low” salary pushes his value up IMO. If he was making 14 – 15 mil then I would definitely agree, but he is cost effective. Detroit isn’t selling him as a platoon player either.
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Steve S. Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 9:43 am
He’s certainly cheap for next year at 5.5. After that, he has 20.25 mil guaranteed over the next 2 seasons, which is closer to market rate for his services. In today’s FA market, I’d guesstimate he gets 12-15 per. But of course, if just one of the 2 Yankee prospects pan out the Tigers would come out way ahead of the deal financially.
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IPK is still selling low, an alright performance in the AFL isn’t going to bring a return for him commensurate with what he would have brought even earlier this year. Give him a couple months in AAA, either he’s ready to help the big club or his trade value should be somewhat restored.
I’m alright with trading ZMac or Nova, but just remember that the next group of potential starters is in High A or below. That doesn’t mean we can’t go out and land a Gaudin type if the need arises, just to say that if they think ZMac could be a solid, cost-controlled 4-5 starter as early as 2011 it may be a good idea to hang onto him.
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For his entire career, he hits .210/.270/.344/.614 against lefties. For reference, Ryan Howard (the poster child for “he can’t hit lefties”, though that’s probably only because he is so good against righties) hits .226/.310/.444/.754.
Also, don’t forget the strikeout numbers. The Yankees only had three guys this year who struck out 100 times–Posada (101), Teixeira (114), and Swisher (126). Here are Granderson’s strikeout numbers:
2009: 141
2008: 111 (in 141 games)
2007: 141
2006: 174 (led AL, surpassed only by Howard and Adam Dunn)
Once again 2008 was the outlier, and even that one extrapolates to 125 over 159 games.
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What is wrong with…
Melky-LF, Brett-CF and Swisher-RF? Melky, Swisher and Brett would make a very good defensive out-field. Granted we lose some power but, we only need enough runs to make up for Johnny. Having this OF would save many runs plus the runs Brett gets, looks like a good replacement to me.
This way we save money and players, money we can use for a plethora of things…Chapman, starting pitcher, back-up OF (although Pena plays OF), or a deal that falls just right for Cashman. I would not trade Cervelli or Romine, Posada is 39(?), he goes down then what?
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Because Cameron-Gardner-Swisher and Melky-Cameron-Swisher are better outfield defenses and are better offensive production than having both Melky and Gardner in the lineup….
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
No one would trade for Cervelli, the guy projects as a career backup how much value do you think he has?
Cameron brings in 24+ HRs which makes up for Damon’s power and he would only cost 5-8 million on a 1 year deal still saving all that money for starters and what not only this way either Gardner or Melky becomes your 4th outfielder and strengthens the bench!
Cameron played better D in CF last year than both Gardner and Melky and he has way more power it’s a no brianer to me.
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Plan A: Sign Damon for 1 year with an option. If Boras doesn´t want it, then for 2 guaranteed years tops.
Plan B: Sign Cameton for 1 year, move Melky to LF
Plan C: Trade for Granderson giving away Ajax and one of IPK or Zmac
Plan D: Sign Holliday (not Bay)
Plan E: Don´t do anything, pray for the best from Gardbrera and Ajax.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
Plan A should be plan B and Plan A should be plan Z!
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Take a look at Granderson’s UZR defenisve rating, too — another area in which he has been trending downward. If he ends up in left, his production ceases to be special for his position, and the concerns others raise, such as the high K rate, start to stand out. I would prefer to see the larger investment in Holliday in left; the Yankees’ internal CF options are certainly adequate if the corner OF positions are strong.
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DaveinMD Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
I’d stay away from Holliday no matter what. I don’t view him as worth the long term financial investment he will demand.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
Agreed! I think he is a good player who is searching for a “superstars” contract and he isn’t worth it… Any team that sign Holliday or Bay to a contract of 18+ million per year will regret it!
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Granderson is the perfect buy low candidate. It won’t be as expensive as you suggest. Especially if we take back another salary. I think they’ll try to peddle Willis along with Granderson. Willis has one year and 12 million left. We can do that and still have long-term flexibility.
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The Scout Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Taking back a large contract in the current market won’t be necessary — teams have largely stopped doing that. Willis would carry a luxury tax penalty, too. What Granderson woudl costs depends entirely on how many other teams enter the bidding and what they have to offer. Precisely because Granderson has an affordable deal, more teams will likely pursue him.
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Hopeless against LHP makes him a platoon player for the Yankees. I am not sure he is worth more than Melky/Gardner plus one other. I would keep ZMAC but trade Kennedy, who seems to be the next version of the Yankee Clippard. Melky+Kennedy= Granderson. Otherwise, lets go with Cameron and wait and see if Jackson/Melky/Gardner can hold down the other position. BTW, if you think Granderson strikes out a lot then you will not love Cameron, who routinely strikes out 150.
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Chip Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
There is no way Kennedy and Clippard are in the same league.
Kennedy in AAA has a 2.14 ERA, .4 HR/9, 9.3 K/9 and a 3.74 K/BB
Clippard puts up 3.92 ERA, .9 HR/9, 8.0 K/9 and a 1.93 K/BB
Those two pitchers aren’t even close.
As for Cameron vs Granderson. Cameron wouldn’t cost prospects, has been a consistent 110 OPS+ player for the past 10 years so you know what you’re getting and would only be a one year commitment. Also, Cameron is still one of the better defensive centerfielders in the league whereas Granderson has been average to below average the past two years.
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JD Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 7:04 pm
I hope you are right about Kennedy. I like him a lot but he seems to lack any dominant pitch and that is usually a recipe for trouble.
I have not seen Cameron in a long while and can’t tell if he is one of these guys that hits so-so pitching great and great pitching poorly.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
Kennedy has a lot of different pitches and none of them dominate you are right, think in the end he will end up in the pen because I don’t think he has the stuff to go through a lineup 3 times and be successful every 5 days.
Cameron’s D is what is important… He had a 10 UZR and a 14.7 RngR rating in CF this year… He upgrades the whole outfield whether you want to play him in CF and Melky in LF or play Cameron in LF and Gardner in CF.
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if your going to give up some good prospects like a-jax and z-mac, get edwin jackson too. it will give the yanks a very good starter that detroit supposebly is willing to deal. if next year is cc, aj, andy, edwin jackson and hughes/joba thats pretty good AND young
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
Edwin isn’t as good as his numbers this year suggest… The guy was pitching in a pitcher friendly home park and he put up his career numbers, don’t expect a sub 4 ERA again, I would still acquire him but I don’t see him as much more than a 4th starter.
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“As things stand now, Alfredo Aceves, Chad Guadin and Sergio Mitre would get starts in case of injury before Ian Kennedy or Z-Mac would”
Disagreed.
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Chip Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 5:53 pm
I think it depends on when the injury happens. Both IPK and Z-Mac are going to have to be hot for a few months in AAA to force a call-up otherwise both Gaudin and Aceves probably have a leg up. Gaudin could actually be a very legit rotation option this spring. He’s come a long way with his change-up against lefties and put up a 4.16 FIP last year and seemed to get a bit unlucky as he had a .323 BABIP
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
The Yankees told Aceves to come to spring training ready to start, they are bringing back Mitre and Gaudin as starting depth and if someone goes down you will see Aceves, Mitre and Gaudin before you ever see Kenedy or McAllister.
Zach McAllister has never even pitched a triple A game therefore it is unrealistic to think he would jump to the majors before major league players got a chance to start first…
Kennedy barley pitched last year and needs to pitch at least half a season in triple A before he is fully back in the groove he left with the surgery… He only cam out of the pen once after the surgery so I don’t think I would trust him to pitch at the major league level just yet…
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Is there any stat that measures a hitters split between good piching (lets say pitchers with an ERA under 3.5, for example) and picthers with an era above the threshold? I think we have all see hitters that put up good numbers druing the course of the season by feasting on bad pitching and then can’t buy a hit in big games against good pitching. Giambi was like that his last couple of seasons as a Yankee.
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Steve S. Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 6:26 am
The Power/Finesse stats on BR cover that. As Giambi got older, he couldn’t handle hard throwers, esp Lefthanded ones.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=teixema01&year=2009&t=b#power
Just look up a hitter’s splits and it’s about halfway down the page on BR.
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I say no trade. Hey, give Gardner a try for a full season. The guy was hitting I think .300 before he got injured, he’s a gamer, a grinder, and has flat out speed for the outfield and base paths. Save your trading chips for big time pitching, Roy Halladay.
Besides, the Yanks don’t need all those Granderson strikeouts!
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Adam Dunn for DH. It wouldn’t cost too much prospect wise (Melky and maybe a C prospect) and he’d absolutely mash as a DH. Then if you pair him with Holliday in LF and Gardner in center… it’s a good fit.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
Adam Dunn will cost way to much in prospects… The Nationals have already said they would have to be blown away to trade him because besides Ryan Zimmerman they have no other star appeal and need to keep Dunn on the team if they want to fill seats until Strausberg gets there.
Besides Dunn is a free agent next year, I want him on the Yankees as well with his power but I would rather wait a year ad sign him to a contract.
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Dunn is the least appreciated player in baseball.He’d hit 50 in Yankee Stadium and he’s never played with protection in his batting order.Walks a lot too and his oF play is no way as bad as people say it is.He could play RF for us because he has a great arm and if we give away Melky to get him , Gardner can protect him in Right center with his speed.
I’d say he’d hit .275 with 45-50 HR’s for Yanks.Same age as Granderson and will cost a lot less to acquire.
I haven’t given pu on Gardner.He wasn’t the same after the borken thumbbut I truly beleive he’ll hit enough.
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daneptizl Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 9:14 am
Dunn most definitely is as atrocious as people say he is in LF. He is the worst defender in baseball and it’s not even close. There’s no way he should be playing in the OF for us, just strictly DHing.
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leftylarry Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
RF in YAnkee Stadium just needs decent hands and a good arm.Dunn can play there.I never found him horrendous and i’ve seen him play a lot albeit a few years ago.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
He is strictly DH at this point… He was always bad (never the worst in baseball) and he is going into his 30’s so he isn’t getting better at this point I would wait and sign him next year once Matsui leaves and make Dunn the everyday DH.
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Great stuff Steve.
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What about B.J. Upton? A lot of sources are saying he might be available. Talk about buy low high reward. What would Tampa be looking for?
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the other Steve S. Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
BJ appears to be a head case. If you liked Raul Mondesi, you would love BJ. How about Milton Bradley? lol
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MR OCTOBER Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
I wouldnt go as far as saying Upton is like Bradley. Bradley is a lunatic. True Upton has been criticized for his hustle. Kind of reminds me of Soriano. He still has a tremendous upside.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Yeah Upton has never been a pure A-Hole like Bradley!
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While I admire Granderson’s tools, I think his total ineptitude against lefties would make him un-Yankee worthy. The three fulltime lefty hitters in the Yankee 2009 lineup (Damon, Matsui and Cano) all hit lefties very well, making managerial moves by opponents a moot point. Granderson would make those moves worthwhile and kill many rallies. Granderson does remind me a little of “Mick the Quick”, with pop, but I don’t think we should trade AJax or Melky, nor should we trade IPK or McCallister to get him. I would give up Colin Curtis, Kevin Russo and George Kontos and Phil Coke for Granderson though. And teach him to hit lefties better or at least bunt on them.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Damon only hit lefties at a .260 batting average this year so I wouldn’t say that is “very well” and he has always been someone you could get out with a good lefty reliever.
Granderson in 2 season (only 1 full season) did show he could hit lefties and he hit them to the tune of .259 which isn’t that far off from Damon’s number this year… Granderson suffered an injury the year before this one and I think he was still recovering from it this year making his D not as good as before but an improvement from the year he was injured and I think he is on his way up because he is fully recovered now.
If you have hit lefties before you can do it again and I think he could learn to at least be a .240-.260 guy against lefties and we are talking about a guy who hit .305 one year while hitting lefties .180.
George Kontos had Tommy John Surgery a month or 2 ago and won’t even be able to pitch for a year so you might want to find someone else to throw in… Kontos was already a little old to have never made it the majors and as a sinker ball pitcher this may affect his abiltity to keep the ball down so I don’t look for him to ever make it to the bigs as a Yankee anymore.
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