Nov 192009
According to Frankie Piliere (FanHouse), the Aroldis Chapman Sweepstakes is an expensive one. Therefore, most mid-market teams will bow out of the proceedings, leaving the Red Sox and Yankees to battle it out for Chapman’s prized left arm. The situation seems pretty simple to me if this is the case, though. The Yankees want Chapman and have more money to spend than Boston. Therefore, I think he’ll end up in pinstripes by the end of the year.
He’s rumored to command anywhere between $15-50 million. What do you think? Is he worth it?
Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
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The Yanks don’t have a minor league pitcher who has the potential to be an ace. I’d love to see the Yanks sign him (keep their first round pick) and trade to fill other needs in the organization. With Chapman, the Yanks would have 3 top 20 minor league players. Obviously price counts…but w/ Strasburg squeezing ~$16mln out of the Nats, the Yanks may have to pay through the nose.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 19th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
If he was a right handed pitcher I don’t think I would be as willing to take on the risk of a guy with pretty much 1 and a half pitches but throwing 100 from the left side is just to rare to pass up even with risks. You are looking at a guy who could end up being in Randy Johnson’s level stuff wise and if his other pitches really never develop you focus on the slider and make him a 2 pitch closer who throws 100 MPH from the left side.
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6 years 45-50 million
5 years 40-45 million
You have length on the contract and he gets close to the money he wants but no one is giving him 60 million being as unproven as he is… 8 million a year for someone who has never thrown a pith is already high but worth it with his potential and talent level.
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Kareem Reply:
November 19th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Thats right in the area I was thinking about for money and years, just remember if the Yanks sign him its “Yankees bought him” and if Boston signs him its “a great baseball move” go figure.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 19th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
I figure you can’t sign him to less than 5 years because he could spend a year pr 2 in the minors and you want him under control as long as you can and if he complains about 8 million per year he has problems…
I know right I can barley even listen to that BS anymore! Cashman has all the money and Theo is the boy genius!
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BI’s breakdown on Aroldis Chapman. Covers some familiar ground, but add some interesting stuff on his delivery. Good read.
http://www.baseball-intellect.com/aroldis-chapman-everything-you-need-to-know/
BTW-Anyone who gives this kid 50 mil needs his head examined. He’s extremely raw, I’d put him in the Betances/Brackman category. High upside, but far, far away from being a MLB pitcher.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 19th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
He is extremely raw but he doesn’t have the injury concerns of either Brackman or Betances so that is going a little far…
I agree he isn’t worth that money but no way he signs for 15 million for 5 or 6 years… The Red Sox will end up signing the kid to a 35+ million dollar deal for sure and you know the Yankees will be in at that point and the price will probably be in the 40-50 million dollar range.
Market isn’t great for free agents and the guy has more hype than Strausberg because he is unknown… I wouldn’t want to give him anymore than Strausberg got and even then I would only do that because he is left handed but this is free agency and not the draft and a 21 year left handed starting pitcher who registered 100 MPH on a WBC gun is going to be highly saute after.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 19th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
Another thing that would lead you to believe he will get 40 million is that Contreras got 4 years 32 million and he was 30 years old, Chapman is 21 years old ad would be getting at least 5 if not 6 years to make sure they lock him up for enough time to give him a year or two in the minors.
If Jose can get 4 yeas 32 million as a 30 year old, right handed pitcher, throwing mid 90’s how much can a a 21 year old left handed pitcher who throws 100 MPH get?
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Peter Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
good point
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I’D MAKE SURE THE rEDSUCKS SPEND A LOT OF MONEY FOR HIM, IF WE DON’T WANT HIM.THAT WAY IF HE BUSTS……………
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 19th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
If we don’t want him and they take him and he becomes even a fraction of his potential and then in 2 years you are dealing with…?
Lester
Beckett?
Buchholz
Dice K?
Chapman
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cAN YOU AFFORD TO BLOW ANOTHER 50 MILLION ON A MINOR LEAGUER?i’LL TAKE HIM SURE BUT CAN WE AFFORD IT?
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 19th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
Igawa signed a 20 million dollar deal and the Yankees have never had a 50 million dollar minor leaguer…
Yes we can afford it! It’s 8 million a year for 5-6 years which isn’t cheap but it isn’t breaking the bank either… From all indications the Yankees aren’t going after a Lackey or Holliday and instead will stay in the Cameron/Sheets kind of low budget deal moves…On top of that we have enough money coming off the book even with pay raises and re-signing Matsui and Pettitte we would still end up saving money from this years payroll.
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I’d be very hesitant to go after Chapman. The buy in to find out if he’s as good as advertised is too much in my opinion. Those resources can be better spent on lower risk propositions.
Generally speaking, Cuban players get a ton of hype because the perception is that they play near Major League level competition. Yet of all the Cubans to reach the Big Leagues over the past decade and a half, how many have lived up to the hype? How many have even been worth what they’ve been paid?
It’s a risk that he goes elsewhere; but it’s one I’m willing to take. I don’t think it’s likely he lives up to his billing or his price tag.
http://fackyouk.blogspot.com/2009/11/cuban-pitcher-crisis.html
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 19th, 2009 at 10:48 pm
So Kendry Morales doesn’t ring a bell to you?
Jose Contreras may never have become the best pitcher in the league but if you look at his career numbers in his first year in NY he had a 3.3 ERA over 70 IP, he posted a 3.61 ERA with the White Sox in 2005 while pitching over 205 innings, and with Colorado in 17 innings this year he had a 1.59 ERA… He isn’t hall of fame worthy but he has been a more than serviceable starter on some good teams.
Chapman can throw 100 and at the very worst ends up in the bullpen, this isn’t like Igawa… Before Kei even came to America people questioned if his stuff would translate to the bigs but with Chapman you know he has the fastball to pitch at the major league level it’s just about his secondary stuff developing.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 19th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
Cuban born players playing in the MLB in 2009
Danys Baez
Yuniesky Betancourt
Barbaro Canizares
Alberto Castillo
Jose Contreras
Yunel Escobar
Livan Hernandez
Michel Hernandez
Juan Miranda
Kendry Morales
Vladimir Nunez
Brayan Pena
Alexei Ramirez
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Matt @ Fack Youk Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 1:19 am
I’m well aware that there have been several Cuban players over the last 15 years or so. I’m not trying to say that none of them have been successful. I’m saying that very few, if any, of those players have proven to be as good as they were hyped to be. Sure Contreras has had some decent seasons, but was he worth the price the Yankees paid for him? Were the other big money signings worth it? It’s not that I think Chapman can’t be successful, only that I don’t think it’s enough of a sure thing to justify the kind of contract it’s going to take to land him.
Access to Cuban players is limited, the amount of scouting and statistical information on them is small, and what little exists is not highly reliable. If he can throw 100 that’s great, but there are also concerns about his control. If that lands him in the bullpen, are you going to be happy with him earning 40 or 50 million over the life of his contract for that? Haven’t the last couple years taught us that a cheap, flexible bullpen is just as, if not more, effective than a high priced veteran one, and that saving money there allows a team to spend it elsewhere?
I’ve of the opinion that they should let another club burn the money and assume the risk that Chapman’s performance will justify the price tage. I think the Yankees can better use that money elsewhere. Your mileage may vary, and it sounds like it does.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 3:47 am
My mileage may very haha
I’m not saying there aren’t risks I mean the guy basically has 1 and a half pitches but I think he has the raw potential to possibly be great and I think we have the room to sign him to a contract and still have maneuvering room.
We can still get Rafael Soriano, Sheets, Cameron, re-sign Pettitte and Matsui and still be good enough payroll wise to sign Chapman to an 8 mill per year contract… I mean outside of maybe Matsui who of that crew stands a chance at over 10 million per? and Rafael Soriano would cost a multi year deal.
The Yankees aren’t locked into a bunch of Giambi contracts right now we have the room to take the risk and frankly I think the juice is worth the squeeze, I guess you don’t but how will you ever get good talent if you don’t take risks every once in a while. If we sign him and he buts it sucks but we really didn’t hurt the team that bad if we sign him and he is the next Felix Hernandez then we greatly increase the chance to win for years to come.
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This is not how I would spend my money, if I were Hal and co. It is simply an expensive role of the dice, and with a team poised to win over the next three or four years I would much prefer to spend the money on players who have a stronger probability of delivering. The only economic advantage of signing a Chapman is that it does not count against the luxury tax threshold.
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If only he had a gyro-ball.
Sign him! Proportionally he HAS to be a better deal than the RS got with Matsuzaka(100MM!!). If anybody thought Igawa was a good idea then you have to sign this kid. Brackman is looking less and less like he is going to be an impact player and you need somebody showing up in the 2-3 year timeframe to replace Andy.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
Igawa wasn’t even close to this kid… People never knew if Igawa’s stuff would translate you already know no matter what the kid has a fastball that will translate.
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I don’t think that he is worth 15 million let alone 50 million.
What do we know about him?
1. He pitched in Cuba for a few years. Our best guess on the level of competition between Cuba and low-level international competition is A+/AA.
2. He has erratic, but great, velocity on his fastball. Sometimes he’ll throw 90, sometimes he’ll throw 100.
3. He has terrible control.
That doesn’t sound like Matsuzaka to me, who was one of Japan’s (higher level of competition, most good Japanese players went straight to the majors. Most Cuban players had a tougher transition) best pitchers, and in his prime.
Chapman should be treated like a high first round high school pick, but a little older. Let the Red Sox spend their money – I’d rather they spend it on a wild lefty with no track record than John Lackey.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:38 pm
He is no where near Dice K! Dice never threw 100 and most sits in the low 90’s… They are 2 completely different pitchers…. He also has had no real pitching coaches worth anything and his training facilities were crappy if he straightens out his mechanics then you should see his velocity fluctuate less… HE also throws a 2 seam fastball so that is one reason some of his pitches aren’t 100 MPH… Most of his problems to me stem from him not having his mechanics down, if they can fix that and get him comfortable with his throwing motion you will see a lot of improvement quickly IMO.
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I’m with EJ and Matt here. This guy is a prospect, nothing more. At the right price, of course you sign him, but I don’t think that will be the case. There is too much risk here to warrant giving up a 40-man slot and more than $20 million.
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Peter Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Why is everyone so worried about the Yankees payroll all of a sudden?? At 5 years and 40 million deal, its only an extra 8 mil per year. That is 1/3 of what Arod is making. These numbers are the new norm for up and coming prospects, and this guy is a prospect that you only see once every 5-10 years.
All things aside, he could potentially be our next closer in a couple years if his development comes up short. Add to the fact that hes only 21, his other option is the Sox, and hes a lefty and this deal is a no brainer. Break the bank Hal.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
That is the thing to me, if he fails this isn’t a Jason Giambi contract we can’t get out of it’s just 8 million and while that is huge to you and me that’s peanuts in baseball. I think the juice is worth the squeeze.
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Really? Based on what? Most of us have seem little more of him than a you-tube video clip. Raw talent is but one ingredient in pitching success, and there is little evidence that the other pieces are there. Most of the international prospects who are heavily-hyped don’t come close to living up to their billing.
Of course, if you take the view that it is only money and that the Yankees have a near-infinite supply of the green stuff, you can advocate signing Chapman for any amount. The Yankees, on the other hand, have made it clear that they operate within certain budget constraints. So it comes down to choosing between alternatives.
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Matt O Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
What if the yanks have permanently screwed up Joba? What if Hughes can’t get by as a 2-pitch starter or a one pitch closer? (I noticed a lot of Phil’s early success as a closer came on fastballs out of the strike zone. Once batters started laying off those pitches, he couldn’t get ANYONE out) What if Brackman sucks forever? What if Betances is just tall and nothing else? Does that change anyone’s thinking on Chapman?
That means CC is the only dependable starter in the entire organization for the near future. Who is going to pitch from 2011 and beyond? The yanks will have to trade or sign free agent pitchers. The only trade bait they have is Cano and a 19 year old DH. And if they keep signing free agents, they’ll never have any draft picks for high ceiling pitchers.
I don’t think the Yanks have a choice. Sign him.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
I think we have a choice, but I also think if the Yankees scouts are comfortable with him then sign him!
I will let them decide though… Everyone is right all any of us have seen are internet videos of the kid and articles talking about him, he will have to throw a live bullpen to real batters before anyone signs him anyway, if the Yankees see something and like it I’m all for bringing him in.
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From what I have seen in interviews and read through articles Chapman comes off as a guy who is all about the money, he appears to be all about wearing his jewelry and being famous. I have never seen him pitch other than in the WBC on tv but it appears he is a lot more hype than substance. Keith Law has another cuban lefty on his top FA list, some guy that left Cuba with the SS the Red Sox signed back in 08. He is younger (19) and seems to be getting very little attention because people know he will have to spend some time in the minors but the Law states he would probably be a top 10 draft choice if he were American and could develop into a front line guy. He would also be cheaper, with less expectations. Has there been any word that the yanks are in on him at all?
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
I have watched all the video you can find (some of it isn’t WBC footage) and he is very raw and needs some time to develop for sure… However if you are going to say the guy is all about the money you might want to take a look at his life! The guy comes from a communist country, before he got here he had never even seen an Iphone and he had to leave his pregnant girlfriend to get here and his daughter was born a few weeks after he left… He needs money to try and get some to them and he has never been able to wear many chains before this. He is a 21 year old experiencing the world you and I have know our whole lives for the first time. Cuba as far as he is concerned was a different planet than the one he is on now.
The Red Sox signed the SS from Cuba like 2 weeks ago… He was actually Aroldis’ teammate it’s one reason the Red Sox are a favorite to sign Chapman.
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remind anyone of jose contreras???
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
He throws harder, he’s left handed, he is a lot more raw and he is about 9 years younger than Contreras… The only thing they both have in common is being Cuban…
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Roarke Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:42 pm
Reminds me more of Sean Henn (who could also hit 100 as a LHP). He’s a prospect, and not even a top-10 guy.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
Sean Henn reportedly hit 100 but I never saw, and at least we have seen Chapman hit 100 at the WBC… and Henn isn’t a prospect anymore… He got signed and cut by the Twins and Orioles last year… I think he signed with the Blue Jays or something.
How does he remind you of Henn other than being left handed and both reportedly hit 100? Everyone always wants to say they remind me of Contreras or somebody but in reality they don’t remind you of that person they just have 1 thing in common with them.
If I threw a 95 MPH sinker from the right side and was Taiwanese everyone would say I remind them of Wang…
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WELL, YOU CAN TELL BASED ON MY HANDLE THat I am partial to Southpaws.Especially port siders who throw 97+. Let’s get him!
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
If he was right handed I don’t think it would be worth it to sign him, he would just be another right hander with a good fastball but someone who can throw 97+ from the left side is worth a little more risk…
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