I really do not have time today to go into this, but Mike Francesa has forced my hand by convincing every human being I know outside of the Yankee blogosphere that Chad Gaudin should be starting tonight. Here are the relevant data points:
1) Chad Gaudin has thrown 2.1 innings since Sept. 28.
2) Chad Gaudin is awful against lefties, who are the key to the Phillies lineup.
2) AJ Burnett has a small sample of very strong starts on 3 days rest.
3) Andy Pettitte has solid career numbers on three days rest.
4) The Yankees have not overworked their starters, and they should be fully ready to survive one fewer day of rest. In the playoffs, these are the days of rest between starts for the three pitchers:
Sabathia 4,8,3,7,3
Burnett 4,7,4,6
Pettitte 7,7,5,5
5) All 3 pitchers have told Joe Girardi that they feel fine.
6) Burnett has actually been worse in his career on 5 days rest, which he would be pitching on in Game 6.
7) This is the last start of the season for all three. No need to hold anything back.
Basically, you have a choice between allowing a rusty Chad Gaudin to pitch in a World Series game, or bet on the guys who brought you here and who have been underworked over the last month or so. I am not sure why this seems like a difficult decision to some people. Joe Girardi has definitely made the right move.
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I don’t listen to Francesa but I said yesterday and the day before if we go up 3-1 our best strategy is to use Burnett against Pedro instead of putting his start against Lee. Our mission is to win the WS not tonight’s game.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:51 pm
You have to try and win every game, and pitching Gaudin after a month’s rest against a lefty laden lineup is a bad idea. If you can assume for a minute that 3 days rest shouldn’t bother a guy like Burnett too much (and the numbers vaguely support that notion), then it is a choice between Gaudin on a month’s rest or Pettitte on 3 days. I go with Andy.
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JeffG Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Moshe I usually agree with you on most subjects Yankees but I am way on the outside here in baseball blogworld… Trying to win every game is not the objective. Trying to win the WS is.
I posted this at RAB:
Lets just make a hypothetical:
Your best pitchers will give up:
A) 1 run B) 3 runs C) 3 runs D) 8 runs
Their best pitchers will give up
A) 0 runs B) 3 runs C) 3 runs
Going your D,A will beat their A,B
– Going A,B,C against A,B,C may not.
Sure AJ is better than Gaudan but Lee is better than AJ. This gives us one unfavorable pitching matchup. Then you ask Pettitte to go out and pitch on short rest and there you have a 50/50 chance followed by game five with no back-up for CC (who has looked progressively worse. Command can be an issue with pitchers going on short rest and CC has shown it.
I like AJ for a game six just because he is throwing well and would have a much better chance of beating Pedro than he does against Cliff Lee. Also, to consider is he would have Matsui behind him. This stacks the odds in our favor whereas I think going for the kill tonight makes the last three pitching matchups dicey.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Why a 50/50 chance? Pettitte, even on 3 days, should be a better bet than Pedro against that lefty lineup. I think this means that they will maintain the advantage in Games 6 and 7 while narrowing the gap tonight. I think that if you throw Gaudin and get rocked tonight, you let Philly right back in the series. And if you have no issues with pitching Gaudin, he can always be there to back the starters up with a short leash.
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JeffG Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:11 pm
I think Pettitte on short rest vs Pedro on full is an even matchup (thus 50/50). On the flipside AJ against Pedro we have a distinct advantage much like Lee may have against Gaudin.
Seeing we only need one win I can accept the tradeoff.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:16 pm
I think that we now have a real chance to win each of the 3 games. I don’t think punting on one to improve your chances in the next makes sense.
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JeffG Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:37 pm
Well all people do not agree at all times. That said, if someone can beat Lee in this WS I think it’s AJ. I pray he is nasty as all hell tonight and makes what I’ve been arguing a moot point.
I’ve got to get back to the end of my day and trek home. Enjoy the game.
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abs2sweet Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:03 am
You’re absolutely right…that decision cost us much. There’s no telling how chad would have done tonight, but really could he have been any worse?
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“Our mission is to win the WS not tonight’s game.”
What? This confuse anyone else?
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JeffG Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Think… but tonight is not game 7 if that helps. Tonight’s game is not must win – if it were I say pitch AJ but seeing it is not the best chance to win one game and capturing the championship is to have AJ go against Pedro and have CC & Pettitte for game seven. Because if we do lose tonight I don’t like what game six looks like either.
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Cliff Lee is great, but the Yankees really helped him out last game. They’ll get him tonight. Their best bet is AJ. I say, go for the glory then go home. Not go home and go for the glory.
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Look, AJ destroyed the Yanks on 3 days rest last year or the year before that with the Jays. Beckett shutout the Yanks on 3 days rest in ‘03. It’s not that big a deal.
Cano has got to start getting some better at bats. He now has a pretty large sample size of ab’s in the postseason and it doesn’t reflect a .300 hitter. GO THE OTHER WAY WITH THE PITCH!!
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JeffG Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:19 pm
For me it is not so much the short rest being the issue with starting AJ tonight… the problem for me is I’m going to pull my hair out if the Phils win by a score 1-0 tonight and then come back and beat us 5-4 the next game.
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Look for a breakout against Lee tonight. His stuff was hardly electric last week. His curve was on but his fastball was straight and flat. Familiarity will breed contempt. Tonight we win 7-2.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:42 pm
I don’t know how it was straight and flat because he throws mostly cutters!
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I dont understand why people are crying for Chad to start, AJ gives us the best chance at winning tonight, starting Chad would be doing the Phillies a favor and if for some chance it does go to games 6 and 7, we would be facing Pedro and Hamels, I like our chances against either one, Pedro will not get away with the junkballing twice and Hamels is already mentally defeated.
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Go for the jugular and just try to win now. Win each and every game. That has been the way the Yanks have been playing all year, so don’t change that approach now because of matchups. Yesterday’s matchup looked extremely lopsided in the Yanks favor with CC vs. Blanton, yet the Phils almost stole that win. Baseball is about momentum. The Yanks have it and they should not relinquish it by throwing Gaudin. Even if the Yanks lose tonight, they still have the favorable pitching matchups at home for the next two games. As good as Lee may be, I just don’t see him being as dominant as the last pitching performance. I think the Yanks can work him to get to the bullpen or squeeze a few runs out of him today.
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Francesa (and all the media types) job are to come up with “I told you so” articles/stories if the Yanks lose. If they win people will forget their predictions or bad advice because the story will be on the Yankees victory. JG’s job on the other hand is to win the WS. In his opinion (and he is talking to his pitchers) throwing AJ, Andy and CC on short rest is the best option. I respect that. Pitching Gaudin means either Andy or CC will only start once more and the Yanks an option JG is avoiding. Yes Lee is pitching tonight but there is no need to concede the game. I say throw your best guy out there every time and not concede game 5 for a perceived better shot at game 6.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:20 pm
The thing that tips the scale for me is the fact that Andy, CC and AJ all went to Girardi and asked to pitch on short rest, so if Andy and AJ are confident with it go for it!
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I don’t have a problem with this either way. I’ve been thinking that after all this time watching the playoffs, Gaudin is itching to go and will step up and throw well if called upon. I would be reluctant to rush Andy as his legs were tired Saturday. But going with your best players, in this case arms, is always the best choice if it can be done. What the other team is doing is something to consider but plays almost no part in this decision. No matter what, no one will ever know if a different decision would have been better, worse or exactly the same.
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Why does everyone assume we lose with Gaudin automatically?Is AJ pitching a shutout tonite? Who’s to say GAudin doesn’t give us 6 innings and 2 runs>He has decent stuff.If Lee pitches a shutout at least we’d have rested pitchers from here on in.
Girardi blundered here.Let’s hope we win anyway.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:29 pm
Gaudin is awful against lefties, and the Phillies have a few excellent ones. Add in the fact that he hasn’t pitched in a month, and the best I would expect from him is something like 5 IP 4 ER.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:39 pm
I say 5 IP is about the max he would be able to go and Mo is right 4 ER in 5 would be a great night out of Gaudin and that just doesn’t get it done… Plus does anyone want Ryan Howard to really get going in this series?
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:44 pm
I’m convinced Larry that you could make the managerial decisions for the Yankees and you would still come on this site and complain about how wrong you were! haha Girardi could piss wine and it wouldn’t be good enough!
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I like Girardi.This was a horrible decision that could cost us the series.
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The other Chris H Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:33 pm
I was with you on not wanting to pitch AJ and Andy on short rest until Andy asked to pitch on short rest, if he thinks he can than I more than believe in Pettitte pitching in game 6… On the same note if you don’t have AJ pitch tonight (as bad as he did) you don’t get Pettitte at all. It was a hard decision but to me it was made when they asked to do it, that usually is a good sign of the mental state and that’s half the battle… I’ll take Pettitte to close instead of Gaudin to sacrifice. With that plan Gaudin loses tonight and AJ could still get blown up in game 6 and we still see CC in game 7. With all that said it was the right move because I don’t see Pedro beating Andy Pettitte, it’s going to be two savvy vets out dueling each other but I think Pettitte will come out on top because he knows how to pitch to Howard, Utley and Ibanez.
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