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Looking Back At TYU's Season Predictions

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 4:30 pm 8 Responses »
Nov 302009

Prior to the season, the writers here at TYU collaborated on a predictions post that you can find in the toolbar at the top of the page. Being that we would probably point out the poor predictions made by MSM writers, it is only fair that we go back and look at our own follies. As you might notice, we did not do a fantastic job at prognosticating:

Who will make the playoffs from the American League?

EJ: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Rays.
Moshe: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Red Sox
Anthony: Yankees, Indians, Athletics, Red Sox
Chris: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Red Sox
Steve: Yankees, Indians, Angels, Red Sox
Tom: Yankees, Rays, Angels, Twins

Chris and I were the only ones to get all 4 playoff teams. The Indians, Rays, and A’s each got 2 votes and were the cause for the other failed ballots.

Who will make the playoffs from the National League?

EJ: Marlins, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mets
Moshe: Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Phillies
Anthony: Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mets
Chris: Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets
Steve: Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Marlins
Tom: Mets, Cubs, Marlins, D-backs

Everyone has the Cubs, and all but Steve had the Mets in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks also hurt a large number of ballots. Chris was the only writer to get more than one NL playoff team, picking the Phillies and Dodgers.

Who will win the World Series?

EJ: Yankees over Diamondbacks
Moshe: Cubs over Yankees
Anthony: Cubs over Yankees
Chris: Yankees over Phillies
Steve: Yankees over Cubs
Tom: Yankees over Cubs

4 of 6 picked the Yankees to win the Series, while the other 2 had them losing to the Cubs. Chris distinguished himself once again, picking the right foil for the Yankees.

Who will win the Cy Young Awards?

EJ: Roy Halladay, Johan Santana
Moshe: Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana
Anthony: Roy Halladay, Johan Santana
Chris: James Shields, Dan Haren
Steve: Fausto Carmona, Johan Santana
Tom: A.J. Burnett, Yovani Gallardo

4 picks for Johan Santana were killer. The closest anyone got was my vote for Felix Hernandez.

Who will win the Most Valuable Player awards?

EJ: Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols
Moshe: Justin Morneau, David Wright
Anthony: Grady Sizemore, Albert Pujols
Chris: Mark Teixeira, Chase Utley
Steve: Grady Sizemore, Hanley Ramirez
Tom: Josh Hamilton, Hanley Ramirez

EJ came pretty close here, picking the winner in the NL and the 2nd place finisher in the AL.

Who will win the Rookie of the Year Awards?

EJ: Travis Snider and Jordan Shafer
Moshe: Matt Wieters and Colby Rasmus
Anthony: David Price and Jordan Schafer
Chris: David Price and Dextor Fowler
Steve: David Price and Jordan Shafer
Tom: Matt Wieters and Cameron Maybin

Move along, nothing to see here. Ouch.

Who will win the Come Back Player of the Year awards?

EJ: Bartolo Colon and Todd Helton
Moshe: Francisco Liriano and Chris Carpenter
Anthony: Jorge Posada and Chris Carpenter
Chris: Francisco Liriano and Chris Carpenter
Steve: Justin Verlander and Jeff Francoeur
Tom: Justin Verlander and Todd Helton

Many of these players did bounce back, and Carpenter won the NL award. Liriano got picked twice but failed miserably, proving the old adage that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP).

Who will prove to be the best off season free agent signing?

EJ: Pat Burrell
Moshe: Pat Burrell
Anthony: Pat Burrell
Chris: Bobby Abreu and Takashi Saito
Steve: Andy Pettitte
Tom: AJ Burnett

Abreu, Pettitte, and according to some Burnett, were good picks. Burrell, not so much.

Who will prove to be the worst off season free agent signing?

EJ: Ryan Dempster
Moshe: Jason Varitek
Anthony: Edgar Renteria
Chris: Jason Varitek
Steve: Raul Ibanez
Tom: Jason Varitek

Varitek was pretty awful, and the argument can be made that Burrell belongs on this list. Ibanez probably belongs in the previous category.

How many games will the Yankees win?

EJ: 100
Moshe: 96
Anthony: 96
Chris: 98
Steve: 98
Tom: 95

They won 103, but that is hard to predict. All 6 of us had them winning at least 95 and the division.

How many games do Burnett and Joba each start?

EJ: Burnett starts 29, Joba starts 25
Moshe: Burnett starts 28, Joba starts 22
Anthony: Burnett starts 27, Joba starts 24
Chris: Burnett starts 30, Joba starts 23
Steve: Burnett starts 24, Joba starts 22
Burnett starts 35, Joba starts 22

Burnett made 33, and Joba made 31. Joba’s innings limits threw everyone off.

Which Yankee spends the most time on the disabled list?

EJ: Alex Rodriguez
Moshe: Hideki Matsui
Anthony: Hideki Matsui
Chris: Alex Rodriguez
Steve: A.J. Burnett
Tom: Johnny Damon

The winner here was Alex Rodriguez with 42 days, which EJ and Chris correctly predicted.

Which Yankee rookies will make their MLB debuts?

EJ: Mark Melancon, Ramiro Pena, Austin Jackson, Steve Jackson, Anthony Claggett, Alan Horne, Michael Dunn, Wilkins De La Rosa, Chris Garcia
Moshe: Mark Melancon, Ramiro Pena, Steven Jackson, Eduardo Nunez, Austin Jackson, Alan Horne
Anthony: Mark Melancon, Ramiro Pena, Christian Garcia, Austin Jackson
Chris: Mark Melancon, Ramro Pena
Steve: Mark Melacnon, Anthony Claggett, Ramiro Pena, Austin Jackson, Dellin Betances, Jeremy Bleich<
Tom: Mark Melancon, Ramiro Pena, Austin Jackson, Alan Horne, Andrew Brackman, Steven Jackson, Zach McCallister

Claggett, Pena, S. Jackson, Dunn, and Melancon made debuts in 2009. Only EJ got all 5, while myself, Steve, and Tom got 3.

What did we learn? Predicting baseball events is hard, and that most attempts at prognosticating the sport will fail. Of course, that is why we love the sport, because as John Sterling is wont to say, “Susan, you just can’t predict baseball! Anyone who tells you that they can is just lying! You just can’t.” Right on, John.

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Yanks considered drafting Holliday in '98

Posted by Chris H. at 2:30 pm 5 Responses »
Nov 302009

While adding Matt Holliday to the Yankees lineup has its fair share of detractors and supporters, from Anthony McCarron, we learn that the organization could have added Holliday to the team 10 years ago via the ’98 draft. According to McCarron, “Holliday could have been a Yankee out of high school,” for the Yankees “considered drafting him in 1998 even though he had a scholarship to play football and baseball at Oklahoma State.” However, the Yankees thought that Holliday, a quarterback at Stillwater High, would opt for college over a major league career, and they ultimately chose Drew Henson over Holliday, based on those concerns. These same apprehensions allowed the Rockies to draft Holliday in the 7th round of the ’98 draft, as he fell due to questions surrounding his signability.

Of course, Holliday went on to play baseball in Colorado and has been one of the best outfielders in the National League since then, while Henson—along with Jackson Melian, Brian Reith and Ed Yarnall—was traded to the Reds in 2000 for Mike Frank and Denny Neagle. Henson was later reacquired from Cincy the following year and saw a total of 9 major league at-bats with the Yankees between 2002 and 2003 before pursuing a football career in 2004 (Henson, like Holliday, was also a quarterback). Interestingly, Holliday and Henson (I believe) are both free agents right now.

I wonder who the Yankees would rather pursue this time around…

Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

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Jeter Wins Sportsman of the Year, Sherman Prefers A-Rod

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 12:13 pm 5 Responses »
Nov 302009

From SI:

In what has already been a banner year for Derek Jeter, the New York Yankees shortstop can add another honor: Sports Illustrated’s Sportsman of the Year award. Jeter was chosen as the magazine’s 56th honoree (the Dec. 7 issue will hit newsstands on Wednesday) and becomes the first Yankee to be named SI’s Sportsman.
Jeter’s selection caps another outstanding season for the 35-year-old team captain and future Hall of Famer. In 2009 he batted .334 while leading the Yankees to their fifth World Series title in his 14 full seasons, their first since 2000 and their record 27th in franchise history. On Sept. 11 he passed Lou Gehrig’s franchise mark for base hits, which now stands at 2,747…… He was named an All-Star for the 10th time, including the sixth time as a starter, while winning his fourth AL Silver Slugger as the best hitting shortstop in the league and his fourth Gold Glove as the league’s top defensive shortstop…. During the Series, Jeter was named the American League recipient of the Hank Aaron Award, given to the best hitter in each league, and the winner of the Roberto Clemente Award, given to the player who best displays skill on the field while giving back to the community off it.
It was that combination of on- and off-field achievement that helped make Jeter this year’s Sportsman. Said Sports Illustrated Group Editor Terry McDonell, “Derek Jeter has always presented himself with class; he does numerous good works for the community with his Turn 2 Foundation, which is one of the most efficient, effective foundations of its kind; and he’s extremely generous with not just his money but with his time, which in many cases is more valuable. He also had another signature year on the field.

Jeter was an excellent choice for all of the reasons noted in the excerpt, with the other viable candidates likely being Kobe Bryant, Tim Tebow, and Roger Federer. However, Joel Sherman believes that another Yankee would have been a better selection:

Alex Rodriguez should be the Sportsman of the Year. Before you hit me with how that title should go to someone who embodies the best in sports let’s remember that both Pete Rose and Mark McGwire have won the award, and before long we might remember that Tiger Woods has won twice.

Jeter has a brilliant year in which he became the all-time Yankees’ hit leader while remaining a high-level star who wears his pinstripes well on and off the field.

But sports are publicly messier these days, and we should not run away from that. Heck, the initial broken story on Rodriguez’s steroid use was published by Sports Illustrated. He also touches on the advancement of sports medicine as he came back successfully from significant hip surgery months after undergoing the operation. And he was again a great player, this time finally in the postseason, as well.

In the end, A-Rod offers a story of second chances and redemption. He was a better teammate and was rewarded with the most positive feedback yet as a person while scoring that elusive championship.

Rodriguez does not offer a life well-lived as much as a fascinating life. Sports in 2009 are no longer just about the games, and Rodriguez touches on so many of those other important elements while remaining a unique athlete.

If the competition were A-Rod vs. Jeter, it is not even close: Rodriguez is the Sportsman of the Year.

I have to disagree with Joel here. I am a huge A-Rod fan and always have been, but the steroids morass that he found himself in during spring training eliminates him from contention for this award. The Sportsman award has always been presented as being about more than just competitive success. Rather, it includes off the field behavior and playing the game “the right way.” While I have stated on many occasions that I find the whole steroids scandal to be one giant bore that has been blown out of proportion, I have to concede that taking steroids is certainly not “sportsmanly.” Although McGwire and Rose did win the award, that happened prior to their indiscretions being revealed to the public. While sports has become more complicated and A-Rod does represent that reality, the fact is that an award like this one is attempting to recognize the ideal rather than come to terms with the hard truth. Nobody represents the ideal athlete of 2009 more than Derek Jeter.

A-Rod had a great season and his story is a classic sports tale of despair and redemption. If the steroids issue had never come up, he would have been a lock for SI’s award. However, now that we know what we know about him, it is hard to suggest that he should have been named SI’s Sportsman of the Year. Congratulations to Derek Jeter on a job well done.

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SI's Top 50 Free Agents

Posted by Steve S. at 9:07 am 32 Responses »
Nov 302009

Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated takes a look at this years crop of free agents and ranks them in terms of desirability and best fit. Four current Yankees show up on his list, as well as two prospective new Yankees. Here’s the Yankee related fits as he sees it:

#1 John Lackey

He’s only arguably No. 1 on the merit of his talent alone — either of the two men ranked immediately below him could occupy the top spot on the basis of skill — but this is a market in which there appears only one starting pitcher who is a proven and durable team-changer and playoff performer, and that relative scarcity increases his value. Lackey went 7-4 with a 3.05 ERA and a .239 BAA in the second half, when he rounded into form after tightness in his elbow sidelined him for the season’s first month and a half. As a Texas native, Lackey has long been viewed as a perfect fit for a Rangers club perennially in need of an ace. The Rangers’ ownership situation is uncertain, though, and the Yankees also could use a pitcher, and they usually get what they need.

CURRENT TEAM: ANGELS
BEST FIT: YANKEES

#13 Johnny Damon

His strong postseason, and terrific baserunning play in Game 4 of the World Series, might have helped remind the Yankees of all the things that Damon can still do. Included among them are using his compact swing to pull balls over the close right-field wall at Yankee Stadium, and keeping left field warm until GM Brian Cashman can go after Carl Crawford either via a trade this season, or via free agency next winter.

CURRENT TEAM: YANKEES
BEST FIT: YANKEES

#19 Andy Pettitte

“I’ll need to get home, talk to my family, talk to the Yankees, find out where they’re at, and then I can probably start figuring out what I might do,” Pettitte told reporters in the Yankees’ clubhouse after he won the World Series-clinching Game 6. There’s probably less uncertainty here than all that. The Yankees will want him back, Pettitte will want to return, and both will likely agree that he’s earned a contract with more guaranteed money, and fewer incentive clauses, than the one he signed in ’09. Mark it down.

CURRENT TEAM: YANKEES
BEST FIT: YANKEES

#26 Mike Cameron

While he no longer has 30-steal speed, Cameron’s other offensive skills haven’t declined all that much. He had a 107 OPS+ in 2000, a 109 OPS+ in 2002, a 108 OPS+ in 2003 … and a 108 OPS+ in 2009. He also remains a terrific outfielder (according to UZR, he ranked defensively behind only Franklin Gutierrez and B.J. Upton among center fielders last season). The Yankees have long been interested in him, and he could fit in nicely even if they re-sign Johnny Damon. Damon could DH most of the time, Melky Cabrera could play left and Cameron could play center — but he’d give Joe Girardi a lot of room to futz with his lineup, something Girardi would enjoy.

CURRENT TEAM: BREWERS
BEST FIT: YANKEES

#29 Hideki Matsui

Matsui’s MVP performance in the World Series will allow him to close out his productive seven-year career in New York on a very positive note, as his physical limitations — he simply cannot be used in the outfield anymore — and that inflexibility will likely lead the Yankees to big him a fond farewell. He’d fit best on a team that could use an offensive boost and has a hole at DH. The Mariners could use him.

CURRENT TEAM: YANKEES
BEST FIT: MARINERS

#36 Xavier Nady
Nady felt a sharp pain in his right elbow early in the season, and ended up having to undergo his second Tommy John surgery. That will just mean that he will have very little leverage in contract negotiations, but will retain a significant upside, as his 2008 campaign (25 HR, 97 RBIs for the Pirates and Yankees) suggests. The Cardinals will likely be looking to replace Holliday’s bat, and they could give Nady, with whom they’re familiar from his days in the NL Central in Pittsburgh, a try.

CURRENT TEAM: YANKEES
BEST FIT: CARDINALS

Not sure I agree with him on Lackey. I only see the Yanks signing him if Andy doesn’t come back.  But the rest of his list sounds about right to me. I would prefer Curtis Granderson over the aging Cameron, but only if the price tag is A-Jax plus filler on a trade. Any more than that, I’ll just sign Cameron for 2 years.

Sunday Morning Links

Posted by Steve S. at 6:55 am 3 Responses »
Nov 292009

Bob Sheppard enjoying his retirement


Here’s some reading material for a quiet holiday weekend Sunday morning

-Tremendous Yankee video retrospective covering everything from 1903 to 2008. About 8 1/2 minutes long, and worth every second. It’s incredible just how many great moments this franchise has had. (h/t to Zell’s Pinstripe Blog for the link)

-THTs Shysterball is no more. You can still read Craig Calcaterra on NBC Sports.

-Typically good, funny, smart piece from Sports Illustrated’s Joe Posnanski (aka the other Joe P). The LVP awards (Least Valuable Players) discussing players and managers.

-Good MLBTR piece on draft pick compensation, which got me thinking about offering Johnny Damon arbitration.

Would you offer it to Johnny Damon? Boras rarely accepts arbitration. He not only aggressively takes his clients to free agency but often takes them deep into January. It’s an opportunity to use Boras’ ambitious nature to your advantage. If you think there’s a 2 year deal out there for Johnny, you would offer him arbitration knowing he would decline. However, if there’s not a multi year deal out there for Johnny . . what’s the downside? Would it be so bad to have Johnny come back on a 1 year deal? That’s the Yanks preference, they’re on record saying they would like to sign him to a 1 year deal, possibly with an option. 2 years would be tops they would offer to him as a free agent. I’d rather overpay him a bit for one year than negotiate with him and wind up with a guaranteed 2nd year. I offer it arbitration to Johnny, I don’t see any big downside.

-(Facepalm) Some ideas are too batshit crazy to even begin to break down. In the newspaper biz, it’s common to take reporters without a sports background and give them a team to cover. The plus side can be a fresh take on a well worn topic. The downside can be articles like this one.

-The Red Sox 1912 World Series trophy is currently owned by a New York Real Estate broker named Robert Fraser, who’s auctioning the thing off. Don’t ask me what I would do with it.

-Hanley Ramirez to Boston? From Bill Madden’s latest column-

7. David Samson

The Florida Marlins president obviously has no shame. After finally succeeding in securing a new taxpayer-funded stadium for the Marlins in downtown Miami – supposedly enabling the Marlins to have the financial means to keep their star players – Samson demonstrated he has no intention of doing that when he refused to give his best pitcher, Josh Johnson, a four-year extension. Now it also looks as if Hanley Ramirez won’t ever see that new stadium in a Marlins uniform as the Red Sox, who let incumbent Alex Gonzalez go, are reportedly engaged in talks with Florida about reacquiring the All-Star shortstop.

What is it with Madden having all these Red Sox contacts all of a sudden? First the Halladay-to-the-Sox stuff, now this. I think Madden is carrying somebody’s water for them, and they live about 200 miles north of Yankee Stadium. Watch him get a big Red Sox-related scoop later this off season. Neither of these stories ring true to me. First, if either Ramirez or Johnson was officially available it would be a huge back page news story, not some footnote in an editorial. They’re two of the best young players in the game. Next, Hanley’s big money doesn’t kick in until 2011, he’s only due to get a 1.5 mil bump next year, whch even the Marlins can afford. These Madden stories lately all seem designed to have the same effect, and that’s to scare the Yanks into doing something.

-Happy Birthday to Mariano Rivera, who turns 40 today.

Photo courtesy of the great NoMaas.org

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UPDATE-Josh Johnson officially NOT available

Posted by Steve S. at 7:39 pm 12 Responses »
Nov 272009

UPDATE-There have been multiple reports of the Marlins backtracking from yesterday’s John Perotto Tweet that they were “very willing” to deal the star Right hander. First came John Frisaro’s Tweet (see below) from last night, then Buster Onley’s story this morning saying he spoke to multiple GMs and nobody confirmed the story.

Now Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has the most definitive squashing of the report. In the piece he says that he’s heard from two sources who he says are close to the situation that the Marlins have no intention whatsoever of dealing their star pitcher before Opening Day 2010. It makes sense, Johnson is still not making much money and they’re heading into a new ballpark.

Just came down on John Perotto’s Twitter, the Florida Marlins Right hander is officially on the trade market. He writes:

Keep hearing #Marlins are very willing to trade Josh Johnson right now for the right package.

This could impact the Halladay sweepstakes, with another much younger high-upside arm being available at the same time. The loser of the Halladay sweepstakes could be the lead horse for Johnson, depending on what Florida needs. Johnson has 2 more years of team control before hitting free agency.

Lets go a step further with this, on the heels of today’s Halladay news. Lets say Montero+ package gets you Halladay, but a Montero+Joba/Hughes is needed to land Johnson. Which one you go for?

EDIT-Now Joe Frisaro has Tweeted that he’s not hearing the same things that Perotto is. Here’s his quote:

There is going to be plenty of speculation about Josh Johnson being trade bait. From what I’m hearing, don’t buy into it.

Could be the first report is erroneous, or that the Marlins don’t want to look too anxious to deal him. Decide for yourself, but my guess is he’s still on the market.

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The price for Halladay begins to take shape

Posted by Steve S. at 7:09 pm 15 Responses »
Nov 272009

There’s a bunch of Tweets and stories from Jordan Bastian of MLB.com that shed some light on what the Blue Jays will likely be looking for in a prospective Halladay deal. First, he has a story up on MLB.com saying that the Blue Jays are likely to lose Catcher Rod Barajas this off season. They plan on offering him arbitration, but it appears he has a multi-year deal elsewhere. He also quotes Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos on his Twitter, saying this in reference to the Barajas situation:

“We’re going to keep the dialogue open. But, right now, I don’t see there being good chances of Rod coming back.”

He later Tweeted that Travis Snider has been told he will have to earn a spot on the Jays’ roster during spring training, leaving the possibility of another opening in the outfield on top of the hole left by Alex Rios last year. Finally, he sums up the info with a quote from the Blue Jays GM

Anthopoulos: No. 1 need right now is at catcher, but Jays are also looking for help in the outfield.

My first impression is that this is an attempt to draw the Yanks in to the bidding, having a plan in place for their Catching position next year that could very well be bringing Barajas back on a 2 year deal. But any good GM has a series of contingency plans, so there’s nothing really ‘skull and dagger’ about that. I’m admittedly suspicious when New York beat writers are breaking Red Sox-related stories regarding Halladay, but I’ll take all of this on face value for purposes of this discussion.

This means a few things right away. First, the Red Sox are not as good a match as we initially thought. Casey Kelley is too far away and the don’t have any good catching prospects anywhere near the level of what the Yanks have to offer. The Phillies are an excellent match, maybe the best of all. They could do a Drabek/Brown package and blow everyone else out of the water. But are they willing? Coming as close as they did this season, and being a pitcher (or two) short of winning it all, you’d have to think they are. But Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has shown a willingness to go for lower cost options, opting to pass on Halladay and go for Cliff Lee last season at the trade deadline. His two top prospects may be more than he’s willing to give for one year of Roy Halladay, and I would understand that completely.

We can start drawing up our own various packages that suit the Jays needs while avoiding giving up the kind of multiple high ceiling talents and/or players on the current 25 man roster that most Yankee fans want to avoid for a single year of Halladay’s services. Offer a package that fits their needs directly, but without giving up Joba or Hughes. The Yanks have multiple players at each position of need for the Blue Jays, all of whom are close to MLB ready. A package could consist of some combination of Jesus Montero or Frankie Cervelli, Austin Jackson or Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera, and one of our AAA arms like Zach McCallister, Ian Kennedy or Ivan Nova. I’m not going to speculate on specific packages since they instantaneously become Pinatas, and I’m sure we all have opinions on which combination is too high and which is too low to get it done. But the point is we are a good fit for the Blue Jays needs both in terms of position(s) and MLB readiness.

So the question becomes, would you be willing to give up a bat like Jesus Montero (with some other useful MLB players) for an arm like Roy Halladay? If just one high upside prospect gets it done, then I’d have to think the answer is yes. But now that Josh Johnson has become available, the decision gets tougher. Lets say Montero+ package gets you Roy Halladay, but a Montero+Joba/Hughes could land you the 26 year old Josh Johnson. Which one would you go for?

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Report-Halladay would approve trade to Bronx

Posted by Steve S. at 6:28 pm 4 Responses »
Nov 272009

Bob Elliot of the Canadian Slam Sports site is reporting that Roy Halladay has pre-approved a deal to the Bronx, while ruling out some other locales. He reports-

“I don’t know who Toronto will wind up with,” a major league executive said Friday. “I don’t know when he is going and I don’t know where he’s going.

“But I do know that Halladay has told the Jays he’ll approve a trade to the Yankees.”

(snip)

A Minnesota Twins official confirmed in July that Halladay would not approve a deal to the Twin-Cities and Texas Rangers president Nolan Ryan said in September he was told Halladay would block a deal to Arlington, Tex.

Halladay has never said yeah or nay to the Yanks and still hasn’t, but this third party news clears the decks for Halladay to follow the path of Cone and Clemens.

Not surprising, but this should answer any question about his willingness to play in New York.

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A high price to pay

Posted by Chris H. at 1:00 pm 8 Responses »
Nov 272009

Via MLBTR comes this piece from Jeremy Sandler of the National Post. In it, Sandler brings us a few tidbits regarding the Blue Jays’ asking price for their 32-year old ace, Roy Halladay. While most of what Sandler has to say isn’t at all surprising—for instance, stating that Toronto desires “young, salary-controlled players” in exchange for Halladay is like saying the sky is blue—one of his assertions is particularly notable in that it details what the Jays want from a trading partner, specifically.

According to Sandler, “[t]he Jays want a major league-ready arm and bat, both young and affordable enough to stay in Toronto a while, plus prospects for Halladay.” Sandler admits that a package of a “major league-ready arm and bat… plus prospects” for a player with only one year left on his contract is a “high price” for any team to pay. The human cost outlined here becomes even more substantial if an extension is also involved. Now, I could see certain teams parting with one or the other, a major league-ready arm or a major league-ready bat, while offering high-end prospects, but I doubt the Jays will get exactly what they want (an arm and a bat, plus prospects), despite Sandler’s claim that “[i]ndustry insiders suggest serious offers in the coming weeks should match Toronto’s wish list.” The Jays’ asking price just seems exorbitant, though you can’t fault them for trying (I’m sure the Twins asked for the same thing when trading Johan Santana).

With regards to the Yankees, I don’t think they could afford Halladay if Sandler is correct (which makes me wonder if he actually is, since most contending teams in need of a pitcher like Halladay won’t be able to meet Toronto’s criteria). Brian Cashman certainly has major league-ready arms to “spare,” with Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, though major league-ready bats seem few and far between unless you believe that Jesus Montero and Austin Jackson are at that stage. According to Jon Heyman (SI), the Jays are said to like Montero, so perhaps they would be willing to take on a package of Joba, Montero, and other prospects, as Montero’s bat is often considered a “sure thing” (i.e., close to major league-ready). Still, as talented as Roy Halladay is, that’s an expensive price to pay for one year of his services (and, if an extension is needed, then the combined cost of a trade and a multimillion dollar contract is enormous).

In my opinion, such a trade could actually create gaping new holes rather than fill those that already exist.

Photo by Getty Images

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Trade Value: Chamberlain and Buchholz

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 9:57 am 30 Responses »
Nov 272009

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