Oct 262009
Not that it’s surprising, but, according to Jon Heyman (via Twitter), the Yankees are “leaning toward rotation of 1 thru 7: CC, AJ, Pettitte, CC, AJ, Pettitte, CC.” If this is the rotation the Yankees decide to use, then they’ll be pitching CC Sabathia on 3 days rest twice (Game 4 and 7), A.J. Burnett once (Game 5), and Andy Pettitte once (Game 6). I think this is definitely the best idea, especially when you consider the alternatives (Chad Gaudin and maybe even Joba Chamberlain). Plus, 5 left-handed starts is an ideal situation when facing the Phillies and Ryan Howard (they hit .248/.335/.452 against lefties this year).
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I don’t like this move if they go that route, I trust C.C. on three days rest, but do you feel comfortable with A.J. and Pettitte (who already had a tired shoulder) on three days. It would depend on if they where down 1-2 or 0-3 that’s the only way I would do that.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Good point, Mike. I actually don’t trust Burnett much even when he’s on regular rest, let alone short rest. I still like him over Gaudin or anyone else, though, and his career numbers on 3 days rest are impressive (2.33 ERA). Andy also has pretty good numbers when pitching on 3 days rest (4.15 ERA), so I’m not too worried. The Yankees could possibly amend their plans as they go a long, but such an idea seems unlikely since Girardi was pretty adamant about outlining his rotation in advance for the ALCS. Also, Gaudin has barely pitched lately and Joba is a full-fledged reliever. If the Yankees go with a 3-man, it’s a decision based on necessity (they have no solid 4th option) as well as skill level.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
It is absolutely the right move. Asking a pitcher to go on short rest when it will be his last start of the year should not be a big deal. He can just leave it all out on the field. I am now much more confident in their chances.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Agreed. It’s the right decision by Girardi.
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I’m not as big a fan of this as I was in the ALCS (when only one pitcher was pitching on three days rest). Pitching every pitcher on three days rest after their first start is asking a lot. Chris H’s comment that 5 lefties is the way to go is misleading as Pettitte’s numbers are slightly better vs righties than lefties (.717/.727 OPS, respectively).
Alternatives are tough to come by (although, would Gaudin vs Blanton be that big of a mismatch?). I guess a rainout in this scenario would be a blessing.
This is not the slamdunk that it was in the previous series.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
Thanks for pointing that out on Pettitte, Matt. I wonder if that split will play out against Philly? A rain out would help the Yanks a lot.
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Which pitcher would you rather have?
FIP IP H HR BB K PA K/PA BB/PA HR/PA BIP BABIP
4.29 207.00 193 25 97 195 911 21.4% 10.6% 2.7% 594 .283
3.97 134.33 132 11 70 125 605 20.7% 11.6% 1.8% 399 .303
The first one is Burnett
The second Gaudin as a starter (mostly in the NL West, admittedly a weaker hitting division).
My point is that Burnett is overrated because we remember the good starts and forget the bad ones. He walked 6 guys in game 2 and was lucky not to have given up more runs. Gaudin is underrated (at least versus Burnett).
Having 2 games potentially messed up by having pitchers with health issues pitch on 3 days rest is a bad trade for swapping out Gaudin who is not that much worse than Burnett.
Use CC in game 4 if you must but use Gaudin in game 5, AJ in 6 and CC or Pettite in 7.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Ludicrous! Gaudin is underrated in comparison with Brunett? Against the best line up in the NL and team that is half a step from being an AL team in the Phillies I will the Burnett’s 93-96 MPH fastball and nasty strike out knucklecurve over Gaudin’s 89-91 MPH 2-seam fastball and his “work in progress” breaking balls.
Numbers aside facts are facts, Gaudin at this point can pitch what 75-85 pitches? So probably 3-5 innings at most and he will assuredly give up a couple runs against Ryan Howard, Ibanez, Utley, Werth, Rollins Victorino Etc… so you are getting at best and slightly less than average start, with Burnett you have the possibility of a 4 run inning to start the game (a game we took the lead with him as the pitcher of record) but you also have the ability for him to go out and throw 7 r 8 innings of pure domination and 1 or 2 hit ball. AJ is nasty and when it comes down to it he is a much better pitcher than Gaudin or anyone else who could take his place in that spot and I want his stuff Vs Gaudin’s “Underrated factor”.
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Matcohen Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
“Numbers aside facts are facts”
That has to be my favorite quote of the year.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
You have to put facts aside and use your eyes… Who has better stuff? The FACTS are Burnett has MUCH better stuff than Gaudin ever had or will have.
If you don’t understand that then that’s your problem…
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
I think you overrate Gaudin and underrate Burnett here. Gaudin does not give you any length, and the stats you quoted for him were in a small sample. It is hard to look at their career numbers and conclude that it is even close. And who is the second guy with health issues? And for that matter, do you really think one game on short rest for Pettitte will suddenly cause his shoulder to flare up during that very game? I doubt it.
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A PPD game is likely inevitable (that’s probably not proper english, but w/e) so the possibility of getting an extra day in there somewhere is high IMO. Not to mention, AJ and Andy would only have to go on short rest once…not really a big deal.
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Mark Da Rosa Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
The best case scenario for the Yankees would be game 4 postponement, that way CC, and A.J. would be able to pitch on full rest for game 4 and 5 at Citizens Bank Park. The only question I have would be if that does occur do the teams lose the travel day between games 5 and 6 or they still get a travel day in which case would allow Pettitte to pitch on full rest. Does anyone know?
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Matt F. Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 8:21 pm
This is a great question. Would the teams lose that travel day in the event of a postponement? I would think not, as there are no future TV commitments by MLB to worry about. Anyone know if this is true?
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Chris H. Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
Not sure, Matt.
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al;dskjf;ad Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
there will be no game 5.
yankees in 4.
Confidence Level: 11
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This is a gamble, but with all the off days this month, I think its the right call.
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Why worry about beyond game 4? NY in 4.
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I think this is the best rotation in that it’s a worst case scenario plan.
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Old Ranger Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
I’ll buy into that formula, why not, after all it’s only one game…as was put by one poster above! AJ and Andy can do it, they are both bull dogs out there, we know CC can do it!
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Regarding the Pedro Game 2 start:
Does anyone think this is a throwaway start for the Phillies? If Pedro does somehow win, that would be great for the Phils. But in essence, they want to protect Hamels because his home numbers are better than his away numbers.
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I think that the decision to start Burnett and Pettitte on short rest is the correct decision, but it also signals a serious weakness in Yankee depth that needs to be addressed before the start of next season. The New York Yankees do not trust anyone besides their top-3 starters. They have good reason not to – Mitre, Gaudin, and Chamberlain don’t inspire much. They can’t spend 2009 short-resting the three good starters, and Chamberlain is unreliable at this point. I think that win or lose, we’ll see an offseason acquisition of some kind of starter. We may not be looking at John Lackey, but maybe someone along the lines of Jon Garland or Randy Wolf.
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