A.J. Burnett has a 3.09 ERA over his last 5 starts. During the course of those 32 innings, he has struck out 37 batters while walking 14. It’s certainly been an impressive way to end the regular season, as Burnett seems to have figured it out at the right time. Even more impressive is that 6 of the 11 ER A.J. gave up were in one inning to Baltimore back on the 12th. If you subtract that one inning from his line, A.J. would have a 1.45 ERA over 31 innings pitched. While this dominance is definitely a good sign prior to the playoffs, one element that truly complicates matters is Jose Molina’s involvement during those 5 starts.
Steve Lombardi (WW) and Ben K. (RAB) have already demarcated the issue. Jose Molina has been there for each of A.J.’s 31 effective innings (and he was there for one very ineffective inning). With A.J. pitching well, it seems as though Joe Girardi will have a tough decision to make once the postseason arrives. Do you start A.J. Burnett with Jose Molina behind the plate or do you throw away the sample and pair up A.J. with Jorge Posada’s bigger bat? Obviously, Molina couldn’t hit a parked car if his life depended on it, however, he and A.J. have been a solid duo and disrupting that could hurt his pitching performance once Detroit rolls into town (yes, I’m calling it). Then again, can you afford to sit Jorge Posada’s bat in the postseason?
This is the problem, yet, I wonder if it’s a legitimate one. According to Jon Heyman, earlier this month, A.J. Burnett studied some videotape and corrected mechanical flaws in his delivery. Bryan Hoch also noted something similar a week ago. While I think Jose Molina makes every pitcher he works with better, could the mechanical adjustments be the real reason we’re seeing a much improved A.J. Burnett?
Remember, A.J.’s August was dreadful (6.03 ERA), meaning that he was likely pitching with a poor delivery during most of that time. Unfortunately for Jorge Posada, he was catching A.J. regularly then. Now, that he’s “fixed” and Molina has been the one catching most of his starts, people are attributing his success to the comfort and guidance he has with Molina rather than taking into account the tweaks in his delivery. We have quickly forgotten that Jorge Posada caught most of A.J.’s starts in June (2.10 ERA) and July (2.43 ERA), and A.J. was stellar during those 2 months. Perhaps we’re being overly apprehensive going into October. It makes sense for us to assume that the Molina-Burnett pairing is the best option, given their recent success (we remember that which is recent), but, if Posada was catching those starts, would Burnett have pitched poorly? I don’t think so, although I maybe giving him too much credit.
The point is, I believe Posada’s bat is far too important to the team to leave it sitting on the bench, only to make an appearance in the later innings of a ballgame (as a pinch-hitter). I think you have to trust that A.J. will have his game together to the point where he can throw to Alex Rodriguez and still pitch effectively. The mechanical adjustments have been made and he is pitching extremely well. That should not be impacted by Posada’s presence behind the dish. If you give A.J. Burnett the ball in game 2 or 3, Jorge has to catch—it’s really that simple.
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Agree with you- he threw to Posada for much of his last hot streak.
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If the opposition is throwing a lefty, to me it’s a no-brainer to DH Posada and sit Matsui for a game.
We know AJ prefers throwing to Molina or Cervelii and the slight difference in hitting between Posada/Matsui against lefty pitching as opposed to Posada/Molina is plenty offset by the better defense behind homeplate and the comfort level for Burnett.
Righty pitcher, well, then it’s a bigger question. Maybe Posada catches, maybe he takes a game off and pinch hits.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
October 1st, 2009 at 2:35 pm
I disagree. Go look at Hideki’s numbers against lefties, they are excellent. The question is about the same against lefties as it is against righties.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 1st, 2009 at 2:46 pm
I agree with you on this one, Moshe. Sitting Matsui is probably worse than sitting Posada (if they make it to the World Series, it’s going to be tough). Matsui and Posada are two of our best hitters with RISP. After those two, you have Cano, Swisher, Melky and Molina (assuming Posada is sitting). I don’t really trust any of those guys with RISP as much as I do Posada or Matsui. It would be a mistake to sit either, I think.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 1st, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Not to mention with both in the line up we hit lefties better than we do with out them! Matsui and Cano hit lefties better than almost any lefties in baseball and once you switch Tex and Posada to the right side we are a match up nightmare through out the line up. I don’t believe you will see Molina catch any game in the playoffs to start a game, he may come into a game and be a defensive replacement late like Gardner will be but I don’t think you will see him start any games.
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How about Molina’s numbers and how are Matsui’s numbers against Lester?
Look, we all admire Jorge, he’s a ihtter and a gamer but he sucks as a catcher.He takes his eye off the ball, drops many, many pitches and doesn’t frame well.Even the umps aren’t safe behind him and he’s constantly banged up becuase he just isn’t good back there.Arguably the worst catcher in baseball blocking wild pitches.
Additonally he does not call a great game, he really doesn’t AND ALL THE INSIDERS KNOW IT.i HEARD IT FORM AN AGENT YEARS ago that a lot of YAnkee pitchers didn’t like ot throw to him and pitched better before they got here and pitched better again when they left.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
October 1st, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Wow, and they still made the playoffs every year of his career and won some titles.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 1st, 2009 at 4:31 pm
I could see Posada being a weak game-caller, but I actually think he’s having one of his better defensive years in 2009.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 1st, 2009 at 4:41 pm
He is terrible at blocking balls in the dirt and that has continued this year but has been made to look worse than it is because Burnett has an incredible spike curve in the dirt so you really have to be on your game to block it, but with that said Molina doesn’t offer enough D for it to make up for his lack of offense in the post season, one sure fire way to lose is to have holes in your offense and Molina is a guaranteed out against any good pitcher.
Posada ultimately does have good enough D to allow you to put his bat at the C position every day and that is good enough for now, besides both line up’s with out Posada blow!
Jeter
Damon
Tex
Arod
Posada
Cano
Swisher
Melky
Molina
—–
Jeter
Damon
Tex
Arod
Matsui
Swisher
Cano
Melky
Molina
Both of those line ups are incomplete and just aren’t the kind of line up I am comfortable putting out on the field, especially when the reason your doing it is so Burnett doesn’t have 1 or 2 extra wild pitches.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 1st, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Are you seriously trying to compare Matsui’s numbers against lefties to Molina’s? Compare batting average and HRs and fins out which one sucks (Molina) and which one is the best lefty hitting lefty’s in the AL (Matsui).
You want to take out a great lefty hitter against lefties in order to put in Molina? You weaken the line up, keep Matsui in and take out Posoda because of Molina again you weaken the line up.
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Best game of the year was the 15 inning Boston marathon. Wasn’t that AJ-Posada?
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Molina won’t start a single game in the post season, if he does Posada is hurt and wont be able to play anyway and I doubt we advance at that point. Jorge and Matsui’s at bats are to important to lose for someone who may throw out one runner and go 0-4 every time! Burnett and Posada drama is way to blown up… Molina is a career back up for a reason, Posoda has been a starter his whole career and has WS rings there is a reason!
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Come on MM, having a subpar Catcher who hits well and can throw isn’t going to lose the game by himself behind a team with the highest payroll in baseball.
We were talking about what’s best for the YAnkees and frankly if Burnett can pitch 7 shutout innings or 1 run for 7 innings behind Molina as opposed to possibly blowing up behind Jorge, I’d gladly give up Matsui in the batting order against lefties and you would too.
It’s one thing to admire Jorge, I do too, it’s another thing to deny the obvious.He is a very good hitter for a catcher, is a good teamate and used to be able to throw but he is far from a good defensive catcher.Never blocked the plate in his life and doesn’t make a good tag either, with all his other foibles.
What’s true is true even if we like the guy.
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YEA, Steinbrenners money and some special teammates.They won a Series the year before Jorge played also.
LOOK, I’ll root for Jorge and the Yankees either way but playing Molina and hitting Posada righty as a DH adds defense and subtracts little hitting becuase I odn’t think Matsui hits Lester anyway.
Jorge bats and rests his legs for the next game.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 1st, 2009 at 6:46 pm
I could see the Yankees resting Jorge in the 3rd game if they win the first two games with him in the lineup (assuming AJ starts on the third day). That would allow AJ and Molina to continue working on their impressive portfolio. Then again, based on reports, it’s become clear that the team will also opt for the longer series, meaning that Jorge will be well rested. I think he’ll play every game, but I guess you never know until it actually happens.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 1st, 2009 at 8:17 pm
I really doubt Girardi lets Molina catch AJ even if Posada did gets a day off, there is no way he wants to keep the “Posada-AJ fight” scenario going on any further, but I could be wrong.
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We’ll see how he plays it.
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