Ian Kennedy had a rough season. A year after failing to establish himself int e major leagues, Kennedy probably entered the season with a chip on his shoulder. Kennedy has a ridiculously impressive minor league resume:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | ERA | GS | SV | IP | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 24 | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre | IL | AAA | 1.59 | 4 | 0 | 22.2 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 1.103 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 9.9 | 3.57 |
| 2008 | 23 | 3 Teams | 3 Lgs | AAA-A_adv-Rook | 2.22 | 13 | 0 | 77.0 | 4 | 18 | 83 | 0.974 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 9.7 | 4.61 |
| 2007 | 22 | 3 Teams | 3 Lgs | A_adv-AA-AAA | 1.91 | 25 | 0 | 146.1 | 6 | 50 | 163 | 0.964 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 10.0 | 3.26 |
| 4 Seasons | 1.95 | 43 | 0 | 248.2 | 10 | 77 | 273 | 0.985 | 6.1 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 9.9 | 3.55 | ||||
| AAA (3 seasons) | 2.14 | 22 | 0 | 126.1 | 6 | 35 | 131 | 1.029 | 6.8 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 9.3 | 3.74 | ||||
| A_adv (2 seasons) | 1.19 | 11 | 0 | 68.0 | 2 | 23 | 76 | 0.941 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 10.1 | 3.30 | ||||
| AA (1 season) | 2.59 | 9 | 0 | 48.2 | 2 | 17 | 57 | 0.904 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 10.5 | 3.35 | ||||
A career K/9 of 9.9? An ERA of 1.95? A near-immediate rise to Triple-A without any loss to performance? Ian Kennedy has proven that he can pitch in the minor leagues. He had a rough time in the majors, but by no means entered the season beyond redemption.
And then the aneurysm came, and his world unraveled. Had happenstance not intervened, you could bet that Ian Kennedy would be in Chad Gaudin’s spot right now. And you can bet that the man is watching the playoffs knowing that fact.
Kennedy has a few things going for him. Unlike Hughes and Chamberlain, he entered the season with no workload concerns. While the Yankees probably wouldn’t be comfortable pitching him for 200 innings in 2009, they also probably aren’t going to be thinking too much about an innings count. He has a great track record of health, and a clean motion that few worry about.
The Yankees have some difficult decisions to make about their 2009 rotation. We probably can’t expect another big free agent addition, Joba Chamberlain could start the season in the minors, Phil Hughes could remain permanently in the bullpen, Chien-Ming Wang won’t be ready to start the season (and possibly won’t be tendered a contract), and the Yankees are already playing with an unfilled rotation.
I think that there is a pretty good chance that Kennedy makes the opening day roster as a 5th starter. And would that really be a bad thing? You’d be hard pressed to find someone with better success in the minors that isn’t yet in the major leagues. Kennedy will have plenty of competition in spring training from Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves, and maybe even Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister. But would you count him out?
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I have said many times that I am a big fan of Kennedy and still believe he can be mid-rotation innings eater, putting up the kind of raw results that you have seen from Ted Lilly over the last 3 seasons. I think that is a solid comp in temrs of stuff, if you leave handedness aside, except that Kennedy has slightly more velocity on his FB.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
Lilly is a lefty first off which gives him an advantage and in the AL Lilly has been and would be a mid 4 to 5 ERA guy with 1.4 and 1.5 WHIPS not bad but not great either, and he has an advantage over Kennedy because he is a lefty. So if Kennedy becomes a 4.5-5 ERA guy who can pitch close to 200 IP that is a win but that is about the ceiling on the guy in a best case scenario making him a 4th or 5th starter if he can sure up his control and mental issues.
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Hughes and Joba both go in the rotation. Kennedy will be a key man as Hughes will have innings limits. I could see us adding another swing arm as a hedge against injuries.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Just think about Rich Harden as your 4th starter with his stuff he could be an “ace” in the AL but in the 4th spot his walks and lack of 8 inning outings won’t hurt you at all and he has strike out stuff to dominate good offenses from a lower rotation spot. In the playoffs you would have a full 4 man rotation with Hughes and Joba in the pen again setting up for Mo.
Sabathia
Burnett
Pettitte
Harden
Joba/Hughes
You sign Harden as the 4th starter and then in Spring training you have Joba and and Hughes come in knowing that they are competing for the 5th spot so be ready to compete or not be in the rotation, and then if Joba earned the spot you send Hughes to the 8th inning as a set up man and if Hughes earns the spot you can send Joba to the minor leagues to get the innings he never got before.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
The Yankees want Hughes to start and get innings next year. If he doesn’t earn a rotation spot, he will be sent down, not to the 8th.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 6:05 pm
I didn’t say that’s what they would do did I? No, I didn’t, in fact I said it’s what I would do since I don’t believe in Hughes as a starter anyway if he didn’t beat out Joba he would be the 8th inning pitcher for ME. For those to be the Yankees plan I would have to know that Rich Harden is getting sign and I really don’t know if the Yankees will even think about him but it’s what I would do.
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Damnit, EJ! I’m working on a post write now saying the same things. I even have a similar Baseball Reference chart in mine. I don’t see him as the opening day fifth starter, though.
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I am still in the Kennedy to the bull pen crowd, it will raise his velocity to around 92 consistently and he can pitch a very important role giving us another Aceves long man.one inning guy who can do it all.
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I think the fact that his hits per year have gone up every year show that he the type of stuff that will be very hittable 3-4 times through the line up and if he doesn’t have great control he won’t be a great starter. If he moves to the pen and Hughes moves to the rotation we can use Aceves to help fill the set up role until we find something permanent and Kennedy can take over Aceves long man role.
I would also highly doubt Kennedy has the chance to be a 5th starter at the start of the season next year…
I expect the Yankees to sign at least one starter in the Rich Harden/Ben Sheets money area, someone they can bring in with real upside but with lower money expectations. I also expect Andy to come back and Joba and Hughes to work well enough in spring training for Cashman and Girardi to award both a rotation spot. Maybe Hughes will go to the pen at some point and maybe Joba goes to the minors later on but the starting rotation will be Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Joba, Hughes.
I would sign Harden as the 4th starter and let Joba and Hughes compete for the 5th spot.
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EJ Fagan Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
All due respect, but that is a silly criticism of Kennedy. His hit raise kept rising? Yeah, because they are regressing to a reasonable mean. 5.6 H/9 is an inhuman hit rate that no starter can maintain, and much of that was compiled at lower minor league levels. His statistics that aren’t based on luck – K, BB, HR rates – stayed almost exactly the same. And you can’t make any kind of generalization about his 2009 season in 22 innings.
Its also worth nothing that Kennedy maintained his K rate in the majors.
Move him to the bullpen based on that premise? That’s crazy. Starters struggle some times. It happens. Every time that some rookie has a rough outing, we can’t just move him to the bullpen and hope that all will be better. We’ve got a line out the door for potential relievers. We need starting pitchers, and Kennedy has all the assets of one.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
Ok EJ, that’s your opinion I don’t agree and since you think he will be the 5th starter then we aren’t going to agree on anything.
What I was outlining with the hits is that the more competition sees him the more he is going to get hit. He is the type of guy who thrive in the unknown but once you get enough at bats under your belt on the guy and more scouting reports are out on the guy he becomes vulnerable because he can’t blow you away and he has shaky control to boot.
I never said he should be in the pen because his hits went up I said he should be in the pen because he doesn’t stuff to be a starter going through the line up 3 or 4 times with the control he has. His strike out numbers can be explained by him throwing off speed stuff in fastball counts, pretty much any pitcher who can throw off speed pitches can dominate the minors because they are a bunch of underdeveloped fastball hitters who are learning to hit off speed. In 59 career inning he has 43 strike outs but his strike outs per 9 actually dropped from 07-08 so they didn’t stay the same as they were in the minors and in fact they didn’t stay the same from one year to another.
I don’t think Kennedy will ever be anything more a 5-6 inning 5th starter and we have a line out the door of guys that can do that so why not move him into the bullpen where he actually has a chance to stay on this team and contribute.
We obviously don’t see the same in Kennedy and I think you may be blinded by minor league stats, here’s the hint they don’t always translate, I watched him in the majors and he isn’t these numbers.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
HE never had less strike outs than innings in the minors and his first year in the majors he had 4 less Ks than IP and the following year in 20 more IP he had 12 less Ks than IP so his strike out rate has gone down and I would say will continue to go down in the major league level until he reaches 200 IP at which point I think he will K around 6 per 9 maybe 5.5-6 per 9.
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I think the Yankees have to put him in the bullpen for a season, similar to what they’ve done with Hughes. I think it’ll help him.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
He needs to pitch like Ace though no like Hughes, Hughes has stopped actually pitching and 90% of the time is just playing “hit it if you can” baseball, while Aceves pitches out of the pen like a starter mixing his pitches.
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EJ Fagan Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
I strongly disagree. What’s this newfound obsession that we Yankee fans have with putting good starting pitchers in the bullpen? I did a quick head count – how many starting pitchers who pitched over 200 innings this year went Starter – MLB Bullpen – MLB starter?
Of the 34 pitchers who pitched 200 innings or more in 2009, 30 broke in to the majors as a starting pitcher. Three spent their first two seasons in a starting and relieving role, and just one started as a relief pitcher (Adam Wainwright)
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
I don’t see Kennedy as a good starting pitcher and I don’t see Hughes as a dominate 1-2 starter so I have no problem putting either into the bullpen but if I was going to pick one who actually has the potential to be a 3 starter it would be Hughes. I am already on record as saying I don’t Aceves or Kennedy as anything more than mediocre 5 starters and nothing else, they are both better off in the bull pen.
Kennedy pitching 200 innings for us is a death sentence to the team because he isn’t good enough at this time to pitch that many innings and succeed doing it.
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I would almost say I would rather see McAllister get the first crack at a staring spot over Nova, Kennedy, Gaudin, Sergio Mitre or Aceves…
Nova is a less talented McAlister and the same can be said for Mitr who is also quie a bit older and Kennedy, Gaudin and Aceves can all provide more out of the pen then Mcallister can… He should at least get a start or two to see what he can offer this season.
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Greg F. Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
Recent scouting reports have McAllister at 89 MPH, that severely limits his ceiling. I see the rotation as CC, Pettitte, Burnett, Joba, and Hughes, with Kennedy, Nova, et al waiting for their chance.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
As a sinker ball pitcher it doesn’t hurt him as much as it would a guy throwing 4 seams up in the zone, I had heard before the injury he was in the low 90’s and could touch the mid 90’s at times and if he gets back to that after the Winter to rest and get in shape he has a very high ceiling for a 4 or 5 starter and he could eventually reach a 3 starter… No one projects the guy as an ace but he should be a very solid sinker ball pitcher.
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EJ Fagan Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
McAllister is a very tall guy with a ton of natural sink. Don’t worry about the scouting reports – his velocity is pretty much MLB average, but fluctuates on some different nights.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
I agree the guy is a 6′6 sinker ball pitcher with off speed pitches he should be fine throwing 88-93.
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I also have liked IPK and think he should get a chance to win a spot in the rotation next year, which I think he can win. IPK has the stuff and C&C to make a good 4/5 starter for the Yanks, a 3/4 starter for some other teams.
I think the Yanks want to go younger as they have stated, therefore I believe Andy will not be offered and our starters next year may be; CC, AJ, Phil, Joba, and IPK. Gaudin may supplant one of the later three as he also deserves a chance to be in the rotation.
I see the BP additions to be Z-Mac, Dunn and Nova. Just my opinion!
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
If our rotation is CC, AJ, Joba, Hughes and Kennedy we will come in 3rd to the Rays guaranteed! Kennedy is no where near good enough to come in and start every 5 days for us no way! I also don’t believe that either Hughes or Joba are good enough to be 3 starters right now and if Andy doesn’t come back it will only be by his own choice, the Yankees will offer him a contract guaranteed.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 9:26 pm
Sabathia- 3.30 ERA
Burnett- 3.80 ERA
Chamberlain- 4.30 unless he is back to 08 starting Joba
Hughes- 4.50 ERA
Kennedy- 5.00 ERA
I would venture to say starting those guys with the innings they would have to log they wouldn’t produce much better than those numbers… especially when you consider Kennedy has never thrown more than 39 innings in a year in the majors. I think you are highly over estimating both Hughes and Kennedy’s abiltity to handle those kind of innings and produce playoff type numbers right away.
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EJ Fagan Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
There’s a great book called, “How to lie with statistics”. You should read it. Or perhaps you already have.
I’d also like to point out that if that rotation (that doesn’t include Pettitte), we’d have a better rotation than this year.
This deserves a full post and will get one before I go to sleep tonight.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
I obvious had to give AJ some improvement in order to justify that rotation but no I highly disagree with you on that one!
Pettitte Vs Chamberlain
Chamberlain Vs Hughes
Gaudin Vs Kennedy
Pettitte is a better 3rd starter than either Chamberlain or Hughes at this point and Hughes next year will have to learn to start and use all his pitches all over again in a starting format which will take some adjusting to especially since he won’t be throwing 95 anymore since he wont be in the pen and as it currently stands I would take Gaudin to beat Kennedy in a game but neither would go 6 innings.
With out Pettitte we have a really young, inexperienced and badly set up rotation… Just look at this years match ups with the Angles with that rotation.
Sabathia Vs Lackey
Burnett Vs Saunders
Chamberlain Vs Weaver
Hughes Vs Kazmir
I am pretty sure we lose both of the last two games in that series and I really doubt we can trust those two and Kennedy to be 3/5 of the starting… 3/5 of the rotation would have never seen 200 IP before and they would be responsible for getting us in the playoffs.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 14th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
I also went conservative on the ERAs so no one would say I was trying to make Hughes and Kennedy look bad… Truthfully I think Hughes would have a similar ERA to Joba this year or higher even and Joba I put at 4.3 but I would expect closer to 4.5 if he is still throwing 91 and Kennedy getting a 5 is really generous for me but I don’t think anyone here will give an ERA higher than 5 any credit because I am sure you guys all expect him to have 200 IP and a 3.30 ERA haha. If Burnett doesn’t improve and CC takes a step back that rotation is god awful.
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Coming out of 2007, I was more impressed with Kennedy than Hughes and Joba. He pitched well as a starter in both the regular season and post. I don’t know what happened to him in ‘08, but I think has earned a shot in ‘10 along with Joba and Hughes (and followed closely by Ivan). Let them pitch. Let them compete.Let the best rise to the top, the rest may be moved to the pen or traded.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 15th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
Actually Zach McAllister is a lot more highly rated than Ivan Nova who is basically a less talented McAllister, and at this point I would have Zach above Kennedy on the list of who gets a starting spot. I just don’t believe that Kennedy has the stuff or the command to be successful long term in the rotation, he will only be able to have the advantage when the hitter doesn’t know what he is facing, once he starts to get seen and scouted you see his numbers get worse. He will never be able to manage good line ups enough time to justify being a starter, the Red Sox would kill him if he were to be a starter for the Yankees regularly.
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