I’m going to do this bullet point style because frankly, I’m too disgusted with the sportswriters and fans who keep screaming ‘over managing’ like wounded seals. I didn’t expect the Yanks to go 11-0 in the post season, but apparently I don’t have much company.
-Joe Girardi has ‘over managed’ this bullpen to a 2.21 ERA in the post season and 5-1 record. If we had maintained that all season, we would have had the best bullpen ERA in the American League by 1.33 Runs.
-The people screaming about Girardi being too stat driven are also killing him replacing Robertson with Aceves based on 2 ABs. That’s not what he did. He said he liked the MATCH UP better, which referred to the scouting report saying that Mathis is more of a dead red fastball hitter and Aceves having an assortment of breaking pitches to throw at him. If you bothered to listen to Girardi’s post game press conference, you would know this.
-NoMass broke down the Aceves move nicely, though still disagreed with it. That’s fair, at least they know what they’re talking about.
We can only speculate that Girardi made the move because Aceves throws everything but the kitchen sink (only 43% of his pitches are fastballs), whereas Robertson primarily throws a fastball (76% of total pitches) and Howie Kendrick sits dead red, being 9.4 runs above average against fastballs in 2009.
We can appreciate a manager who is aware of these types of statistics, but when a quality reliever is rolling along (like Robertson was) and there’s no immediate threat, just let him pitch.
I would counter by saying that if Dave Robertson was left in the game and the result was the same, then the people who are all screaming ‘over managing’ would have been asking where Aceves was. As a manager, you can’t win. If the player doesn’t do his job then whatever you did was wrong, even if it made more sense at the time you made the decision.
-Nothing in Baseball is ever 100%. Even making the right move doesn’t always work. For those who need a refresher course, I suggest this Paul DePodesta blog piece.
-Nick Swisher, Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera, the Yanks being 0-8 with RISP all had nothing to do with this loss. It all gets put squarely on the shoulders of Joe Girardi. Gotcha.
-The ‘genius’ Mike Scioscia was warming up his Game 5 starter last night, because that’s the only pitcher left who he had available. Say what you want about Girardi’s bullpen use, he has every one of his relievers available for tonight’s game and Scioscia doesn’t. If that becomes a factor tonight, Girardi will get zero credit from many fans and sportswriters, who assume everyone will be available and effective every day. But of course, that’s not reality.
-All of the people who screamed for Joba and Hughes to be left in longer got their wish last night. How’d that work out for you guys? You might want to check the expiration date on your crystal ball.
Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News
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I think you are wrong in stating that had Robertson been left in the game, people would have asked where Aceves was. Robertson have been lights out this year while Aceves have been an average reliever. Plus, a pitcher with Robertson’s K ratio is what you want to have in this situation. Robertson is just a better pitcher and there was no reason to pull him out of the game. Also, I think Girardi have been phenomenal up until now in managing the bullpen. However, yesterday night he made a mistake that partly cost the yankees the game. That’s far from being the end of the world, but they lost. Let’s hope they start a new winning streak tonight.
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Joe O Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 9:30 am
I’m with John on this one. When he pulls a righty to bring in a lefty and turn a batter around (like he did in game 2 when he pulled Aceves for Marte) I get it. When he pulls one lefty to bring in another and then pulls a righty who is cruising to bring in another righty I don’t get it. Had Robertson given up a homer people would not have said he should have been pulled before that at bat (the move which girardi made), they may have said Aceves is a better pitcher and should have been in for the entire 11th (which I think we all disagree with). Bottom line is when you are on the road in extra innings there is little to no margin of error. Every playoff loss hurts but they got to put it behind them and move on.
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Dan Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Whoever origionally wrote this is exactly right, Aceves made a mistake and left a cutter(or a 2 seamer) up in the zone and mathis crushed it, thats good hitting, all you can say
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Chris H. Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
That’s bad pitching more than good hitting.
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Sorry, but Girardi really blew this one. There are times to play the percentages and there are times to just go with what you have. Grady Little should have played the percentages in Game 7 in 2003 (it was common knowledge that Pedro fell off a cliff after he hit 100 pitches. Why didn’t he take him out?), but Girardi should have just gone for it last night. Robterson has shown himself capable of getting outs in big spots, and given how well he had pitched for the first two outs, I don’t see why he couldn’t have gotten out of it, even if he did give up a hit to Mathis. Ace has been shaky for a while now, and he showed it in quickly giving up the game when all he needed to get was one out. When you have the choice of a lights out guy or a guy who might be better on paper but has been shakier in actual games, you really need to just go lights out.
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The Yanks were not going to win last night even if Ace gets the last out that inning. They didn’t have Rivera if they got the lead in extra innings. The would have blown any small lead if they got one. They can’t beat the Angels in close games in LA. Now watch Scioscia walk A-Rod in every tight spot, letting the other Yanks beat them. You have to sweep your nemesis. If the Red Sox held on to win that game 3 I believe they would have won that series.
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There are other things to question as well like pulling Damon for Hariston. Maybe Damon gets that ball because for all the bad mouthing he gets his d in the post season has been very good plus losing the dh ended up hurting as well. In the end though, I agree with dlogan that even if the Yankees score in the top of the inning it would have been tough to close it out without Phil or Mo.
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“I would counter by saying that if Dave Robertson was left in the game and the result was the same, then the people who are all screaming ‘over managing’ would have been asking where Aceves was. As a manager, you can’t win.” I could not disagree with you more. I don’t believe Girardi would have gotten any criticism at all if he had left Robertson in and had the same result. Noone was expecting him to pull Robertson and so noone would have complained. They would have blamed Robertson, not Girardi. I am one who believes Girardi is too stat driven. Sometimes you have to go with the flow of the game and manage with your gut. Billy Martin was the best at that. Although Billy had his flaws, he was the best “in game” manager that I have ever seeen. Girardi’s style leaves him open to criticism. Of course it is important to understand statistical matchups and that has it’s place, but sometimes, when a pitcher is in no trouble at all, you should just let him pitch.
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It is not as though Girardi is simply guilty of pulling Roberstson in favor of Aceves. There were multiple head-scrathching move made during Game 3. Girardi replaced Matsui with Gardner when the team was carrying a designated pinch runner. The aftermath was that Gardner was unavailable as a defensive replacement. In fact we used 3 players as a DH in this game when if Girardi had planned accordingly he wouldn’t have burned out his bench. I still have not heard a reasonable explanation of why both Damaso Marte and Phil Coke were used to pitch to consecutive batters. Lastly, the Aceves for Robertson move was just plain nutty. In retrospect this change wouldn’t matter much if Girardi hadn’t been doing this all year. But he has consistently pulled effective relievers and replaced them with arms that have been struggling. How many times did we see Phil Hughes get pulled in favor of Brian Bruney?
This loss is reminiscent of the Game 4 (or was it Game 5) loss in the 2003 World Series. That was the night Joe Torre somehow thought he could win a World Series game with Jeff Weaver on the mound in extra innings. We never recovered from the defeat. This loss is some excruciating that if the Yankee’s don’t win the series they should consider replacing Girardi.
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Lou Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Amen, I started typing my reply up around 8:30, but then work got in the way. I couldn’t agree with you more. If I had read this first I may have just said Ditto.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
Really? Fire him after a 103 win season based on one game? That is so ridiculous.
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Lou Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Sorry, but his moves reek of a man who wants to put his fingerprints on the win. Very few managerial moves win games, but they sure can blow games. The Yankees would have finished with the best record in the majors no matter who managed them this year. They had the talent. Another manager, however, could have kept a little better eye on the future and got Hughes a few more innings so we are not stuck with “Phil Rules” in 2010, but Joe didn’t. He decided to use a starter for parts of innings. Genius or short sided? I vote short sided. Don’t even get me started on the regular season bunts even though he has a line-up leading the world in OBP and SLG.
On another note, I was glad to see Torre go and wanted Girardi as his replacement. I was wrong.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Very few managerial moves win ball games… I think Mike S and his perfectly timed pitch out disagree with you!
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Couldn’t be more wrong. Other than wanting to be a contrarian, there is no defense for Girardi. NoMaas presented why you might make the change for one batter, but they correctly noted this wasn’t a one batter situation. Managing to keep a 4-year player with 22 career HRs in the ballpark is the definition of over managing. I actually wanted to see Aceves start the inning (figured he was less prone to putting a man on via the walk), but once you see how sharp Robertson is, you roll with him. Plain and simple….case closed. Instead, Girardi burned him after two quick out and played bullpen roulette. I appreciate the confidence he has in the bullpen, but if you keep cycling through all those pitchers you are eventually going to find the loaded chamber. Hopefully, last’s night’s gift by Girardi to the Angels is only a flesh wound to the Yankees and not a death blow.
Also, Jon is right. There are a half dozen other questionable moves made by Girardi (on Saturday as well), so it’s not like this is an isolated incident. He has been a awful game manager all season and he has carried it into the post season. I guess we shouldn’t be surprised, but it sure is a shame that this talented club is saddled with such a poor manager.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 11:59 am
Yeah, that is ridiculous hyperbole on your part. Joe has done a great job this year, and made one mistake yesterday. All of his other moves made sense.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
I think the only real questionable move is the Robertson decision. Outside of that, everything he did can be substantively defended.
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Lou Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
All his other moves made sense? Please provide some insight on the following:
Why did he use both lefties in the pen to face back to back batters?
Why did he run Gardner for Matsui, and ultimately replace him, when he used a roster spot on a designated pinch runner?
Why did he pinch hit Hairston for Gardner when what we needed was base runners? (Gardner does have a higher OBP)
Why did he sacrifice the DH to change his LF when he was going to pitch to only righties? (How often does a righty pull the ball to LF on Rivera?; Note: this move compounded with the prior move killed the offense and essentially made the best case scenario innings and innings of Gaudin on the mound and at the plate)
Why did he remove the best postseason pitcher in history for Cervelli (a 3rd string catcher, who can’t hit and doesn’t have power) with 2 outs an no one on?
These moves do not make sense to me.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Here I go.
1. Why does everyone love Damaso Marte all of a sudden? He got one out, we should be glad that he did that much. He’s been all over the place all year, why leave him in for more than a batter?
2. Gardner is the best baserunner on the team. If Freddy Guzman was in there you’d be asking, why not run Gardner instead? I’ll take Gardner over Guzman in that situation, 9 times out of 10.
3. Hairston is a professional, veteran hitter and Gardner is a rookie. I would have liked to see Gardner in there, but this isn’t a move that will kill you (Hairston can run, too, like Gardner).
4. Removing Damon was one of the better moves Girardi has made. If Damon were to catch a ball and lob it in when another player could have made a stronger throw to home, you’d be asking, why didn’t Girardi remove Damon for a defensive replacement?
5. He removed Rivera because he threw 30+ pitches the other day and 17 last night. Do you not want him available today in a game that features CC on short rest? I don’t think so.
Those moves can all be defended (some more than others). The D-Rob-Aceves one is the hardest to figure out.
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Lou Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
1. You have explained why he should have just used Coke, not why he should have used both relievers.
2. Gardner is also the teams best defensive OF, by UZR the best defensive player on the team. You just gave him the DH spot.
3. Yes, but now you have taken your most versatile defender and your best defender and used them at DH. The gain they provided was minimal at best each time while the risk was great.
4. All the more reason why he shouldn’t have used his two defensive replacements at DH. But again, what were the odds of a righty hitter hitting a fly ball to LF on Rivera?
5. Rivera threw 25 pitches on Saturday, not 30+. Girardi managed every other move like there was two out in the bottom of the ninth inning in game seven of the WS, down by 1. I would buy the save him for tomorrow reasoning if he had used it in making any of the above 4 decisions.
Now, I agree that in a vacuum these moves can be defended but not collectively.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
We could honestly go over the reasoning for each of these moves for hours at a time. This, then, makes them somewhat understandable. Again, the Robertson-Aceves move is really the only one that didn’t have any clear defense, really.
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toby koby Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
y
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toby koby Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
why did removing Marte only after one pitch for his only other lefty make sense?
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If game three was a home game the Aceves for robertson move may be considered passable. Once Aceves is brought in, Chad Gaudin is the only arm left in the bullpen. But you are on the road, have to score in the top of the 12th, then close out the bottom half.
If this game stays tied, what next? Aceves pitches the 12th, Gaudin in the 13th then he has to bat all night? Meanwhile the only pinch hitters available are Freddy Guzman and Jose Molina, who can’t pitch hit in case anything happens to Posada.
In addition, Robertson faced two batters, Juan Rivera grounds out to Jeter, Kendry Morales flys out to shallow leftfield, while Robertson is pitching with great control, making sure to keep his pitches to Morales well on the outer half of the plate. Only 11 pitches. The dude is rolling through the inning and there’s time to make a change? You believe any fan would be able to justify bringing Aceves in after 11 pitches? Quite doubtful
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I also do not agree that fans/sports writers would have questioned the “non” move. It would make sense to keep some resources in the BP. It is a tie game, and unlike All Star games it cannot end in tie. I thought it was crazy to use all your bullets so soon. What if the game goes 18 – 20 innings? Do you want Gaudin to have to go 9?
Also to suggest that Scioscia had no one left is absurd. What he was showing was that it was a must win game for his team and he was going to lose wit his best. Lackey was his best. It didn’t mean he didn’t have other options. It meant that with the season on the line he wasn’t going to lose without his best guy on the mound. For example, Palmer was still available.
In the future if you are going to defend poor moves by criticizing the other teams manager please be accurate. I think Mike gets way too much credit, but Girardi deserves all the blame he is getting. I am a true believer that the manager has a lot more of an opportunity to screw things up than he does to make things work. Yesterday he was a big reason why they lost and on Saturday the Yanks won in spite of him. (Yes, that’s right he took the middle of our order and turned it into A-Rod, Guzman, Gardner – disgusting)
Again this wasn’t the only head scratcher he had more:
Why we used both lefties in the pen to face back to back batters – Does Girardi think there is a rule requiring him to use all pitchers in the pen?
Why we pinch hit Hairston for Gardner when what we needed was base runners – Gardner does have a higher OBP. Also, if you are not going to have Gardner bat why not pinch run Guzman? Then you have Gardner as a defensive replacement in late innings.
I thought it was very questionable to bring Hairston into the OF, after he was already in the DH slot, which in turn, sacrificed the DH with the pitcher batting the next inning.
Why did he pinch hit Cervelli (who really can’t hit and has no power) taking our best pitcher out of the game with 2 outs and no one on. Take the out, give Rivera the ball and have the meat of the order get the job done the next inning. (This is why Hinske should be on the roster)
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One more point…yes, Robertson throws mostly fastballs, but he also has a great curve. If you really fear Kendrick hitting the fastball, you can simply have Robertson throw more breaking pitches. The obviousness of the situation is mind numbing.
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Dave Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
EXACTLY! If Kendrick is a good fastball hitter, then that is information that your pitcher and catcher should use when deciding what pitch to throw — its called a “scouting report”.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Kendrick is 1 run above average per 100 fastballs. He’s above average .3 runs/100 curveballs, and negative for other offspeed pitches. Robertson is above average for his fastball (1.03 runs) and below average for his curveball (-1.43). Aceves is below average for his fastball (-.06) and above average for his offspeed stuff (CT: .99, CB: 1.42, CH: 3.42). That seems like solid logic for making the change.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
I still think you have to go with the most recent data set when comparing two pitchers. You have Robertson who just blew through Rivera and Morales—two more powerful hitters than Kendrick—and then you have Kendrick, who probably wouldn’t have hit a HR. Also, Aceves has struggled with his command lately, so it’s hard to really defend the call, although I get what Girardi was trying to do. Why didn’t GIrardi simply walk Kendrick and then go after Mathis if he was really that scared of him?
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Damn, can Joe G do anything right?
I notice a lot of fans joined this thread to-day, even if it is only to ask for Joes’ head. Why is he (or any manager) good when the players do their job, and he is a really bad manager when they don’t? He manages the way he does, you win a few and you lose a few but, his wins have all been tied to the ability of the players. No manager is infallible, they all make a questionable move every once in a while.
I questioned pulling Robertson but, there may be a good reason (not the one he gave) for the move…I don’t know but, I do know we as fans can question his moves all day, they don’t change.
We have another game today, they can go up 3-1 to day.
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Zac Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 11:24 am
99 out of 100 times a Major League Manager doesn’t bring in his second to last pitcher in an AWAY game that is tied.
Most times a manager doesn’t walk ARod with 2 outs and no one on in the ninth inning.
But Scoscia’s move had logical reason while Girardi’s did not.
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Lou Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
I joined the thread today because of fantastic blogging by Steve S. He posted something that he new would get us going, and good for him. If he had simply wrote about everything I was thinking I would have read the article (as I usually do) with no reply. His view compelled me to refute his claims. I do not know Steve, and I do not know if he actually agrees with what he wrote. I am certain, however, that he new it would be a hot issue and a discussion starter. Well done.
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Giraradi’s move cannot be justified either statistically or by the flow of the game.
“Even making the right move doesn’t always work. For those who need a refresher course, I suggest this Paul DePodesta blog piece.”
Agreed. DePoDesta argues correctly that the result can be wrong even if the process is correct. By corollary, the result can turn out right even though the process is wrong. The fact that “Girardi has ‘over managed’ this bullpen to a 2.21 ERA in the post season and 5-1 record” doesn’t necessarily means that his bullpen moves in the post season have been correct up until now. Similar to the blackjack player who hit on 17 and landed a 4, it can be argued that Girardi was fortunate in both Game 2 of the ALDS and Game 2 of the ALCS with his utilization of the bullpen and, as Will graphically points out, his luck was due to change.
“He said he liked the MATCH UP better, which referred to the scouting report saying that Mathis is more of a dead red fastball hitter and Aceves having an assortment of breaking pitches to throw at him.”
That may be true but the reality is that the run expectancy for a team with a team with two outs and nobody on is .117.(TangoTiger) Given the fact that the next two batters were Kendrick. with little home run power and Mathis, with an OPS of under 600 were the next two batters, drives the probability even lower making their chance of scoring a run against EITHER Robertson or Aceves in this situation less than 10%. The move from Robertson to Aceves was statistically UNNECESSARY.This is the deffiniton of over managing Given the specific facts of the game- Robertson pitching well, lack of pitchers left in the bullpen, etc- it was not only unnecessary, it was probably wrong.
“Say what you want about Girardi’s bullpen use, he has every one of his relievers available for tonight’s game and Scioscia doesn’t.”
Because of the situation in the series and the game, Sciosia had to go to his bullpen earlier and use Oliver and Jepsen longer than he would have under ideal circumstances. Plus his bullpen is one short as compared to the Yankees to begin with. Still, he’ll be well prepared for tonight.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Really? he got lucky in Game 2? I thought he was masterful in Game 2, pulling guys at exactly the right time.
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Lou Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Yes Really. Beyond lucky. He left the Yankees with a heart of the order of A-Rod, Guzman, and Gardner, and got our BP to the point when Gaudin was sitting by his lonesome in the rain. If Izturis doesn’t bail out Girardi by that bonehead play the Yankess are left with a depleted line-up and an empty pen. Masterful, I think not.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 20th, 2009 at 7:17 pm
You have no choice but to pinch run Matsui when he did… It was extra innings so he had to use most of his pitchers…. He did a good job in game 2, had izturis just gone to first it’s runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs so the Yankees still have a chance to win the game with out an error.
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Though I can’t say I agree with Joe Gs move, I have a hard time criticizing it without knowing the data he had on hand. Neither pitcher had a record against the hitter, so you’re groping blind. And its not as if this was a tough situation – this is 2 outs, no one on. Aceves has been able to do this all year, and it doesn’t seem like it was asking too much.
However, I refuse to believe Joe G would have gotten as much criticism for leaving DRob in. DRob had been reliable all post season, and worked out of plenty of jams. If he had blown it, most fans would have shrugged their shoulders and accepted he couldn’t be perfect. No one is going to bitch about letting a hot hand pitch over Aceves or Gaudin, after only 2 batters.
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All post season there have been grumblings of him going with matchups too often. Especially in extra innings, you need to look for length out of these guys, you can’t always go with the matchups in these situations. This isn’t about the Yankees going 11-0 in the playoffs, it’s about a pattern that has developed that is becoming increasingly problematic.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 21st, 2009 at 4:19 pm
looking for length can cost your bullpen down the road so it is a very thin line!
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