“Momentum? Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.“
- Earl Weaver
The Yankees have been playing out the string for a week now, and much of the talk you read floating around the blogosphere and you hear around talk radio is about momentum. Who’s hot going into the playoffs? Who’s limping into the postseason? But does momentum really exist in baseball. The famous quote above would seem to indicate that, no, there is no such thing. Does it matter at all, that the Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 10 and been owned by the Yanks the last few series? Does it matter that Minnesota is red hot, winning 7 of 10 and reeling in the slumping Tigers by handfuls of their striped tail?
Let’s take a look at recent seasons and how teams fared going into the playoffs to find out if there is any correlation or not.
2008: Last year, the Phillies came into the postseason winning 7 of 10, stepping over the rotting corpse of the NY Mets on the way to a dominant World Series championship. Despite not having starting pitching depth throughout the long season, some hot pitchers and a healthy Hamels supplied enough support for the bats to shine forth as the rotation was trimmed down and more rest aided their talented but overused bullpen. Momentum may have played a role, but the Phils roster was also constructed in such a way as to benefit from the postseason schedule.
2007: The Red Sox were a modest 6-4 in their last 10 games of a competitive A.L. race, with all playoff teams winning 94-96 games. The hot team going into the playoffs, however, were the Colorado Rockies, going 9-1 in their last 10. Their momentum seemed to play a role as they swept their way all the way to the World Series, where the Sox booted them to the curb. The Rockies seem to be a genuine momentum case as, outside of that one run, they really never showed any other signs of greatness.
2006: Thus far, it seems as if momentum plays a pretty significant role, but the 06 Series would seem to give lie to the myth. The Cardinals headed into the playoffs losing 7 of their last 10 while their WS opponent, the Tigers, went through a similar collapse, losing their last 5 games. All the pundits declared both teams as surefire casualties of the first round. The Dodgers and Padres, meanwhile were media darlings, winning 9 and 8 of 10 respectively yet both bowed out in their initial series.
The Yankees’ own history mirrors these past few years of champions and disappointments. In 2002, the Yankees went into the postseason winning 8 of 10 and their last 5, yet flamed out against the Angels in 4 games. As great as this season has been, and as much as pundits claim the Twins, Tigers and Red Sox have no chance against the big, bad Yankees, historically, it’s just not true. This is baseball and anyone can beat anyone in a short series. Though some teams have certainly gotten hot and sustained it throughout the playoffs, the postseason is a different animal, with a different schedule and different rhythms that often negate any hot or cold streak going in. Momentum, schmomentum.
Don’t forget 2000 when the Yankees couldn’t have played worse leading up to the playoffs and then we all know what happened after that. Rob A from BBD(Quote)
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good point, I wanted to include that year but I was having trouble finding detailed stats and info re: the end of the season. They had the race wrapped up really early, but proceeded to absolutely collapse the last couple or three weeks. They won the division with, like 87 wins or something. The pundits definitely predicted disaster but I think most rational folks knew the Yanks would put it together when it counted. Tom Gaffney(Quote)
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Rob A from BBD Reply:
October 3rd, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Not to mention, they beat Seattle Mariners who were amazing that season. It wasn’t like they had an easy path to the WS. Rob A from BBD(Quote)
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Tom Gaffney Reply:
October 3rd, 2009 at 11:16 pm
Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself with the Yanks playing the role of the Seattle Mariners. You know, though, I was never scared of the M’s that year. As many games as they won, that pen was nothing special and our top 4 rotation was clearly better than theirs. I don’t think they set up well for the postseason. While you could argue our current top 4 is vulnerable, our pen looks really tough, espectially if Robertson can come back 100% Tom Gaffney(Quote)
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Hey it’s basbeall, anything can happen, right? Simon(Quote)
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One thing I’ve learned in my 50 or so years of watching baseball: if Earl Weaver said it, it’s probably true. oldpep(Quote)
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Tom Gaffney Reply:
October 3rd, 2009 at 11:12 pm
of course, he also said, “Every time I fail to smoke a cigarette between innings, the opposition will score.”
though I’m pretty fond of:
“Nobody likes to hear it, because it’s dull, but the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.”
and
“We’re so bad right now that for us back-to-back home runs means one today and another one tomorrow.”
“You can’t sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You’ve got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That’s why baseball is the greatest game of them all.” Tom Gaffney(Quote)
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This is interesting anecdotal evidence to support your claim and, as a long-time Yankees fan, I want to believe it. But I’m curious if anyone knows of any statistical analyses and whether they draw the same conclusion. It would seem that this point lends itself to that kind of quantitative approach — is there in fact no correlation between end-of-season performance and eventual outcomes in the post-season? yanksfaninRI(Quote)
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Tom Gaffney Reply:
October 4th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
so tough to say b/c of the sample sizes. For so many years, there were only 2 playoff teams from leagues that never played each other, so you can’t use any of those seasons. You’d also have to separate the divison championship era from the wild card era, so you can really only judge from 1995-2008 – a very small period. Interestingly (though not closely related to your question), in those 14 years, a wild card team has won it all 4 times, giving demonstrating that regular season success doesn’t necessarily correlate to postseason success (but I guess we all knew that). I think all these stats do is reinforce the unpredictable nature of the game in which a team with a couple hot pitchers can beat anybody (see Arizona Diamondbacks). Not scientific, I know. I’ll shoot an e-mail to fangraphs – maybe they’ll tackle the issue. Tom Gaffney(Quote)
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yanksfaninRI Reply:
October 4th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
Good points, all. I further wonder if anyone has analyzed this on an individual level, i.e., does batting and pitching performance during the last weeks of the season correlate with post-season individual performance? Ultimately, we only care about predicting the team’s performance — I only care that the Yanks win the World Series, but don’t especially care about which players were the stars and which flamed out. But, there must be some relationship between the aggregate of individual player performances and how the team does. And there is no doubt a larger sample size of player performances to work with.
Just wonderin’, that’s all. So long as we win, who cares, right? Good post, Tom. yanksfaninRI(Quote)
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Tom Gaffney Reply:
October 4th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
thanks, man Tom Gaffney(Quote)
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I think the 2000 yanks lost the last 7 games of the season heading into the playoffs. Mikegyro(Quote)
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I just checked baseball almanac and the 2000 Yankees lost 13 out of their last 15 games, the last 7 straight, and still managed to win the world series. So much for momentum. Mikegyro(Quote)
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Tom Gaffney Reply:
October 5th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Thanks Mike,
I knew it was bad, but I forgot it was THAT bad. Even so, I was always pretty sure they were going to win it all. That team just knew somehow how to get it done when it counted – more than any other team I’ve ever seen. Tom Gaffney(Quote)
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