Here’s a quick starting pitcher breakdown:
The gray highlights indicate the perceived advantage. This advantage is based on the pitcher’s regular season numbers, although I have factored in oppositional history, as well, albeit marginally. Therefore, CC is better than Lackey (he can dominate any lineup, regardless of his season numbers against LA), Burnett is better than Saunders, Weaver is better than Pettitte though both have struggled against their respective opponents, and, if the Yankees are forced to trot out Chad Gaudin or Joba Chamberlain in Game 4, then Scott Kazmir would definitely have the advantage in that particular outing (note—the Gaudin and Kazmir numbers featured above are based solely on the innings with their current teams).
If Saunders has a good game in him, which we know he does, then the series will be pretty even. The Yankees’ starters have better stuff and strike out more opponents, but the Angels walk fewer hitters. Plus, they have a better defense behind them. If the Yankees can start CC on 3 days rest for game 4, it will likely tip the series in their favor. That, of course, is contingent upon the weather.
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The Weather is the biggest X factor in this whole thing… If it’s raining and the games are being played it should slow down the Angels running game because of the wet surface upon which they would be running and if a game gets canceled and an off day becomes a game day then we lose CC for a me 4 and have to re-decide how to attack this Angles team with our rotation and Gaudin becomes the guy we go to in game 4.
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Yankees could actually lose this series…it won’t be easy.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
No really? Thanks for your genius insight to the game of baseball… Anyone can win a 7 game series… No one is saying it will be easy or the Yankees will for sure win only you Angel fans are.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
It’s a pretty even series. It’ll be a hard fought victory.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
At this point I just want it to get started and be over with so all these Angle fans can get a life and we actually discuss baseball in whatever fashion it will be… At this point I have almost lost my excitement for the series to begin because of the BS.
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Seems like people want to bill this as speed Vs power but in reality it’s a speed team with more than enough power and a power team with more than enough speed so at the end of the day it will come down to pitching in the starting rotation and bull pen.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
People seem to forget that the Yankees stole 111 bases this year.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Also they had one of the best stolen base rates in all of baseball because unlike the Angels we don’t just run to run, when the Yankees run they are doing it to get the base the Angels don’t care if they are thrown out they just care you know they are running.
Jeter- 30 SB and 5 thrown out
Gardner- 26 SB and 5 thrown out
Arod 14 SB and 2 thrown out
Damon a perfect 12 for 12
Cabrera 10 SB caught 2 times
When you consider Gardner missed a lot of time with his thumb, Alex missed a month with hip and missed one game every week after wards and Damon had leg injuries all year they could have stole even more bases… The 14 for Alex with only 2 caught stealing is really amazing considering he had hip surgery and couldn’t even slide on his hip a week before he started playing. Heck even Guzman got 4 out of 5 bases and he only played in 5 or 6 games.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Yea, the Yankees have been good at advancing this year, too. Their speed score is pretty close to the Angels’ score. They’re just a solid team with a lot of weapons.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Really offensively you couldn’t have picked two better teams to battle it out in the ALCS but I think the Yankees pen and solid threesome of starting pitchers puts the Yankees over the top.
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I’ve been involved in some way with baseball since the 60’s. With recent technological advances, it’s become possible to see every inning of every game. I’ve come close to that the last 2 years. I don’t often look at or consider stats in my choices so forgive me but, out of all those pitchers listed above, I’d take CC, AJ and Andy before I’d pick anyone else. If I were picking for the long term and not one game today, I’d take Chamberlain next. I might even take Joba next for one game today, I’d at least have to think about it. If not, I’d take Lackey and then Joba.
Injuries are more of a concern than usual in the cold on a wet field, especially for pitchers, outfielders and baserunners. I’m more worried about that than the Angels.
Yanks have been coasting for 2 months and beating the hell out of everyone for longer and I expect that to continue, because of that and not because of any paperwork.
No offense.
Howie Kendrick needs to go down.
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
I would take CC and AJ over everyone else but after that the list is Lackey, Weaver, Kazmir, Saunders and then maybe Joba… Chamberlain as a reliever doesn’t provide as much value as a starter and Joba as a starter this year is no where near any of the guys starting in this series.
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Chris H. Reply:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
Andy’s experience is something I failed to consider, but the Weaver-Pettitte matchup seems very close (in my opinion).
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The other Chris H Reply:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:23 pm
The Weaver Pettitte match up could be the one to turn this series one way over the other and it will come down to better stuff Vs experience.
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