This week, we saw two historic achievements by Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki. They got me thinking: which active (and recently retired) players belong in the Hall of Fame? Our era has produced a lot of superstars – more than I realized before I tried to put together a list – and they could start crowding the Hall of Fame pretty quickly. My list:
The No-Doubters
- Albert Pujols
- Greg Maddux
- Derek Jeter
- Mariano Rivera
- Ivan Rodriguez
- Pedro Martinez
- Randy Johnson
- Ichiro Suzuki
- Craig Biggio
- Tom Glavine
- Trevor Hoffman
- Frank Thomas
- Ken Griffey Jr.
- Mike Piazza
We’re looking at an impressive list. Pedro Martinez sports the best ERA+ in MLB history. Ivan Rodriguez has a case for being best catcher of all time. Ichiro Suzuki may hit 3,000 hits despite his odd career path. Greg Maddux is somehow underrated, despite being one of the best pitchers in baseball history. Albert Pujols may be the closest thing that this generation has to a Lou Gehrig. Mariano Rivera has somehow compiled a ridiculous 202 ERA+ in his career, 50 points higher than anyone else who has pitched over 1,000 innings.
The Borderlines
- Jorge Posada
- Jeff Bagwell
- Jim Thome
- John Smoltz
- Vlad Guerrero
- Todd Helton
- Lance Berkman
- Chipper Jones
- Omar Vizquel
Most of these guys will not make the Hall, but some will. Smoltz has an interesting relief/starting career and is well-liked by the press. Guerrero was more dominant than people realize. Guys like Helton, Berkman, and Thome will be a real test of Hall voters: can they distinguish between guys who were very valuable offensive players even if they didn’t hit 500+ home runs? We’ll see. I don’t give Hall voters much credit.
The Steroid Crew
- Barry Bonds
- Roger Clemens
- Rafael Palmeiro
- Alex Rodriguez
- Manny Ramirez
- Gary Sheffield
- Sammy Sosa
What happens to these guys? Every one has hall-worthy numbers. There is a good case that Barry Bonds was a better player, strictly by the numbers, than anyone since Babe Ruth. Clemens could have gone down as the best pitcher ever. Alex Rodriguez could hit 700 home runs. Hall of Fame voters will likely spite a few and let the others in. Steroids or not, Bonds, Arod, and Clemens are inner-circle cooperstowners, and Manny and Sosa absolutely should get in too.
This seems like a huge list to me. When I look at the past few years of Hall of Fame ballots, I see few players that I truly believe deserve entry. Guys like Goose Gossage, Jim Rice, and Bruce Sutter would be near the bottom of the “Borderline” list if I had included them. Are we seeing more Hall of Famers for some particular reason today? Or are we (or I) inflating the value of present-day players?
Related posts:
Thome has 564 HRs, so I’d put him in “The No-Doubters.” John(Quote)
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Rob A from BBD Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 11:55 am
There has been no time in my life where I’ve considered Thome anything beyond a one dimensional player and I’ve never considered him one of the elite ball players as a result. Maybe he gets in, no way he’s a no doubter. Certainly not a first ballot guy. Rob A from BBD(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
I think he gets in. He is clean as far as we know, and will likely finish with over 600 homers. He is one dimensional, but pretty great at that one dimension. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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EJ Fagan Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
I agree with you on substance, but I feel that Thome is going to get a big hit from voters who force sluggers into an unfairly high standard. He won’t be the first 500 home run hitter to not make the hall right away (that belongs to Mark) EJ Fagan(Quote)
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How about Larry Walker?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walkela01.shtml
Career OPS+ of 140 is not bad. Montifore(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Walker can thank Coors Field for that career. Chris H.(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Isn’t OPS+ adjusted for ballpark? That’s pretty high. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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Here is a breakdown I made of Hall of Fame likelyhood based on 4 criteria courtesy of baseball-reference.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml
I took the top 25 of each criteria and assigned each a point value, #’s 1 thru 25. IF ranked 1, 25 points, if ranked 2, 24 points etc. Here were the totals of all players not yet eligible for the HOF as of 2004.
Barry Bonds 99
Alex Rodriguez 97
Ken Griffey 83
Manny Ramirez 76
Frank Thomas 73
Albert Pujols 68
Jeff Bagwell 63
Sammy Sosa 62
Derek Jeter 54
Larry Walker 51
R. Palmeiro 50
Ichiro Suzuki 47
Todd Helton 47
Craig Biggio 43
Vladi Guerrero 43
Gary Sheffield 41
Chipper Jones 40
Jim Thome 34
Mike Piazza 34
Ivan Rodriguez 24
Juan Gonzalez 21
Carlos Delgado 15
Juan Pierre 15
Ryan Howard 14
Jason Giambi 12
David Ortiz 11
Jeff Kent 11
Bernie William 10
Miguel Tejada 10
N. Garciaparra 10
Bobby Abreu 8
Kenny Lofton 8
Jose Reyes 7
Jimmy Rollins 6
Luis Gonzalez 4
Lance Berkman 3
Derrek Lee 2
Miguel Cabrera 2
Matt Holliday 1
Moises Alou 1
Results: Overall EJ, your results were amazing close to the baseball reference criteria. 2 exceptions: 1. Larry Walker should have made the list. 2. Omar Vizquel is nowhere to be found. perhaps his defense puts him over the hump.
Pitchers coming soon. Montifore(Quote)
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Old Ranger Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Your top seven look good to me but, some others will get in because someone likes them or some such thing. Old Ranger(Quote)
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EJ Fagan Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
I put Vizquel on there for two reasons:
1. He has a ridiculously long career for a shortstop of productivity. He’s at 2700 hits, the 4th highest active total.
2. He has superb defensive credentials, including 11 gold gloves, which has to be a record for a shortstop.
3. I expect voters to have a little bit of anti-slugger rebellion in their blood. Even if Vizquel isn’t completely hall-worthy, he’ll at least get a good look by voters. EJ Fagan(Quote)
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Now for pitchers:
Roger Clemens 99
Greg Maddux 95
Randy Johnson 94
Pedro Martinez 86
Curt Schilling 78
Tom Glavine 77
John Smoltz 73
Mike Mussina 68
Kevin Brown 57
David Wells 55
Johan Santana 54
Roy Halladay 50
Andy Pettitte 36
Roy Oswalt 32
Mariano Rivera 29
C.C. Sabathia 25
Tim Hudson 24
Jamie Moyer 24
Tim Lincecum 17
Trevor Hoffman 17
John Franco 16
Jake Peavy 15
Jose Mesa 14
Billy Wagner 13
Brandon Webb 12
Cliff Lee 11
Bartolo Colon 11
Troy Percival 11
Kenny Rogers 10
Joe Nathan 10
Roberto Hernandez10
Livan Hernandez 9
Javier Vazquez 9
Adam Wainwright 8
Francisco Rodriguez 7
J. Verlander 6
Hideo Nomo 6
Brad Radke 6
Todd Jones 6
Aaron Harang 5
Mark Buehrle 5
Armando Benitez 3
Barry Zito 2
Jered Weaver 2
Scott Erickson 1
Al Leiter 1
Jon Lester 1
EJ, again is a amazingly accurate compared to baseball-reference. Obviously by his standards, There are not as many Hall of Fame eligible pitchers as hitters.
Still can’t believe that 3 of the 7 best pitchers were on the same team for so many years. Montifore(Quote)
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Old Ranger Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Again, top seven plus Mo. Time will tell on the others. Old Ranger(Quote)
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EJ Fagan Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
I forgot to put Curt Schilling on there. I think that Schilling is pretty underrated career-wise. His win total isn’t particularly high, so people forget how dominant he was for a decade. 300 strikeout pitchers don’t exactly grow on trees. EJ Fagan(Quote)
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Nice list, however my only comment is that Chipper Jones should be in the no-doubters (although I do agree he could have some trouble) and Omar Vizquel shouldn’t even be mentioned. He had a nice career and was a very good defensive player, but he’s not in Ozzie’s (whom he’ll be compared to) class defensively. StandingO’Neill(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Chipper is definitely a no-doubter. He’ll get in there. Chris H.(Quote)
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I just realized that Roberto Alomar is not on the list, and I am not sure why? It might be a glich in the website’s software.
He definitely deserves consideration. Montifore(Quote)
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The other SteveS Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Try again, maybe it will spit something out. The other SteveS(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
That’s a great line. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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Montifore Reply:
September 15th, 2009 at 11:25 am
LOL!
http://campussqueeze.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/alomar-spit8.jpg Montifore(Quote)
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How does Ivan Rodriguez not end up on the steroid list? Didn’t he all but admit to using? Rob A from BBD(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
I dont think he so. He just totally shrunk. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Haha. I-Rod was definitely on the juice. Chris H.(Quote)
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The other Chris H Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Who really cares who was on steroids at this point… If you are putting a hall of fame list together you have to put Arod and Bonds in the guaranteed area because they will eventually get in and most likely it will come out that Albert Pujols at some point used as well as most people from this era of sports. The other Chris H(Quote)
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EJ Fagan Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
There isn’t a lot of hard evidence against I-Rod on steroids, and he has a real good public image. Sadly, a lot of these HOF votes are going to come down to steroid perception. EJ Fagan(Quote)
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The other Chris H Reply:
September 14th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
I doubt anyone even cares by the time Arod is eligible and as a result of that most of the steroid users will make it in with the exceptions of guys like Mark because even though he was a good HR hitter he wasn’t much more than that and even with steroids he only 500. By the time most of these sports writers are gone and the new guard holds the key they will all have a better mental grasp on the idea of voting for them because they will have watched them like these sports writers watched Hank Aaron, you can bet almost all of them will get in including Bonds, Arod, Ivan, Manny and even Clemens at some point. The other Chris H(Quote)
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If you ignore those on your list that are currently retired, and recognize roughly 2% of all players make the hall, then we should get roughly 24 HoF players out of this season (30 teams x 40 players). I count 12-15 surefire HoF on your list (depening on how the steroid issue breaks). This may seem low, but figure the “missing” dozen or so players are too young to be listed.
Now, it may be that over the last decade or so we’ll have a higher than average HoF rate. Its hard to say without doing more math than I am willing right now. So let’s assume your hunch is right, and we have crap load of HoF coming down the pipe. Why might this be?
1. Statistical fluke is always a safe, if unsatisfying, answer.
2. Steroids. You listed the known candidates, but we know there are others, almost certainly others on your HoF list.
3. Expansion. Baseball took a break from expansion in the 80s, then added four teams in the 90s. This diluted competition to the greatest degree since the early 60s, and could allow the best players to excell even more.
4.Health. Even without steroids, players are having longer, more productive careers. Jeter is talking about playing well into his 40s, long past the age at which Scooter stopped grabbing ground balls in favor of cannolis. With longer carees, many HoF benchmarks (3000 hits, 500HRs, etc) become “easier” to achieve. misterd(Quote)
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EJ Fagan Reply:
September 15th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
I’m pretty persuaded by your expansion argument. Diluted competition gave us a lot of our HOFers in the 30s-50s. Misuse of bullpens and weak middle relief spread out across 30 rosters has to help hitters considerably. EJ Fagan(Quote)
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EJ,
Can you clarify your thoughts on Larry Walker and Roberto Alomar? Montifore(Quote)
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EJ Fagan Reply:
September 15th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Larry Walker will be left on the outside due to Coors Field perceptions, and a relatively brief career.
Roberto Alomar ought be a sure Hall of Famer. I just didn’t really include him in the “recently retired” group – he’s been out for 5 years now.
(In terms of other eligible people, its a crime if Tim Raines does not get in) EJ Fagan(Quote)
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chipper jones and todd helton are two of the most underrated baseball players of today.if you look at their number their is no dougt that they will be in the hall. chipper’s carreer average is 308 and heltons is 314, they both have over 400 hundred home runs, when its all said and done they will both have over 1500 rbis and over 2500 hits (helron will probably get 3000). The only reason chipper won’t get 500 home runs or 3000 hits is because he missed over 3.5 seasons due too injuries. mason d(Quote)
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