This is from Golenbock’s Facebook page, which may explain all the horrific spelling errors. He does not actually have an MVP vote, but is representative of a large segment of the voting population. It is quite possibly the most perplexing ballot in the history of ballots. There is no unifying theory, and most importantly, no Derek Jeter:
My pick: Mark Tiexiera. After him, I had in order: Joe Mauer, Ichiro, Dustin Pedroia, Michel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, Kevin Youkelis, Aaron Hill, and Evan Longoria.
The quickest and easiest way to illustrate how ridiculous this ballot is is to use WAR, which encapsulates offense and defense. It is not perfect, but it is probably the best statistical measure to use to determine MVP.
The listed players have the following WAR’s, in this order:
5.1, 7.7, 4.8, 5.0, 5.2, 5.1, 5.0, 3.5, 6.8.
So his number 1 pick is statistically indistinguishable from players 4-7, player 9 should be 2nd, and player 2 should clearly be first. Furthermore, there are a number of top 10 WAR players not on this list of 9 (not sure why he did not list 10 guys), including Ben Zobrist, Derek Jeter, Chone Figgins, and Franklin Guttierez. Clearly, Golenbock was not using statistics to make his picks. Then what was he using? There are many such anomalies on this ballot:
If he wants to credit players from winning teams, as he clearly did with Teixeira, where is Jeter? He is 4th in WAR, ahead of Tex and behind Mauer, Zobrist, and Longoria, and clearly has a reputation as a leader and a winner. That Pedroia, Crawford, and Hill make the ballot while Jeter is left off is astounding.
What is Ichiro doing third? He is on a non-contender and his numbers are lesser than most of the players listed after him.
Miguel Cabrera, Derek Jeter, Kevin Youkilis, and Evan Longoria behind Pedroia? Has he even watched the Red Sox this season?
No Angels? Chone Figgins merits a spot based on the numbers, and guys like Bobby Abreu and Kendry Morales should be on any ballot put together without using sabermetric data.
Carl Crawford over Longoria and Zobrist? I get that Zobrist is a new face and that people may not put much stock in the positional adjustments that make him #2 in WAR, but Longoria has clearly been more valuable than Crawford.
Aaron Hill has had a nice year, but he just does not belong.
My ballot today (subject to change): I typically try to use most of the sabermetric statistics while allowing a bit of context (such as whether the team is a playoff team) to filter in.
Joe Mauer
Derek Jeter
Zach Greinke
Miguel Cabrera
Evan Longoria
Chone Figgins
Kevin Youkilis
Mark Teixeira
Felix Hernandez
Ben Zobrist
Related posts:
My top 5 for MOST VALUABLE player is as follows…
Alex Rodriguez
Joe Mauer
Derek Jeter
Chone Figgins
Miguel Cabrera
Kevin Youkilis
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
September 22nd, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Except for A-Rod, I think that is a perfectly reasonable ballot. Alex has been very good but not spectacular enough to make up for his missed month.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
September 22nd, 2009 at 6:12 pm
Just to add to this, I think it is reasonable to have Alex on the ballot, just not first. I could see him in the top 10, but below Jeter and Tex.
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The other Chris H Reply:
September 22nd, 2009 at 7:14 pm
That is why I bolded Valuable because I don’t think the raw numbers are the most important part of the award…. It isn’t the most stats collected trophy it’s the MVP and clearly the turn around this year for The Yankees and Tex and even Jeter is Arod. Jeter was hitting .290 the day Arod came back and Tex was hitting .180 his presence helped everyone from Tex to CC get more comfortable and really his HR in his first at bat on the first pitch really made you feel good things were coming from this team.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
September 22nd, 2009 at 7:20 pm
I disagree. I think value is tied up in production. For example, the team really took off when Hughes moved to the bullpen. Does that mean Hughes is the MVP? Certainly not. A-Rod has been very good, but in a sport that requires players to stand up there by themselves and perform more than any other sport, I have a hard time giving A-Rdo a huge amount of credit for what his teammates do.
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The other Chris H Reply:
September 22nd, 2009 at 7:30 pm
How when protection is so important in this sport? Did you forget the first month of the season when Tex only saw breaking balls and was either chasing to get hits or walking to first? Once Arod comes back you have to pitch to him because if you walk him Arod is up with runners on so Tex starting seeing fastballs more often it all falls in line like dominoes to me. You take out Albert Pujols and Ludwick and DeRosa aren’t the same players, look at ho much easier it is to pitch to Ortiz when you don’t have the mental block of Manny some where. Obviously both are important but I think with hs numbers and with his value to the team he is the real MVP this year to me.
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Agreed. That’s an awful ballot.
My ballot would be very similar to yours, Mo.
Joe Mauer
Derek Jeter
Zack Greinke
Mark Teixeira
Miguel Cabrera
Evan Longoria
Kevin Youkilis
Kendry Morales
Ben Zobrist
Dustin Pedroia
I feel like the top 4 guys are really locked in and the rest can be shuffled around a bit.
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I still think Tex is being a bit overrated here, and Grienke – sorry, until they designate a position player equivilent to the Cy Young, the pitchers have their award.
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The other Chris H Reply:
September 22nd, 2009 at 7:36 pm
I think a pitcher can win the MVP but not one who’s team is terrible, he can have the CY but the team has to do something before he is an MVP candidate. Yeah I don’t think Tex is the most valuable player on the Yankees and in fact he is at best 4th behind Mariano, Arod and Jeter but he has some of the best power numbers in the league (leading in RBI and could lead in HRs if he hits 40) and all the voters seem to care about are numbers so he will get votes.
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I really don’t see Pedroia even being on the ballet, neither in numbers or value because in numbers Youk is there best player and there most valuable player for the second half at least has been V-Mart.
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