Coming in to the All-Star break, the Yankees rotation for the playoffs seemed pretty obvious. CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett would start games 1 and 2 respectively, while Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte would fight it out for the nod in Game 3. However, the last 40 or so games have muddied this picture considerably, at least in regard to Burnett and Pettitte (Sabathia will certainly pitch Game 1, while Joba will get Game 4).
Andy Pettitte went 4-0 in August over 6 starts, with a 2.50 ERA, while AJ was 0-4 with a 6.03 over the same span. For the season, their numbers are now startlingly similar, with Pettitte having the slightly better season.
Pettitte: 167.1 IP, 12-6, 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 2.28 SO/BB
Burnett: 164.2 IP, 10-8, 4.10 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.91 SO/BB
At this point Andy Pettitte deserves a Game 2 start. However, plenty can change between here and October, as evidenced by Burnett’s one month descent from challenging Sabathia for top billing to a possible drop to Game 3 in the postseason. Furthermore, there is one mitigating factor that suggests that Burnett should precede Pettitte.
Burnett Home: 3.47 ERA
Burnett Road: 4.78 ERA
Pettitte Home: 4.65 ERA
Pettitte Road: 3.33 ERA
Burnett has been significantly better than Andy at Yankee Stadium, while Pettitte holds the edge on the road. Considering that the Yankees will likely have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Game 2 starter will make 2 home starts per series while the Game 3 starter will be forced to pitch on the road one time. The splits noted above suggest that Burnett should be the Game 2 starter, despite his slightly inferior numbers.
Who would you pitch in a Game 2 start?
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If Andy keeps pitching the way he has, I’d say you go with him regardless of the home-away splits. It’s funny because me and my dad were having this discussion last night. It’s a good problem to have, though. Chris H.(Quote)
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It doesn’t really matter all that much. We might as well air on the side of caution for home/road splits.
Remember also: Joba may not pitch in the division series. If we are in 1st place, we can choose to select the extra off day division series. This would mean that CC would pitch 1 and 4 instead of 1 and 5, which means that whomever pitches Game 2 will pitch Game 3. EJ Fagan(Quote)
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Based on the stats you provided…I would start these pitchers:
Game 1 (home): CC
Game 2 (home): AJ
Game 3 (away): Andy Steve B.(Quote)
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Have to go with Andy at this point, both for his current track record and his playoff history. But AJ could have a September that changes my mind. misterd(Quote)
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The other Chris H Reply:
September 2nd, 2009 at 2:29 am
Here is the interesting part… say AJ has a terrible September and on his last two starts Joba pitches extremely well and does well in his short starts while Pettitte is still dealing… If you adhere to going with the “hot pitcher” then AJ would be the 4th starter in that equation and I am not saying AJ would pitch game 4 and Joba would pitch game 5 but it could open the window to Joba getting a start in the first round of the playoffs based on AJ performance because you just have them each pitch a game and let CC pitch game 5 if it went that far. The other Chris H(Quote)
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