Jon Heyman, along with an unnamed agent and general manager, offered a few contract predictions regarding the top 24 free agents for 2010. In the following mini-series, I’ve highlighted some of the more interesting names, including players that the Yankees will likely be interested in, and Yankees that will be granted free agency at the season’s end. The series begins with the top free agents available for 2010: 1) Matt Holiday, 2) Jason Bay, and 3) John Lackey.
Here are the contract predictions, via Jon Heyman, scout, and GM, juxtaposed with my own analysis.
1. Matt Holliday, Cardinals OF. St. Louis is going to try to keep Holliday, one of four big summer pickups who helped the Cardinals run away with the NL Central. The Cardinals are going to hope that he loves being in their baseball-crazed city to the point where he would forego bigger dollars elsewhere (Boston and both New York teams are likely interested). With franchise man Albert Pujols‘s contract up in two years and Cy Young candidate Chris Carpenter in a year, the Cardinals don’t figure to be the high bidder. The agent said he believes that Holliday and Bay should each get $2 to $3 million a year less than Teixeira. But the GM said, “Teixeira’s a plus defender, a switch-hitter and slightly younger” than Holliday.
Agent: $147 million, 7 years.
GM: $80 million, 5 years.
Me: $120 million, 7 years.
Holliday is the crown jewel of the upcoming free agent class. Although he had a rough start to his season in the AL, he rebounded while with the A’s and ultimately hit .286/.378/.454 over 93 games. With the Cardinals, he’s sprinting towards the finish-line, as he has hit .363/.415/.659 since his NL return (he has 12 homers with them, too, 1 more then he had with the A’s while playing nearly 50 more games with Oakland). Holliday can hit, he can field, and he has surprising speed (14 SB on the year).
The Yankees will certainly look at him as a left field option in 2010, although with Hal Steinbrenner at the ship’s helm, I wonder if they would be willing to commit the years or dollars predicted by Heyman or the agent. I could see them paying $17 per over 6 years, but 7 might be a deal breaker. Conversely, I think the GM is undervaluing Holliday. If he were available at that price ($16 per over 5), then the Yankees would most definitely ink him to a deal.
2. Jason Bay, Red Sox OF. The Red Sox tried earlier, and Bay has said he loves playing in Boston, a stark change from Pittsburgh.
Agent: $147 million, 7 years.
GM: $60 million, 4 years.
Me: $80 million, 5 years.
I think Jason Bay is being tremendously overrated by the agent. While his offense is a plus, he’ll be 31 at the end of this season, whereas Matt Holliday will be 29 (no one is going to give him 7 years). I think the GM and Heyman have better predictions given Bay’s streaky offensive year. Bay has also been awful, defensively—a trend which began in 2007, after some leg problems—which significantly undermines his offensive value. I think the Yankees may look at him as a secondary option if they do decide to chase Matt Holliday, however, I don’t think they’ll pay top dollar for his poor defense. Heyman probably has the best prediction at $16 million per (he’ll be overpaid if he doesn’t figure out his fielding problems).
3. John Lackey, Angels pitcher. The Angels tried last winter at close to $60 million over four years, but Lackey said he signed a team-friendly deal last time and won’t do it again.
Agent: $75 million, 5 years.
GM: $60 million, 4 years.
Me: $85 million, 5 years.
Holliday, Bay and Lackey will be the biggest names available and, with the Yankees, they’re always in on the bigger names, so I had to discuss Lackey. Now, I don’t see the Yankees going after him—not after they gave a lot of money to CC Sabathia (deserving) and A.J. Burnett (undeserving). Still, Lackey is one of the better pitchers in baseball—he’s totally underrated—and could always become a legitimate option if Andy Pettitte chooses to retire (unlikely) or if the Yankees plan on starting the season with Joba or Hughes in the minors, so that they may continue to build up their innings, etc. (also unlikely). Also, if the Yankees choose to bring back Johnny Damon for left field and opt for the rotating DH idea, they could have money to burn on pitching.
Lackey should command the same $82.5 million that the Yankees gave to Burnett, which is a lot of money, obviously. Frankly, Lackey is a better pitcher than A.J. is, too, and will likely get a few more dollars because of it (Heyman’s $85 million prediction sounds about right). I do think that he’ll wind up on the Red Sox, though, which means you’ll inevitably read a number of reports about Yankee interest over the winter to drive up his price (reports concocted by Lackey’s agent and the Yankees).
These three players—Holliday, Bay and Lackey—stand as the cream of the 2010 free agent crop. You’ll probably hear that the Yankees are interested in all three during the course of the offseason, although one, in particular, seems like a really good fit (i.e., Matt Holliday) given the team’s needs and goals. Tomorrow, I’ll have more on some of the other free agents discussed in Heyman’s piece that could potentially play a part in the Yankees’ 2010 plans. So, stay tuned…