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Law of Averages--and Pies--Strikes Again

Posted by Rebecca Glass at 10:37 pm No Responses »
Sep 082009

Coming into today’s game Nick Swisher had hit 24 home runs–and hit all but three of them on the road.

Coming into today’s game, Phil Hughes had let to blow a lead in relief.

Coming into today’s game, Chad Gaudin had yet to exceed five innings pitched.

Metaphysical laws of averages don’t tend to like it when things are so one-sided.

As you have probably devised from the lead, Nick Swisher hit two home runs, Phil Hughes blew a 2-1 lead in the eighth inning, and Chad Gaudin pitched an utter gem for six innings.

Derek Jeter was again held hitless, and it’s beginning to look like he’s pressing–not for sake of a record, but because Jeter is now in his longest 0-fer for the season.

Still, it’s hard to feel too down when one’s team has been playing .750 baseball since the All Star break.

Yes, you read that right.

It was especially gratifying to see Swisher hit two home runs and earn a place in the Pie Club (with Cabrera, Canó, Rodriguez, Damon, Matsui, Posada and Luis Castillo) because of how much Swisher has meant to the team, especially on the road.

Most of the attention has been paid to CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Mark Teixeira as the big off-season acquisitions, but Nick Swisher has had plenty of value on his own. Just think about this: had Swisher not been on the team and Xavier Nady still been lost for the year, the Yankee outfield would have been Johnny Damon, Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera every single day, unless Brian Cashman made a panic move.

Swisher wasn’t the only Yankee to have a good day; for six innings, Chad Gaudin pitched an absolute gem. Gaudin had some help from brilliant defense behind him, and for a while it looked as though the Yankees’ 2-0 lead would be all they needed.

Alas, Gaudin simply ran out of gas in the seventh inning–which shouldn’t be all that surprising for a guy that’s been used in both the bullpen and the rotation in one season.

Three relievers–Damaso Marte, Brian Burney and Phil Coke–combined to keep Tampa from doing any more damage than one run in the seventh inning, but Phil Hughes surrendered a solo home run to Jason Bartlett in the eighth.

It was the first time all season Hughes had blown a lead in relief.

No matter, Hughes bounced back, inducing a double play to end the inning and keep the game tied as it headed to the bottom of the eighth.

That the Yankees now have thirteen walk-off wins and are averaging about a walk-off a homestand is certainly a lot of fun, but what might be more important here is that the 2009 Yankees are the fastest Yankees team since 1998 to get to 90 wins.

If that doesn’t say something, I don’t know what will.

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Robertson to see Dr. Andrews

Posted by Chris H. at 6:43 pm 9 Responses »
Sep 082009

Due to what has been characterized as “elbow tightness,” according to Anthony DiComo, David Robertson has been shut down indefinitely. He is also scheduled to see Dr. James Andrews after undergoing an MRI yesterday. This is a tough break for the team as Robertson has been an effective piece of the bullpen. Hopefully we’ll see him again this season.

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Yanks celebrating too much?

Posted by Chris H. at 4:05 pm 20 Responses »
Sep 082009

After the Brewers’ recent choreographed HR celebration which featured Prince Fielder as a bowling ball (that’s not surprising) and his fellow teammates as bowling pins, people are once again debating celebratory antics in baseball. In fact, Steve over at WW decided to bring the Yankees into the fold with the following:

The Yankees, this season, with all their walk-off wins, have been bordering on such a thing – with the home plate helmet toss and catch, Burnett’s cream pie facials, etc.

While I think the Brewers’ celebration was funny as a one time deal, I don’t think the Yankees have done anything “bordering” the Fielder moment, which was, to many, an unnecessary display of showmanship. The helmet toss and catch has been going on for a while now—I believe David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez made it famous—and Burnett’s cream pie facials occur well after the game is over. What we’ve seen from the Yankees isn’t comparable to what we witnessed in Milwaukee, is it?

I don’t think so, but maybe you disagree.

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Understanding Melky's resurgence

Posted by Chris H. at 2:00 pm 7 Responses »
Sep 082009

Over the last two weeks, Melky Cabrera has hit .377. He has 20 hits, 10 RBI, and 4 SB during that time. He’s having the best year of his career with a line of .281/.340/.430 and a wOBA of .337. When one considers his ’08 season, it’s safe to say that Melky has rebounded. However, for discussion’s sake, how does one explain Melky’s resurgent year?

Well, in order to “get” Melky’s 2009, we must first look to his 2008 season. Last year, when Melky hit a disappointing .249, one of his biggest problems was that he had deserted what had worked for him in previous seasons. In 2006-7, Melky was keeping the ball on the ground. His ground ball to fly ball ratio in ’06 was 1.48. He didn’t have much power then so keeping the ball out of the air and on the ground worked for him. In 2007, he continued that trend and had a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.75. He had actually cut down on his fly ball rate and had increased his ground ball rate. It worked in ’07 as Melky hit .273 and put together a solid campaign.

However, in 2008, things began to unravel. Last season, his ground ball to fly ball ratio was 1.33—the lowest it had ever been as a full-time player. Melky was trying to lift more balls and ended up hurting himself in the process (for instance, his infield fly ball percentage skyrocketed to 15.3% after being a mere 11.6% in 2007). That year, only Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi—the two primary power hitters—had higher fly ball percentages (in 200 PA’s or more). Given his skill set, Melky should have been emulating Derek Jeter or Robinson Cano rather than A-Rod and Giambi.

In 2009, Melky has, essentially, corrected the problem. This year, his ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.65. His fly ball percentage is 30.2%—down nearly 5% since 2008, while his ground ball rate is up. In fact, his 49.9% rate leaves him second only to Derek Jeter. He has also added some power to his repertoire, too, as 10.7% of his fly balls have ended up being home runs. In previous seasons, that rate had not surpassed 6.5%. Therefore, while he is keeping the ball on the ground—for the most part—his fly balls are more valuable in 2009 (one could tie that to Yankee Stadium although his splits have evened out over the year).

While I’ve provided a rather long-winded analysis of Melky’s bounceback season, the bottom line is fairly simple. If Melky can keep the ball on the ground while limiting his fly ball rate, then he’ll continue to be a useful big league hitter. That’s what we’ve seen in 2009 and that is what has worked for him in the past. When he tries to deviate from that formula, things become problematic for him. This, of course, can change if he matures as a hitter and develops some more power, but, until then, he should stick with what works.

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Neyer: Flip Joba and Hughes

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 12:04 pm 4 Responses »
Sep 082009

From Rob Neyer:

Which is where Hughes comes in. Chamberlain is the Yankees’ No. 4 starter. Sergio Mitre is the Yankees’ No. 5 starter. Which means the Yankees, as things stand now, have only three reliable starters. And again, you need four of them when the leaves are turning in New England.

I know, I know … Phil Hughes has been so good in the bullpen: 1.11 ERA with an overpowering strikeout-to-walk ratio. Make him a starter again and he’s not going to post numbers anything like those. But to help the Yankees, he doesn’t have to be anywhere near that good; he just has to be measurably better than Chamberlain and Mitre. Particularly if — and I know this is highly speculative — Chamberlain regains his dominant stuff upon returning to a relief role.

Perhaps I’m overreacting to Chamberlain’s recent struggles, and the Yankees are good enough to win the World Series even without a decent fourth starter. But the other day somebody asked me what could keep the Yankees from winning. I didn’t have a good answer, because this is essentially a team without a weakness.

Except one. And with a little creativity, they could probably make it zero.

I hate to pick on Rob, but there are a number of reasons why this is a terrible idea. Firstly, I am no injury expert, but yanking both guys in and out of roles can only be a negative in terms of their health. Furthermore, I would hate to mess with Hughes when he is pitching so well, and there is no guarantee that either pitcher takes to the new role. You may end up with neither a 4th starter nor an 8th inning guy. Even if it does work out, the marginal upgrade from Joba to Hughes in the rotation is unlikely to be worth the risk. It seems likely that the Yankees will need a 4th starter twice in all of the postseason, which means that a good 8th inning guy may actually be about as valuable as another starter. This is just a bad idea that would provide marginal benefits while risking significant costs.

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Revisiting the Nady-Marte deal

Posted by Steve S. at 8:27 am 1 Response »
Sep 082009

Remember the cries of outrage when the Yankees traded for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte for a package of prospects last year? We heard the usual reactions of how ‘it’s bad for Baseball’ and ‘the rich get richer’ from many of the usual suspects. Tyler Kepner of the New York Times has a new piece up in his BATS Blog looking at that deal from the perspective of a year later. He writes:

PITTSBURGH – Ross Ohlendorf has had a breakthrough season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, going 11-9 with a 3.97 E.R.A. for a last-place team.

It was a move that seemed to help the Yankees at the time, boosting their chances in the pennant race. But the Pirates are enjoying the long-term benefits now. Karstens is out with a back injury after going 3-4 with a 5.03 earned run average, but McCutchen made his major league debut in Cincinnati last Monday, allowing three runs on five hits in six innings.

He goes on to say McCutchen figures to be in the mix for Pittsburgh’s rotation next year while for Jose Tabata the trade has served as a wake-up call. According to McCutchen, Tabata is playing with a renewed focus and hustle he often didn’t display in his time with the Yankees. He’s hitting .296 with five homers and a .360 on-base percentage this season for the Pirates AA and AAA affiliates. At 21 years old, he’s still a baby and still has years to reach his full potential, but by having reached AAA at that young age, a fast start for Tabata in 2010 could very well land him on the big league club early next year. Players who make their major league debuts that young are often elite talents, so his MLB potential remains vast. Personally, I thought the Yanks had rushed him through the system and it showed in the results he had in 2008 in Trenton. After being traded, the Pirates sent him all the way down to rookie ball initially (most likely for roster reasons) where he seemed to regain his swing and he had an outstanding final month of the season for their AA Altoona Curve team.

From the Yankee perspective, the trade has been a bust. It was a win-now move, and they missed the playoffs last year. They bought high on Nady, in the midst of his best season batting .330/.383/.535. (.919 OPS) with the Pirates last year. His production last year dropped off with the Yankees, putting up a line of .268/.320/.474 (.794 OPS) after being traded. In 2009, he hurt his elbow and required Tommy John surgery (his 2nd) and has been out since April 14th.

The Damaso Marte part of the deal has also yielded disappointing results from the Yankee end. Thought at the time to have been the Yanks long-needed answer to the Lefty reliever AND primary set up man problem, Marte followed Nady’s lead and performed poorly with the team. With the Pittsburgh Pirates last year he was 4-0  with a 3.47 ERA, in 46.2 innings he allowed 38 Hits and 16 Walks while striking out 47 (1.157 WHIP/ ERA+119 ). Since coming over to the Yankees,  in 2 seasons he has gone 2-4 with a 6.43 ERA. Pitching just 28 innings in over a calendar year, he has allowed 20 Runs 14 Walks and 4 HRs (1.321 WHIP/ ERA+69 ). He also missed much of 2009 with a shoulder injury. So again the Yanks bought high on an NL player and have yet to see him produce similar results in pinstripes.

The rich got richer? Bad for Baseball? I’m sure the same folks who were saying that last year will be issuing their retractions any day now.

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