Here’s Ben over at RAB on Joba’s latest start:
For Joba, the problem seemed to be one of velocity. While he was throwing more strikes, he averaged below 92 with his fastball and peaked at around 94.4. His changeup, slider and curve were all working nicely, but I still wonder, as I have many times this season, where Joba’s 97 mph fastball went. He threw it last year regularly as a starter but only occasionally this year.
Now here are some interesting numbers on Joba’s fastball via FanGraphs:
From 2007-2008, Joba famously started as a reliever and he then transitioned into the rotation in ‘08. Therefore, the velocity on his fastball during those years is somewhat inflated. This season, Joba is a full-time starter and we’ve seen a noticeable drop in velocity. That is to be expected, of course. However, as Ben notes, Joba’s dominant heat—the velocity he brought to the table last year as a starter—has all but vanished. Obviously, it’s okay to conserve one’s energy and save the gas so that you can go deep into ballgames, but Joba’s fastball is an entirely different animal this season (there’s no premium gas). In fact, due to newly his tamed fastball, Joba has seriously suffered as a starter in 2009.
According to FanGraphs’ pitch value data, Joba’s fastball is worth 15 runs below average. That’s third worst in the AL behind Detroit’s own, Armando Galarraga and our old friend, Carl Pavano. In 2008, when Joba’s fastball still popped as a starter, the pitch was 8.6 runs above average. There’s something wrong here although I wonder if it’s solely a velocity issue—perhaps movement is involved, as well—although that appears to be the most explicit explanation. Joba’s fastball has gone from a serious weapon to a significant burden and is now hurting him rather than helping him. When compared to previous years, in 2009, hitters are making contact with Joba’s pitches at a higher rate—80.4% compared to 73.5% in ‘08—and this too, it seems, can be attributed to his weakened fastball. This is especially the case when he challenges someone outside of the zone (55.5% contact rate compared to 46.8% a year ago). He’s just more hittable than he has ever been in his short career. If his fastball is the issue, it doesn’t help that he throws the pitch more than anyone on the Yankees’ staff outside of A.J. Burnett.
However, maybe it’s not all the fastball’s fault. While I don’t know what to make of his velocity, maybe he could help his fastball out by improving his overall pitch selection. I think a lot of hitters choose not to swing at Joba’s slider—his second most used pitch—due to his command. He doesn’t really throw it much for strikes (that’s my subjective opinion). Further, he doesn’t throw his curveball much—only about 9% of the time—despite it being a good pitch. Therefore, hitters can simply wait out the fastball because they know it’s coming. This explains the higher contact rates. When the heat isn’t as good as it was in 2008, they hit it harder and more frequently. Joba would probably benefit from using the curve more often so as to offset a batter’s expectations. He’s essentially pitching with his bullpen repertoire (fastball, slider) and it’s hurting his fastball’s effectiveness. Perhaps that’s the main problem—predictable pitch selection—rather than the fastball itself (though the drop in fastball velocity is significant because of the predictability).
Or maybe the Yankees should just have Jose Molina catch all of Joba’s starts instead of Jorge Posada. I’m sure that would help (I’m kidding!).
Related posts:
Im wondering if either
A) His shoulder hasnt completely been strengthened to what it was before his injury last year
or
B) He has it in his head that it isnt completely strengthened and is afraid to “let loose” 100%
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The other Chris H Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 5:20 pm
I think it’s in his head that everyone on the Yankees is doing whatever takes to make sure he doesn’t get injured and I think they have talked so much about he is scared to get re inured and blow the opportunity to be a great starter and let the team down so he would rather not pop the mit. This is the problem I have had with Chamberlain all year, I thought earlier in the year he was fixing to lest loose when he had the game he hit 98 a few times and was mostly in the 94-96 area but alas he did not. I am not even sure at this point how you snap him out of it and make him go balls out if you have told him all year “you are a fragile baby and baseball will hurt you” I am not saying they have been babying him but the way it’s talked about you would think his arm is glass.
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I do remember reading an article (scouting report) on Joba of his starts in the minor leagues. They highlighted that his fastball remained as high as 97 and 98 into the later innings of starts prior to coming up as a reliever for the Yankees. So I have to think something is not the same physically since last years injury. Is there anyway to check it out.
It is not that he is trying to throw 2 seamers is it?
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 4:00 pm
It seems none of the easily available pitch f/x databases differentiate between types of FB, so I could not tell you, but I was wondering the same thing.
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Chris H. Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 5:14 pm
I remember hearing something similar. But, watching the games, its clear that his fastball, in general, isn’t what it once was.
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The other Chris H Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Joba does have a 2-seamer and he does use it occasionally but his bread and butter pitch was the 4-seamer and all through college and the minors he barely used it, he threw the 2 maybe at a rate of 4-1 four heaters to everyone 2-seamer. No one expected Joba to consistently throw 100 as a starter but if you watched him start a game before this year you expected what he always was a guy who threw a CC Sabathia type velocity 94 or 95 consistently with the occasional 93 and hitting 97 and 98 on the regular (at least once per game) and he has showed signs of it this year but…. the real Joba Chmaberlain needs to stand up…
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I think Joba isn’t in the best of shape physically. I think he needs commit to get in better shape. We’ve also seen young guys before lose and then regain velocity. Verlander comes to mind.
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The other Chris H Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 5:54 pm
Joba is in fine shape, in fact he lost weight to show up at spring training this year, that may have been a concern in the past but he seems like he is in good shape… Skinny doesn’t equal good shape, look at CC Sabathia, maybe he should get in shape because at 300 pounds it’s much more likely he is a fat load than in shape.
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The other Chris H Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 6:05 pm
In 2008 Justin Verlander had an average fastball of 93.45 MPH and so far this year he is averaging 95.39 which is about the differential between Joba’s 08 to 09 fastball just in reverse. Does this mean he will gain his fastball back? I don’t know for sure as none of us do but it does give me some hope that the numbers are close and Verlander is having a year like he is having. I also find it funny that he is averaging 95 and all you ever see is him cranking the fastball in at 99 or 100 on the gun, I don’t watch a huge number of Verlander starts but I thought his average might be a little higher than it is.
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The other Chris H Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Apparently through Verlander’s first 3 starts last year he was averaging 91.9 MPH
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Girardi has stated a few times that Joba is throwing more 2-seamers this year, so the average velocity will be down. Also, 2008 was split between Relief outings in the beginning of the year and Starting around late May, so the numbers will be skewed.
I’m really not concerned.
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The other Chris H Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 6:23 pm
Even if he is throwing more 2 seamers I have watched every start he has ever had in the bigs and a lot in the minors and he is throwing 91 MPH, he would have to be throwing nothing but 2 seamers and that would be stupid because he is a power pitcher. In 2008 the numbers could be “skewed” but again it goes beyond the numbers I watched those games, and I watched him hit 96 and 97 and I watched him average a much faster fastball than he has ever had this year. He started out a good majority of all his games this year throwing 89 in the first inning on his 4 seamer and you aren’t concerned? You should be pal, the whole organization should be concerned, you have an ace pitcher throwing some Andy Pettitte heat.
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Chris H. Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 7:56 pm
Yea, that’s the thing. Even if Joba has a two-seamer and is throwing it, why is he throwing it as much as he is because from what we’ve seen, he’s throwing a lot of 91 mph fastballs (unless that’s actually his four-seamer). I really think he’s just throwing bad four-seamers. The other Chris H. is spot on here.
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The other Chris H Reply:
September 1st, 2009 at 3:29 am
I have to agree because it’s 89-92 but very little movement, so what good is it to lose velocity and not pick up movement? He looks like he is in his own head, he seems to be going through normal control/mechanical problems for young pitchers but he is also in head about not getting injured and letting him self or the Yankees down or simply because he doesn’t want to feel pain and because of the he is not able to focus on mechanics because every pitch has his arm in the back of his head.
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I think he has the 95+ fastball but, for some reason can’t (or won’t) throw as he can.
Is the problem mental or physical…I don’t know but, it looks more like mental to me. Been there, done that…I think we all have!
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Chris H. Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 7:54 pm
I also think it’s a mental issue. He does throw 96-97 mph fastballs but they’re usually towards the ends of his starts. At the beginning, the fastball is generally in the 91-92 mph range. It’s pretty bizarre.
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The other Chris H Reply:
September 1st, 2009 at 3:30 am
When he has a really good start and is quick and rolling through starts and gets that Joba swagger everyone loves it looks like he relaxes and just starts cranking the fastball in because he has a mental edge built up, but when he struggles early the velocity and confidence just doesn’t get there.
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