Here are two interesting numbers for you:
91.9 and 91.4.
91.9 mph is the average velocity of Mariano Rivera’s fastball and 91.4 mph is the average velocity of Mariano’s cutter. These numbers are for this season and are noteworthy as they both signal a significant downturn in Rivera’s overall pitch velocity. In the past, Mo’s fastball has been in the 93 mph range (his career velocity is 93.3 mph) while his cutter has been in the 92-93 range (the pitch has a career velocity of 92.7 mph). Even in 2008, Mo’s fastball typically sizzled at 93.1 mph and his cutter was equally imposing at 92.8 mph (on average). The velocity was there just a year ago, however, a year later we’ve seen a noticeable loss of power on his two primary (and only) pitches.
Mariano and co. seem to have noticed this, too, as Mo is throwing fewer fastballs than ever before. Instead, he’s choosing to throw his cutter more frequently as it is a pitch with enough movement to shoulder the loss in velocity. This season, Mo has only thrown straight fastballs 8.2% of the time, while he has thrown the cutter 91.8% of the time. In the past, fastball usage was a lot higher for Rivera as the percentages between it and his cutter were fairly close. That changed in 2007, though, with Rivera using the cutter more often by a significant margin (73.2% versus 26.7%). Since ‘07, he has relied mainly on the cutter and in ‘08, when his velocity dropped a bit, Mo used the cutter even more than he had in 2007. Now that his velocity has dipped even further—which may be the result of a combination of things, including age, shoulder soreness and offseason surgery—the fastball has essentially fallen to the wayside and Mo seems to be fine with that as long as his cutter is working.
To further support this theory, one can also look at pitch type values at Fangraphs for more data. You can read about the data here, but as David Appelman notes, the main crux of the data is to “see in runs the actual effectiveness of each pitch.” In 2009, Mariano Rivera’s fastball is valued at -1.4, meaning that, when compared to the league-average fastball, Mo’s fastball is 1.4 runs below average. This is the lowest rating for his fastball on record and is his only negative value, an issue that seems to coincide with the loss in velocity. For comparison purposes, Mo’s cutter is 15.5 runs above average, which is obviously why he uses it as often as he does (the movement and, of course, command allow it to be as effective as it has been). These numbers may seem randomly generated to some, but the wFB value appears to be in agreement with what we’ve seen this season in relation to Rivera’s “fading” fastball.
It will be interesting to see how Rivera’s fastball and cutter look in 2010. It may jump back up to the 93 mph range with a full winter to rest up, however, it may also continue to decrease as he ages. He has still been very effective—one of the best pitchers in baseball—yet his 1.04 HR/9 rate may be foretelling (it’s the highest HR/9 he has had since 1995). If his velocity falls even more next season, it’ll be interesting to see how he performs and whether or not he is brought back for 2011 and beyond.
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I think he will sit with the velocity he has now for one or two more years and after that I think he will take another dip in speed, but with his cutter the speed goes down and the cut becomes more apparent so it’s not killing him but I doubt he can play more than another 2 years, and that being said I don’t think he wants to. It’s obvious he isn’t what he was but he is still really effective, the day he can’t get 30 saves with out blowing big leads he retires the man has to much pride and respect for himself and the team to trot out with no arm and no chance of getting guys out. Like Jeter when it’s time he will go willingly and acceptingly until his hall speech.
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Chris H. Reply:
August 24th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Mo will bow out when the time is right. It’s amazing to think that he could be gone in 2 years.
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The other Chris H Reply:
August 24th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
It really doesn’t seem real, this team is going to feel weird with no Jeter, Mo and Posada in 5 years time.. by that time Cano will be one of the veterans from this young group to take over the leadership roles.
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So does anyone have any new information on Aroldis Chapman the Cuban defector? Seems like the Yankees may be in on this bidding war but I would like to know more about his slider and if he has developed any of his other off speed pitches into anything worth throwing, because I don’t want to way over pay for a guy who eventually ends up as nothing more than a closer with a 100 MPH fastball, that’s not a bad thing to have but it’s not worth paying the money he will command, especially for a guy who will need minor league experience.
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That’s weird. On the broadcasts, they’ve been saying that he’s throwing more 4-seamers this year to give hitters a different look, rather than throwing only cutters. This is the exact opposite of what pitchstats say.
If you remember early in his career, he threw mainly 4-seamers and that rising fastball was his out pitch. For the last 10+ years, though, it’s been pretty much all about the cutter. When he was starting in the minors, he apparently had a good change, too, so I don’t think it’s impossible for him to reinvent himself if he needs to. The guy is just a freak of nature, athletically, so I wouldn’t put anything past him. He’s got a sub 2 ERA, so it’s not like there’s anything to be alarmed about right now, though.
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Chris H. Reply:
August 24th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Great point regarding the fastball, Tom. Mo was still using that 4-seamer last year, albeit to a limited degree, to elevate the hitter’s eye level. Now, with his fastball around 91-92 mph, it can get hit harder as batters have finally caught up to it (thus explaining the homers). I agree about how he has pitched, too. That’s probably why the 4-seamer is no more. And, for this season, I agree—he’ll be fine. The guy is still effective and will remain that way because of his ability to locate the cutter (plus the movement doesn’t make it any easier for hitters). In a year or two, though, I wonder…
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The other Chris H Reply:
August 24th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Lets not forget his mechanics are impeccable and no pitcher in baseball knows his own mechanics and repeats it any better than Mo.
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Tom Gaffney Reply:
August 24th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Maybe he was throwing the 4-seamer earlier in the year. That would be why the broadcasters got fixated on it – sometimes they’ll see something or hear something early in the year and repeat the comment throughout, even though it’s no longer relevant.
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The other Chris H Reply:
August 24th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Yeah and last year he had really gone to the 4 seamer a lot more than this year and it sort of carried over because a lot of broadcasters don’t watch games unless they are calling it.
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That HR rate stat is a bit misleading; 5 of the 6 HR he’s allowed occurred in April and May, while he was still building up arm strength post-surgery.
In his last 35 g, 35 1/3 IP, he’s allowed 1 HR, and the opposition is hitting .167/.216/.238 off him. That he’s the beneficiary of a generous strike zone; there’s no question about that. But I think a closer generating that triple rate against is doing pretty well, and if he keeps that up, I have no real worries about him going forward.
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Chris H. Reply:
August 25th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Good point about those homers, Evan. I didn’t even realize that.
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