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Keeping Matsui

Posted by Chris H. at 6:05 pm 25 Responses »
Aug 242009

From Anthony McCarron (Daily News):

Despite his numbers, Matsui’s status with the Yankees is unclear. He is in the final season of a four-year, $52 million contract and the Yankees want to get younger and free up at-bats at designated hitter for Jorge Posada.

Matsui would not delve too deeply into his future Sunday.

“My honest answer is I don’t know,” Matsui said. “I don’t have an answer. As a player, you just try to do better than what you’ve done before. It’s not so much about how the organization or other clubs look at me. All I’m focused on is winning a championship.”

Would he prefer to stay in New York? “I try not to think about that,” he said. “I like New York, the Yankees, the Yankee fans. It’s definitely someplace I feel comfortable.”

If the Yankees lose Matsui in order to free up DH AB’s for Jorge Posada, then I suppose McCarron is assuming that Jose Molina—he’ll have to be resigned—or Francisco Cervelli will be given a substantial number of AB’s at catcher. Is that something the Yankees really want to commit to? Defensively, that’s a win-win, but offensively, I think it’s fair to question that notion. Matsui seems open to returning at a “bargain” rate and, if he’s willing to go year-to-year, then the Yankees should definitely bring him back. He’s a professional hitter that can be rotated in and out of the DH slot in order to give Posada ample rest as well as others. In this sense, Matsui’s knee problems actually help the Yankees in terms of DH flexibility (he can’t DH everyday).

I think the team knows just how important Matsui has been to the club in 2009 and, for that reason, I also think they’ll be very hesitant to simply let him walk after the season is over (a move which has been billed by many as a foregone conclusion). In fact, the only way I see that actually occurring is if Brian Cashman opts to bring Johnny Damon back as the team’s DH while adding Matt Holliday to man left. That way, they’re not losing Matsui’s offense, instead, they’re replacing it and simultaneously bettering their defensive game. That works, right?

What do you think about Matsui? Should the Yankees keep him around for 2010, or are you a fan of the rather ambiguous and inherently problematic rotating DH idea (no, I’m not biased at all)?

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The Posada-Burnett story continues

Posted by Chris H. at 4:00 pm 3 Responses »
Aug 242009

From George King III (NY Post):

After Burnett was spanked for nine runs and nine hits in five innings Saturday in a 14-1 loss, Posada said the pair weren’t on the same page.

Suggesting Girardi assign Molina to Burnett is dicey since he is 1-0 with a 4.08 ERA in three games with Molina. Burnett is 6-5 with a 4.47 ERA in 16 games with Posada. His best ledger comes with Francisco Cervelli, who is at Triple-A. In two games with the rookie Burnett is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA. And he is 1-2 with a 4.11 ERA in four games throwing to Kevin Cash.

Burnett’s next start is Thursday against the Rangers, a day game after a night tilt. If Posada catches Andy Pettitte Wednesday night Girardi would use Molina Thursday.

I honestly doubt that the Yankees will sit Posada when Burnett pitches in his next outing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Girardi pair Pettitte and Molina, instead, so that Posada can definitely catch Burnett on Thursday. A good outing in Texas would confirm that the two can work well together (I guarantee Posada wants to catch Burnett), although it’s an unnecessary move and would ultimately seem like a public relations ploy rather than a strategic decision (if Jorge is lined up for rest, they should let him rest). Posada has had his ups and downs with Burnett and the biggest issue seems to be Burnett’s performance against Boston, not who he’s pitching to, as those outings have inflated his ERA with Posada. That’s my take, anyway.

What do you think? Should Molina take Posada’s place and become Burnett’s regular catcher? Is that even a practical idea?

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An aging Mariano?

Posted by Chris H. at 2:00 pm 11 Responses »
Aug 242009

Here are two interesting numbers for you:

91.9 and 91.4.

91.9 mph is the average velocity of Mariano Rivera’s fastball and 91.4 mph is the average velocity of Mariano’s cutter. These numbers are for this season and are noteworthy as they both signal a significant downturn in Rivera’s overall pitch velocity. In the past, Mo’s fastball has been in the 93 mph range (his career velocity is 93.3 mph) while his cutter has been in the 92-93 range (the pitch has a career velocity of 92.7 mph). Even in 2008, Mo’s fastball typically sizzled at 93.1 mph and his cutter was equally imposing at 92.8 mph (on average). The velocity was there just a year ago, however, a year later we’ve seen a noticeable loss of power on his two primary (and only) pitches.

Mariano and co. seem to have noticed this, too, as Mo is throwing fewer fastballs than ever before. Instead, he’s choosing to throw his cutter more frequently as it is a pitch with enough movement to shoulder the loss in velocity. This season, Mo has only thrown straight fastballs 8.2% of the time, while he has thrown the cutter 91.8% of the time. In the past, fastball usage was a lot higher for Rivera as the percentages between it and his cutter were fairly close. That changed in 2007, though, with Rivera using the cutter more often by a significant margin (73.2% versus 26.7%). Since ’07, he has relied mainly on the cutter and in ’08, when his velocity dropped a bit, Mo used the cutter even more than he had in 2007. Now that his velocity has dipped even further—which may be the result of a combination of things, including age, shoulder soreness and offseason surgery—the fastball has essentially fallen to the wayside and Mo seems to be fine with that as long as his cutter is working.

To further support this theory, one can also look at pitch type values at Fangraphs for more data. You can read about the data here, but as David Appelman notes, the main crux of the data is to “see in runs the actual effectiveness of each pitch.” In 2009, Mariano Rivera’s fastball is valued at -1.4, meaning that, when compared to the league-average fastball, Mo’s fastball is 1.4 runs below average. This is the lowest rating for his fastball on record and is his only negative value, an issue that seems to coincide with the loss in velocity. For comparison purposes, Mo’s cutter is 15.5 runs above average, which is obviously why he uses it as often as he does (the movement and, of course, command allow it to be as effective as it has been). These numbers may seem randomly generated to some, but the wFB value appears to be in agreement with what we’ve seen this season in relation to Rivera’s “fading” fastball.

It will be interesting to see how Rivera’s fastball and cutter look in 2010. It may jump back up to the 93 mph range with a full winter to rest up, however, it may also continue to decrease as he ages. He has still been very effective—one of the best pitchers in baseball—yet his 1.04 HR/9 rate may be foretelling (it’s the highest HR/9 he has had since 1995). If his velocity falls even more next season, it’ll be interesting to see how he performs and whether or not he is brought back for 2011 and beyond.

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September Callups Coming

Posted by EJ Fagan at 12:38 pm 30 Responses »
Aug 242009

I went into the woods for almost 3 months. When I left, Derek Jeter was slumping, Hideki Matsui was finished, A.J. Burnett was a busted contract, and the Yankees were trailing the Red Sox in the division. Things have changed.

One of the best parts about September (for me at least) is seeing who the Yankees choose to bring up when rosters expand. With a 7.5 game lead in the division, the Yankees should be able to get these guys some real playing time. Who can we expect?

The No-Doubters

Francisco Cervelli – There is an argument to be made that he is a better backup catcher than Jose Molina. The Yankees will do their best to get Jorge Posada rest during the lead up to the playoffs, and Cervelli is the perfect player to fill that role.

Mark Melancon – Really, he’s better than Brian Bruney anyway. Melancon will be auditioning for a playoff role.

Juan Miranda – He’ll be up for a lot of reasons. The Yankees may want to show him off to other teams as trade bait. They’ll use him to rest Mark Teixeira a bit, and to pinch hit. And finally, Miranda has been a polite organizational soldier despite being blocked at his only position, and deserves the call up.

Ramiro Pena – He’s back, and in the mix for a bench spot in the playoffs.

Anthony Claggett – Claggett has had a pretty good season for Scranton, and spent some time in the Majors earlier this year. He’ll provide long relief help and maybe even a spot start or two.

The Probably-Maybe’s

Jon Albaladejo - He was pretty bad the last time out, but has had a rock-solid minor league season. The knock against him is that he is somewhere on the brink of being designated for assignment.

Shelly Duncan – In the same boat as Albaladejo.

The Maybe-Nots

Michael Dunn - He’s heading down to the Arizona Fall League. The Yankees will probably want him down in their instructional league.

Ian Kennedy - Kennedy is just beginning his rehab. For service time reasons, the team will stay away from bringing him back to the majors.

The Rule V Guys

Ivan Nova - Nova will be added to the 40-man roster immediately following the season. You can be sure of that. Nova was selected and returned last offseason, and the Yankees aren’t about to risk him again. If they want to get him acclimatized to the majors, they may just add him a month early and let him sit in the bullpen and breathe the same air as Mariano Rivera.

Zach Kroenke – If not added to the 40-man roster, Kroenke will definitely be selected by some team and play in the majors next year. He could probably equal Phil Coke’s production. They may add Kroenke and audition him either for a serious look in spring training next year or a trade.

Austin Jackson - Ditto on everything said for Jackson, though it is probably more likely that we’ll see him work out with the Yankees as a non-roster player, as the Yankees have done with top prospects over the past few years.

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CC's K/9 on the rise

Posted by Chris H. at 10:00 am 2 Responses »
Aug 242009

On July 17th, I wondered about CC Sabathia’s declining strikeout rate, for it seemed like a significant problem. On that day, his K/9 was 6.66, a far cry from the 7.80 K/9 CC put up in 2007 and the NL-heavy 8.93 he put up in 2008. There wasn’t much of an explanation for the issue, although it seems as though a mechanical flaw combined with a “getting to know you” period with the Yankee catchers could have been the cause. Whatever the reason was, CC Sabathia’s K/9 is no longer an issue.

Over the past 30 days, CC has logged 43 innings while striking out 45 batters. His K/9 during that time is 9.42, which is good for 5th best in the AL amongst starters. With each dominant start—and believe me, in August, he’s had a bunch of them—the 6.66 that I wrote about a month ago appears to be a distant memory. After his 8 K performance against Boston last night, CC’s current K/9 is now a healthy 7.19. It’s not the highest we’ve seen from him, but it’s definitely climbing and doing so consistently. He could certainly approach the rate we saw in 2007 if his post-break performance continues to be this good. On top of CC’s increase in K’s, he’s also not walking anyone anymore (1.47 BB/9 over said time frame) and his K/BB is 6.43.

While these numbers indicate that CC has been dominating the competition lately—K’s and BB’s are the main elements controlled by a pitcher—the K/9 stat is especially important to the fans. CC was signed to be the Yankees’ ace. Most fans possess a particular perception of an ace and it tends to be the big strikeout guy. It’s why Chien-Ming Wang never really got the credit that he deserved. Though CC was pitching well for most of the season, he wasn’t striking out as many batters as he had done in previous years. Right now he looks like the pitcher the Yankees signed last winter. He looks like an ace and is proving that with each strikeout, therefore, his rising K/9 is very important. At the end of the year, when fans are asked to evaluate his first season in NY, it’ll be one of the elements they tacitly look to in order to come up with their assessment (rings will be important too, of course).

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Random Thoughts-Red Sox Wrap-up

Posted by Steve S. at 7:40 am 14 Responses »
Aug 242009

-The Yanks have won 6 of the 7 games played against the Sox since Aug. 6, bringing the season series to 6-9. If the season ended today, the Division Series would be the Red Sox vs the Angels and the Yankees vs the Tigers. Detroit is clearly the weakest of the four teams and it’s tough to imagine the Yankees losing to the Tigers again. The Angels look better this season than they were other years when they played Boston, but for whatever reason the Red Sox seem to have their number come October.

-As Pete Abe noted last night, sometimes swinging at the first pitch is a good idea. Its very common that the better pitchers in baseball will have their highest BAA against on that very pitch. Remember this when you hear some fan bitching about first pitch swinging. With some pitchers, that’s the best pitch you’ll see.

-Josh Beckett’s last 2 outings:

IP-13.1
H-18
R-15
ER-15
BB-3
SO-6

Looks like Beckett’s wearing down again, but admittedly it’s too soon to tell. It is worth noting that he followed a similar pattern last year, and wound up on the DL from August 17 to September 5th. The lack of strikeouts jump out at me as much as the Runs scored. From what I could see on yesterday’s ESPN broadcast his stuff just isn’t as sharp. The curve is a little loopy and the fastball is straight. When Beckett’s on, his curve is sharp and his fastball will have a tail on it, moving sideways with late, hard movement. I’ll bet Theo planned on having his all powerful ‘depth’ to give him a blow around now, but we all know how that worked out.

-Andy Pettitte is already dropping hints he wants to pitch next season. With Phil Hughes ticketed to be the Yankee 5th starter next year, that will make for a very interesting decision. You never have enough pitching, but it doesn’t appear there will be an opening.

-Mike Ashmore has a piece up interviewing Yankee minor league pitching guru Nardi Contreres with some interesting notes on Andrew Brackman, Manny Banuelos, Humberto Sanchez and other Yankee farmhands. Check it out.

-Attendance note from NYTimes Bats blog:

The Yankees lead baseball in attendance in the inaugural season of the new Yankee Stadium, averaging 45,715 fans a game, which has them on a pace for a total attendance of 3,702,915. But it is a drastic drop from last season, when they set a franchise record of 4,298,655 fans, the second highest in major league history.

It should be mentioned that the new facility has less capacity than the old one, so it’s impossible to break the old record, even if they go slightly over capacity like the Sox and Phils.

-Maybe John Smoltz isn’t done after all, huh?

-This game ending play from yesterday’s Mets game may not look like much, but the Unassisted Triple Play is one of the rarest plays in Baseball. There have only been 15 recorded in the entire history of the game. They seem to come in bunches, there have been 3 in each league since the 1990s. But before then there were a few in the 20′s and then the NL went 39 years without seeing one and the AL went 65 years.

-For those of you up at that hour, be sure to catch Mark Teixeira on David Letterman tonight. I hope he makes fun of some of those faces he makes when he’s at the plate.

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CC and the offense get it done in Boston

Posted by Chris H. at 7:30 am 3 Responses »
Aug 242009

CC Sabathia threw 6 2/3 innings last night, giving up 3 ER on 8 hits while capturing his league-leading 15th win. He walked 0 and struck out 8. Although CC labored in the Fenway finale, tossing 118 pitches to Jose Molina, he was hurt by a couple of defensive miscues from Robinson Cano (one can argue that the pop-up error was on Tex for not taking control of the play). Cano’s pair of errors ultimately extended CC’s outing yet the Boston lineup deserves a lot of credit for making him work.

Luckily for Sabathia, the Yankee offense got it going against Sox ace, Josh Beckett, scoring 8 ER off him—5 of which were on HR’s—over 8 IP. Prior to yesterday’s effort, Beckett had been undefeated at home, so the victory was no small task. In the end, the Yankees won, 8-4, as they now hold a commanding 7 1/2 game lead over Boston. The team has also won 7 of its last 10 and can return home on a high note (especially with today’s off-day) as they prepare for their series against Texas.

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Minors Recap, 8/23

Posted by Eric Schultz at 1:21 am No Responses »
Aug 242009

Scranton beats Buffalo, 2-1

  • Jason Hirsh continued his impressive pitching, giving up a run on 6 hits in 6 innings of work, with 4 strikeouts.  Since being acquired from Colorado, the 6’8″ righty is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA, and 16 strikeouts against 4 walks in 21 innings.  His one major problem is the flyball, as he has a .42 GO/AO ratio.
  • Mike Dunn continued his strong AAA pitching, giving up a hit in 2 scoreless.  Since he was added to the 40-man roster in the offseason, Dunn will likely be called up to the bigs when the rosters expand on September 1.
  • Jon Albaladejo struck out the side in a perfect 9th.
  • Kevin Russo was 3 for 4 with a double.  He’s hitting .340 on the season with a .861 OPS, and given his versatility in the infield, it’s not too hard to imagine Russo being a useful player in the bigs.  Probably not with the Yankees though, as Jerry Hairston and Ramiro Pena are ahead of him in the utilityman depth chart.
  • Austin Jackson was 1 for 4 with a double, and his average has fallen below .300.
  • Yurendell de Caster was 3 for 4.
  • Chris Stewart was 1 for 3.

Trenton tops New Hampshire, 5-4 (7 innings, game 1)

  • Lance Pendleton started, giving up 2 runs on a hit and 4 walks in 3 1/3 innings, with 4 strikeouts.
  • Kanekoa Texeira gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and a walk in 2 2/3 innings, with 3 strikeouts.
  • Austin Krum was 1 for 3 with a walk and a double.
  • Matt Cusick was 1 for 2.
  • Eduardo Nunez raised his average to .309 with a 1 for 2 game, and also walked.
  • Noah Hall was 1 for 3 with a homer.
  • Chris Malec was 2 for 3.
  • Edwar Gonzalez was 1 for 3.

Trenton falls to New Hampshire, 7-2

  • Jeremy Bleich continued his AA struggles, giving up 6 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 3 innings, raising his ERA to 6.47 since being promoted.
  • Grant Duff, who will likely play in the Arizona Fall League, pitched 3 innings, giving up an unearned run on a walk, and striking out 1.  He has reportedly been hitting the high 90′s with his fastball, which is exciting.
  • Austin Krum, Matt Cusick, Noah Hall, and Chris Malec were 1 for 3.
  • Eduardo Nunez was 2 for 3.
  • Marcos Vechionacci was 1 for 2 with a walk and his 19th error.

Tampa over Lakeland, 3-1 (7 innings, game 1)

  • DJ Mitchell kept doing his thing, giving up 4 hits and a walk in 5 shutout innings, and striking out 4.  He also recorded 10 groundball outs against just 1 flyout, so clearly his sinker was working today.
  • Brad Rulon walked 1 and struck out 1 in 2/3 shutout innings.
  • David Adams was 1 for 4.
  • Austin Romine was 1 for 3.
  • Damon Sublett was 1 for 3 with a double.
  • Kevin Smith was 2 for 3 with a double.
  • Luis Nunez was 2 for 3, and was caught stealing.

Tampa defeats Lakeland, 10-3 (7 innings, game 2)

  • Jairo Heredia got the win, giving up a run on 8 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings, with 3 strikeouts.  Since being promoted to Tampa after missing most of the season, the 19 year-old righty has given up just 1 run in 12 innings.
  • Pat Venditte struck out 1 in a perfect inning of relief.
  • David Adams was 2 for 3 with a double and a homer.
  • Austin Romine was 1 for 3 with a walk.
  • Damon Sublett was 1 for 4 with a double.
  • Brandon Laird was 1 for 3 with a walk.
  • Kevin Smith was 2 for 4.
  • Seth Fortenberry was 1 for 3 with a walk.
  • Jose Gil was 2 for 3.

Charleston edges Augusta, 14-13

  • Cory Arbiso got bombed, giving up 8 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in only 1 2/3 innings.  Ouch.  That’ll ruin a nice ERA.
  • Manny Banuelos got the win, holding the hot Augusta bats scoreless through 2 innings, while striking out 3 and giving up a hit and a walk.
  • Jose Pirela was 3 for 6, raising his average to .301.
  • Abe Almonte was 4 for 6 with a double and a triple, boosting his average to .263.  Almonte has been hot in the month of August, batting .351 with a .856 OPS.  If he can finish strong and maintain this performance, I might be willing to forgive his rough start.
  • Corban Joseph was 4 for 5 with a throwing error.  He is back over .300, to .301.
  • Melky Mesa was 1 for 4.
  • Taylor Grote was 2 for 4 with a walk and a double.
  • Addison Maruszak was 1 for 3 with 2 walks.
  • Garrison Lassiter was 0 for 5.
  • Jeff Farnham was 1 for 5.
  • Ray Kruml was 2 for 4 with a walk.

Staten Island blanked by Hudson Valley, 1-0 (game 1, 7 innings)

  • Adam Warren was the hard luck loser, giving up a run on 4 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings, with 7 strikeouts.  He has been dominant since he started pitching for SI, with a 1.13 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, and has also kept the ball on the ground with a 2.63 GO/AO ratio.
  • Neil Medchill had 1 of the Yankees’ 3 hits, goign 1 for 3.
  • Carmen Angelini and Justin Milo were 1 for 2.  Angelini got picked off, which hurts in a game that ends up being decided by 1 run.

Staten Island defeats Hudson Valley, 8-2

  • Matt Richardson started, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings, with 1 strikeout.
  • Gavin Brooks got the win, lowering his ERA to 0.79 with 2 scoreless innings.
  • Jimmy Paredes was 1 for 4.
  • Deangelo Mack, Neil Medchill, and Luke Murton were each 2 for 3.  Murton and Mack also walked.
  • Kelvin Castro was 1 for 3 with a double.
  • Hector Rabago was 2 for 3.
  • Emerson Landoni was 2 for 4 with a double.

The GCL was off today, but hopefully Slade Heathcott will make his debut sometime next week.

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