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The Numbers On The Yankees Bullpen

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 4:02 pm 11 Responses »
Aug 202009

I was just perusing the MLB statistics page over at ESPN, and noticed some fascinating numbers regarding the Yankee bullpen. Remember, the overall numbers are hindered by the poor performances of players no longer on the roster, making the totals even more fascinating.

The Yankees bullpen is 2nd in MLB in WHIP and K/9, at 1.26 and 8.56 respectively. It is first in K/BB at 2.47, 2nd in BAA against at .233, and first in OBPA (.309). However, it is last in home runs at 58 (leading to a 20th in SLG at .406), which is expected from a team that strikes out plenty of guys, had some bad pitching in April, and plays in a park conducive to long balls. Those factors have lead the Yankee bullpen to have a 4.14 ERA, good for 18th in baseball. That being said, the drastic improvement since April and the stellar peripherals suggest that this is now one of the best bullpens in baseball.

On an individual level, the Yankees have two players in the top 15 in ERA for relievers with at least 20 IP (Hughes, Rivera), 3 in the top 15 of K/BB (Rivera is 1st, Hughes, Aceves), and two in the top 10 for K/9 (Robertson, Hughes). In WHIP, they have 2 in the top 10 (Hughes, Rivera) and 3 in the top 25 (Aceves), and have 2 in the top 10 for OBPA (Hughes, Rivera), 1 in the top 10 for BAA and SLGA (Hughes), and two in the top 20 for OPS (Hughes, RIvera). The obvious conclusion is that the Yankee bullpen is quite excellent, and that Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera are leading the charge. Go take a look at Hughes’ numbers as a reliever and his rank among the games’ elite firemen. They are mindblowing.

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Jeter's Next Contract

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 2:00 pm 11 Responses »
Aug 202009

There has been a lot of Jeter stuff going up in the last few days, but that is to be expected when the Yankee captain is putting together an MVP type season. Mark Feinsand chimed in with the latest, on Jeter’s contract situation:

Jeter’s contract is up at the end of 2010, and his situation will be a very tricky one for the Yankees. It’s hard to imagine him taking a huge pay cut, especially when you consider the MVP-type season he’s having this year. But his 10-year, $189 million deal was signed in the one year when salaries were at their all-time highest. Is he worth more than $20 million a year at age 37 and beyond?

At the same time, it’s virtually impossible to imagine him in another uniform. I can’t help but think that as much as the Yankees need Jeter to be the face of the franchise, Jeter needs the Yankees just as much. Seeing him finish his career in another uniform would just be strange. He’s talked about how special it is to play his entire career with one team – the one he grew up rooting for, no less – so I have to assume they’ll figure something out.

How long will Jeter play beyond 2010? He doesn’t seem to have any set plan, and as far as I can tell, he’ll take it year by year and see how his body feels, how he’s playing and how much fun it is for him. Unlike some players of the past that hung on way too long, Jeter has more money than he’ll ever need and he’s already got his championships….

Jeter’s future will be a very hot topic next season unless the Yankees get him signed to an extension before he becomes a free agent. He’s not thinking about his next contract any more than he’s thinking about retirement, but at some point down the road, he’ll have to figure out just how long he wants to continue playing the game.

I have no idea what kind of contract Jeter is going to get, although I would probably propose something like 3 years, 54 million, with a mutual option for a 4th at 16M. Jeter deserves the money, and quite frankly, there is absolutely no way that the Yankees let him go anywhere. Furthermore, his performance defensively this year suggests that even if he declines at the plate, he will no longer be killing the Yankees in the field. I think there is a better than zero shot that he approaches 54 million in value over that term, and his status as a Yankee icon makes any overpayment worth it.

Additionally, I would like to focus on Feinsand’s last paragraph.J eter is probably going to want to discuss an extension this offseason. He will be coming off a great year, and the team may want to avoid a year of stories about bringing him back after each slump. They know they are going to have to pay him anyhow, and this is actually a better financial market for the team to claim that times have changed and infielders dont get 20 million anymore. It makes sense for both sides to get an extension completed in the offseason. Get it done, Cashman.

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Patting Girardi (and Myself) On The Back Over The Jeter-Damon Flip

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 12:00 pm 8 Responses »
Aug 202009

Those of you who have been reading this blog from inception know that I championed flipping Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon in the batting order back in February. At the time, I said the following:

When considering these factors, it seems obvious that a switch should be made. The one element that supports keeping things as they are is Damon’s speed, as he is a much better base stealer than Jeter at this point. However, the remainder of the data points in the opposite direction. Unless Jeter’s poor season was a sign of a steep decline, Derek is better at reaching base than Damon, with a 30 point edge in OBP over their careers. However, Damon is less prone to the strikeout (12.1 K% to 17.1 for Jeter) and is significantly better at keeping the ball off the ground (1.33 GB/FB compared to 2.36). Essentially, this means that Damon is able to put up similar numbers to Jeter while making more contact and hitting fewer ground balls, both qualities that help avoid rally killing double plays and strikeouts from the #2 slot. Finally, Damon has a bit more power than Jeter, another element that suggests flipping them would lead to more runs.

As we all know, Joe Girardi was paying attention, and flipped the two players as spring training came to a close. As Peter Abraham notes, the move has seemingly worked well:

Nearly five months later, it has worked out spectacularly well. Through games played Tuesday, the Yankees were second in the majors in runs scored and team batting average and first in on-base percentage.

Going into last night’s game against Oakland, Jeter was hitting .330 with a .394 on-base percentage. Jeter’s 15 home runs are his most since he hit 19 in 2005 and his 20 stolen bases are the most since he had 34 in 2006.

Jeter is sixth in the American League with 80 runs scored, second with 159 hits and fifth in batting average. Among leadoff hitters, he is second in batting average and on-base percentage.

The question is, have the reasons I gave for the move initially actually been borne out on the field?

Well, Derek is still better at reaching base than Damon, with a 30 point edge in OBP (.395 to .365). Additionally, it has become clear that the baserunning concerns I touched on were unfounded, as Jeter is a perfectly efficient basestealer at the top of the lineup (21 of 25, compared to 9-9 by Damon). Damon is striking out more than Jeter is, but makes up for it with a significantly higher isolated power rate (ISO) of .234 to Jeter’s .140. Finally, Damon continues to hit fewer groundballs than Jeter, with a GB/FB ratio of .88 compared to Jeter’s 2.16. Both players have a wOBA of .385.

What does it all mean? Well, we have two players having similar offensive impact (hence the same wOBA for both), but one has more speed, hits more groundballs, and reaches base at a higher clip, while the other hits the ball in the air and is hitting for more power. The obvious move is to have that first player leading off, and the second batting #2, which is what the Yankees have in fact done. This is one decision that has worked out perfectly.

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Random Thoughts-Game 121

Posted by Steve S. at 7:55 am 6 Responses »
Aug 202009

-Here’s the pitching match ups for the upcoming Yanks-Red Sox series:

Friday-Pettitte vs Penny

Saturday-Burnett vs Tazawa

Sunday-Sabathia vs Beckett

We really should take 2 of 3, even in Boston. Beckett got shelled his last time out, so maybe that shoulder is wearing down like it did last year.

-Here’s an ESPN360 piece on ambidextrous Yankee farmhand Pat Venditte. Check it out.

-As Tom reported yesterday, the Yanks announced yesterday that Joba will be getting 6 more starts. Figure he throws about 6 IP each, so that puts him at around 163 IP for the season. With 3 playoff starts (1 per round) he could go as high as 180+. More than I thought, but I’ll trust their judgment. The main thing is they’re keeping him strong at the end of the year. Pitchers tend to get hurt when they’re fatigued, and all this extra rest at the end of the year should avoid that pitfall. At those innings levels, his restrictions should be removed for next year. Though I’m sure they will still be careful with him.

-Bud Selig wants a worldwide draft and hard caps for signing bonuses.

“There’s no question in my mind, in 2011, certainly a [hard] slotting system and a worldwide draft are things we will be very aggressive in talking about,” Selig said

I’ll have a full length piece going up on this later today, but I have my doubts that it will have the intended effect. If they allow teams to trade picks, it will very likely backfire.

-Nice story about CC Sabathia giving back to his hometown school.

OAKLAND — Imagine walking through the doors of your elementary school for the first day of classes and being greeted by a Major League player, offering you a new backpack to begin the year.

That was the memorable experience for approximately 500 students on Wednesday at the Loma Vista Elementary School in Vallejo, Calif., as Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia returned to the hallways he once roamed and offered to pitch in for his hometown.

“It was fun going back,” Sabathia said. “There’s a few teachers who are still there from when I was there. It was fun to go there and talk to the kids, and hang out for a while and give them some school supplies. Everyone was a little antsy.”

Sabathia appeared with his “PitCCh In Foundation,” offering fully loaded black backpacks to students. Along with an autographed photo, each backpack also contained binders, lined paper, rulers, erasers, pencil sharpeners and crayons.

CC has been everything Yankee fans could have hoped for on and off the field, and in the clubhouse as well.

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Joba Will Get 6 More Starts

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 5:59 am 5 Responses »
Aug 202009

Here’s the scoop from Pete Abe: Joba and the Yankees have sat down and mapped out six more starts for the rest of the regular season.  As has been previously reported, the gloves will apparently be off for the playoffs.  Young Mr. Chamberlain has hurled 126+ innings so far this year, averaging about 6 per, so 6 more games would put him at 162ish, an increase of about 60 over his previous high of 100 last year.  This would be roughly double the “Verducci effect” limit of 30 innings.

Though the Verducci effect is not scientific, and there are many other factors which affect the phenomenon, it is akin to playing with fire, especially when you add the playoff innings onto the already high regular season totals.  The Yankees seem to be trying to walk the tightrope between the two options: not shutting him down at his limit, yet not pitching him on regular rest, either.  Only time will tell whether this middle road strategy will bear fruit.  Joba seems pleased with the plan, stating that, “It gives my arm the rest that this whole thing is for, so it all worked out great… Mentally, for me to know that this is the plan for the rest of the year, it’s definitely calming.”

You have to also wonder whether this plan will wind up burning the bullpen, with Gaudin, Mitre, and a limited Joba all requiring significant innings of relief.  The other options of shutting Joba down and starting Hughes or Aceves in his stead or switching him to the pen are not all that appealing, either, so it’s not like there’s a clearly superior alternative.  Sometimes you have to take precautions but also roll the dice and hope the guy holds up and that seems to be what the Yanks are doing in this case.

What do you guys think of the news?  Do you like the “middle path” the Yanks seem to be taking with Joba?

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