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Fangraphs On Gaudin

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:36 pm No Responses »
Aug 072009

From Fangraphs:

For the Yankees, he’s a nice addition, though. Don’t be swayed by his ERA in the National League, which is driven by a high BABIP and a low LOB%, neither of which are particularly good predictors of future performance. Gaudin has a solid fastball/slider combination and is extremely tough on right-handed hitters. Unfortunately, his change-up kind of sucks, so lefties give him serious problems, which is why he’s never been able to hold down a job as a starting pitcher…..

Whatever role he ends up filling over the last two months, he’s certainly going to be a reliever in October if he makes the playoff roster, and he could be a pretty good one if the Yankees use right. As a right-handed specialist, he could be a real asset out of the pen. Look at him as Jeff Nelson 2.0, and use him accordingly, and New York will have added a nice piece. If they continue to force him to face lefties, though, it won’t be as pretty.

I think there is a decent chance that he ends up as the 5th starter in short order, but he sounds like a nice piece to have out of the bullpen in the postseason. I could see him being used to face a tough right-handed hitter like Youkilis or Miguel Cabrera in the latter innings of a playoff game. This would allow Joe Girardi to use Phil Coke more judiciously, possibly paring Gaudin and Coke to get through innings that have two lefties and a righty.

Assuming that Sergio Mitre does not make the postseason roster, the Yankees would have a rotation of CC, AJ, Joba, and Pettitte, and a bullpen of Gaudin, Melancon, Robertson, Bruney, Coke, Aceves, Hughes, and Rivera. That bullpen could probably use another lefty, so Damaso Marte may steal a spot should he prove himself ready to contribute over the next few weeks. Otherwise, it is a versatile pen, with Gaudin, Hughes, and Aceves able to give some length, Coke to match up with tough lefties, and Robertson/Melancon/Bruney able to notch some strikeouts with runners on earlier in the game.

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Pena Called Up, Claggett Sent Down

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 4:38 pm No Responses »
Aug 072009

Peter Abraham has the news, reporting that Pena is up for Claggett. This gives the Yankees incredible flexibility on the bench, with Jerry Hairston Jr. and Pena both being able to play multiple positions adequately. When Brett Gardner returns, I would expect that Pena be sent back down.

In regard to the pitching staff, Chad Gaudin will join the club on Sunday, and one of Mark Melancon and David Robertson is likely to go down to Scranton. I think the Yankees have seemed intent on keeping Melancon with the big club, and he will stay. However, whichever of the two the Yankees choose to send down may not be gone for long. If Gaudin takes Sergio Mitre’s rotation spot, we may see Mitre jettisoned in favor of the previously discarded reliever. It should be interesting to keep an eye on.

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The Melancon - Pedroia Incident

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm No Responses »
Aug 072009

In the 8th inning of last night’s blowout, Mark Melancon hit Dustin Pedroia on the shoulder with a pitch, a few pitches after throwing wildly over Pedroia’s head. Dustin was not pleased, barking at Melancon as Posada escorted the diminutive second baseman to first. Here is what the principals had to say:

“I don’t know,” Pedroia said after the game. “It’s kind of surprising, obviously. It goes over your head, that’s really nothing to mess around with. I don’t know. I don’t know why they’d be throwing at me, if they were. Especially in that situation. It’s a blowout. That’s fine.”

The Yankees led 13-4 when the right-handed reliever Melancon hit Pedroia in the eighth inning.

“Of course, when you get hit I’m sure it hurts,” Melancon said. “But if he thought there was any intention of me throwing at him, he’s wrong. There’s no intention by me to hit him. I mean, we’re up eight runs at the time. I’m just trying to throw strikes and get outs.”

Both Yankees manager Joe Girardi and Red Sox manager Terry Francona came onto the field after the play.

“Our guy was trying to go inside… and it was very unfortunate we hit him,” Girardi said. “It’s 13-4, we’re not trying to hit anyone.”

I doubt that Melancon was throwing at Pedroia on purpose. There would have been no reason for it, and it does not seem to be in Melancon’s nature. Furthermore, if you wanted to hit somebody, you likely would not do it on the 7th pitch of an at-bat, after allowing the batter to swing at a number of your pitches. It just does not add up. The fact of the matter is that Melancon threw 28 pitches, with only 16 going for strikes. He was wild, and a few pitches got away from him. If I had to guess, Pedroia was just trying to get his team emotionally invested in the series, as they are in a funk and need something to help them out of it. We will see if Josh Beckett takes the cue when he steps on the hill this evening.

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Bobby Abargain

Posted by Chris H. at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Aug 072009

Remember Bobby Abreu?

After 2008, with a healthy Xavier Nady in tow and despite 2 1/2 very productive seasons in New York, the Yankee front office was fine with letting Abreu walk (he loves walking, so why not?). At the time, the move was considered the right one, especially since Abreu appeared to be on the decline. His defense, in particular, had become a major weakness. He had played terrible defense with the Yankees in 2006, passable defense in 2007 and, if it wasn’t for Brad Hawpe’s iron glove, Bobby would have been the worst right fielder in baseball in 2008 (-25.6 UZR). In fact, his defense was so bad a season ago that it had negated most of his offensive value (he was worth 1.2 WAR). Based on that element alone, it seemed like a good idea to let him go without offering him arbitration or a new contract, especially with Nady on board.

Over the winter, other teams appeared to agree with the Yankees’ line of thinking, as Abreu struggled to find work (the economy didn’t help matters, of course). Here’s what Abreu had to say about the situation to Tim Brown (Yahoo!):

“What happened to me in the offseason was hard to understand,” he says. “I know people talk about my defense. But you know what, in the end last year I had, what, 14 assists?”

Ten, actually. And nobody runs on the arms that they don’t think they can run on. Still, his point …

“I could not believe other players got contracts and I had good numbers and I didn’t have a contract offer out there anywhere,” he says. “I don’t make trouble. I go out on the field and play hard, just one way, play hard. Really, I’m not a troublemaker. I’m a nice and calm person.”

In the end, LA decided to take a chance on this “nice and calm” person (was that a jab at the Cubs for bringing in Milton Bradley?), signing him to a one-year deal worth $5 million so that he could help protect Torii Hunter (according to Fangraphs, due to his poor defense in 2009, a $5 million deal is what the Yankees should have paid Abreu in his final year). Abreu now makes less than teammates Gary Matthews Jr. and Chone Figgins.

Little did we know that the Angels had themselves a bargain. In LA, Abreu is hitting .322/.416/.453. He has 8 homers and 22—yes, 22—stolen bases on the year (he’s been caught 5 times). In 2008, while in pinstripes, Abreu stole 22 bases all season but was caught 11 times (not the best percentage). His wOBA in ’09 is .387—the highest it’s been since 2006. He walks 14.6% of the time, which is also his best percentage since the ’06 season. On top of that, his defense has improved. His range in RF is still a negative factor, however, he isn’t nearly as bad as he was in 2006 or 2008. Instead, he’s playing very passable defense in ’09 as his UZR/150 is -3 (similar to his ’07 season with the Yankees, when he had a -2.5 UZR/150). This season, Abreu has been worth 3.1 WAR. Essentially, he’s playing the way he did in 2007 while in the Bronx, though his numbers are actually better in LA.

If teams knew that they would be getting the ’07 version of Bobby Abreu, he would have found himself a longer list of suitors last winter. The Yankees are happy to have Nick Swisher, who offers many of the qualities Abreu had, however, when you consider how well Abreu has played in LA, I’m sure they would have been in on him instead of ignoring him over the offseason. Also, Swisher has had a bad year in right field and is being paid more than Abreu is in 2009 ($5 million versus $5.3 million), so when you factor that into the equation, his 1.7 WAR isn’t nearly as good as what Abreu would have provided. With that said, for all we know, Abreu could have been a terrible defender with the Yankees in 2009, therefore, it’s hard to compare the two. Plus, the Yankees were expecting Nady to be in right, not Swisher, so that limits the comparison (Abreu probably would have been better than a healthy Nady, though).

Come 2010, after his one-year deal is up, it’ll be interesting to see what type of payday is in store for Abreu. His defense is fine—for now—and his offense is better than it has been in years. As long as he remains healthy, he should be able to get himself a multi-year deal (with LA or another club). He has definitely earned it this season.

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Counterpoint: Joba Got Squeezed

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 11:30 am No Responses »
Aug 072009

 

Do you see the lower righthand corner, which is the inside corner to righties and outside corner to lefties? Derryl Cousins decided that this was not a strike. By doing so, he forced Joba away from the lower portion of the strikezone all night. As the following chart shows, most of the squeezing was done with righty hitters at the plate, killing Joba’s platoon advantage:

Joba threw 7 pitches in the lower quadrant of the zone to righties, and 6 were called balls. Essentially, a few of the walks issued by Joba should not have been walks, and he may not have left as many balls up if he could trust that a pitch in the lower half of the strikezone would be called properly. Did Joba pitch well? He most definitely did not. But his erratic stuff was exacerbated by Derryl Cousins’ ridiculously small strikezone.

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Joba-Posada Drama?

Posted by Chris H. at 10:00 am 20 Responses »
Aug 072009

From Peter Abraham (LoHud):

Joe Girardi was in a weird mood after the game. He refused to say why he went to the mound to speak to Joba Chamberlain in the first inning. According to Chamberlain, it was to get the signs straightened out. I suspect it was more to keep Chamberlain and Posada from killing each other. Then Girardi actually said he thought Chamberlain pitched pretty well, which obviously is silly.

The Yankees won last night, scoring 13 runs against Boston pitching.

However, while they gained a game on the Red Sox in the AL East, the team now has a problem that must be dealt with. That problem pertains to Joba Chamberlain and the ineffectiveness that we witnessed in the Bronx. Against the Sox, we saw the Joba of old—the Joba from the first half of the season, who shook off signs, fell behind hitters and failed to work quickly. As PA notes, Jorge Posada was visibly upset with him and, with 7 walks over 5 innings pitched, the frustration was understandable. What had changed since Joba’s last start? Why was he reverting back to his bad habits? I’m not sure, but I do believe that the situation will be addressed by Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland (they know to nip it in the bud).

Based on what we’ve seen after the All-Star break, Joba needs to pitch-and-go. He needs to throw the ball like he’s doubleparked in order to be effective. That means no more shaking off Posada, who has really done an outstanding job with Joba this season. Joba must learn to trust his catcher—that’s what he has done since returning from the All-Star break and that’s what he must continue to do, for it has been a successful method. Some may argue that Joba was hurt by the Yankees’ offensive outburst in the 4th (it was a very long break) or that he just had a single bad start, however, the Joba we saw last night was far too familiar. He’ll need to get back to the formula we saw prior to his performance against Boston.

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End of the line for John Smoltz?

Posted by Steve S. at 6:51 am 4 Responses »
Aug 072009

As I celebrated the Yanks huge 4th inning last night, I couldn’t help but feel a twinge of sadness for the great John Smoltz (or ‘Shmoltz’ as Paul O’Neill would say) as he walked off the mound. He’s one of the best pitchers of his generation, part of Yankee history with Game 5 vs Andy Pettitte in the 1996 World Series, and by all accounts one of the most hard working and classiest guys in the game. Here’s what Red Sox manager Terry Francona said after yesterday’s debacle:

“Once it went, it seemed to go in a hurry,” said manager Terry Francona, who looked downtrodden. “We have a lot of things we need to talk about. When I get done answering questions, I will give Theo [Epstein] a call.”

Even Smoltz himself is unsure of his own fate, and said this after the game in the same article:

When asked if he’s confident he’ll make his next start, Smoltz had a curious, if not understandable, answer.

“I just want to wake up and go to work tomorrow and see what happens,” he said.

So much for the much-ballyhooed Red Sox pitching depth we heard about all spring. I never bought into it myself. The idea behind the Smoltz signing was to have a great pitcher (albeit an aging one) with an amazing pedigree who would get better as the season progressed, and be ready to dominate by this time. His age wouldn’t be an issue since he’d only have to work half a season. This was Theo creating this year’s Roger Clemens, covering his bases with a HOF pitcher if somebody in his rotation got hurt. He could even use him out of the bullpen if needed, setting up a dream 1-2 punch with Smoltz and Paps. At the time he was signed, Theo said this:

“The reason that we’re acquiring John Smoltz is to put him in a position to get back to 100 percent and dominate in the most important times of year for us,” said Epstein, the team’s general manager, on the day of Smoltz was introduced. “That works backward from October, the stretch run, the second half of the season.”

But as we Yankee fans learned with Clemens and Randy Johnson, it’s hard enough for a healthy 40+ pitcher to go from the NL to the AL East and succeed, much less one coming off major shoulder surgery. Had the Yankees signed Smoltz, all we would have heard about are the question marks surrounding him, but for some reason the Sox got a pass. Two World titles in the past 5 seasons will certainly buy you some slack with the media, but that doesn’t mean the move made sense. And when will people ever learn that when the Atlanta Braves give up on a pitcher (Smoltz, Glavine, Jaret Wright) they probabaly know something you don’t. Mainly that he doesn’t have much left.

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Can Chad Gaudin get the Job Done?

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 2:03 am 11 Responses »
Aug 072009

Well Mr. Cashman seems to have pulled off the deal for his 5th starter, albeit a week after the trade deadline.  Chad Gaudin is young (26), though oft-travelled, and cheap (prorated minimum for the rest of the season), and, though the player going back to the Padres hasn’t been announced, it seems likely that Cash didn’t give up very much for him.  In that respect, it certainly seems like  a can’t lose type of deal, but the real question is: can he fill that 5th starter hole?  Let’s take a quick look at Mr. Gaudin before we make our guess in that regard.

Scouting Report:

The 26-year-old righty will be with his sixth team in as many years when he reports for the Yanks on Sunday.  That’s not exactly a great sign, is it?  He’s always been a bit of a tease, as several organizations have fallen in love with him, only to give up on him a year or two later.  This scouting report from last year will attest to the array of skills that makes him such a tempting addition in so many trades.

Positives:

  • He strikes guys out: This season, he has a stellar 8.97 k/9 and he’s always had a knack for missing bats.
  • Movement: This guy doesn’t throw anything straight.  Though his fastball only averages about 90 (90.2 this year), he can touch 94 and his ball moves all over the place.  His slider is his best pitch and drops off a table.  A whopping 32% of his pitches have been sliders this year.  He also throws a weird changeup that he calls a two seam change (6.6% of the time this year).  This pitch has a ton of action and averages almost 85mph!
  • He’s entering his prime years where many guys have breakout years.

Negatives:

  • He also walks a ton of guys and has legitimate control issues (4+ BB/9).  This may be a particular issue against patient teams like the Red Sox.
  • He’s a small frame guy, only 5’10″ so he doesn’t have any projection left on his body.  This also may put him in a higher injury risk pool.
  • He doesn’t really change speeds.  His heater is 90, his change is 85 – not much difference there.  There’s a bit more of a gap on his slider (80mph), but even so, there’s no true off-speed pitch in his arsenal.
  • His ERA this year is a hideous 5.13 which would typically go up almost a half-run in the switch from NL to AL.  The Yanks would really like a sub-5 ERA from their 5th starter.
  • There’s a reason why he’s been traded 5 times and got released by the Cubs earlier this year.

Will it work?

I’m going to vote yes on this one.  I think he can pitch to a mid to high 4 ERA which Cash would be thrilled to have from the #5 man in the rotation.  Why do I think this, despite the litany of issues listed above?  A couple reasons:

  1. His peripherals are mostly promising.  With a tidy 3.51 FIP and the k/9 numbers, he appears to be pitching in some bad luck.  In 2007, he pitched to a 4.42 ERA as an A’s starter and he’s picked up his k/9 and FIP rates since then, so a mid 4 ERA is very attainable.
  2. He’s in pretty good form right now.  He was awful his last start (6 runs in 3.1 against the Braves) but he allowed 3 runs or less in each of his previous 4 starts.

I think he’s definitely worth a shot and the price is right.  I feel like he has a very good chance of solidifying that 5th starter spot.  I wouldn’t call it a home run by Cash yet, but maybe a solid double.  What do you guys think?  Do you think Gaudin seems like a guy who could nail down that job.

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Minors Recap, 8/6

Posted by Eric Schultz at 1:33 am No Responses »
Aug 072009

Scranton shuts out Lehigh Valley, 6-0

  • Recently-signed Russ Ortiz started for the Yankees, and he pitched very well.  IN 6 shutout innings, Ortiz gave up 3 hits and 3 walks, and fanned 3.
  • Michael Dunn struck out 2 in 2 perfect innings.
  • Edwar Ramirez gave up 2 hits in an inning of relief, and struck out 2.
  • Ramiro Pena was 2 for 4 with a double and an error.
  • Austin Jackson was 1 for 4 with his 21st stolen base of the season.
  • Shelley Duncan was 1 for 3 with a walk.
  • Juan Miranda was 2 for 4 with a double.
  • Yurendell de Caster was 2 for 4 with 2 doubles.
  • Colin Curtis was 1 for 4.
  • Chris Stewart was 2 for 4 with a double.

Trenton falls to Reading, 8-4

  • Lance Pendleton started for the Thunder, giving up 4 runs on 5 hits and a walk in 5 1/3 innings, with 8 strikeouts.
  • Humberto Sanchez struck out 3 in 2 innings of 1-hit ball.
  • Austin Krum was 2 for 4 with a double.
  • Reegie Corona was 1 for 4 with a double.
  • Chris Malec was 1 for 5.
  • Richie Robnett was 2 for 5 with a steal.
  • James Cooper and Noah Hall were 1 for 4.  Cooper stole a base and Hall walked.
  • Marcos Vechionacci was 2 for 5 with his 7th homer of the season.
  • Justin Snyder was 3 for 3 with a double and a walk.

Tampa tops Lakeland, 7-6

  • DJ Mitchell put together a strong outing, giving up a run on 5 hits in 6 innings of work, with 8 strikeouts.  He lowered his FSL ERA to 3.16 with this outing.
  • Dan Brewer was 4 for 5.
  • David Adams and Austin Romine were 1 for 5.  Romine was also caught stealing.
  • Damon Sublett was 1 for 4 with a triple.
  • Brandon Laird was 1 for 3 with a walk and his first steal of the season.
  • Luis Nunez was 3 for 4.
  • Jose Gil and Walter Ibarra were each 1 for 4.  Ibarra also stole a base.

Charleston defeats Augusta, 4-3

  • Trenton Lare got the win for the Riverdogs, giving up 3 runs on 8 hits in 7 innings of work, and striking out 4.
  • Jose Pirela was 0 for 4.
  • Abe Almonte was 2 for 4 with a double and a triple.
  • Corban Joseph and Taylor Grote were 1 for 4.
  • Ray Kruml was 1 for 4 with a double.
  • Garrison Lassiter was 1 for 4 with his 1st homer of the season.
  • Addison Maruszak and Mitch Abeita were 1 for 3.

Staten Island falls to Williamsport, 2-1 (10 innings)

  • Adam Warren gave up his first run of the season in 4 2/3 innings of work, allowing 7 hits and 4 strikeouts.
  • The Yankees only managed 4 hits.
  • Deangelo Mack was 1 for 3 with a walk.
  • Kelvin Castro was 2 for 4 with a triple.
  • Emerson Landoni was 1 for 1 with a walk.

GCL Yanks defeated by Braves, 2-1 (7 innings, game 1)

  • Nik Turley took the loss, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings, with 2 strikeouts.
  • Manny Barreda struck out 3 in 2 perfect innings of relief.
  • Ramon Flores was 0 for 2 with 2 walks and his 5th steal of the season.
  • Jose toussen was 1 for 3 with a walk.
  • Kelvin de Leon was 1 for 4.
  • Jose Mojica was 0 for 2 with a walk.
  • Jud Golsan was 1 for 3.

GCL Yanks beat Braves, 7-6 (game 2)

  • Mikey O’Brien started, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in 3 innings of work, while striking out 3.
  • Jud Golsan was 0 for 2 wiht a walk, an error, and a steal.
  • Jose Toussen was 2 for 3 with a walk.
  • Kevin Mahoney was 1 for 3.
  • Kelvin De Leon was 1 for 3 with his 5th steal of the season.
  • Jose Mojica was 2 for 4.
  • Buck Afenir was 1 for 3 with a double.
  • Isaac Harrow was 2 for 2 with a double and a walk.

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