We’ve heard conflicting reports lately about the Yankee interest in getting into the Roy Halladay sweepstakes. It’s hard to know who’s telling the truth, since its in the Blue Jays interest to have them involved, and in the Yankee’s interest to downplay their true motives if they are.
There’s an element to consider if the Yanks truly have a lack of interest in Roy Halladay. The guy is 32 years old, so even without an extension (which Halladay says he doesn’t want) you’d have to expect him to be declining within the next few years. Lets look at the 2010 roster and the Yankee commitments already on the books to older players, assuming a Halladay deal:
The Baker dvd Player’s name/2010 age/Salary A Sister’s Secret full
Roy Halladay/33/$15.75 mil
Alex Rodriguez/34/$32 mil
Derek Jeter/36/$21 mil
Jorge Posada/38/$13 mil
Mariano Rivera/40/$15 mil
Mark Teixeira/30/$20 mil
Chien Ming Wang/30/$5+ mil
AJ Burnett/33/$16.5 mil
Damaso Marte/35/$4 mil
Total $142.35 mil on 9 players, 5 of whom will likely be well into their decline phase, if not totally finished as elite players deserving of their pay scale. Its also worth noting that CC Sabathia and his 23 mil doesn’t make the list, since he’s 29 next year. Add CC and the total goes to 165 mil on 10 players. That leaves you too little payroll flexibility to account for automatic pay raises built into contracts like Cano (6-9 mil) and Swisher (5-6.5) and arbitration raises the young players will certainly receive. I’m sorry, but even the Yanks have their limits.
The good news however, is that much of the old, dead weight on the payroll expires after 2010. Just below 70 mil in payroll comes off the books, although I think its safe to say Jeter will be brought back at some price. But that just means that now you’re looking for a Hughes, Chamberlain or Montero to replace some of those aging players who are coming off the books, and chances are you just traded them away in the Halladay deal. The Yanks could, of course, use some of that payroll flexibility to sign free agents to fill their needs. Looking at the 2011 free agent class, there are some interesting names, but its not one of the better years to be out shopping.
Considering everything, I think the Yanks will be serious players. How much of a premium Riccardi wants to deal him within the division will determine whether we get him or not. I’d bet against it happening, but Cash will make a serious run at him.
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What scares me is not 2010 or 2011, but the fact that Halladay will want/demand a contract extension in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause. And if the Yankees are paying him big money at ages 35-38, while also paying a fortune for a declining A-Rod and for a late-peak or past-peak C.C., A.J., and Tex, well, that is really going to cramp the roster. Further, if by some chance Halladay instead decides to pursue free agency, you may pay a king’s ransom in prospects for 1.5 years of a player’s service. Great as he is, that is a high price.
So, adding it up, I would be inclined to pursue a deal if the Yankees can retain Montero and either Hughes or Chamberlain and if Halladay will agree to an extension of not more than two years. I regard it as unlikely that both of those conditions can be satisfied.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 6:54 pm
He has already said he’s not looking for an extension, he wants to make sure he likes where he’s playing before committing long term. So he’s one of the few players in Baseball for whom its not all about the money.
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If Cashman didn’t trade for Santana, I seriously doubt he’s going to trade for Halliday. I’d bet on the Phillies.
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Out of interest, who’s the dead weight for 2010? Jeter and Mo ? Harsh… Matsui and Damon are both off in 09 aren’t they ? The rest that actually expire in 2010 are relatively small (Molina…) ?
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Chip Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 11:41 am
Molina’s expires after this season after which we’ll probably see Cervelli back.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
I was thinking Marte, Posada, and (chances are at 40) Mo.
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Coming of after this year:
Matsui 13 mil
Damon 13 mil
Nady 6.5 mil
Pettitte 5mil (prob 10-12 when factoring incentives)
That’s in the ballpark of 40 mil. For 2010 we should not be stapped but I think arb will get expensive going further out.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
You’re looking at this wrong. Total the contracts ON the books, not just the ones coming off.
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So looking at the payroll, it appears that we’d have the room to put Halladay payroll-wise. Next season we might add an outfielder but I doubt it will be a huge contract sort of deal. In fact, I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see Damon back on a two year deal and running out an outfield of Damon/Gardner/Swisher for the time being and probably paying him 10 million a year at most. On top of that, I doubt anyone will get a significant arbitration raise as the only starters in arbitration are Wang and Melky. Looking at that we’ll probably be at 180 million for next season with arbitration and such before adding Halladay.
Also, Halladay has been quoted I believe as saying he doesn’t want an extention if traded. Smart move by him as he could be in for a huge payday in a couple of years. Still, you won’t be able to replace the major piece that we’d be giving up for him so I’m sure they won’t do it.
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With Posada here 2 more years and so many catching prospects in the minors with projectable talent, Cervelli could be put in a deal, along with AJax and a few of the better minor league pitchers and Yankees could be real players.
Obviously Joba could be let go also, i doubt he’s ever #1 material now that we’ve seen him extensively.
Giving away top, top players for the right to overpay him in free agency isn’t worth it to most teams.
The asking price will come down if they truly want to unload him.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Yes, I agree. Looking at the potential deal the Phillies could make, they have 2 nice players in AA and an OF in A-Ball that BA thinks highly of. The Yanks could beat that no problem without giving up Montero or Chamerlain.
Anyone who tells you “The deal starts with Phil Hughes” is blowing smoke up your ass. You just have to beat the Philly deal, and add a little extra for dealing in the division. A-Jax, McCallister, Romine and IPK is a competitive bid to what the Phils could offer. If that’s not enough, you pass.
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BG90027 Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
I think what you’re dismissing too easily is that the Blue Jays don’t have to trade Halladay. You don’t just have to beat the next best offer, you have to offer a package enticing enough to convince the Blue Jays to deal him. I don’t that that A-Jax can be the best player in the deal to get a deal done. For that reason, I’d guess its less than 50/50 that Halladay will get dealt. If that is enough, I’d do that deal in a heartbeat. I’d even consider doing a deal with Hughes, Montero or Chamberlain involved. The quality and quantity of other prospects would have to be less in that event.
I’ve also never really understood the idea of not trading within division. If I were a GM, I’d make a deal with whatever team made the best offer. If you turn down the best package, and the team in your division trades the same prospects for another great player from another division or keeps them and they become stars, how have you improved your competitive position by taking a lesser package of players? I’m not saying it doesn’t happen but it seems more about avoiding risk than doing what’s best for the club.
My gut says he doesn’t get traded but the Yankees would be smart to seriously explore a trade. I’m surprised the Rays don’t ever get at least mentioned as a possibility. I know that they’ve never made that big an acquisition before and I don’t know if they have any ability to add that much to the payroll, but their farm system is loaded and Halladay or that kind of real stopper at the front of the rotation is exactly what they need to elevate themselves to competite against NY and Boston.
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Craig Reply:
July 11th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
First of all, since when does 29 career starts qualify as “extensive” experience? Asinine.
Second of all, do you realize how ferocious Montero could end up being? Obviously, there is risk and uncertainty with prospects, but that was also the case with Justin Upton, Hanley Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, Albert Pujols, etc. The kid is 19 years old, already devoured High-A and is now a AA All-Star (due to injury, but still impressive) and will be playing – probably starting – in the Futures Game. Oh yeah, and he plays catcher. I’m not including him in anything unless I get a top 10 position player in return.
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I don’t think that the Yankees will end up trading for Halladay, but I think they must have serious interest. I don’t think that it would be smart for them to drive up the price for him, because that would only benefit the Jays. In the end, I think that Cashman will balk at the price for Halladay and pull out of the race, but I think that they definitely do have interest or else they would state that they do not have interest.
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You have a nice blog, but I think you’re way ahead of yourselves on this one. Toronto has no interest in trading Halladay within the division, and it would be stupid of them to do so. They believe (rightly or wrongly) that they can start to make a run at the division within the next 1-3 years, part of the reason they want ML-ready players. They have a decent core they can build around. So why trade their best pitcher to one of their chief competitors? Same goes for trading him to the Red Sox. It would be counterproductive and totally defeat the purpose of the exercise.
There are so few matches around the league that will be able to satisfy what Toronto wants, my guess is they don’t trade him.
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PC Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Toronto has traded good players within their division, Roger Clemens is an example.
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Mark Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Not sure how that applies to the Halladay situation. That was a different GM and a different situation. Besides, I didn’t say the Blue Jays NEVER trade players within their own division, I said they don’t want to do it NOW because that would be foolish.
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vento di rottura nel vostro fronte Rido del vostro disonore un’indennità di puzzo così gli farà perdere i sensi io cammina via senza segno.
Posso rompermi nel vostro fronte? O merda nel vostro cappello? Posso eruttare ad alta voce dentro al vostro orecchio in mezzo del colloquio di questo e di quello?
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Tego Calderón Naki Naki Nuevo y Diferente
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I say that we do whatever we can to pull off a Halladay trade. All of the older players you listed are still having above average or good seasons with the exception of Chien Ming Wang and Damaso Marte, because of injury. Since they are all doing good now, the yanks are a World Series caliber team, and adding Halladay would only help. Plus, after this year we shed two huge contracts in Damon and Matsui and two big contracts in Nady and Pettitte. We could then reach down to our minor league system and take Austin Jackson if we need an outfielder, Shelley Duncan for a DH, and put Hughes or Mitre (depending on his 2010 option) in the rotation to replace Pettitte. Therefore we should not need to sign anyone for big money and can easily afford Halladay in 2010.
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But because the Yankees are ridding themselves of so much money after this year, even with Halladay we can still actually afford to sign a big name such as Bay or Holliday and remain with about the same payroll.
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Matsui/$13 mil
Damon/$13 mil
Nady/$6 mil
Pettitte/$5 mil
All equal $37 mil
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Bay or Holliday/$15 mil (60 mil/4 or 70 mil/5)
Halladay/$15.75 mil
All equal $30.75
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What I really hope is that the Rays decline Crawford’s option and we can pick him up instead of Bay or Holliday.
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Brian Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
Messed up before…..if the Yankees get Halladay they don’t need Hughes or Mitre to replace Pettitte in 2010
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DaveinMD Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
Sure they would. Because they’d likely lose Joba in the deal.
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The Yankees should not trade away Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson and other top prospects to land Roy Halladay. The plan of having a strong minor leauge system has worked for the Yanks greatly this year! They decided to keep Melky and Hughes in the Santana deal and ended up with another left handed Ace anyways without having to trade away talent. Guys like Pena and Cervelli have been great for the team as well. The Yankees should zero in on Braves left handed set up man Mike Gonzalez and also look at the market for another low risk option in the starting rotation. The first option would be to look into a Paul Byrd type option. Aaron Harang would be more expensive prospect and dollars wise.
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BG90027 Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
It worked out well that they got CC. It was a big gamble though. Imagine if CC had been serious about wanting to play on the west coast and they hadn’t signed him. Its elite pitching that wins championship and guys like Santana, CC and Halladay don’t grow on trees. When you have an opportunity to add one of them, you have to seriously consider it.
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Halladay is a huge gamble going forward. He is entering his decline years very soon. Save the money and go after King Felix in two years. That’s a guy you open the fault for.
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1. Somebody with the best package is going to get him.
2. Obviously the Jays would prefer that somebody not be in their division.
3. But that preference goes away if the somebody has the best package.
4. Can the Yankees put together the best package? [Yes]
5. Will the best package harm their farm system? [Not necessarily]
6. Can they afford to let the Sawks get him? No (particularly this year).
7. Will the Sawks try? Yes
8. Why will the Sawks fail? Too cheap; overvalue their crappy players.
9. Why will the Phils Phail? Not enough talent; not enough money.
10. Who will give Halladay what he wants? The Yankees.
So Halladay becomes a Yankee.
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DaveinMD Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Do you give up Joba and Montero to get him. Because that is what it would take. I say hell no. I’d rather lose this year than mortgage our entire future.
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cano,coke,montero,mcalister
these are all replaceable players to at least some extent… pena plays second..bring up mark malanceon…we did jus sign gary sanchez and the emergence of cervellie….please guys before you say no to cano/postion player for doc/pitcher rember that us having doc makes us a world series fav. with out him we could be the sceond best team in the east
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DaveinMD Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 9:27 pm
Montero is not a replaceable player. He’s probably our best hitting prospect since Mantle. He’s certainly our best prospect since Jeter. Sanchez isn’t even starting at GCL until next year. Montero is no the cusp of being here next year. And Cervelli is a backup. Nothing more.
Pena is not a replacement for Cano. He doesn’t hit anywhere near as well as him. You’ll lose a ton of production.
I like Melancon and Coke. But that’s not what’s keeping me from making the deal. Halladay is 32 years old. He’s entering his likely decline years. Giving up the farm for him is stupid.
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The Yanks making a deal for Halliday is certainly an intriguing one .To say a pitcher is in his declining years at the ripe old age of 32 is speculative at best ,no reason to assume Halliday couldn’t continue being an effective pitcher for another 5-6 yrs.
Yanks untouchables:
Montero
Jackson
Hughes
although it is rumored Toronto might be willing to deal Rios to cut payroll ,so a package for Halliday and Rios is possible ,having said that a deal including Jackson ,Joba and Romine with maybe a top pitching prospect could seal the deal for the 2 .Rios would give them an above average RF so they wouldn’t have to shop for a FA for 2010 and of course Halliday would give them the best RH starter in baseball teamed with C.C.,A.J.,A.P. the best starting staff …
Toronto is not at all interested in Cano with Aaron Hill already at 2B.Trading Coke is absurd given how hard Girardi has worked to stabilize a shakey bullpen besides Toronto is loaded with lefty relievers.
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look. Halladay makes you better, period. He is better than Joba, he is better than Pettite, and he is better than Wang. He will make AJ better, he will make Joba better. He can help you win this year and next year, etc. And you don’t want to give up prospects for him? I understand, you don’t give up Joba or Hughes. But I would send Jackson and Duncan for him in a heart beat and if you wouldn’t you need your head examined. The season is now. Not 5 years from now, NOW. You have to want to win now. and Halladay gives you that chance. Its your own fault for signing guys (AROD) to long stupid deals. Who wants a 41 year old ARod who can barely play a good 3rd base now. This team will end up being old and over paid soon enough, so why not go for it all now and do something to push yourself for this year. Make the trade.
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mph2373 Reply:
July 15th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Of course! Jackson and Duncan (? really?), and who else? If it was wrong to sign bad deals, it’s smart to continue that trend? I understand where you are coming from. The Yanks did this to themselves with this win or fail attitude.
Seriously look at what Boston has done. Forget Tampa. They sucked for over a decade and were able to draft top talent. We keep giving up position players for pitchers, when all we seem to really draft are pitchers.
Jackson may still K too much, but he’s listed as the best athlete in our system. Why not hold on to him?
Plus, if Doc doesn’t want to sign an extension now, you’re getting 1.5 years for Joba/Hughes, AJax, Montero, etc?
Yet we didn’t trade for Santana? A lefty who is also arguably one of the best in the game? I just don’t see this happening. Boston won’t get him because they won’t trade their prospects for 1.5 years of service. They also won’t want to pay Doc $25 million over the 5 year extension he will ultimately want.
Seriously, everyone take a break until Friday. Relax and let’s recharge for the second half.
Also, trade Cano? Replace him with Pena? Really?
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