Punisher: War Zone hd Here’s Andy Pettitte on his latest outing (via Jake Thomases):
“I felt like I might have started the game with the best stuff I’ve had all year as far as my command, and I just felt great,” he said. “Then you look up there at the end of the day and I’ve got five walks and that’s just, that’s not going to work.”
This year, Andy Pettitte has walked 42 batters over 103 1/3 innings pitched. In 2008, after tossing 204 innings, Andy had walked only 55. On the season, Pettitte’s BB/9—it’s 3.70—is the highest it has been since 1999 when he walked 4.20 batters per nine (that year he had 89 BB). In addition, his K/9 sits at 6.00 while it was an even 7.00 in 2008 (the 6.00 K/9 is the 4th lowest of Andy’s career). Because of the increase in walks and the decrease in strike outs, Andy’s K/BB—a telling stat in terms of a pitcher’s overall effectiveness—is a miserable 1.64 (the higher the better). To be perfectly honest and accurate, Andy Pettitte is having a pretty poor season, a notion captured by his equally miserable ERA (4.53), WHIP (1.51) and FIP (4.77). It could honestly get worse, too, as his strand rate (72.5% LOB) is a tick higher than it normally (71.4% LOB) is while his BABIP is slightly lower than his career number (.310 versus .316).
So, what are we to make of these figures and why, exactly, has Andy Pettitte hit the skids in 2009?
Night Skies trailer Well, I think we can look to his buddy and partner in crime, Jorge Posada, in order to better understand the situation. In 2003, which was Andy’s final year with the Yankees before venturing out to Houston, Jorge caught 30 of his starts. In those 30 starts, the opposition batted .275/.317/.401 against Andy (their numbers were even better in 2002). He struck out 165 and walked 47 with Posada (that’s a 3.51 K/BB ratio). In 2007, when Andy returned to the Bronx, Jorge Posada caught 33 of his games (just like the old days). Against the reunited duo hitters batted .286/.338/.418 and Pettitte’s K/BB ratio was 2.06 (worse than 2003). He struck out 134 while walking 65 when pitching to Posada. Needless to say, the years prior to Andy’s departure—as seen in 2003—were better in terms of how well batters fared against Jorge and Andy—there were more walks—although 2007 was still a very respectable year for the two. Obviously, Pettitte had aged, he had battled injuries, and had spent 4 years in the NL, therefore, one could understand the decrease in effectiveness between the old couple. However, after 2007 things began to snowball.
The Yarn Princess trailer Though 2008 was an injury-shortened year for Jorge, in the 8 games that featured he and Andy, opponents hit .317/.382/.517. Together, Andy was able to strike out a total of 34 batters while walking 17, which makes for a 2.00 K/BB ratio. Essentially, the duo wasn’t very effective and once Jorge succumbed to injury, Chad Moeller and Jose Molina, in particular, took over. Moeller worked well with Pettitte, however, Jose became the starter and ended up catching 18 of Andy’s games. The new pair were much better at restricting offensive outbursts, as batters hit .273/.317/.385 when Molina was calling games. In those 18 games, Pettitte managed to strike out 89 and walk 29 (a 3.07 K/BB ratio). It seems as though Molina figured out catching Pettitte in a way that Jorge did not last season (or in 2007). And, while Pettitte’s 4.54 ERA may give some pause, his 3.71 FIP means that he was, indeed, helped by Molina and hurt by his defense.
Mildred Pierce dvd In 2009, with Molina out, Pettitte and Molina only operated together for 2 games, yielding a .261/.292/.587 line. The slugging percentage is highly uncharacteristic of the their prior work, but together they kept Andy’s K/BB ratio (8/2) reasonable albeit over a very limited period of time. With Jorge catching, Andy’s line is fairly “solid,” with batters hitting .278/.356/.390. However, the biggest problem is that with Jorge behind the dish, Pettitte walks too many people and strikes out too few. His K/BB is 1.56 as Andy has walked 32 while striking out 50. That is the main issue. With Molina, Andy’s career K/BB is 3.06. That signals more dominance and a better understanding for one’s pitcher than we’ve seen as of late with Posada and Pettitte. It’s a strange development when you consider how good Andy and Jorge were before Andy’s stint with the Astros.
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One could attempt to explain this unraveling via Pettitte’s pitching style, though. Prior to 2004, Andy’s first year with Houston, Andy pitched using a lot more fastballs. Once he joined the Astros, he began to pitch differently, throwing fewer fastballs and more junk, as his fastball had been hampered by injuries. However, when he rejoined the Yankees—the year Jorge caught him—his fastball was where it had normally been in his career (around 88-90 or so), leading to a solid season with Jorge calling games. But, since 2007 he has lost about a single mph on his fastball (from an average of 89.1 in 2007 to 88.5 in 2008 and 88.6 in 2009). In 2008, when he lost that mph, Jose was catching him—Jorge and Andy were terrible together—and called for fewer straight fastballs, fewer changeups and more cutters. He seemed to realize that Andy had lost some velocity and therefore adopted new strategies to counter the lack of zip. In 2009, though, Jorge, not Jose, is back to catching Andy and is thinking of the 2007 version with the solid fastball (he didn’t figure out Pettitte in 2008 and he hasn’t totally figured him out in 2009). The cutter that helped Andy in 2008—about 30% of his pitches were cutters—has been swapped out for more fastballs, curveballs and changeups.
In the end, you can bet that Andy Pettitte will welcome Jose Molina with open arms once he returns from the DL (which should be today). Clearly, Pettitte has been hurt the most by his absence. Expect Molina to start catching him upon his return and with that change, expect Pettitte’s walk rate to go down while his strike out rate goes up (he’ll become a better pitcher).
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Great work, but I don’t see it- the sample is too small. We are talking a normal age related decline in 07, and then a handful of poor starts between 08 and 09. I think the more constructive split here is Andy’s home-road split, to be honest. Also, Andy has been about league average, and has been ace-like on the road. He is not, by any stretch, having an awful year. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 11:01 am
I definitely agree that the sample is too small although I think it is indicative of something. Chris H.(Quote)
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Or………..Pettite is old and really not good anymore/scared of the big (small?) bad new stadium. Like Moshe said, there’s a horrible sample size issue here. It’s not like the Molina/Pettite combo comes up with a game play all by themselves, they have the advice of the pitching coaches and advanced scouts. I doubt Jorge doesn’t realize that Pettite can’t throw many cutters, I think it’s just a fact that he keeps missing his spots. With the fastball he has, he can’t miss too often. Chip(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 11:42 am
I don’t think it’s that he doesn’t realize “can’t throw cutters,” I believe he’s just not calling nearly as many as Molina did last year. A big thing for Andy’s 2008 was that he killed left-handed hitting, which can be attributed to his use of the cutter. He hadn’t been that good against lefties since 2005. I think it would help him a lot if he went with that pitch more often in 2009. Chris H.(Quote)
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Just stop. Blaming Posada whenever a pitcher doesn’t pitch well is nonsense. Fact is he doesn’t have the stuff to get guys out anymore so he just nibbles and nibbles. DaveinMD(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 11:35 am
I rarely ever blame Posada for his work with pitchers though in this case, I think you can say that the two aren’t as good a duo as they have been in the past. I think we’ll have to wait and see if Molina catches Pettitte upon his return. If his walks go down after that, then we’ll see if it’s a product of catching or pitching. Chris H.(Quote)
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DaveinMD Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Pitcher performance based on the catcher is the most overrated thing in baseball. This is especially true for veteran pitchers. Pettitte calls his own game. Him missing his pitches is on him and only him. Posada was out most of last year and Pettitte couldn’t do a thing in the second half last year. Who’s to blame for that. Pettitte is just old. He isn’t very good anymore. That’s not on Posada. DaveinMD(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
I don’t know. For the Yankees and with Posada it seems to be an issue.
http://www.courant.com/sports/red-sox-yankees/hc-catchers616.artjun16,0,6427453.story Chris H.(Quote)
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DaveinMD Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Its a manufactured issue. Posada’s game calling was good enough to win world series and several pennants. DaveinMD(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Agreed. I’m willing to bet that by the end of the year, if you take out starts by CMW from the beginning of the year, the numbers with and without Jorge will be very similar. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Oh come on, lol. I don’t understand why people discount the importance of pitcher performance based on the catcher. Did everyone forget about Mike Mussina’s remarkable 2008 (and his miserable 2007)? All of the Yankee starters rave about Molina’s game-calling ability—why would they do that if it was meaningless—yet it’s a nonfactor to some fans. I don’t get that. Chris H.(Quote)
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DaveinMD Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
People discount it because its utter nonsense. Tell why Pettitte struggled so much last year without Posada in the big stadium? This Posada bashing is nonsense. Catchers have very little effect on ERA. There was a post on this very site a while back documenting that Posada’s CERA was not different at all from the other catchers over time. DaveinMD(Quote)
Moshe Mandel Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Yeah, I wrote that post. Furthermore, CERA doesn’t really help you, it is a really flawed stat. Listen, Posada has a strong personality and wants to call a game his way, which may bother some pitchers. That does not mean that he does not call a good game. The results suggest that his game calling is fine. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
It was a great post. I’ve linked it on several other sites. DaveinMD(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Thanks, man. Spread the word!! Viva la The Yankee Universe!!!!! Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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I think there is something to be said for Pettitte being extra-cautious in the new homer-happy stadium, which could lead him to nibble more and walk more batters as opposed to laying a fastball in there when behind in the count. Eric Schultz(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
I did read that the new Stadium has gotten to him a bit (he himself said as much). He might just be overly cautious at home, as you said Eric. Chris H.(Quote)
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There are a variety of ways in which a catcher can influence a pitcher’s ERA. For instance, when a runner is thrown out after getting on base, that is a potential run scored removed. When a catcher has a good arm and his mere presence hinders a baserunner from getting into scoring position, that’s an indirect influence. These are more explicit examples, although game calling is much more subtle. Now, you need to relax in your characterization of this piece. I don’t think I’ve ever “Jorge bashed,” and simply wrote that the two aren’t working together as well as they have in recent years—specifically with Pettitte’s walks. The stats indicate that, in fact. Chris H.(Quote)
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DaveinMD Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
What do the stats indicate from last year? I’d say they indicate that Pettitte is in a major decline no matter who is catching him. So no, I’m not going to relax. This post is utter nonsense. DaveinMD(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Actually that’s inaccurate unless you’re going by his ERA. According to his FIP and other figures (K/9, K/BB, etc.), Pettitte had a very solid year and was hurt by bad defense and bad luck (BABIP) during his 2008 season. Anthony wrote about it on this very site back in January (it was a good piece, too), as he outlined why Pettitte should be resigned. Your argument is flawed.
http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/?p=65
This year, the Yankees have a better defense (although Johnny Damon is weak in LF) and Andy’s BABIP is actually slightly lower than it normally is, however, he has regressed tremendously. His fastball is essentially the same—the only major difference I’ve noted is Jorge Posada is catching him (and Yankee Stadium, of course). Chris H.(Quote)
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DaveinMD Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
And what about the fact that Posada’s CERA over time shows very little difference from other catchers. This is a point you still haven’t addressed.
Were Andy’s numbers consistent throughout? That’s not in that post. Andy was pretty bad in the last couple of months. I’d bet that it wasn’t just bad luck that caused his major decline in August. DaveinMD(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Injury also slowed him towards the end of last season rather than age or simple ineffectiveness.
In terms of CERA, I don’t think the stat is indicative of too much, actually, as it’s not the most nuanced stat there is although I think Moshe made a good point with his post (he too even said it was flawed a few comments earlier). Further, I’ve never said that Jorge is a bad game-caller. I’ve said that he hasn’t been very effective with Andy this year and its an issue that began in 2007. That’s not me saying he’s not an adequate defensive catcher, though, which is your interpretation. For instance, we’ve all seen Jorge have rough moments when catching Joba but that I would blame more on Joba than on Jorge. Chris H.(Quote)
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DaveinMD Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 7:17 pm
Or maybe, Andy has just been coincidentally not as effective in those starts. Have more of those starts happened at home where Andy is just afraid to throw strikes? Saying that Posada is less effective is really just silly. The pitcher pitches. DaveinMD(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
He’s walked too many people everywhere, home or away (his K/BB on the road is barely higher than his K/BB at home). Chris H.(Quote)