Jon Heyman recently posted his award winners at the midway point of the season. His AL ROY list was as follows:
1. Ricky Romero, Blue Jays.
2. Elvis Andrus, Rangers.
3. Andrew Bailey, A’s.
4. Rick Porcello, Tigers.
5. Nolan Reimold, Orioles.
Tom Verducci did the same:
1) Ricky Romero, Blue Jays.
2) Rick Porcello, Tigers.
3) Brad Bergesen, Orioles.
Considering that Brett Gardner has a higher WAR than all of the named players, I would say that he is a notable omission from these lists. Gardner is having a very good season with the bat, and has been a revelation with the glove. Even his arm, which is not too great, recently got some good press on Fangraphs:
Gardner has racked up an incredible +8.4 ARM rating since showing up in the majors last year, and he’s done it in half a season’s worth of playing time. He has 83 “defensive games” as a major league outfielder, meaning that he’s had just over 1/2 of a season’s worth of balls hit to him to turn into outs. The four guys ahead of him are all at 200+ defensive games during this same time span.
This is a ridiculous performance, honestly. Over a full season, Gardner’s +17 pace would easily be double that of the 2008 ARM leader (Pence). He’s been worth almost a win to the Yankees (in half a season!) just by chucking the ball back in from the outfield…….
If Gardner really does have one of the best throwing arms in baseball, then there’s really no way that New York can justify keeping him out of the starting line-up on a regular basis. He’s already one of the best base stealers in the game (30 for 33), and his +10.6 range runs 600 innings as a major league center fielder suggest he might be an elite defensive player even without the crazy throwing. If the Yankees can really expect +5 to +10 runs per year from Gardner’s arm, in addition to above average range, and crazy good base stealing efficiency, then he’s worth an everyday line-up spot even with his .698 OPS in the majors.
In fact, when you look at the total body of work that Gardner has put together since showing up in New York, he’s racked up +3.3 wins above replacement in 342 plate appearances. Even with heavy regression, Gardner looks to be good enough to play everyday.
Now, I know that the ARM rating probably has something to do with a small sample and is also boosted by teams continually taking chances on his arm, but it certainly suggests that Brett’s throwing is not the liability that it seems to be. Combine that with his excellent range, and you have a great defensive player.
Don’t Say a Word download In regard to offense, Gardner is having a very good rookie year, ranking near the top of the AL among rookies with at least 75 plate appearances in many offensive categories:
BA .287 1st
OBP .360 1st
SLG .416 5th (!)
OPS .776 3rd
Runs 36 1st
Hits 51 3rd
RBI 17 4th
SB 18 1st
BB 20 1st
He is also not striking out as much as he did last season, with only 25 K’s in 178 AB’s. The conclusion is unavoidable: Brett Gardner has been one of the most valuable rookies in the AL this season, with a case for being the most valuable. He should get serious consideration for the Rookie of the Year award.
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The problem is that most of the guys on Heyman’s and Verducci’s list were high profile prospects from the time that they were drafted. You expect them to do well, so when their level of achievement is reasonable, they are automatically on the ROY list. Gardner has had to fight for recognition for everything he has done from the time he was a walk on for the team in college. Steve(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Definitely, Steve. Heyman’s list is strange because if you Elvis Andrus on there—and he’s a guy I like—you have to have Gardner on there, too. Chris H.(Quote)
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The problem is that Gardner needs to garner more at bats. Even though he is top 5 in all the offensive categories, I think people want to see him do it while getting more playing time. Right now he should get consideration for ROY but more people will notice as the season progresses. Mark Da Rosa(Quote)
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Steve S. Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
That’s exactly it. Gardner’s numbers are downplayed because he’s not as full time player, and they should be. Comparing a player that has to face Righties and Lefties to another who gets most of his ABs as a lefty hitter facing righties isnt fair to the everyday player. Steve S.(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
He is third among AL Rookies in at-bats, so it is not like he is being used much more judiciously than the others. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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He actually hits with RISP, too. Chris H.(Quote)
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If Brett wouldn’t take so many perfect pitches right down the middle and then swing at balls in the dirt with 2 strikes he’d be batting .320
They know he’s looking for a walk and on 0-1 or even 0-0, he needs to make them pay for the fastball right down the pipe that they know he isn’t swinging at.
Sure you look for a walk with that speed but you can’t be 0-2 half the time, unless you’re Nick Swisher, with a great eye and even he only hits .240-250. Leftylarry(Quote)
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Don’t know how he could be ignored when he leads in 5 of the top 9 offensive categories, is playing on a winning team, and has solid defensive skills. misterd(Quote)
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Moshe have you finally given up on Sour Melk? I sure hope Gardner gets to play everyday from now no. scott l(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
They should trade Melky to the White Sox for the lefty Matt Thornton. Move him for something… Chris H.(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
No, I have not given up on Melky, who has been above league average in CF. Why would I give up on that? I certainly believe Melky is more valuable to the Yankees than another bullpen guy. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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Lmao, Melky sucks so it’s time to give up! Just look at his Ops by the month if it continues at this pace he’ll be back in A ball! scott l(Quote)
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Jacoby Ellsbury doesn’t think so. j(Quote)
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