IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, YANKEEANALYSTS.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.

Yanks discussing Arroyo with the Reds

Posted by Chris H. at 6:14 pm 8 Responses »
Jul 272009

From Jeff Fletcher of AOL Fanhouse:

The Yankees are in serious discussions with the Reds about acquiring Bronson Arroyo, although right now the deal may be hinging on how much of Arroyo’s remaining contract the Reds are willing to eat, major league sources told FanHouse on Monday. “It will get done,” one source said.

I think this would be a terrible trade for the Yankees. Arroyo has been bad on the road and at home for the Reds. However, before condemning, let me try and understand the Yankees’ thinking for a moment. Over the past 3 seasons in particular, Arroyo has become a second-half performer. His post-AS splits include a 3.90 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and a .254 BAA. Last season, he posted a 5.97 ERA prior to the All-Star break, and then put together a 3.47 ERA after the All-Star break. The Yankees are probably interested in those numbers. Let’s hope that, if Cashman does trade for Arroyo, his splits will translate to his old home, the AL East.

UPDATE - If Fletcher’s report is accurate, it would contradict Tyler Kepner’s writeup from earlier today, in which he noted that the Yankees “have zero interest in Bronson Arroyo of Cincinnati.”

UPDATE - According to FOX Sports, Arroyo’s start on Tuesday has been scratched due to ongoing trade talks. However, Mark Sheldon (MLB) claims that he’s still starting.

UPDATE - According to Ed Price, the Yankees have 2 scouts in Cincinnati and Arroyo is expected to start tomorrow. Still, the scouting presence in Cincy indicates that something is brewing, to paraphrase Price. I’d like to see the Yankees acquire Aaron Harang instead of Arroyo. Maybe we’ll hear more after tomorrow.

UPDATE - Is Hal Steinbrenner’s presence being felt? The Yankees seem to want the Reds to take on more of Arroyo’s contract. Others—like Tyler Kepner and Peter Abraham—are reporting that there’s no chance the Yankees go for Arroyo.

(props to MLBTR)

Tagged with: , , , ,

Discussion: In Appreciation Of Cashman

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:49 pm No Responses »
Jul 272009

Brian Cashman has a reputation for being notoriously reticent when dealing with the media. He often sidesteps questions or bluntly gives a ”no comment” when asked about sensitive issues. While this may seem annoying to some, the alternative leads to the debacle we saw in Queens this afternoon. Omar Minaya’s loose lips made the Tony Bernazard situation worse, and may have cost him his own job. It is hard to imagine Brian Cashman committing a similar gaffe, and for that, I tip my cap to Brian. No matter what you think of his player procurement abilities, he always represents the Yankees with class and dignity. Kudos to Cash.

Tagged with:

Heyman on Halladay and the Yankees

Posted by Chris H. at 4:00 pm 8 Responses »
Jul 272009

From Jon Heyman (SI):

The Yankees believe their chances are practically nil after hearing from Toronto that it would take both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes plus two more top prospects for Halladay. Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi wasn’t kidding when he told the Yankees up front it would take more from them and Boston than it would from other teams.

To have any shot at all at Halladay, the Yankees have to hope things fall through with Phillies, then consider whether to dangle one or the other, Chamberlain or Hughes. For Halladay, they might part with one (though not both).

One AL scout said he’d offer Chamberlain, but not Hughes. “I think Hughes is going to be good, but Joba I wonder about. He hasn’t learned his lesson from showboating yet. In fact, he’s gotten worse. He’s extremely talented, but I just wonder whether he’ll break down.”

While Chamberlain’s antics annoy some folks, he has put together two straight excellent starts.

This “let’s trade Joba and not Hughes” dynamic is very interesting (and does this scout actually think that the Yankees should trade Joba because he “showboats”?). About a year ago, when Joba was still a bullpen revelation and Hughes was a rotation flop, the exact opposite was being said. “Joba is untouchable, but Phil Hughes can get dealt,” many were saying. Unnamed scouts were claiming that Hughes would never be much of anything, citing his lack of velocity and lack of pitches. Yet, here he is today, dominating in the bullpen just as Joba did back in 2007-2008. Now (and suddenly), everyone wants to keep Hughes and move Joba. It’s funny how a year changes things. Anyway, I doubt the Yankees move either player for Halladay.

Heyman also mentions that the Yankees called the Mariners about Jarrod Washburn over the weekend and were told that the Mariners weren’t ready to sell. That could obviously change, however, very quickly.

(props to MLBTR)

Tagged with: , , ,

Derek Jeter For MVP

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 2:00 pm No Responses »
Jul 272009

Yankee Captain, World Series MVP, ASG MVP, Rookie of the Year. Derek Jeter has had a much lauded career, and certainly has never been lacking recognition. However, for all of his illustrious accomplishments and accolades, there is one award that he has yet to nab: American league MVP. He was close in 1998 and 1999, and had the award stolen from him by Justin Mourneau in 2006. However, 2009 may finally be his year, assuming that he maintains his stellar performance. Let us take a closer look at the numbers that support his case.

BA: .321 (5th in AL)
OBP: .398 (6th)
Runs: 63 (11th)
Hits: 123 (T-2nd)
BB: 46 (20th)

Power numbers are bound to be lower as a SS, so I thought it would be more instructive to compare him to other shortstops for those statistics.

SLG: .457 (2nd among AL SS)
2B: 19 (5th)
HR: 11 (T-1st)
RBI: 43 (4th- leader at 47) (remember, Derek is leading off)
UZR: 4.4 (3rd)

Jeter is third in AL WAR (Wins Above Replacement) behind Ben Zobrist and Joe Mauer, with Evan Longoria just behind him. Mauer, Jeter, and Longoria look to be the serious candidates, with each exceeding 19 million dollars in value thus far. I think Derek is likely to finish second, with Mauer finally winning the award that has eluded him for the last few seasons. However, if the Yankees make the postseason while the Rays and Twins are left at home, Jeter’s case will get stronger, as writers often like to reward players who helped lead their team to the playoffs. This is probably Derek Jeter’s last great chance at an MVP award. Hopefully the writers finally recognize his value.

Tagged with: ,

Our Knowledge Of Prospects

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 12:00 pm No Responses »
Jul 272009

From LA Observed:

So the other day I’m listening to 710 AM, and I hear Andrew Siciliano ask several times: “If Clayton Kershaw is untouchable, then who is touchable?” Siciliano genuinely didn’t know, and his partner Mychal Thompson couldn’t answer the question, probably because the only thoughts in head were “Kobe, Kobe, Kobe, Kobe, Kobe…”

Now, I normally like Andrew Siciliano. He does a terrific job hosting the Red Zone Channel on Sundays for DirecTV. And when he fills in for Jim Rome or when he did his old show for Fox Sports Radio, he usually constructs well-thought arguments that I respect, even if I disagree with them. I was pleased to learn recently that he would have a regular local show on KSPN 710 (even though it is with Thompson).

But I think Siciliano asked the question because he doesn’t really know who is good in the Dodgers farm system. In fact, I don’t think anyone in the LA media really knows which Dodger prospects are good, and who the team could legitimately give up for Roy Halladay.

Again, this baffles me. It would seem to me that if your profession is to cover the Los Angeles sports world on a daily basis, then you should have at least a passing knowledge of the Dodgers top prospects. I don’t expect local media types to be watching games in Albuquerque and Chattanooga. But I do expect smarter suggestions than Clayton Kershaw for Roy Halladay.

This caught my eye because it reminded me a lot of the local talk radio scene, where the number 1 host in the area knows Jesus Montero as “that catchuh in AA that everyone likes so much.” The fact that people who do not know anything about the #3 prospect in all of baseball are the ones informing the masses leads local fans to view prospects in a dismissive light. You will hear trade proposals from fans that empty a farm system because they really do not know much about the minor leaguers, and the hosts that they trust are not about to inform them.

The question, of course, is if this is a bad thing. Those of us that know all about the prospects quickly become attached to each one and their chances to prosper. We tend to overvalue them, and suddenly we are loathe to give up Austin Jackson or Austin Romine to improve the club. Considering that most prospects fail, maybe being less educated about them until they show up in the Bronx is not such a bad thing after all. While it is easy to say that a middle ground exists, it is in practice very difficult for a fan to identify that ground and stick to it.

What do you think? Does knowing a lot about prospects lead to overvaluation of those assets by the educated fan? Does it cloud our judgment of what might be a fair trade?

Tagged with: ,

Sabathia's dropoff?

Posted by Steve S. at 7:27 am 4 Responses »
Jul 272009

Tom Boorstien of SNY has a new piece up discussing how CC Sabathia has not been the pitcher he was before signing here. He writes:

The Yankees will probably never see Sabathia reprise his 2008 performance. He had career-bests in innings pitched, strikeouts, strikeouts per nine innings and ERA+. He also made 17 starts in the Pacific Coast League National League. Even if the competition there is identical to that in the American League—which it isn’t—Sabathia still got to face the pitcher multiple times a game.

So why is Sabathia performing more like a good No. 2 starter than a man deserving a $161 million contract? Look at his Three True Outcomes: strikeouts, walks and home runs. Sabathia is underperforming in strikeouts and walks, and his home run rate is dead even to last year.

The walks and strikeouts are the most disconcerting. Sabathia is walking 2.6 batters per nine innings (up from 2.1 and his highest since 2005) and only striking out 6.5 (down from 8.9 and his lowest since 2003). His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.51, a steep dropoff from the 4.25 he posted in 2008 and the 5.65 mark that led the league in 2007, his Cy Young season.

Sabathia’s 3.67 ERA isn’t killing the Yankees, but it’s neither unlucky nor in line with how good the lefty has been in the past. Sabathia’s fielding-independent ERA is an almost-identical 3.61. That stat, too, is his highest since 2005.

Steven Goldman of Pinstriped Bible chimes in as well, wondering if Yankee stadium has anything to do with this. One teensy weensy problem with all this Sabathia concern. It’s not an apples to apples comparison. We’re comparing his first half stats to career rates, and CC has always been a 2nd half pitcher. Check this out:

Post All-Star 2.40 21 13 0 0 44 44 11 326.1 296 108 87 19 59 295 .240
Pre All-Star 3.60 27 15 0 0 53 53 9 360.1 347 154 144 37 81 337 .254

Those are his 3 year splits from ESPN, so we’re not just looking at the AL/NL switch from 08. He improves in every area in the 2nd half, and his 3.60 ERA is almost identical to the 3.67 mark Boorstein finds disconcerting. His walk rates went from 2.025/9IP pre-All Star to 1.79/9IP post All Star in those seasons, so he’s only up by roughly 1/2 a walk per 9IP, and should improve in the 2nd half. His Strikeouts went from 8.43/9IP pre All Star to 8.97/9IP post All Star in those seasons, so the 6.5 rate he’s putting up so far this year is a significant dropoff. I’ll buy Goldman’s explanation for this, that it can simply be the adjustment of pitching in the new Yankee Stadium. I’ll presume that after the early season HR barrage in April and May, he’s likely throwing more 2-seamers to get more groundballs and keep the ball in the yard, as opposed to throwing 4 seamers that yield strikeouts. We’ve seen the Yanks admit to this with Joba Chamberlain, so it’s reasonable to assume other pitchers are doing the same. In any case, it doesn’t appear to be anything to worry about.

To be fair to Boorstein, he does mention the 1st half/2nd half splits as a possible explanation earlier in his piece and isn’t overly alarmed at CC’s season to date. But I’ve heard similar concerns from fans recently and wanted to address them. As long as he’s healthy, the best should be yet to come for Carsten Charles.

Tagged with:
© 2011 TYU Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha