Draft Eve Thoughts

With the draft just 18 hours away, the rumor mill is churning away, but there does not appear to be a consensus as to who the Yankees will take at #29, unlike in previous years when the Cole and Brackman picks (especially once Porcello went off the board) were pretty well predicted.  The Yankees have been believed to be interested in a number of guys at 29, including lefty high school fireballer Matt Purke (and his enormous bonus demands), toolsy Cal outfielder Brett Jackson, big HS righty Matt Hobgood, power-hitting high school catcher Tommy Joseph, athletic HS outfielder Slade Heathcott, and similarly athletic HS shortstop David Renfroe.

This list could be expanded to include guys who were never expected to be available at 29, including Indy leaguer Tanner Scheppers (there are still questions about his shoulder) and Missouri ace Kyle Gibson (stress fracture in his elbow).  Donavan Tate, a top-10 talent according to most evaluators, is expected to fall down the draft board, but the Yankees haven’t seemed to show much interest in him (at least at the reported 6 million dollar price).

One thing that should be considered is that the Yankees have reduced leverage on their first 2 picks, since they will not get a compensation pick if they fail to sign their 1st or 2nd rounder (which they got for not signing Cole and Bittle last year).  As a result, we might see the Yankees take a more signable player like Heathcott or Joseph, even with bigger names such as Purke and Gibson available.  This might be frustrating to watch, but the Yankees could easily take a flier on these guys if they last into the later rounds.

If I had to make a prediction for the 1st-round pick now, it would be between Heathcott and Renfroe, both high-ceiling high school players who are likely to be available at 29.  The Yankees have demonstrated interest in both of them, and both of them should be signable for a reasonable bonus, which would allow the Yankees to go after some overslot guys in later rounds.  Between the two, I will take Heathcott, since I think Renfroe (by virtue of his 2-3 million dollar demands) might be available in the 2nd, whereas I think the more signable Heathcott will be gone by the sandwich round.  If Renfroe lasts to the 2nd, I think he would be a likely pick, although it is possible that the Yankees might not want to spend their 2 top picks on high school 2-way players.  I would be fine with the Renfroe pick there, but wouldn’t mind seeing them take one of the fallers (Purke, Gibson, Scheppers) there.  If I were to make a draft board of the guys the Yankees are believed to be considering with the first-rounder, it would look like this:

1. Tanner Scheppers
2. Aaron Crow (really 1A)
3. Kyle Gibson (really 1B)
4. Matt Purke
5. Slade Heathcott
6. Matt Hobgood
7. David Renfroe
8. Tommy Joseph
9. Brett Jackson

Scheppers’ arm would be hard to turn down, and he shouldn’t be a major signability issue since he already spent a season in Indy ball, I imagine he probably wants to get to the bigs ASAP.  I would also love a Gibson pick if the Yankees are satisfied with his medicals.  Recent reports of Crow falling (Keith Law had him falling out of the first round recently) are also very exciting, as he is another consensus top-10 draft prospect, and the Yankees could potentially have a shot at some of the best non-Strasburg college arms.  I’m very excited about Purke as well, but his demands seem way out of proportion to his talent (he’s no Porcello, and he will not get Porcello money in this economy), and I doubt the Yankees will spend a first-rounder on him, unless they can work out a more reasonable 3-4 million dollar deal (which is still more than Purke is probably worth, IMO).  A request for a major league deal would be a deal-breaker as far as I’m concerned.

Tomorrow will be an interesting evening, and there will likely be a number of surprises.  I’m hoping that the Yankees are aggressive, and take the top talents available with their first two picks.  I will be liveblogging tomorrow night, and posting some analysis of the Yankee selections.  I will then discuss some other prospects the Yankees should consider on days 2 and 3 of the draft (can you believe they made it into a 3-day event?).  I’ll be getting home a little before 6, and will try to get the festivities started ASAP.

Related posts:

1. MLB Draft Day Liveblog Part 2, Supplemental and 2nd Rounds
2. Draft Morning Rumors, Courtesy of Nomaas
3. Day 1 Recap, and a look at Day 2
4. Kyle Gibson injured, could slide in draft
5. Draft Thoughts: Eying the 2nd Rounder