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Felix and the future

Posted by Chris H. at 5:30 pm 14 Responses »
Jun 302009

Here’s Buster Olney (ESPN) discussing Mariners’ ace, Felix Hernandez:

But so long as Hernandez remains healthy, he will continue to climb toward what figures to be a monster contract. He is still just 23 years old, and he is on track to become a free agent after the 2011 season. CC Sabathia Alexander dvdrip

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got a six-year, $161 million contract when he was 28 years old. Johan Santana got his record deal when he was 28 years old.

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Just imagine what the Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs might be willing to pay Hernandez, as a healthy, elite pitcher at age 25. The economy will have no impact on a 25-year-old who can throw two types of fastballs, his curve and changeup for strikes at any point in the ball-strike count, with conviction and dominance.

Guess who else will be a free agent after the 2011 season?

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That’s right, Chien-Ming Wang.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees let Wang go and replace him with King Felix. I mean, why pay for the lesser pitcher—which Wang is. You might as well get the best that’s on the market and unless a prospect like Andrew Brackman is ready by then, there isn’t a clear internal replacement for Wang, making Felix a legitimate target. It’s pretty amazing just how young he is, actually. I can certainly see the Sox and the Yankees engaging in a bidding war for his services once he is available.

Of course, such a bidding war could ultimately depend on where Joe Mauer signs, though, as he’ll be a FA at the end of 2010—unless the Twins are smart and grant him an extension—which could handcuff either team’s spending if they decide to go after him, instead (a definite possibility).

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Gene Michael: Yanks almost traded Mo for Wells in '95

Posted by Eric Schultz at 3:33 pm No Responses »
Jun 302009

John Harper of The Daily News writes that in 1995, then-GM Gene Michael (who gets a lot of credit for building the Yankee dynasty of the late 90′s), almost traded Rivera (then a minor league starter) for David Wells.  Rivera was not a highly-hyped prospect who was throwing in the low-90′s following elbow surgery.  The Tigers included Rivera on a list of players that they would want in exchange for Wells, but when Michael found out that Rivera began throwing 95-96, he didn’t pull the trigger.

Godzilla’s Revenge hd This very well might have been a franchise-altering move, since Mo was such an essential part of all the Yankee World Series teams from 96-2000, and continues to be a vital member of the Yankee roster today.  Wells, who later signed with the Yanks as a free agent in 1997, was traded for Roger Clemens in 1999, and returned to the Yanks again in 2003 as a free agent. He too was an important component of the championship teams, but did not come at the cost of a future Hall of Fame closer.

It is difficult to imagine what would have happened to the Yankees if Rivera was not in the picture.  The Yankees might have had somebody like Mike Stanton or Jeff  Nelson closing for them, or else they could have retained John Wetteland instead of letting him go after 1996.  Whatever they would have done, they almost certainly would not have been as successful as they were in the late 1990′s without the great Rivera.  Kudos to Stick Michael (who is still a Yankee scout) for sticking to his guns and not dealing the promising power arm for a starter that would later be signed as a free agent.  I am sure Francesa probably would have foamed at the mouth if the Yankees did not acquire a proven starter for a minor leaguer, but as this non-trade shows, Gene Michael knew what he was doing.

Prospect Profile: Ivan Nova

Posted by Eric Schultz at 2:36 pm No Responses »
Jun 302009

Age:  22

Height:  6’4″

Weight:  210 pounds

Throws: Right

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Current Team:  Scranton/Wilkes Barre Yankees (AAA)

Scouting Report:

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Nova, signed out of the Dominican Republic as a free agent in 2004, seems like he has been around the Yankee system forever.  A tall righty, Nova has always been considered to have some of the best pure stuff in the pitching-heavy Yankee system.  He has a low-90′s 4-seam fastball that reaches 94 with good movement that he uses to record many groundball outs.  He has an above-average changeup with plus potential, as well as a curveball that flashes plus at times.  Nova’s secondary offerings, while promising, have not developed into major strikeout pitches yet, and he tends to pitch more to contact.

Last Year: Nova had an up-and-down 2008 for Tampa, going 8-13 with a 4.36 ERA, and allowing over a hit per inning.  He struck out 109 against 46 walks in 148 2/3 innings, and posted a 1.60 GO/AO ratio.  At times he would pitch very well, but on other occasions he was too hittable.  His .353 BABIP was fairly high, which could indicate that he was somewhat unlucky, and could have benefitted from better defense behind him.

This Year: Road Trip Nova was taken by the Padres in the Rule V Draft.  San Diego tried him out in the bullpen in Spring Training, but Nova was not very successful, and did not make the major league team.  As a result, he was returned to the Yankee system.  Nova began the season in AA, and was very effective in his first 12 starts.  In 72 1/3 AA innings, Nova was 5-4 with a 2.36 ERA, and allowed 65 hits and 31 walks, while striking out 47.  The most impressive statistic was his GO/AO ratio, which was 2.47.  His strikeout rate was still not that impressive, but the increased groundball rate combined with a more normal BABIP against (.290), allowed Nova to succeed at the AA level.  This performance earned Nova a promotion to AAA, where he pitched 5 2/3 innings of 1-hit ball in his Scranton debut.  He will likely remain in AAA for the remainder of the season, but could be a September callup if all goes well.

Outlook: Nova is definitely a prospect on the rise, who finally seems to be improving his performance to match his impressive stuff.  He is very similar to Zach McAllister, as a guy who records a lot of groundaball outs and does not strike many batters out.  While he does not have McAllister’s control, Nova probably has a higher ceiling because his secondary offerings are stronger, and he gets more groundball outs than Zach does.  Nova probably has a #3 ceiling if his secondary offerings come together and his control improves, but at this juncture he allows too many baserunners without striking many guys out to be considered a frontline guy.  Nonetheless, he is another useful prospect to have in the starting mix, and could also be useful as trade bait.

The Cost Of Looking Good (Guess These Players!!)

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:30 pm No Responses »
Jun 302009
.!.

Let’s compare two players without revealing who they are until later, just so that I can surprise you with a point that surprised me. Both players are in their age 28 season and have been in the majors for 6 seasons. Player B’s first two seasons were better than Player A’s, but I am going to ignore that fact and look at the numbers for the last 4 seasons, including the current year.

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OPS+
Player A: 120, 122, 111, 95
Player B: 125, 127, 92, 127

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Player A: 142/65/283/311
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Player B: 98/95/281/317

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Player A: 157/358/77
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Player B: 329/479/7

Offensively, these two guys are very close. A closer look at the numbers suggests that Player B is the more valuable offensive player who had his numbers dragged down a bit by one poor year. As I mentioned above, if you include the first two seasons of their respective careers, it becomes clear that Player B has been the better hitter to this point. Defensively, Player B is rated by most metrics as an average fielder. Player A, on the other hand, is a gold glove caliber fielder. Due to the fairly close nature of their offensive output, this makes Player A the proper selection, but it is a very close call. However, one last comparison makes it clear that their value is perceived differently.

Salary:
Player A: In year 2 of a 7-year, 69.835 million dollar contract signed prior to the 2008 season, with a club option at 13.5 million for 2015.
Player B: In year 3 of a 5-year, 26.75 million dollar contract signed prior to the 2007 season, with a club option at 10.25 million for 2012.

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You may have already figured out that Player B is Nick Swisher. This comparison was spurred on by the following from Jeff Blair:

Anyhow, my sense is general manager J.P. Ricciardi’s all but at the bag of balls stage; that he’s decided any money saved in off-loading Rios or Wells is more important than what’s brought back in return, and that it would have been done by now had Travis Snider not been hurt. The Blue Jays are in danger of a serious revenue crunch that will impact their ability to do on-field business next year. Money’s not coming in, and Roy Halladay needs to be paid.

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Player A is Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Alexis Rios. I set out to do a column on pursuing Rios and was surprised when I glanced at his numbers. As I noted above, Rios’ superior defense makes him the selection when choosing between the two players, but it is much closer than I would have expected. When considering the contracts, it is clear that either Swish is undervalued, Rios is overvalued, or some combination of the two.

Broken Windows psp This brings me to the point of my article. The money being paid to Rios is the premium for a player who looks good on the field. Rios looks like the most talented player in the world out there on a regular basis, and is therefore held in much higher esteem than the awkward Swisher. Quite frankly, the disparity in their contracts in ridiculous, and suggests that there are still market inefficiencies for smart teams to exploit. If clubs can get past what looks good and properly identify who produces more, they can avoid falling for tools and start paying for results.

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Yanks Trade for Eric Hinske

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 11:53 am 8 Responses »
Jun 302009
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This news from Joel Sherman’s Twitter feed. The Yankees just acquired Eric Hinske from the Pirates for two minor leaguers who were termed by Sherman as being not “significant.” Hinske is a versatile 31 year-old who can put in time at 1b, 3b and OF.  Hinske’s current line sits at .255, .373, .368 which is pretty close to his career averages (a little higher slugging and lower OBP is the norm for him).  He’s a nice, versatile bench player to have on your roster.

With the addition of Hinske, the recent signing of the independent league all-star 3b, and the recent rest A-Rod has been given, you have to wonder if Cashman is a little nervous about A-Rod’s health, and is trying to find options for giving him time off. Sox’ 3b, Mike Lowell is still having trouble with his hip after a full year, and A-Rod had the same procedure only a few months ago. I wonder if all these things are connected. Looking at Lowell (an admittedly older, more injury-prone player than A-Rod), the Yankees may be well advised to get Alex as much rest as they possibly can.

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Moshe’s Update: The Yankees gave up Casey Erickson and Eric Fryer, two fringe prospects that are unlikely to be missed. Hinske can play all of the corner infield and outfield positions, and is currently playing right in Pittsburgh. Ramiro Pena is likely to be sent down to make room for Hinske, who has had an OPS+ of 100 or more in each of the last 4 years. I’m not sure who he is going to take at-bats from, although he may just be used to give A-Rod a day off a bit more frequently. Sherman also reports

that the Yankees want Pena to play some outfield in the minors, as they hope to turn him into a super-sub type. Two other important points from Sherman are:

1.Hinske has just one homer this season, but as a lefty playing in the new Yankee Stadium that should help him rediscover some of his power. But the Yanks remain a team that believes in working opposing pitchers and Hinske sees an outstanding 4.05 pitches per plate appearance even now and averages 3.95 for his career.

2. When reached in his office, Brian Cashman said, “This gives Joe (Girardi) more options off his bench. When Joe has to rest Alex Rodriguez, he now has another strong option to turn to. Even if we need to rest someone in the corner outfield, this makes it a little easier.”

Hinske was brought here to be a bench bat. He is not taking at-bats from the current corner outfielders, nor should he.

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Papelbon gets it right (for once)

Posted by Chris H. at 9:00 am 2 Responses »
Jun 302009

Here’s Jonathan Papelbon discussing Mariano Rivera’s 500th save (via Lisa Winston):

“He’s been able to do it with consistency year in and year out, and that’s what’s really impressive, especially in the American League East,” said Papelbon, who has been named to the AL All-Star team in each of his three full big league seasons and hopes to make it four in a row. “Hopefully I’ll be able to give him personal congratulations in St. Louis.”

Papelbon is on a similar pace, with 35 saves in 2006, 37 in ’07, 41 in ’08 and 18 so far heading into the final week before the All-Star break, to go with a 1.91 ERA.

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Chaos Theory movie And while he thinks the goal is reachable, Papelbon knows that it will take more than just luck.

“It’s realistic because you train yourself to think you’re good enough to do it,” said Papelbon, who turned 28 during the offseason. “But at the same time, to stay healthy for that many years and not only to stay healthy, but to be able to play through pain, when you’re aching day in and day out. It’s pretty amazing.”

Papelbon, a closer at Mississippi State before being drafted by Boston in the fourth round in 2003, worked as a starting pitcher for two Minor League seasons before being moved back to the closer role for good in ’06.

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Despite the “healthy” rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox — or maybe because of it — there is no closer that Papelbon admires more than Rivera.

“He’s the godfather of our role, he’s done so much for it,” Papelbon said. “To chase him is definitely an honor and definitely a challenge, and I’m always up for challenges.”

Raise Your Voice trailer Papelbon is often caught inserting his foot into his own mouth Dead Snow ipod , however, on this particular occasion he deserves some credit for saying all of the right things. I’m sure other closers in the league have a tremendous amount of respect for what Rivera has done for them (market-wise, etc.) and Papelbon definitely understands the grandiosity of Rivera’s achievement, and his subsequent impact on the game.

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Yanks add 2 Indy League Players

Posted by Steve S. at 7:18 am 2 Responses »
Jun 302009

The Yankees added two more independent league players to the organization. They signed lefty reliever Edwin Walker from the Northern League’s Gary Southshore Railcats and SS Yurendell DeCaster from the Northern League (NL) Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks to minor league deals.

Here’s the story on Walker:

GARY, Ind. — Add another RailCats pitcher to the road to the big leagues.  Hard-throwing left-hander Edwin Walker has been sold to the New York Yankees where he will report to the Charleston RiverDogs (A) of the South Atlantic League, the team announced today.

Walker, 25, becomes the 19th RailCats player – and ninth pitcher – sold to a major league organization since 2002.  The Texan returns to the affiliated minor leagues after spending the first three seasons of his professional career (2002-04) with a pair of Milwaukee Brewers farm teams.  The Brewers first drafted Walker in the ninth round in 2002 out of Highlands High School in San Antonio.

This season, Walker has been one of the best arms in an excellent RailCats bullpen, posting a 3.26 ERA in 19.1 innings and striking out a whopping 29 hitters.  Walker picked up three saves in 16 outings, going 3-0 and holding opposing hitters to just a .194 average.  Fargo-Moorhead was the only team in the Northern League to score runs off Walker in 2009, tagging the left-hander in three different appearances, otherwise Walker threw 18.0 scoreless innings against the league’s other four teams.  Walker gave up only 14 hits – eight in three outings vs. Fargo – and walked ten.

Walker was signed by the RailCats in April of this year after a fine season with the Chillicothe Paints of the Frontier League in 2008, when he carried a 1.79 ERA and struck out 51 in 45.1 innings to earn a spot in the league’s midseason All-Star Game.  Walker also played briefly in 2006 with the United League’s San Angelo Colts.   In six professional seasons, Walker has 189 strikeouts in 181.0 career innings and a 4.08 ERA.

Here’s the story on 3B Yurendell DeCaster:

FARGO, N.D. – Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks 3B Yurendell DeCaster is trading in his RedHawks pinstripes for a set of Yankees pinstripes.

The All-Star third baseman has had his contract purchased by the New York Yankees today and will report on Tuesday to the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, the Triple-A affiliate for New York in the International League.

DeCaster, 29, joined the RedHawks this spring and was arguably the top player in the Northern League this season. Entering tonight’s play, DeCaster was leading the Northern League in hits (54), doubles (14), home runs (13), RBI (43) and slugging percentage (.682). He was batting .344, good for fifth in the league, and was second in runs scored with 36.

DeCaster was selected to the Great Plains team for the 2009 Northern League All-Star Game earlier today and was the top vote-getter in the league but will not participate in the game.

”For my money, he is one of the best players to ever come through the Northern League, and that is the caliber of player we like to have in RedHawks uniforms” said RedHawks Manager Doug Simunic. “We knew this day was coming and we are glad he can continue his career at the Triple-A level. Hopefully we can see him in Yankee Stadium sometime soon.”

Nice depth move for this year at 3B, and you never have too many hard throwing lefties.

Minors Recap, 6/29

Posted by Eric Schultz at 1:56 am No Responses »
Jun 302009

Scranton shuts out Rochester, 5-0 (7 innings, game 1)

  • Ivan Nova was great in his AAA debut, giving up just 1 hit (a liner off SS Justin Bernier’s glove) and 3 walks in 5 2/3 shutout innings.  The talented 22 year-old seems to have figured things out this season, and he could be a September callup if he keeps this up.  Chad Jennings writes that Nova was sitting 93-94 with his fastball, which is a great sign.
  • Jonathan Albaladejo gave up a hit in 1 1/3 innings, with 1 strikeout.
  • Kevin Russo and Chris Stewart were 1 for 3.
  • Austin Jackson and Colin Curtis were 1 for 3 with a double.
  • Shelley Duncan was 2 for 3.
  • Juan Miranda was 1 for 2.
  • Eric Duncan was 1 for 3 with a 3-run homer.

Scranton stifles Rochester, 3-1 (game 2, 7 innings)

  • Romulo Sanchez started, and struck out 6 in 3 1/3 innings of 4-hit ball.
  • Paul Bush walked 2 in 2 2/3 hitless innings, and fanned 2.
  • Edwar Ramirez gave up a run on 3 hits and a walk, and struck out 2, in 1 inning of work.
  • Kevin Russo was 1 for 3 with a steal.
  • Austin Jackson was 1 for 3 with his 3rd homer of the season.
  • Juan Miranda was 1 for 2 with a double.

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  • Ryan Pope got shelled, giving up 11 runs (9 earned) on 12 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings.  That’s taking one for the team.
  • Kanekoa Texeira gave up a run on 3 hits and a walk in 3 innings.
  • Jorge Vazquez was 1 for 4.
  • Chris Malec was 4 for 4 with a double and a homer.
  • The rest of the lineup was hitless, and Jesus Montero had the day off.

Tampa tops Sarasota, 6-1

  • DJ Mitchell put together a solid start, giving up a run on 5 hits and 2 walks in 6 innings.  Mitchell struck out 4, and posted an 11-2 GO-AO ratio.  His ERA dropped to 4.06.  It is worthy of note that his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 2.99, which shows what we already know: Mitchell has posted great peripheral numbers (high strikeouts, low walks, lots of groundballs), but he may be unlucky on balls in play (or too hittable).
  • Pat Venditte did his thing at a new level, pitching a perfect 9th.
  • Eric Fryer was 1 for 3 with 2 walks.
  • Damon Sublett was 2 for 4 with a double and a walk.
  • Austin Romine was 2 for 5 with a double and his 10th home run of the season, which equals his total from all of last season.  He also threw out the only runner who attempted to steal against him.  Romine has thrown out around 40% of runners attempting to steal, which is a very good clip.
  • David Adams was 2 for 4.
  • Kevin Smith was 1 for 4 with a double.
  • Walter Ibarra was 2 for 4 with a walk, and was caught stealing.

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  • Manny Banuelos continued to pitch well, scattering 7 hits and a walk through 6 2/3 shutout innings, and striking out 3.  Banuelos’ ERA on the season is 2.26, and he has not given up more than 1 earned run in a start in over a month.  He’s in a nice groove.
  • Jose Pirela was 1 for 3 with a walk, raising his average to .317.  He is 13 for his last 26, and has had no trouble adjusting to full season ball.
  • Abe Almonte and Taylor Grote were each 1 for 3 with a walk.  Grote stole 2 bases, while Almonte stole 1 and was caught once.
  • Chase Weems was 2 for 3 with a double.

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  • Shaeffer Hall started, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits in 4 2/3 innings, while striking out 7.
  • Gavin Brooks got the win, striking out 2 and walking 1 in 1 1/3 hitless.
  • Jimmy Paredes was 2 for 3 with a walk and a steal.
  • Kelvin Castro was 2 for 3 with a walk.
  • Zoilo Almonte was 0 for 3.
  • Kyle Higashioka was 0 for 4.
  • Neil Medchill was 2 for 4 with a double.
  • DeAngelo Mack was 1 for 4 with a double.
  • Luke Murton was 2 for 4 with a homer and a steal.
  • Rob Lyerley was 3 for 4 with 2 doubles.

GCL Yanks defeat Phillies, 6-1 (7 innings, game 1)

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  • Matt Richardson put together another strong outing, giving up 3 hits in 5 shutout innings, and striking out 5.
  • Ramon Flores was 0 for 4.
  • Jose Toussen was 2 for 4 with a double, and was caught stealing.
  • Kelvin De Leon was 1 for 3, lowering his season average to .583.
  • Eduardo Sosa was 1 for 3.
  • Francisco Arcia was 1 for 2 with a walk.
  • Mitch Delaney was 2 for 3 with a home run and an error.

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  • Daniel Gil started, giving up 6 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits and 3 walks.
  • Eduardo Sosa was 1 for 3.
  • Ramon Flores was 0 for 2.
  • Jose Toussen was 1 for 2 with a homer and 3 walks.
  • Kelvin De Leon was 1 for 5.
  • Jose Mojica was 1 for 4.
  • Justin Milo was 1 for 4 with a homer.

Quick Bits: Matsui, Molina, Matchups

Posted by Chris H. at 10:00 pm 1 Response »
Jun 292009

Tyler Kepner brings us a few quick items to close out the day:

  • Hideki Matsui is expected to be the team’s DH tomorrow (Damon will likely be back in the lineup).
  • Jose Molina is on track to begin a rehab assignment next week, although nothing is confirmed as of now.
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And, the pitching matchups for the Mariners series are as follows (via LoHud):

Tuesday: RHP Brandon Morrow (0-3, 5.64) vs. RHP Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 3.81), 7:05, YES

Wednesday: LHP Jarrod Washburn (4-5, 3.22) vs. LHP Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.38), 7:05, YES

Thursday:

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LHP Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.79) vs. LHP CC Sabathia (7-4, 3.55), 7:05, YES

After spending 2 years in Seattle, I’ll finally get to see a game in the new Stadium (I’ll be there on Thursday). Interestingly, the last baseball game I saw was at Safeco Field and Jason Vargas was on the mound against the Red Sox. If anyone has any good advice for visiting the new ballpark (e.g., food, etc.), please, let me know!

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Trade Target: Bobby Jenks

Posted by Chris H. at 7:35 pm 16 Responses »
Jun 292009

Time for a bit of speculative fun.

From Phil Rogers (Chicago Tribune):

Teams looking to add pitching in midseason trades could be disappointed. There’s not a lot on the market, which could play to the White Sox’s advantage if they decide to deal Jose Contreras. They have a decision to make on Bobby Jenks — try to sign him to a long-term contract or listen to offers. They could get a lot if they moved him, with teams such as the Angels, Yankees, Rangers, Cardinals, Phillies, Mets and Brewers looking to beef up their bullpens.

Jenks would be an interesting acquisition for the Yankees. He’s a good closer, despite his many inconsistencies. While his HR rate is up this year (1.6 HR/9 compared to 0.4 last year), his strikeout rate—K/9 of 9.0—has climbed considerably after falling each season since his debut season in 2005 (last year, his rate was a lowly 5.5). He has a 3.21 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and has 18 saves in 28 IP (28 K, 6 BB, 5 HR). He would not be a free agent until after 2011, I believe.

Maybe the Yankees can figure out what they have with either Gardner or Melky and move one of them in a deal for Jenks (they basically have no CF)? I’m sure John Rodriguez can be an adequate extra outfielder for the team if such a deal is made (he’s a lefty and is hitting .283/.368/.505 in AAA with 12 homers). The Sox can fill the Jenksian void in their ‘pen with Octavio Dotel or even Mike Thornton, perhaps.

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Jenks might be overkill in terms of relief help, sure, but I figure, if you’re going to trade for a bullpen arm, you might as well make sure the guy you get is going to be effective and that’s all Jenks has been since he arrived on the scene. In addition, he’s a durable reliever, which is always a plus.

What do you think?

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