When Alex Rodriguez went down with his hip injury, there were some who decided that the club would be better off without him. Due to Ramiro Pena’s recent run of good play, some of those voices have regained their vigor after faltering a bit due to Cody Ransom’s poor start. In response, I wanted to post an interesting comment that I saw on Lohud a few days ago, courtesy of commenter Wave Your Hat. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the numbers, but they look right to me:
In 21 games, Ransom was about 4.4 runs worse than the average hitter, Berroa was .8 runs worse and Pena 1.9 runs worse.
Between them, they were 7.1 runs worse than the average hitter. Maybe Pena and Berroa had a few at bats playing other positions, but not enough to worry about.
Last year, which was far from ARod’s best year, he was 38.1 runs better than the average hitter in 138 games. If ARod had not been hurt and had performed at last year’s rate, he could be expected to have been about 5.72 runs better than the average hitter over that same 21 game period.
That means, looking just at hitting, ARod would have been about 12.82 runs better than the Ransom/Berroa/Pena combination over our first 21 games. That doesn’t include all the runs his defense might have saved over the Ransom/Berroa combo.
At the accepted 10 runs equaling a win, that means last year’s ARod would have been about 1.25 wins better over the first 21 games than Ransom/Berroa/Pena, which translates to about 9.6 wins better over a full season.
9.6 wins is a staggeringly huge number. And that’s using ARod’s sub-par 2008 year. On career numbers, it’s more than that. And that’s not including ARod’s glove versus Ransom’s or Berroa’s.
The difference between the motley crew occupying 3rd base and A-Rod is enormous, and the boost Alex should give the already percolating offense cannot be overstated. He may add some controversy to the mix, but that is certainly a burden the Yankees will accept to gain almost 10 wins.
Related posts:
Arod is the most important player on this team.
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Old Ranger Reply:
May 3rd, 2009 at 7:49 pm
I don’t know about that statement but, if he isn’t, he is tied with another guy…Posada.
For different reasons I believe they are very important to the well being of this team. This year there have been a few people step up and show their value. I would say more like; with all the guys healthy it is like the teeth in a gear…one missing, slows everything down.
Getting A-Rod back, along with Bruney will go a long way towards making this a strong team again.
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Eric Schultz Reply:
May 3rd, 2009 at 9:37 pm
But Mo, you’re not including the runs that A-Rod will cost the Yankees by tipping pitches for the opposition.
The team allowed 727 runs, and since A-Rod played in 138 games (85.2% of the Yankees’ games), his pitch-tipping is clearly responsible for 619 runs. Assuming A-Rod plays 120 games this season, that number will drop to around 540, which comes out to -54 wins. This brings A-Rod’s net contribution to -44 wins. See, it’s statistics.
And if I include the unquantifiable but still vital statistics of grit, hustle, and team chemistry, I would estimate that A-Rod’s net contribution is about -50 wins. Ergo, the Yankees are much better off without A-Rod.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
May 3rd, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Lol. Actually, I’m also leaving out Ramiro Pena’s youtful enthusiasm. That has to count for something. Therefore, I have to conlcude they would be 0-30 with Alex. And yes, i am aware of the them only having played 24 games.
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Old Ranger Reply:
May 3rd, 2009 at 10:26 pm
You guys are the best…hit it on the head!
What must I have been thinking, to be so wrong? I’m sorry guys, it won’t happen again.
I mean stats are stats, I must pay more attention to them from now on.
Yigesu, benon!?!
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Subway Squawkers Reply:
May 4th, 2009 at 11:26 am
You forgot the True Yankee factor. A-Rod will never be a true Yankee, so he’s a negative on that.
On another note (shameless self-promotion alert), I added you guys to the Subway Squawkers blogroll.
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