Guest Post: The Phil Hughes To The Bullpen Question

This is a post from loyal reader Harry G.
ESPN’s Rob Neyer suggests that with the return of Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees should consider moving Phil Hughes to the bullpen, which currently sports 5.46 ERA, third worst on the majors. First, check out his piece.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot/0-2-96/Why-not-send-Phil-Hughes-to-bullpen-.html

David Cone also mentioned it on YES a couple of days ago, and Jon Kruk talked of this possibility on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight, this past Sunday night. That usually means that people in the Yankee organization are considering this as a realistic option.

Now, let’s break down this proposition one-by-one and see if putting Hughes in the pen indeed makes sense or not.

First, Neyer brings down a piece from ESPN prospect guru Keith Law regarding Hughes:

“Is it too early to say that Hughes no longer projects as even a No. 2 or No. 3 starter?
Law says it is “too early to give up on Hughes just based on age, history and his irregular experience since the original callup and injury. If the Yankees don’t want to give him reps in the Majors to develop, then they’re probably better off letting him go to [Triple-A] and dominate there, thus somewhat restoring his trade value.”

That sentence in bold is the key right there. Let’s make one thing clear: If the Yanks will move Phil to the pen, it should be on the condition that Hughes will eventually return to the rotation. It would be downright stupid to give up on a 22-yr-old kid just because he’s been inconsistent or injured in the short amount of time that he’s been up. In 2007, he was in middle of a no-hitter when he tore his hamstring in Texas, the Yankees’ cursed ballpark of late. He came back late in the season, was fairly well but uneconomical as a starter, and showed flashes of greatness in his stint out of the bullpen in game 4 of the ALDS against the Indians.

Now, last year was an unmitigated disaster by all accounts, but he was found to have a bruised rib a month into the season. And let’s now forget that the unreasonable amount of pressure put on him from the outset of spring training – or even earlier, from when Brian Cashman refused to give him up in a deal for Johan Santana – might have attributed to his lack of success. This season, Hughes showed exactly why Cashman wasn’t completely crazy when he held on to him, throwing six shutout innings in his debut against the Tigers. Since then though, he’s been up and down.

The point I’m trying to make is that not every young pitcher is consistently productive right from the outset. Witness Joba’s struggles as proof of that. A young starter will have one great outing one night, and five days later might struggle to get out of the fourth inning. It’s all part of the process of developing young pitchers, the most valuable commodity in major league baseball. So it would be incredibly short-sighted to stick Hughes in the pen and just give up his future as a starter. It goes without saying that a young starter with strikeout ability, even a number 2 or 3 starting pitcher with an ERA around 4, has much more worth to a team than the best reliever outside of the closer.

Look at it this way: Who’s more important to the success of the Red Sox, currently and in the future, Jon Lester or Hideki Okajima?

The Yankees though, are a team that is built to win NOW. Their fan-base is impatient by nature, and the high-ticket prices and the amount of money they spent in the off-season doesn’t help matters. They have much less time and patience than other teams to develop young pitching on the major league level. As Neyer writes, “You might recall that when the Yankees were winning the American League East every single year, they developed just one starting pitcher: Andy Pettitte. Well, there was a good reason for that. Yes, they were impatient with their young pitchers, but when you’re trying to win every single year you almost have to be impatient. How many young starters have the Red Sox come up with during their run of success? One: Jon Lester (and of course in Clay Buchholz, they’ve got a Phil Hughes of their own).”

Hughes also has done everything he possibly can on the minor-league level. He needs to throw major league innings. So with the way the pen has been throwing outside of Mariano and Bruney, it does make sense on some level to put him into the bullpen, where he can help the major league team and simultaneously throw major league innings. As for building up his innings, Steve S. at “The Yankee Universe” has this solution:

“I’m sure the Yanks share my view of Hughes as a starter long term, so if this move was made he would certainly not log enough innings this season. He’s at 36 IP right now, and Cashman says Wang will get another start in AAA, so lets call that 42 IP. Figure he would add another 50-60 as a reliever this year. Then he can pick up another 30 innings in the Arizona Fall League/Winter Ball as they did with him last year. That puts him at 120-130 for the season, which is more than enough to make him the 5th starter next year without any restrictions.”

But there are two problems, in my view, with putting Hughes into the pen, at least now, just because CMW as coming back:

1) Almost no team ever gets 30 starts from each of the 5 starters that are penciled into the rotation on Opening Day. That was the most astonishing factor of the Rays’ success last year, the ability of all of their 5 starters to stay healthy for the whole season. That’s why every good team makes sure to have several starters waiting in the wings just in case. The Red Sox signed Brad Penny and John Smoltz, and the Yankees had Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Alfredo Aceves, waiting to step in when needed.

Hughes obviously has already been called up because of Wang’s injury. IPK is out for the foreseeable future after undergoing surgery to heal an aneurysm in his right shoulder. Aceves is already up as the long man, and has done a fine job when called upon.

This leaves the Yankees with almost zero depth in their rotation beyond the first 5 guys. Let’s look at who was in the rotation to start the season, and for argument’s sake, through extremely pessimistic glasses:

- A 27-year-old rotation horse in CC Sabathia who threw 494 innings in 2007-’08, and has already thrown 63 innings this season. Now, nobody is saying that CC is bound to get injured, and right now there’s no sign that he’s wearing down at all. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he can break down at some point.

- 32-year-old A.J. Burnett, who has thrown 200 innings exactly once in his career, and has a history of getting injured.

- 29-year-old CMW, who hasn’t pitched effectively in about 13 months, and is coming off a foot injury and hip problems, and currently sports a putrid 34.50 ERA. There’s no proof at all that he is back to full strength yet, or that he will return to form this season.

- A 36-year-old Andy Pettitte, who’s pitched superbly for the most part this season, but did develop elbow pain towards the second half of last season.

- A 23-year-old kid in Joba who’s had an ERA in the top 10 in major league baseball since he went back to the rotation last year, but has yet to throw more than 110 in a full season in professional ball. Even if he stays healthy, – and by golly, I hope and pray he does, because the media will go gaga with their calls for Joba to the pen if he gets some minor muscle pull, and cite his “history of getting injured as a starter,” although his injury last season was more likely a result of being shuffled back and forth from the pen to the rotation than anything else – the Yanks still will need someone to throw 40-50 innings when Joba reaches his innings limit in late August or the beginning of September, on his current pace.

As you can see, it is just irrational to think that the Yanks won’t suffer an injury or two to the starting rotation throughout he next couple of months. Heck, Wang already has been out with an injury that nobody saw coming. Just because the Yanks have 5 healthy starters on one day in the season doesn’t mean that they won’t suffer any more injuries. Burnett can land on the DL at any moment based on his history. It would be incredibly short-sighted to mess up Phil’s development just because they have 5 healthy starters for a period of time. That could change at any second. Even if the Yanks have decided to put Hughes into the pen, why do it the second Wang is activated? He might go out there and stink up the joint in his first start! To me, you wait until Wang makes a start, or even two, and then you decide what to do with Phil.

As to those who say “Use him in the pen and he’ll move back into the rotation when needed in case of injury or a double-header etc.”, I say, thanks, but no thanks. We already have Aceves for that. I’d rather risk him getting injured going back and forth from the bullpen then a 22-yr-old kid after what Joba has gone through over the past 3 seasons.

2) What will Phil’s role in the bullpen be? With Bruney coming back last night and pitching a 1-2-3 inning, you assume that he occupies the vaunted eighth inning-role. As for a long-man, you already have Aceves for that. The Mexican Gangsta has done a more-than-admirable job in the pen, and he should stay where he is currently. I actually think Joe Girardi should give him some more meaningful innings. At least more than the great Jose Nervas. So what exactly will Hughes do? Pitch the seventh inning? Again, thanks but no thanks.

I don’t think taking a starter with as much potential as Hughes, who’s next step in his development is to learn how to go a few times through a lineup and stay economical and effective, and using him in the seventh or eight inning is the right thing to do.

Like I said, he might be needed in the rotation at a moment’s notice, and shuffling him between a relief role and the rotation is too big a risk in my opinion. Look how valuable he was at the beginning of the season waiting in the wings as the sixth starter. Wang looked absolutely lost, and single-handedly lost three games for the Yankees. Hughes was inserted into the rotation, managed to hold his own, and the Yankees have won two out of the three games he’s pitched in, at least the ones where he kept them in the game.

To me, you keep him on the team even though you activate Wang. If he stinks, back to Tampa he goes, and Hughes continues to start. The Yanks are on too big a roll right now and can’t afford having Wang slow them down just like he did at the beginning of the season. Hughes stays as long as Wang proves he’s healthy. And i don’t wanna hear anything about the Yankees wasting a roster spot. If Ahn-Hell Freaking Berroa’s ass can cost us a roster spot, then so can Hughes’. Now if Wang is indeed healthy, then I’m sorry, the best course of action would be to send him back to AAA and have him continue to throw every five days to develop his innings.

Believe me, it won’t be long before he’ll be back in the Bronx to make a start.

Related posts:

1. Joe Girardi discusses Phil Hughes
2. Callis and Law on Phil Hughes
3. Bullpen or Minors?
4. The Phil Hughes Situation
5. The Problem With Phil Hughes?