The answer is yes, and hard.
It’s been widely speculated that Roy Halladay will be made available at the mid season trade deadline, most recently by John Heyman of SI. For us as Yankee fans, its easy to envision the Yanks enjoying a healthy rotation and not having a glaring need, but that simply will not factor into this equation. This is not an ordinary pitcher, this is one of the top 2-3 pitchers in the game. Guys like him who are still in their prime (31) simply don’t become available that often. Cashman would move Heaven and Earth (re:Hughes+) to acquire a pitcher of his abilities.
The NYTimes did an excellent piece on Halladay yesterday, profiling him as a pitcher and how mature his approach is on the mound.
Halladay’s 206 strikeouts last year, a career high, were all but unintentional.
“Really, I try and avoid them,” he said. “My main goal is to get ahead and get balls put in play early. It wasn’t something I tried to do. But if you get ahead in the count quickly and you have a chance to put guys away, you do it.”
That’s the kind of thing you don’t hear pitchers with his stuff say until they get old and start to lose it. It also helps to explain why he had such a big effect on AJ Burnett last year.
He’s a 10+5 guy, which give him blanket no trade protections. That means he can steer the process to make sure he lands wherever he wants to go. AJ Burnett said after he signed with the Yanks that he was already recruiting him to come to the Bronx. The Blue Jays may not want to trade him within the division, but he has the right to veto any deal that sends him somewhere he doesn’t want to go. So he has the final say in this process, not Ricchardi. Also, in order to waive his no trade rights he will VERY likely demand a huge extension (3-4 years at 20+ mil per) he’d be foolish not to. That limits the number of suitors for his services to the big market clubs that are least affected by the economy. That’s the Yanks, Red Sox, maybe the Mets and 1-2 other teams. That will hold his price down somewhat, the fewer the bidders the lower the price. But you know the Yanks and Sox will do whatever they can to screw the other team, so there’s a game of chicken involved.
Toronto’s fallback position could be to simply not trade him, but that will depend on how much financial pressure the team is under if they fall out of it. To get a sense of that, keep an eye on their year over year attendance figures. If they’re on pace to draw significantly less than they did last year (10% or more) then he’s going somewhere. They really have nowhere else to go. Vernon Wells would need a monster year to have any trade value, and even then his insane contract would scare off all suitors. Scott Rolen is always hurt and a team that acquires him would owe him another 11 mil for 2010, so he would fetch little in return. Ditto for BJ Ryan. Halladay is the only one they can trade and get significant value back in return. When you consider everything, Halladay’s the one who makes the most sense.
Related posts:
How valuable of a package are you willing to part with to get Halladay? would you do a Hughes, Montero, and some other high value prospect? Ace II(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
April 5th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
It would probably cost Hughes, Montero, Betances, and possibly a Vizcaino/DeLa Rosa type. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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Steve S. Reply:
April 5th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
To be honest, that sounds very high. You’re trading for 1 1/2 years of his service, the extension you give him pays him with dollars after that, so that’s not included.
In order for it to cost that, you’d have to convince me that the Sox were going to do Bucholtz, Lars Anderson, Bard and a good lower minor leaguer. I don’t think there’s a snowballs chance Theo gives up that much. He didn’t want to give up Hanley Ramirez/Anibel Sanchez for Beckett, and he was 26 at the time. Steve S.(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
April 5th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Hey, if you want the guy, that is about what it is going to cost. You can make a very strong argument that he the best pitcher in baseball, maybe second to Johan. It is certainly going to cost Hughes and Montero/Jackson. After that, you may be able to bargain a Betances type out, but I think that I am on the right track. He’s not a rental- 1.5 seasons is plenty. But it this way- if the Sox got him without giving up both Bucholz and Lars, I would say that they ripped Toronto off. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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Troy Reply:
April 5th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
I agree with Steve…that seems like quite a package.
I mean, two/three high upside pitching prospects and a high upside hitter? that’s a ton. I don’t think anybody’s worth that much. Troy(Quote)
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Steve S. Reply:
April 5th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
My answer to these questions is always the same. I’ll give up only what I absolutely have to, and nothing more. I’ll need to know what other teams are offering before I can tell you that. I’ll also need to know where the Yanks are with their pitching. If Burnett/CC is on the DL for the rest of the year, then I give up more than I would if everyone is healthy.
If the Sox did a package of Bucholtz+Lars Anderson (which they won’t) would I do Hughes+Montero? Yes, I would. I still have Romine to groom mas my future catcher and the reality is the Yanks will go hard after Joe Mauer as a free agent in 2011. Steve S.(Quote)
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Troy Reply:
April 5th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
and the reality is the Yanks will go hard after Joe Mauer as a free agent in 2011.
While I think Minnesota will probably retain him, I have to agree with that. damn…he’ll get a pretty big deal if he reaches free agency. Troy(Quote)
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Steve S. Reply:
April 5th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
The danger would be if he doesn’t reach free agency, and gets traded before then. Then you would want to be sure you have enough in your system to get him in a deal next year. And yes, the Sox would be bidding hard on him as well. They might need him more than we do. Steve S.(Quote)
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Imagine that…the Burnett signing could be helpful after all.
I was very critical of giving him 5 years…but if he could be the guy that pushes Halladay to the Bronx, I’d be thrilled.
And yes, I’d be willing to give up a lot. Troy(Quote)
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First I don’t see the Yankees trying to trade for Halladay. One, it will clean out their farm system. This is a guarantee because everyone looks to rob the Yankees and he’s in the same division.
Second, yeah I’m sorry I know he’s a great pitcher and everyone can use a great pitcher on their and you can never have too much pitching, but the Yankees don’t need him. Last I checked they arguably have the best rotation in baseball.
I’m fine with developing pitchers and have them pitch for the Yankees. Next year Hughes will likely be in the rotation and of course Joba.
I like seeing that. Trevor(Quote)
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There in no chance he comes to the Yankees at all. If he is traded I see him going to the Angels who in return let Lackey go to free agency. scott l(Quote)
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It would create a big time bottle-neck on the staff. The Yanks would end up with three of their five starters getting old as one…bad news! That happened to the Yanks back in the days of Richardson, Kubek etc., they lost three of four guys all in one/two years.
Therefore, I think the Yanks should pass and open some spots for the home boys to fight for.
Trevor had it right (I believe), giving up to many young arms for one player, is not good for business.
The Yanks need to implement a “Home Boy”, attitude for their players. Who knows, there may be another Halladay in the mix we already have. Old Ranger(Quote)
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Trade them Wang and a prospect(s) and sign him to an extension and we would have the two best pitchers in baseball (or most valuable last year).
Also not so sure if that’s really a “mature” approach to pitching. I can’t possible see any argument that the best pitchers are the ones that intentional do not strike guys out. Missing bats is an important skill, any pitcher that doesn’t realize that is pretty stupid. Alex(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
April 6th, 2009 at 11:36 am
I think they are overstating it. I doubt they dont want strikeouts, I think they are just saying that they dont mind contact, knowing that they can miss bats when they need to. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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WE NEED HALLADAY!!!!!!!! I mean we should give up Bruney and Wang for him! Dah! anonymous(Quote)
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