Buster Olney recently handicapped the Matt Holliday sweepstakes that are sure to ensue the second free agency opens following the 2009 season. He mentions the Angels and Red Sox as the top two suitors, being that both could use a middle of the order type bat, and has the Yankees in third:
3. YANKEES: The contracts of Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui will expire after this season, so the Yankees will be in a position to take a run at Holliday — and if the team doesn’t make the playoffs again, the Yankees will be under enormous pressure to sign the slugger. If you think the right-handed hitting Holliday wouldn’t be a good fit in Yankee Stadium, well, there are long-term scouts who would vehemently disagree with you.
“You know how [Derek] Jeter flips his home runs over the right-field wall?” asked one scout. “That’s exactly how Holliday would hit in Yankee Stadium, except in much greater volume. His swing is perfect for Yankee Stadium.”
Jeter might be the X factor. At some point over the next 18 months, the Yankees may well approach him about shifting away from shortstop. He cannot move to third base, because of Alex Rodriguez, and Teixeira is locked in as the first baseman for the next eight years. It’s unlikely the Yankees would consider moving Jeter to second base, because the questions about whether he would have suitable range to play the middle infield will still stand.
So if Jeter is to continue playing with the Yankees, it would probably have to be in left or right field, given that he will turn 36 in June 2010. That looming issue shouldn’t be a consideration as the Yankees think of ways to improve for next season, but the reality is that political concerns were at the root of the club’s decisions to essentially overpay Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and A-Rod in the winter of 2007-08.
No matter how well Holliday’s swing may fit in Yankee Stadium, I think there are a variety of factors that should keep the Yankees away from him. Firstly, the Jeter issue does suggest that locking a left fielder up with a long term contract may not be the most prudent move for a team that may need to find a position for their captain within the not so distant future. Furthermore, the availability of Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez gives the Yankees cheaper and shorter-term options, especially if the market for outfielders remains depressed. The Yankees already have two legitimate middle of the order hitters, and would be fine if they supplemented those players with a hitter such as Bay. While Holliday is a significantly better defensive player than both Ramirez and Bay, the added flexibility that the Yankees would be gaining by eschewing another long term deal makes that sacrifice worth it. Holliday is much more valuable to the Angels and Red Sox, two teams with aging middle of the order hitters who can use a player of Matt’s caliber. For once, the Yankees should pass.
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Yeah I don’t he’s a fit and I don’t think the Yankees will go after him. Unless it’s to drive up the price in the Sox or something.
This is part of how the Yankees got themselves in trouble before (stuck with too long term deals) by going after players they don’t necessarily need. We have a 2 middle of the order hitters already, why get another one?
Instead the LF position should be filled in by a complimentry but productive type of player. Not another All*Star.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 22nd, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Totally agree. Bay is that type of player, although I do not love that his defense is so bad.
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With 26 Mil coming off the books in Damon/Matsui, they can certainly afford him. And I would support moving Derek to LF and have argued for it in the past, but I always run into this roadblock. Who plays SS if not Jeter? Is there a first rate FA SS in 2010-11 that I’m unaware of?
-After his recent comments, I think we can rule out Jimmy Rollins.
-Hanley? Love his bat, but he’s really not a SS and won’t get any better as he ages.
-(MIL) J.J. Hardy? Arb guy with 4 years service. No idea if the Brewers will lock him up or not.
-(ARZ) Stephen Drew? Good one, Boras guy, signed through 2009. Nice player, would likely be a trade candidate, and the trade would likely happen this year. Timing wouldn’t work.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6298
Of the 4, my guess would be Hardy in a couple years.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 22nd, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Yeah, I would guess the Yankees go after Hardy- he seems to fit the Jeter mold. Of course, I would love Hanley, whose fielding got much better this season.
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It depends on what type of deal Holliday will get. If he can be had for 4-5 years, then I might be willing to bite (I have my doubts on how he will produce outside Coors), but I’m not at all objected towards getting Jason Bay. He’s a nice fit, although defense is a huge weakness for him. Holliday isn’t the most defensively adept, but he’s better than Bay.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 22nd, 2009 at 1:46 pm
According to the numbers, Holliday is an extremely underrated defensive player. He is actually one of the better corner outfielders in baseball.
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Troy Reply:
March 22nd, 2009 at 3:06 pm
heh, every indication I’ve gotten is that he’s average to slightly below average in LF…so if he’s above average, that’s better than I expected.
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I say we’re jumping the gun, in more ways than one, let’s see how Matt does in the AL and away from his friendly NL ballpark. Don’t get me wrong I think he’s an outstanding ballplayer, but show me first…
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Bronx Baseball Daily Reply:
March 22nd, 2009 at 11:36 pm
You are absolutely right. We don’t exactly know what he’s capable of. I liked the idea that the Yankees jumped in at the last minute on Teixeira because they preferred him over Holliday.
Also there is John Lackey to consider. If he’s available and Hughes has a bad year maybe they make a run.
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Is Carl Crawford still a potential free agent after this season?
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 22nd, 2009 at 10:24 pm
The Rays hold an option for 10 million.
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Old Ranger Reply:
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:04 pm
I have heard that they may not pick-up the option. I have mixed feelings on him (going from memory), he has good speed and glove but, low OBP.
This is all supposition but; why not try A-Jax in CF/LF and Brett in LF/CF? If A-Jax does well in AAA this year it would kill two birds with one stone. Bring up A-Jax in 2010 to work with Brett (two speed guys), then in 2011 move Jeter to the OF…again, this is all supposition. Just my optimistic out look on both of these players coming up with dependable and realistic seasons.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Well, A-Jax’s bat may not play in left, at least not right away.
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