Although our own Stephen S. covered this a few days ago, I’d like to weigh in.
Stephen Strasberg is the best NCAA pitcher in recent memory. All things being equal, he’s probably better right now than Mark Prior was. Strasberg, pitching for San Diego, has thrown 34 innings so far this season, with 74 strikeouts and just 7 walks. He has a fastball that tops out in Joel Zumaya territory, and strong secondary pitches to go along with them. He was the lone college player on the 2008 US Olympic team, and went 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA for the Bronze Medal team. Not sold yet? Look at this video: (Warning, there’s sound)
How could this man possibly be relevent to the Yankees? Contract demands. Scott Boras, Strasberg’s agent, has recently stated that he wants a 50 million dollar major league contract for his client at the draft. This sounds absurd. It probably is. Boras uses the threat of playing in Japan for a year as leverage for Strasberg. However, Strausberg will probably still earn the largest contract in draft history, and could merit it.
Many top rookies are signing six or seven year extensions after just a year of major league play. Evan Longoria pulled off a 6 year, 17.5 million dollar deal after barely getting his feet wet in the major leagues just a year and a half after signing a 3 million dollar minor league contract. Teams have showed a willingness to commit a lot of money to young players despite the risk involved. I don’t think its all that outrageous for some team to pay a player as good as Strasberg right out of the draft something like 25 million over 5 years.
Teams generally don’t help out agents before the draft. That means that the Yankees don’t put out hints in the newspapers that they might be willing to pay 20 million or more for a player who isn’t yet the property of any team. That doesn’t mean that they couldn’t in the future. If the baseball economy isn’t looking so hot come May, few teams are going to have the minor league budgets to pay even 15 million for a single player. The Nationals were willing to spend a lot of money this offseason, so they might have it in their budget. Their negotiating tactic thus far has been to discount Boras’ crazy demands and claim that they will take all offers. I’m sure that even they have a maximum price. If Boras can scare the Nationals away, Strausberg can drop pretty far. The Yankees pick at #26, two picks in front of the Red Sox at #28, and should be able to afford Strasberg. Many believe that Strasberg is immediately MLB ready. He could replace Andy Pettitte for less money in 2010.
Its a fantasy scenario, but you never know.
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One of the higher ups from Washington basically said that they will take him and he will accept what they offer. He is likely to get a record deal, and he is never going to get to the Yanks, unfortunately. I guess we need to hold out hope for Yu Darvish.
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Chris H. Reply:
March 24th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
The Nationals are idiots, though. Why spend money on guys like Adam Dunn in the off-season? Save that money for the draft. That organization is a mess.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 24th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Hey, the difference between 71 and 74 wins is huge!!
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Chris H. Reply:
March 24th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
LOL. And, I’m assuming the difference between Strasburg and the next guy could be pretty huge, too.
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strasberg*
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Doh. I just woke up
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I thought the Rsox drafted #28 and we picked at #29? Either way, I don’t think we will have a chance in hell of getting him. If he is for real, it would be nice to have him on the staff next year…along with CC, CMW, AJ and Joba.
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Munson's Stache Reply:
March 24th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Concur with the draft order. We’re one pick behind the Sox. Even in fantasy land, they would get their shot at him before we would.
Never going to happen, but it’s fun to think about while we wait out the rest of spring training
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Steve S. Reply:
March 24th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Yeah, River Ave has the draft order as this:
#25 Angels (from Yankees for Type-A Mark Teixeira)
#26 Brewers
#27 Mariners (from Phillies for Type-A Raul Ibanez)
#28 Red Sox
#29 Yankees (for failure to sign ‘08 first rounder Gerrit Cole)
#30 Rays
#31 Cubs
#32 Rockies (from Angels for Type-A Brian Fuentes)
http://riveraveblues.com/2009-draft-order/
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EJ, I’m a big fan of your writing, but disagree with your logic here. I think it’d be a sad day when teams start paying these hefty contracts for players straight out of the draft. Baseball parity is due in no small part to the ability of teams (that are usually unable to compete for big free agents) to make wise draft choices and build solid nuclei. Can’t miss prospects are the bread and butter of these farm systems, who even with limited budgets can afford a relatively reasonable 5-8 million dollar draft risk. But if you start raising the bar to 15,20, 50 million dollar demands, you’ll be immediately pricing out a significant portion of MLB. Even the best managed rookies typically fail (especially pitchers), so there’s no way a small market team could take that type of a financial risk on a guaranteed contract (not to mention completely nullify the current reward system of the draft).
AND even for arguments sake, lets say Strasberg was worth it, I think you’d immediately start seeing lesser prospects all demanding similarly inflated contracts, and end up with 80% of the top players going to the 5 most financially advantaged teams. In my opinion, I just can’t see this being good for baseball.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 24th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
I agree on that. However, as selfish Yankees fans, you have to understand that we just want Strasburg, even if it is not the best thing for baseball. Fans tend to be shortsighted that way. I dont think EJ was passing judgement on this in terms of whether it was good or bad, just outlining a scenario under which the Yankees could land the phenom.
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Paul Reply:
April 29th, 2009 at 11:54 pm
I think it is ridiculous to think that Yankees fan would even fathom the thought of Strasberg on their team. Even if he gets past Washington there are still 27 other teams that have the chance to get him before New York. You are right Yankees fans are selfish. They buy all the talent yet have no idea how to use it. Maybe you should send Girardi to see LaRussa here in Saint Louis and let him teach Joe a few things about how to manage a team and win without talent. We have Pujols and that is all we need. New York on the other hand has top talent at every position and still can’t place higher then third in your division. Nice ballpark by the way… to bad it hurts your overpaid pitchers more then helps your hitters.
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The Yankees pick 29th, they lost the 26th pick with the Texiera signing.
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Yeah, I’ve got to think that no one, even the Yankees, is insane enough to completely wreck the mlb draft by offering up a $25M deal, not when the previous highest ever for a top pick is $10.5M (for Prior – look how well THAT worked out). The Yanks didn’t overbid for Inoa or Dice-K, so I don’t think they’re thrilled with offering groundbreaking contracts to prospects. Overslot is one thing, but $25M seems absurd, especially in this economy.
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I thought the Yankees were 29th…with the Sox at 28.
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