“…scouts saying that they dont see Smoltz being able to be effective coming back from this particular injury.

I find that interesting. I know it’s a big if, and I’m kind of a natural pessimist these days regarding the Yankees, but if there is anybody who I could see coming back from that type of surgery at 42, it’s Smoltz.

I already said I don’t see Penny being all that great for the Sox, for reasons already mentioned. Inconsistent pitcher when facing crappy competition, how the heck can he be expected to be good in the toughest division in baseball? I don’t see it working out very well. Maybe Penny can be serviceable for a month or two, but overall, I don’t see him being any type of difference maker for the Sox.

Solid post overall, I can understand where you’re coming from.

Now, obviously you can doubt if he can come back from major shoulder surgery at age 42, since that can be fairly difficult to do I suppose. Shoulder surgery is a pitchers worst nightmare. However, back when Smoltz was working out for teams, (back in December I believe), there were reports from Sox scouts that he was throwing fastballs in the low 90s and mixing in his splitter, slider, and curve. He sounds very committed towards pitching as well as he can with the Sox this year, and until I am lead to believe otherwise, I do believe he will be dominant this year. If his ERA is over 3.5, I’ll be surprised.

I’m not very high on Brad Penny, as he’s never been a consistently great pitcher while pitching against crappy NL competition in huge ballparks, so I can understand why that signing is being downplayed a bit (although I did hear he was hitting 91-94 in ST, and his shoulder, according to him, felt as good as ever) but I can’t understand Smoltz. That guy is truly a freak of nature.

IMO, the starting rotations rank as this to me:

1) Red Sox
2) Rays
3) Yankees

And lastly, lets not forget about the SP depth the Sox possess. Not only do they possess a very good frontend with Lester, Dice-K, and Beckett (Dice-K may have been lucky, but a 2.9 ERA in the AL East is a 2.9 ERA, which is ace-like) and still have a variety of options to use in the 4th and 5th spots. Penny, for at least the first two months, could be a solid 4/5 starter (nothing special, but pitch well enough to keep the Sox in games). Wakefield, until his disasterous start in Tampa last September, had an ERA under 4 and was baffling hitters all summer long, Buchholz can only pitch better this year (his upside is still huge), Masterson could be moved back to the rotation if need be, and of course, come June, they’ll have Smoltz back and ready to dominate. I fail to see how the Sox rotation could be considered merely “third-best” in the East…they’re packed with quality and quantity at Starting Pitching…coupled with their bullpen, they have the best collection of pitching in baseball, imo.

I hate saying this, but I feel it’ll either be the Rays or the Sox winning the division (I lean towards the Rays) with the loser of those two winning the WC. The Yankees will be there all season, and there is no doubt in my mind that the Rays-Sox-Yankees are the top three teams in baseball, but I can’t see how the Yankees are better than those other two teams. The Sox and the Rays are simply loaded full of talent.