Red Sox
1.) Beckett
2.) Dice K
3.) Lester
4.) Wakefield
5.) Penny/Smoltz
Tampa Bay
1.) Kazmir
2.) Shields
3.) Garza
4.) Price
5.) Sonnanstine
Yankees
1.) Sabathia
2.) Wang
3.) Burnett
4.) Chamberlain
5.) Pettitte
I think we can all agree Toronto is #4 and Baltimore is #5. But what I’m really interested in are the 3 contenders. Toronto could possibly be higher, they led the league in fewest Runs Allowed (610) last year. But with the very quiet off season they’ve had and the losses of Burnett, Marcum and McGowan, its hard to argue for them being able to duplicate last year’s performance.
The Yanks have 3 guys with top of the rotation stuff (CC, AJ, Joba) and Wang might be the best 4th option in Baseball. I think Andy will be solid, people seem to forget that there were questions about him holding up through the season going into ST last year, because he wasn’t able to keep up with his off season conditioning program due to the Clemens/Congress distractions. The Yanks do have some questions on health, but no more than anyone else does. AJ Bunett’s fragility has been overstated (avg 183 IP over last 4 years ) and Wang’s injury wasn’t even arm related. They also have more depth to deal with injuries this year, with last year’s opening day #4 (Hughes) and #5 (Kennedy) in AAA.
The Red Sox may still have the best pitcher of the 3 teams in Beckett, but he was shut down for a month late last year with an injury that the Sox were (and still are) very evasive about. It makes you wonder about the shoulder that the Sox were so worried about when they saw his medicals after they traded for him in November 05. The one Gammons said was described to him as “chopmeat” by a Red Sox exec, and they demanded (and received) extra compensation for in reliever Guillermo Mota. But until he visits Dr Andrews, you still have to assume he’ll be great. Dice-K is another story, he can’t keep walking 5.06/9IP and succeed in MLB. He appears to be falling into the same pattern that has plagued other Japanese imports like Hideo Nomo, becoming increasingly bat shy and trying to get outs with pitches outside the zone. He was ‘a Houdini act’ last year, but his luck won’t last forever. Lester is terrific and you expect good things from him, but after that it’s a mess. Who knows what Wakefield gives you anymore and I have no idea what they were thinking with Penny. He was horrendous last year (6-9 6.27 ERA) with LA and has a bad shoulder which hasn’t been operated on yet. They’re going to have trouble every 4th and 5th day, and their bullpen is still thin in the middle. Smoltz is a wild card, but at age 42 and coming off shoulder surgery, it’s hard to count on him. Smoltz may very well be used out of the bullpen if needed. Their off season moves (including Saito) appear to be intended to buy time for Bucholtz, Bowden, Masterson, Bard and others to develop. And they’ll need them to, especially if they suffer any injuries to the top 3.
Tampa figures to be outstanding top to bottom, and Price may very well be the best pitcher on the staff. But given that it will be his first full season in the bigs, its tough to expect him to dominate right away. Kazmir is very good and if can learn to economize his pitches he can get even better. But the elbow injury from last April bears watching. Shields is the most complete pitcher they have, Garza can be as good (or bad) as his maturity allows him to be. The 1-2 punch of Price/Garza could eventually be as good as there is in the game, but that figures to be a few years down the road for both of them. Sonnanstine is a nice #5, and they have good options in AAA backing him up. The Rays enjoyed exceptional health from their starting 5 last year, which is difficult to repeat. Given how young many of their starters are, their health history is still somewhat incomplete. Tampa will pitch well and catch the ball, the question will become whether they can score enough runs to keep up with the Yanks and Red Sox.
I would rank them as follows
1-Yankees
2-Tampa
3-Boston
4-Toronto
5-Baltimore
Related posts:
The Red Sox may still have the best pitcher of the 3 teams in Beckett
According to whom? I don’t even think Beckett is the best pitcher on his own team.
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Basil Fomeen Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 11:26 am
I think Lester is scary good… and that sucks, but Beckett’s stuff is considered exceptional and I agree something is happening with him, as was mentioned in this post.
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Mike R. - Retire 21 Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 11:40 am
I agree on Lester, but I think that Lester, CC and Kazmir are all better than Beckett even before Beckett started faltering. The guy has only had two really good (ERA+ of at least 120) seasons. I think Beckett is one of those optical illusion guys, he has such dominant moments it blurs the other stuff.
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Steve S. Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 6:12 pm
I’m sorry, but Lester has to have more than one good season before he leapfrogs Beckett. I don’t jump on and off bandwagons that quickly.
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Ace II Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 6:44 pm
thank you. i thought i was the only one that needed more evidence before anointing him the new pedro.
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I don’t consider Kazmir the ace of that staff. He’s really overrated. At his best he averages 6 innings per start and I’m sorry but I think staff aces should be able to at least go 7 half of the time. Also, is it certain that Price is going to make the roster out of spring? I heard rumors that he’s been wild and might start the season in the minors.
With that being said I don’t think Tampa’s rotation is as good as the other two. A big part of the reason why they were successful last season was that they stayed healthy the entire year. I don’t know if they can do that again.
Also I don’t like the back end of the Red Sox rotation at all. I think the Penny and Smoltz signings were completely overrated.
I go, Yankees, Red Sox, Tampa, Toronto, Baltimore.
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Chris H. Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 2:27 pm
James Shields is the best on that team, but Kazmir probably has the better arm (actually, David Price probably has the better arm).
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I think you guys might be underestimating the Smoltz and Penny signings. I watch alot of espn and they are pretty sure that Theo invented a time machine and actually signed the 1996 version of John Smoltz and the 2007 version of Brad Penny. I mean thats the only reason everybody and their mother is excited about them right? They’re not in actuality 2 career NL guys who combined to pitch about 114 innings last year, and one of whom happens to be 42 years old coming off shoulder surgery. That can’t be the case, no way.
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Steve S. Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Not only was Penny horrendous last year, he was horrendous in the NL WEST. Where there wasn’t a decent lineup before Manny showed up, and Manny was on his team.
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Casanova Wong Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Errbody is in love with brad penny because he hits 97, 98 on the gun, too bad he strikes out like 6.5/9IP. And he’s already been treated for shoulder soreness this spring.
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I say Tampa, NY, Boston is the order of the AL East right now. I think we have the best top 3 but i think Tampa has a superior 1-5. the sox are very good two but i think they are decidedly 3rd.
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Steve S. Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 6:19 pm
I can see that. Tampa might be better if the Yankee pitchers break down and the good health Tampa starters enjoyed last year is for real. But chances are, it isn’t.
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How high is Price’s projected ceiling?
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Casanova Wong Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Randy Johnson 2.0
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Ace II Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Thanks, from the little i’ve seen he is a beast.
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Steve S. Reply:
March 21st, 2009 at 9:32 pm
As high as there is. His stuff is amazing, his control is good and he’s left handed.
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I feel that the Smoltz signing is being downplayed too much in this piece. Let’s not forget, as recently as 2007, Smoltz was a 30 start/200 inning pitcher posting ERA’s in the low 3’s. Until his shoulder died on him last year, his ERA was 2.57 I believe.
Now, obviously you can doubt if he can come back from major shoulder surgery at age 42, since that can be fairly difficult to do I suppose. Shoulder surgery is a pitchers worst nightmare. However, back when Smoltz was working out for teams, (back in December I believe), there were reports from Sox scouts that he was throwing fastballs in the low 90s and mixing in his splitter, slider, and curve. He sounds very committed towards pitching as well as he can with the Sox this year, and until I am lead to believe otherwise, I do believe he will be dominant this year. If his ERA is over 3.5, I’ll be surprised.
I’m not very high on Brad Penny, as he’s never been a consistently great pitcher while pitching against crappy NL competition in huge ballparks, so I can understand why that signing is being downplayed a bit (although I did hear he was hitting 91-94 in ST, and his shoulder, according to him, felt as good as ever) but I can’t understand Smoltz. That guy is truly a freak of nature.
IMO, the starting rotations rank as this to me:
1) Red Sox
2) Rays
3) Yankees
And lastly, lets not forget about the SP depth the Sox possess. Not only do they possess a very good frontend with Lester, Dice-K, and Beckett (Dice-K may have been lucky, but a 2.9 ERA in the AL East is a 2.9 ERA, which is ace-like) and still have a variety of options to use in the 4th and 5th spots. Penny, for at least the first two months, could be a solid 4/5 starter (nothing special, but pitch well enough to keep the Sox in games). Wakefield, until his disasterous start in Tampa last September, had an ERA under 4 and was baffling hitters all summer long, Buchholz can only pitch better this year (his upside is still huge), Masterson could be moved back to the rotation if need be, and of course, come June, they’ll have Smoltz back and ready to dominate. I fail to see how the Sox rotation could be considered merely “third-best” in the East…they’re packed with quality and quantity at Starting Pitching…coupled with their bullpen, they have the best collection of pitching in baseball, imo.
I hate saying this, but I feel it’ll either be the Rays or the Sox winning the division (I lean towards the Rays) with the loser of those two winning the WC. The Yankees will be there all season, and there is no doubt in my mind that the Rays-Sox-Yankees are the top three teams in baseball, but I can’t see how the Yankees are better than those other two teams. The Sox and the Rays are simply loaded full of talent.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 22nd, 2009 at 1:38 pm
I think that looking at the Sox as having depth ignores the injury risks of Smoltz and Penny- it requires you to make the assumption that “one of them will certainly work out.” I think it was Neyer, but maybe not, who posted scouts saying that they dont see Smoltz being able to be effective coming back from this particular injury. If they get hurt, suddenly Buchholz is in the rotation, while Hughes is the Yankees 6th guy, making their depth look worse than the Yankees. I am not saying it is unreasonable to call the Sox the best rotation in the division, I am just saying that it is not as cut and dried as you might contend.
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Troy Reply:
March 22nd, 2009 at 2:47 pm
That’s a fair point, I’ll grant you that.
“…scouts saying that they dont see Smoltz being able to be effective coming back from this particular injury.
I find that interesting. I know it’s a big if, and I’m kind of a natural pessimist these days regarding the Yankees, but if there is anybody who I could see coming back from that type of surgery at 42, it’s Smoltz.
I already said I don’t see Penny being all that great for the Sox, for reasons already mentioned. Inconsistent pitcher when facing crappy competition, how the heck can he be expected to be good in the toughest division in baseball? I don’t see it working out very well. Maybe Penny can be serviceable for a month or two, but overall, I don’t see him being any type of difference maker for the Sox.
Solid post overall, I can understand where you’re coming from.
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