In an inevitable response to CC Sabathia getting shelled in his second spring start, the Daily News’ John Harper brought up CC’s high number of innings pitched over the last two seasons:
Yes, if Yankee fans feel any need to worry about Sabathia, the numbers that matter aren’t the six hits and five runs he gave up in 1-2/3 innings here against the Tigers. Instead it’s the total of 512 innings, including postseason, that Sabathia pitched over the last two seasons, by far the most of any pitcher in baseball.
Add the stress of pitching on three days’ rest in September and October for the Brewers last season, and Sabathia has the potential for a hangover effect that at least some people in baseball believe is inevitable. In fact, according to one Yankee person, Sabathia’s workload was a source of some internal discussion before it was decided the combination of talent and toughness was worth investing huge money in him over seven years.
Harper’s concern is fair, although there is no reason to connect Sabathia’s performance yesterday to his high workload. However, this is an issue that we have tackled in the past, with the help of THT’s Josh Kalk. The quoted portion below contains part of Kalk’s article on using statistics to comprehend pitching injuries, as well as my comments at the time:
I want to close by looking at the pitcher who was ridden as hard as any in the game last year, C.C. Sabathia.
Sabathia gobbled up innings late in the year as the Brewers desperately attempted to make the playoffs. There was much talk about the Brewers’ right to use a rented player this way, and about then-manager Ned Yost in particular.
Near the end of the season, I looked at these effects and found that Sabathia didn’t seem to be having any issues. With this new metric, we can ask how close Sabathia came to the injury zone. The answer: not very. His highest value was a mere 0.13, ironically on the last day of the season against the Cubs, clinching the playoffs for the Brewers. This is very good news for Yankees fans who shouldn’t worry that the Brewers wore Sabathia out. And this probably means Sabathia will be able to handle a large load this season as well.
That is great news, as I am sure that this will be raised as an issue at some point during Spring Training. The Yankees need Sabathia to give them 200 ace quality innings, considering the injury concerns that plague the rest of the rotation. If Kalk is right, we do not have to worry about CC, and can busy ourselves with worrying about AJ and Joba. Kalk’s research is cutting edge, and could change the way that teams deal with pitchers should his results bear out in 2009. It should be an interesting sabermetric development to track over the next few seasons.
I do not have much to add at this point. All I can say is that it was in fact raised during the spring, and it is likely to be brought up after every poor start by CC. Although, as Kalk finds, it may not actually have any bearing on whether Sabathia stays healthy going forward, we may as well get used to it.
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I never put much thought into what John Harper writes. Andy Pettitte pitched over 500 innings including the post season from 1996-1997. Then he was healthy for a few years as he helped take the Yankees to the World Series from 1998-2001 as everyone knows.
Sabathia has a fluid, repeatable delievery. As long as he isn’t hiding something I have very little concern over the amount of innings he pitched. Looking at innings count for veteran pitchers is overrated. Bronx Baseball Daily(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 12th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Totally agree. The whole concept of limiting innings has been to protect younger pitchers. Guys without health issues should be able to handle an incremental increase in innings. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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I disagree that his work load is a problem. I think its a sign of a future 20 plus game winner as a yankee. He’s 6-7 290 and has a solid arm that he hasn’t come close to thrown out yet.
“Now I know those numbers could mean that he has pitched on bad teams or that the teams he has played for lacked a bull pen but it also means the man can last. He’s 6-7” 290lbs and has a nasty cut fastball. It hasn’t started cutting just yet this spring but when it does it’ll be here for as many innings as we need it. He’s a work horse that is disgustingly fun to watch with an explosive third strike pitch, what more could you want out of an ace? He’s never won twenty games, he had 19 in ’07 with the tribe and a combined 17 last year, but I’m thinking at 28 years old on what’s projected to be an explosive Yankee ball club, twenty wins is right around the corner.” http://yankees.gearupforsports.com/blog/ greg(Quote)
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