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Managers Using Statistics

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 8:44 pm No Responses »
Mar 292009

From Peter Gammons:

Years ago, managers just snubbed their noses at sabermetrics. Now, it’s mostly media members and former players who reject such studies. Not managers.

Washington’s Manny Acta will lay an occasional “VORP” on you, and Brewers manager Ken Macha was so intrigued by “The Fielding Bible,” compiled by John Dewan and Bill James, that he copied sections and gave them to players. He wanted the players to understand the relationship of bases and outs to runs, and how outfielders cutting balls off and hitting relay men and how baserunners’ aggression and hustle add up at the end of the year. So add the Brew Crew to the list of teams using sabermetrics.

I was thinking about this very thing when the Yankees flipped Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon earlier this week. The company line was that the Yankees liked the lefty-batting Damon’s ability to move the runner over, and therefore decided to make the switch. However, there are multiple statistical reasons to flip Jeter and Damon, and I am fairly confident that Joe Girardi considered factors such as contact rate and GB% when making his decision. The Yankees hired Joe because he was a student of the new type of thinking that the Yankees wanted to employ, and we have slowly begun to see the results of that mindset. Although this is a minor move, it is very encouraging, as it is representative of progressive thinking in the Yankees organization. Teams like the Red Sox, Indians, and A’s have been exploiting market inefficiencies for a few years by utilizing statistical analysis to discover undervalued skills. It is good to see the Yankees getting in on the party.

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Bernie's wishful thinking

Posted by Chris H. at 5:30 pm 3 Responses »
Mar 292009

From ESPN:

“I felt really good about playing,” Williams said. “I am my worst critic and I didn’t feel very bad about it. It took me a while to get acclimated. But after a while, I felt very encouraged.”

“I can still play,” said Williams, 40, who was in New York to tape an interview for the YES Network’s “CenterStage” program. He went 0-for-5 with two walks during the WBC.

Williams has yet to ask his agent to contact any big-league teams and would not say if he’d play for a team other than the Yankees. But he did say he’s not interested in playing for an independent league team or working his way back through the minors.

“At this point, I don’t want to be the guy that tries to come back and goes to the independent leagues or the minor leagues for a couple [of] weeks,” Williams said. “I would certainly welcome the opportunity to play in the big leagues at some point, even though the window is very short right now.”

Bernie, if you want to play again you’re going to have work your way back just like everyone else. To think that you can take that much time off and then jump back into it is both asinine and arrogant.

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Final Roster Spots: Center Field (Updated: Gardner Wins Spot)

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:30 pm No Responses »
Mar 292009

Throughout the day, I looked at the battles for the final spots on the Yankees roster: the last reliever, the battle for CF, and the utility infielder fight. I started with the 7th reliever, continued by looking at the utility infielder role, and will now wrap up the series by discussing the battle for center field.

Unlike the last two roster spots that I discussed, it seems that this fight is not for a spot on the team:

The competition between centerfielders Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera is likely to end with both players making the Yankees.

“That’s probably my expectation right now,” manager Joe Girardi said Friday.

Girardi was not ready to reveal which player he wants as the starting centerfielder, though he did say he has one in mind. He and other Yankees decision-makers, most notably general manager Brian Cashman, plan to sit down and discuss that and other roster decisions in the next couple of days….

“The thing is we have two capable centerfielders,” Girardi said. “It’s not our plan to be changing them around every day … I’d like to go with a pretty set lineup every day.”

However, it seems clear from that last quote that one player will be declared the winner and will get the bulk of the playing time. For most of the spring, it seemed that Brett Gardner had the starting job sewn up, as he came flying out of the gate while Melky struggled to get going. However, a recent surge from Cabrera has clouded the issue a bit. Let’s look at the numbers:

1. Brett Gardner: 49 AB’s, .367/.436/.673, 7K/6BB, 9R, 18H, 2 2B, 2 3B, 3HR, 6RBI, 5SB/1CS
2. Melky Cabrera: 52 AB’s, .346/.424/.500, 2K/6BB, 10R, 18H, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1HR, 9RBI, 2SB/1CS

Gardner has clearly had the more prolific spring, and most Yankees fans are aware of the limitations of Melky Cabrera. However, the Yankees have to be impressed by Cabrera’s K/BB ratio, as they have made it clear to him that he needs to improve his batting eye, and he seems to be working on it. Conversely, Gardner needs to work on his strikeouts, as 7 in 49 at bats is quite high for a player who needs to be making contact and using his legs. However, considering Gardner’s overall performance this spring, coupled with his superior defense when compared to Melky, he deserves the starting job. Being that the Yankees will be carrying both players, they can always make a change later should Gardner falter. For now, his speed and defense should add a welcome new element to the Yankees starting lineup.

What do you think?

Update: According to Pete Abraham, Brett Gardner has won the center field job. As I mentioned above, this is the right move. Let’s see if he can hit enough to make his speed a real weapon.

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Final Roster Spots: Utility Infielder

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm No Responses »
Mar 292009

Throughout the day, I will be looking at the battles for the final spots on the Yankees roster: the last reliever, the battle for CF, and the utility infielder fight. I started with the 7th reliever, and will now continue by looking at the utility infielder role.

When the preseason started, most Yankees fans assumed that the UI role would come down to a battle between Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa. Although many hoped that they would go out and sign a veteran with a solid bat to fill that role, Brian Cashman’s reputation of skimping on the end of the bench made that unlikely. Alex Rodriguez’s injury and Derek Jeter’s involvement in the WBC changed the landscape a bit, as Ransom was given the starting #B job and Ramiro Pena looked good at short in Jeter’s stead. Before we dig into the spring stats, let us take a look at some praise for Pena:

“When I first saw him three years ago, you could knock the bat out of his hands,” said one veteran scout whose primary assignment is in the minor leagues. “But he was a magician with the glove and that made him someone to keep an eye on. Now that he’s gained a little weight, put on a little muscle, he’s no longer an ‘out.’ He can handle the bat. I always felt his glove would get him to the big leagues, but now I can see him as an everyday shortstop.”
Pena hit .266 at Double-A Trenton last year, but scouts who saw him say he appeared to be hampered from offseason shoulder surgery. That has not been the case this spring.
“Best looking young shortstop I’ve seen in a couple of years,” said one National League scout.

That sounds like a lot of hyperbole, and I spoke yesterday about the wisdom of trusting unnamed scouts. Pena has come out of nowhere, as he was not even on EJ’s top 30 prospect lists and has never been considered a legitimate starting prospect. That being said, he is not exactly competing with Honus Wagner for a job, as Berroa has had some epically awful seasons. While Pena may be more likely to be a part of the Yankees future, that should not guarantee him a spot on this year’s team.I think this is the type of battle that the Yankees could be justified in deciding solely based on spring training performance. Let’s look at the numbers:

1. Angel Berroa: 52 AB’s, .365/.377/.596, 5K/1BB, 9R, 19H, 6 2B, 2HR, 10RBI, 0SB/1CS
2. Ramiro Pena: 50 AB’s, .320/.370/.400, 5K/4BB, 10R, 16H, 2 2B, 1 3B, 7RBI, 4SB/2CS

It seems pretty close. While Berroa has obviously had a great spring with the bat, he has only taken one walk compared to 4 by Pena. Berroa has shown significantly more power, while Pena has been better on the basepaths. Defensively, although Pena has more errors than Berroa, he is widely considered a great defensive shortstop, while Berroa is deemed one of the worst. Joe Girardi is not going to have an easy answer here, as both players have earned a look. Personally, I would start the season with Berroa, being that this is doubtful to be a full season role. Once A-Rod comes back, Cody Ransom is likely to move to the bench, sending the winner of this job to the minors. The Yankees might be better off trying to catch lightning in a bottle with Berroa for a few weeks while allowing Pena to develop normally in Scranton.

What do you think?

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New Book for Yankee Haters Everywhere

Posted by Steve S. at 11:51 am 3 Responses »
Mar 292009

Gabriel Schechter (a research associate at the Baseball Hall of Fame) has a new book for Red Sox Nation, Mets fans, and Yankee haters everywhere with This Bad Day in Yankees History by Charles April Publishing. The cover features an illustration of the original Yankee Stadium crumbling, and is set up as a calendar in a 6×6 spiral ring binder so pinstripe haters everywhere can easily receive the daily comfort they most likely won’t get from reading the boxscores this year. It opens with this foreword by Bill Lee, a former Red Sox pitcher who hurt his pitching shoulder in an on field brawl with Graig Nettles in 1976.  Lee writes this about Hank Steinbrenner:

“He only opens his mouth to change feet.”

Ok, so we agree on something.  Here’s some excerpts:

January 20, 1999: He Coulda Been A Contender – Brien Taylor’s contract finally runs out, ending the sorriest non-career in Yankees history. The “can’t-miss” left-handed pitcher was drafted in 1991 and signed for a $1.55 million bonus, but injured his shoulder in a senseless fight in 1993 (see Dec. 18), underwent surgery, struggled in the minors, and never pitched in the majors.

and another:

March 7, 1998: Now He’s A Yankee! – Hideki Irabu, a bust as a Yankees pitcher, confronts critical Japanese reporters outside the clubhouse. Someone is filming them, so Irabu charges at him and wrestles him for the camera. Then he demands that still photographers hand over their film. He exposes it to ruin their shots, then throws the videotape on the floor and stomps on it.

Remember the love from good old Blackjack?

July 18, 1995: After a nine-run, 13-hit bombing, Jack McDowell finally gets the hook in the fifth inning. The Yankee Stadium crowd boos him, and he responds by giving them the finger. The Yankees fine him $5,000.

It also has a day about Yankee draft miscues, including 1978 when the Yanks passed on Cal Ripken Jr., Ryne Sandberg, Kent Hrbek, Mike Boddicker, Steve Bedrosian, Kirk Gibson, Bob Horner and Dave Stieb, despite having three first-round picks.  You could probably say the same thing about just about every team every year, but who said he was trying to be fair?

Final Roster Spots: 7th Reliever

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 10:30 am No Responses »
Mar 292009

Throughout the day, I will be looking at the battles for the final spots on the Yankees roster: the last reliever, the battle for CF, and the utility infielder fight. I’ll start with the 7th reliever.

As of now, it seems clear that Mariano Rivera, Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, and Phil Coke will make the opening day roster barring injury. It was assumed for most of spring training that the Yankees would carry a long reliever to fill that final slot, with Dan Giese, Alfredo Aceves, and Brett Tomko being the candidates. However, Joe Girardi suggested this afternoon that the battle for the final relief spot is more complicated than that:

So it looks like Joe Girardi may not take a long reliever after all.
This morning at 8:30 a.m., Girardi talked about the competition between Brett Tomko, Dan Giese and Alfredo Aceves, discussing the importance of today’s game since all three were pitching.
But when someone asked Girardi if the rest of the bullpen was pretty much settled, the manager said something interesting.
“Albaladejo has pitched great,” Girardi said.
At first, I thought maybe Albaladejo was in the mix for a spot we all assumed would go to Jose Veras or Edwar Ramirez, but after the game, it all became a lot clearer. Albaladejo, who can pitch two innings at a time, could combine with Phil Coke to form a long-man committee of sorts. All of a sudden, Tomko, Giese and Aceves weren’t only competing with each other, but with Albaladejo as well.

Let’s look at the spring numbers for the four candidates:

1. A Aceves 4.60ERA, 15.2IP, 14H, 8ER, 4HR, 6BB, 7SO
2. D Giese 6.89ERA 15.2IP, 22H, 12ER, 5HR, 4BB, 17SO
3. B Tomko 1.17ERA, 15.1IP, 12H, 2ER, 1HR, 2BB, 12SO
4. J Albaladejo 0.93ERA, 9.2IP, 8H, 1ER, 0HR, 1BB, 8SO

To me, that looks like a two man race. Giese has shown himself to be an all or nothing type, allowing plenty of hits and home runs while striking out the most batters. Aceves has been decent, but has walked too many batters and has allowed too many home runs. The Yankees may take one of the previous two due to last season’s performance and their potential to be better than a known commodity than Tomko, but I think the wide disparity in performances makes that unlikely.

Looking at Tomko and Albaladejo, both clearly deserve to make the roster. However, the decision between them will come down to a philosophical one: does the team need a long reliever or not? If the Yankees think that the multiple innings that they can get from Bruney, Coke, and Albie make a long man superfluous, then Albie will win the job. Personally, I hated that they went without a long man at the start of last season and jerked Albie and Ross Ohlendorf around as to their roles. With Joba on an innings limit, the Yankees might be better served giving Tomko a shot to start the season. Albaladejo will get his chance eventually.

What do you think?

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