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Fangraphs Ranks Yanks Organization #3

Posted by Steve S. at 9:18 pm 7 Responses »
Mar 262009

Fangraphs has their organizational rankings up, and the Yanks popped up at #3.

NOTE: This is NOT just the farm system, they look at the franchise as a whole and rate them from top to bottom.

Here’s Cameron’s take:

#3: New York Yankees

Ownership: A+

Say what you will about the Steinbrenner’s, but the Yankees enjoy a monstrous financial advantage over the rest of baseball due in large part to the way they have expanded the Yankee brand. The creation of YES Network gave them a significant revenue stream that other teams simply couldn’t match, and while they had an inherent advantage thanks to the history of the franchise, they have capitalized on that legacy more than any other team. The Yankees can literally spend any dollar figure they want on the team and still be profitable. Money just isn’t an issue in the Bronx, and that gives them a sustainable advantage that essentially ensures their competitiveness on a yearly basis.

Front Office: B+

Brian Cashman doesn’t get enough credit for the things he’s done right in New York. Yes, the payroll gives their baseball operations department room to make mistakes that no other franchise could live with, but he’s continually targeted the highest quality of players. He’s also redirected significant cash back into the farm system to develop home grown talent, and he’s shown that he’s an adept trader when he needs to add a piece to the puzzle. The money obviously helps, but Cashman is a good GM, and the Yankees are run well.

Major League Talent: A

With expenditures on major league talent approaching $250 million (including luxury tax payments), it shouldn’t be a surprise that they have a lot of good players. I don’t even have to name them all – we all know who the players on their roster are. The offense is terrific, the rotation is excellent and deep, and the bullpen still has Mariano Rivera. The team lacks depth on the infield and has too many outfielders, but that should be a relatively easy problem to fix. The core of the team isn’t young, but the team always has enough salary obligations opening up to be a premier spending in free agency, so that’s less of an issue than it would be for other organizations.

Minor League Talent: C+

Again, thanks to the financial advantage the Yankees have, the fact that they don’t have a great minor league system isn’t that big of a deal. Jesus Montero has a great bat, but he’s not a catcher in any way, shape, or form. Austin Jackson is a solid prospect who looks like a good bet to be an average to slightly above center fielder. Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman have high ceilings and come with lots of risk. Besides Montero and maybe Jackson, most of the position players in the system are trade bait, as they probably aren’t good enough to start for the Yankees, so they’ll be shipped off for a major league player who is. It’s just the nature of the Bronx Beast.

Overall: A

When you outspend everyone else by close to $100 million, it’s hard not to win. The Yankees have done a fantastic job of creating a revenue model that works better than any other franchise in any sport, and they’re reaping the rewards of that advantage. Unless MLB intervenes and adds a third franchise into New York, it’s hard to see them ever going through a sustained down period. They are the Wal-Mart of baseball, and the machine is basically unstoppable. Love them or hate them, they aren’t going anywhere.

Not much I disagree with, but I will add this. As he lays out, the Yankees have a business model that revolves around expanding and polishing their brand. If they determine a player is hurting that brand, no matter how productive, they will choose the franchise over any one player. As we just saw yesterday, there’s one player they needed to explain this to.

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More Strasburg Stuff: Apparently He's Really Good

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 6:00 pm 2 Responses »
Mar 262009

I know we’ve discussed him before on the blog, but CNNSI posted an article yesterday, by Lee Jenkins that is the definitive Strasburg article, and I’d highly recommend that everyone take a peek at it.  Jenkins writes really well, and gives a soup-to-nuts perspective on the phenom, with stellar quotes and analysis.

Some of the more intriguing stuff you’ll read include some folks absolutely gushing about this kid in unrestrained fashion.  It makes you think he could come into the bigs next year and win 20.   In talking to some scouts watching Strasburg’s game against UNLV where he touch 101mph in the first inning, Jenkins gets these reactions:

“I’ve never seen anyone like him,” said one. “He’s a once-in-a-lifetime talent.” “He doesn’t need the minor leagues,” added another. “He’s ready for the majors right now.” “The only pitcher I could even compare him to is Roger Clemens in his heyday,” offered a third. “This is something you have to see to believe.”

Roger Clemens in his heyday?  That’s ridiculous, but pretty heady stuff for a college kid, huh?  The article also has a great picture of Strasburg, and the guy even LOOKS scary.  Jenkins goes on to describe his stuff in depth as  basically: 4-seamer in high nineties, 2-seamer about 95, with command.  Not only that, apparently his slider is his best pitch.  Sounds like Joba on steroids! Continue reading »

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Carroll: Joba's A #3 Starter At Best

Posted by admin at 4:38 pm 16 Responses »
Mar 262009

In an interview over at DRay’s Bay, Will Carroll, the injury guru of Baseball Prospectus, made some startling comments regarding Joba Chamberlain‘s ceiling and ideal role.

A few months ago, Carroll offered a unique perspective regarding Chamberlain’s innings limit by projecting the 23 year-old could toss 170 innings this year without concerns.

During this interview however, in responding to a question about David Price, Carroll had some peculiar predictions in terms of Joba’s role and the type of ceiling he could have as a starter:

It’s funny because with Chamberlain, I think he’s a better RP than SP, but think he’ll end up as an SP. By that I mean that as an RP, he’s probably one of the best in the game, right now. He would be dominant, would take over the closer role eventually, and is probably as good as Papelbon. As an SP, he’s going to be good, a solid #3, but never dominant.

Really, a #3 starter? Never dominant? For a split-second I laughed to myself thinking maybe “RP” stood for righthanded pitcher and “SP” meant switchpitcher. What else could constitute such a pedestrian projection for a guy who has two plus to plus-plus pitches, an above-average to plus curveball and a serviceable changeup?

Does Will remember the type of domination Chamberlain showed last year as a starter. To refresh his memory, Joba threw 65.1 innings, struck out 74 batters, walked 25 and posted a 2.76 ERA while in the rotation. Over his last five starts he had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 37-to-4 over 31.1 innings. If that’s not the work of a frontline starter, I don’t know what is.

And there are a couple questions I would like to pose to Mr. Carroll following his and other writers’ comments regarding Chamberlain.

Why is it, that Price isn’t considered for the closing job in Tampa Bay? Price debuted in the big leagues and filled a hole for the Rays by coming out of the bullpen during the stretch-run of the season. Just like Joba. However, unlike Joba, Tampa’s lefthander did not have the assurance of Mariano Rivera closing games. They do, however, have an injury prone reclamation project (Troy Percival) currently projected as their 9th inning guy.

Furthermore, Price has made only one start in his career up to this point. Not to say he will not succeed as a starter because Price has frontline starter written all him. But, he missed more time with an elbow issue last year than Joba did during his entire bout with shoulder tendinitis, yet only one is deemed an injury prone mess.

To say Price is a better bet than Joba in the rotation is debatable. To say he has ace potential and Chamberlain does not is asinine.

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The Amazing Pat Venditte

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 4:00 pm No Responses »
Mar 262009

From Jim Baumbach:

The curiosity that led the Yankees to draft ambidextrous pitcher Pat Venditte last June has quickly been replaced by intrigue. And that’s as good an indication as there is of just how impressive Venditte’s debut season as a professional switch pitcher was….

And the Yankees love that Venditte is a completely different pitcher, righthanded compared to lefthanded.

“As a righthander, he’s got an average fastball and a decent breaking ball,” Newman said. “He’s got decent stuff. As a lefthander, he’s a specialist. It’s more finesse.”

Venditte is expected to start this season with Class-A Charleston, and he said his goals are to develop a changeup from both sides and throw more fastballs as a lefthander. And, of course, experience the same type of success that he had last season, when he compiled a 0.82 ERA and struck out 42 in 322/3 innings.

Venditte is considered a fringe prospect, someone who does not have any startlingly good skills with either arm. However, the Yankees drafted Pat in consecutive MLB drafts, suggesting that they see something in him that others do not. If he did ever make it to the majors, he would be a huge asset. Consider the fact that he can pitch two innings as a righty one night, and still be available the next night as a lefty. He would always be matched up against a batter’s weaker side, which gives him an advantage over any other reliever who may be pulled mid-inning to gain a platoon advantage. Venditte making the majors would be quite the spectacle, and would be great fun to watch. I’m definitely rooting for him.

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Old Yankee Stadium Becoming Collectibles

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:56 pm 2 Responses »
Mar 262009

Living in Boston, I did not have a chance to go to the last game in Yankee Stadium. I was not able to score tickets to the All-Star Game, and Opening Day in the new Stadium is on the first day of Passover, so that is not going to happen either. Missing all of these moments has led me to resolve to obtain a piece of the old stadium to compensate for having watched those major events on television. The demolition of the Stadium to create collectibles will happen in the next few weeks, and the struggling economy may cause some previously exoirbatantly priced items to drop into the price range of a typical fan:

The old Yankee Stadium will be chopped up and sold to fans in little pieces as part of a $10 million-plus deal the team struck with the city, The Post has learned.

The payment will give the team the right to sell city-owned portions of the ballpark, including all 57,000 seats, the foul poles, dugouts and even the urinals sources familiar with the deal said.

The team already owned the grass, dirt, lockers, bases and outfield walls…..

Shea Stadium seats were sold for $869 a pair last year, and at the time, some speculated that Yankee Stadium seats could go for closer to $2,000 a pair.

“The seats are where the money is, but in this economy, it’s tough to put a value on sports collectibles,” said Mike Heffner, of auction house Lelands.com.

I would love a pair of seats, but they are likely to be too expensive no matter what the state of the economy. I will probably be relegated to the grass/dirt type of memorabilia. Are you going to get anything? If money were no object, what would you choose?

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Joe Girardi Is Awesome (Jeter Leading Off!)

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 11:55 am No Responses »
Mar 262009

As most of the regulars here are aware of, my pet cause this offseason has been begging the Yankees to flip Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon in the lineup. As I have stated various times, my reasoning is the following:

The one element that supports keeping things as they are is Damon’s speed, as he is a much better base stealer than Jeter at this point. However, the remainder of the data points in the opposite direction. Unless Jeter’s poor season was a sign of a steep decline, Derek is better at reaching base than Damon, with a 30 point edge in OBP over their careers. However, Damon is less prone to the strikeout (12.1 K% to 17.1 for Jeter) and is significantly better at keeping the ball off the ground (1.33 GB/FB compared to 2.36). Essentially, this means that Damon is able to put up similar numbers to Jeter while making more contact and hitting fewer ground balls, both qualities that help avoid rally killing double plays and strikeouts from the #2 slot. Finally, Damon has a bit more power than Jeter, another element that suggests flipping them would lead to more runs.

If Joe Torre was still the manager, this would be a pipe dream. However, being that Joe Girardi is supposed to be more open to change and prone to using statistics, I thought that the logic of the move would eventually smack him in the face. Well, courtesy of Pete Abraham, this is the lineup for today’s preseason game:

Jeter SS
Damon LF
Teixeira 1B
Matsui DH
Swisher RF
Cano 2B
Ransom 3B
Molina C
Cabrera SS

UPDATE, 9:31 a.m.: Girardi just named CC the starter for Opening Day and the home opener. Joba will start the sixth game. They’re also toying with Jeter hitting leadoff with Damon second….As for Jeter hitting leadoff, when they were using Posada to hit leadoff to get him some at-bats when he started catching, they liked what Damon did in the No. 2. So they’re toying with the idea of using Jeter atop the lineup. Damon is a good pull hitter and adept at advancing runners.

According to Kat O’brien, this is more than just an experiment. Rather:

The Yankees’ lineup will have a new look this season.

Derek Jeter will be the leadoff hitter and Johnny Damon will bat second, a top of the lineup switch the Yankees will use for the rest of spring training.

Manager Joe Girardi said the reason for the switch is because the team likes how Damon has looked batting second in spring training games. As long as the Yankees like what they see over the final week of spring training games, the team will bring this lineup into the regular season.

The new look at the top of the batting order also is an indication that the Yankees will use Brett Gardner as their everyday centerfielder. Gardner figures to be the ninth hitter, and if Damon was batting leadoff opponents would likely bring a lefthanded specialist to face both hitters. Putting Jeter first splits the two lefthanded hitters.

Damon was called into Girardi’s office when he arrived Thursday morning and said afterwards he has no problem giving up the leadoff spot.

“I’m okay with it if it makes our team better,” Damon said.

Joe Girardi is awesome for even considering messing with the status quo. It is a small change, and it probably will not have a huge impact (According to David Pinto, three runs over the season). However, every win counts in a division as tough as the AL East, and if the switch brings even half a win over the season it will have been worth it. I’m torn between dreaming that Yankee management reads our blog and hoping that they came to this conclusion on their own.

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Matsui Not A Liability (or The Sunk Cost Concept)

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 10:07 am No Responses »
Mar 262009

Anothy Rieber of Newsday recently penned an article about the problems posed by Hideki Matsui:

Hideki Matsui? Great guy. True Yankee. Solid player. Also, a total liability to the 2009 Yankees’ plans to get to the playoffs and win the World Series….. How does it affect the team? Let us count the ways the Yankees would be better of if Matsui wasn’t taking up a roster spot:

– Without Matsui, the Yankees could go into the season without a regular DH….

– Without Matsui, the Yankees could afford to carry a third catcher on the roster. Posada could DH three times a week and catch three times a week. Jose Molina is an exceptional defensive catcher. The Yankees, and Posada, would be better off if in a time-share arrangement….

– Without Matsui, the Yankees would have a mechanism to get Nick Swisher at-bats….

– Without Matsui, the Yankees could ease A-Rod back into the lineup as the DH when he returns in May.

Rieber’s reasoning is faulty on various levels, but I think it would be valuable to look at the sunk cost concept before delving into what he wrote.

The sunk cost concept is one that is often ignored by sportwriters and club executives when analyzing baseball teams. Let’s get a definition from About.com:

Sunk costs are unrecoverable past expenditures. These should not normally be taken into account when determining whether to continue a project or abandon it, because they cannot be recovered either way. It is a common instinct to count them, however.

How does this apply to sports? Well, once a player signs his contract, his salary becomes a sunk cost, as the team has no way of recovering it. Therefore, the amount of money that a player is earning should have no bearing on future decision making. The cheaper player should play over the high priced guy if he is better, and the fact that you have tons of money sitting on the bench should be irrelevant.

My point? Just because Matsui is making 13 Million a year does not mean he has to play. If he really was such a liability so as to totally wreck the Yankees roster, he would not be on it. The reason he is on the roster is because having him in the lineup is more valuable to the Yankees than any of the options Rieber lists.

Rieber wants them to leave the DH spot open for Posada, A-Rod, and Damon. They can accomplish that easily, by making Matsui a pinch hitter rather than a starter. Under the current arrangement, any day in which they need that spot, they can send Hideki to the pine. Same thing with getting Swisher or A-Rod at-bats in the DH spot- just stick Hideki on the bench. If they do not do that, it is because they realize that Matsui is an asset to the club, rather than a liability.

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