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Chamberlain, A-Jax, and Albaladejo Impress, Igawa Falters

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 6:44 pm No Responses »
Mar 222009

A few notable performances from the last two days:

1) Joba Chamberlain seems to be rounding into form, allowing just one run on four hits and five K’s in 3.1 innings. Although he still needs to do some work in regard to finishing off batters and reducing his pitch count, he seems to be about ready to slot into the 5th starter role. He needs a few more starts to get stretched out to 100 pitches, at which point the Yankees will use him sparingly over the first month to conserve his innings.

2) Jonathan Albaladejo, who will be the subject of a longer post at some point tomorrow, continued his excellent spring with 1.2 scoreless innings. The Yankees are going to have a number of relievers who may not make the team despite having MLB experience as well as excellent springs, with Albie and Dave Robertson leading that pack.

3) Edwar Ramirez and Jose Veras both faltered a bit, but neither looked poor enough to loosen their grip on a bullpen spot. Mariano Rivera was his dominant self, needing 12 pitches to retire the side.

4) Kei Igawa ended his hopeless bid for a roster spot, allowing one run on 4 hits and 4 walks in 2.2 innings. Have a nice season in Scranton, Kei.

5) Austin Jackson is hitting .324 and slugging .588 in spring training. If Gardner and Cabrera both falter, we may see Jackson before the end of this season. He tripled today, and looks to be a very exciting player. The Yankees may actually be alright in center field.

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The Art Of Closing

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:15 pm No Responses »
Mar 222009

One debate that often comes up between the traditional fan and those who employ sabermetrics is the role of the closer, and late inning relievers in general. Sabermetricians would argue that runs in the 8th and 9th innings count no more and no less than those in the 1st, suggesting that having a cold-blooded closer is a bit overrated. The traditional fan will counter by claiming that there are certain people who can handle big spots in the late innings, and those who cannot, and teams should take advantage of a player who has proven that he can deal with the pressure.

Yankees fans will recognize this debate from the Joba Chamberlain situation, in which fans constantly battle over where he may be more valuable. An interesting bit of data from the NY Times Freakonomics blog suggests that it may make sense to use your best pitchers in the late innings:

Here’s my favorite new fact about N.C.A.A. basketball: teams that are behind by one point at halftime are actually more likely to win than teams that are one point ahead. This striking finding comes courtesy of a terrific new paper by my Wharton colleagues, Jonah Berger and Devin Pope…..

Berger and Pope are two of the brightest young behavioral economists around, and they posit a behavioral explanation. Losing can lead to winning because of the strong motivating effects of being close to your goal. You can link some of this to Prospect Theory — loss aversion suggests that you may be willing to work harder to avoid a negative outcome (a loss); the leading teams, by contrast, aren’t focused on the losing domain.

As baseball fans, we can extrapolate from this data a simple observation about the 9th inning. A team losing by one run entering the 9th may actually be giving more effort to avoid a loss than the team leading the game, who is thinking less about losing due to their being ahead at the time. This would suggest that a manager may want to head off disaster by pitching his best hurlers in the late innings, as the opposition may actually be trying harder in the 8th than the 1st.

This does not mean that Joba Chamberlain belongs in the 8th inning. A run is much harder to score than 2 points in basketball, such that a team would prefer to be leading heading into the 8th inning, and Joba gives the Yankees a better chance of achieving that end by being a starter. However, it does suggest that there may actually be an art to closing, as players who succeed in that role must contend with the greater effort of the opposition as compared to earlier innings. Just because someone can handle the 7th or 8th, does not mean he can handle the closer role. On that note, let us just marvel at the continued greatness of Mariano Rivera, as he seems to have no trouble shutting down the opposition, no matter how hard they are trying.

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The Matt Holliday Sweepstakes

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 12:27 pm No Responses »
Mar 222009

Buster Olney recently handicapped the Matt Holliday sweepstakes that are sure to ensue the second free agency opens following the 2009 season. He mentions the Angels and Red Sox as the top two suitors, being that both could use a middle of the order type bat, and has the Yankees in third:

3. YANKEES: The contracts of Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui will expire after this season, so the Yankees will be in a position to take a run at Holliday — and if the team doesn’t make the playoffs again, the Yankees will be under enormous pressure to sign the slugger. If you think the right-handed hitting Holliday wouldn’t be a good fit in Yankee Stadium, well, there are long-term scouts who would vehemently disagree with you.
“You know how [Derek] Jeter flips his home runs over the right-field wall?” asked one scout. “That’s exactly how Holliday would hit in Yankee Stadium, except in much greater volume. His swing is perfect for Yankee Stadium.”
Jeter might be the X factor. At some point over the next 18 months, the Yankees may well approach him about shifting away from shortstop. He cannot move to third base, because of Alex Rodriguez, and Teixeira is locked in as the first baseman for the next eight years. It’s unlikely the Yankees would consider moving Jeter to second base, because the questions about whether he would have suitable range to play the middle infield will still stand.
So if Jeter is to continue playing with the Yankees, it would probably have to be in left or right field, given that he will turn 36 in June 2010. That looming issue shouldn’t be a consideration as the Yankees think of ways to improve for next season, but the reality is that political concerns were at the root of the club’s decisions to essentially overpay Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and A-Rod in the winter of 2007-08.

No matter how well Holliday’s swing may fit in Yankee Stadium, I think there are a variety of factors that should keep the Yankees away from him. Firstly, the Jeter issue does suggest that locking a left fielder up with a long term contract may not be the most prudent move for a team that may need to find a position for their captain within the not so distant future. Furthermore, the availability of Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez gives the Yankees cheaper and shorter-term options, especially if the market for outfielders remains depressed. The Yankees already have two legitimate middle of the order hitters, and would be fine if they supplemented those players with a hitter such as Bay. While Holliday is a significantly better defensive player than both Ramirez and Bay, the added flexibility that the Yankees would be gaining by eschewing another long term deal makes that sacrifice worth it. Holliday is much more valuable to the Angels and Red Sox, two teams with aging middle of the order hitters who can use a player of Matt’s caliber. For once, the Yankees should pass.

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Another Sordid A-Rod Scandal

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 10:25 am No Responses »
Mar 222009

Most Yankees fans were feeling good about Alex Rodriguez coming into this morning. A New York Times article brought news that we may see Alex earlier than expected:

“Actually, he’s ahead of schedule,” Philippon said Wednesday. “He’s a very disciplined athlete, very easy to work with. So far, we don’t have any curveballs.”
Philippon said that within a half-hour of the surgery, which was performed March 9, Rodriguez was riding a stationary bike, the normal procedure for Philippon’s patients in order to regain confidence and muscle memory.

For now, Rodriguez is limited to pool work and motion exercises that include hip rotations that simulate a swing. The rehabilitation is conducted in a separate part of the clinic.

“He already has better range of motion than he had before,” Philippon said.

The good vibes, however, did not last long, as a new A-Rod scandal is on the horizon. The Daily News is reporting that Alex Rodriguez frequently used the same call girl service as former governor Elliot Spitzer, and even dated the madam that ran the operation:

A former Manhattan madam who supplied Eliot Spitzer with hookers also counted Yankee slugger Alex Rodriguez as a customer – and found him so charming she dated him herself for free, former employees of the call-girl agency tell the Daily News.
A-Rod wooed ex-madam Kristin Davis with flowers, jewelry, persistence and heated e-mails, according to the sources.
“Throughout the years, there were a number of clients that I befriended and it was not uncommon for them to want the women they can’t have whether it be the phone bookers or the madam,” Davis said.

Unbelievable. The man cannot go more than ten minutes without another scandal touching him. Personally, I think that stuff like this is nobody’s business but his own. However, that does not absolve Alex for his poor decision making. The man makes some very bad personal choices, and he has to know that his status as a star ballplayer is likely to lead to his infidelities coming to light. We have reached a point at which we just sadly shake our head when we hear things like this about Alex, as if we were just waiting for another thing like this to come into the open. Alex better hurry back and quiet some of this gossip babble with his bat.

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