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Matsui Won't Play OF Until June

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 10:07 pm 11 Responses »
Mar 182009

This news from the AP via ESPN.   Joe Girardi states that, “The earliest we would need him in the outfield would be interleague, and that’s a ways off,” Girardi said Wednesday. “That’s why we envision him as our everyday DH. We need him. He’s a great RBI guy. He’s very important to our lineup.”

There’s not a lot of flexibility in that lineup if Jorge can’t catch.  Cross those fingers that Posada keeps improving at his current pace or there could be a serious logjam at DH.

Steve’s Thoughts: This of course begs the question ‘What happens in June?’ Matsui’s a Left fielder who bat plays nicely there, but his glove does not. As it is, we already have an outfield logjam with Nady, Gardner, Damon, Swisher and to a lesser degree Melky all vying for playing time. Girardi has long made it known he prefers to keep the DH spot open to rest his regulars and still keep their bat in the lineup, and has been quoted recently saying that he thinks Baseball is shifting away from the power game to more of a speed-pitching-fielding direction in the post steroid era.

The easy answer is ‘Someone will get hurt, don’t worry about it’. But this also might signal a willingness to move someone at the trade deadline (or sooner) if everyone’s healthy. Of the 6 outfielders, who might that be?

My guess is Matsui, especially if Nick Swisher gets off to a hot start. As we saw this off season, the Yanks won’t offer arbitration to any of their aging, highly paid players for fear they’ll accept. So free agent compensation isn’t an issue with him. He’s really the square peg on this team, he offers the team a solid though replaceable bat and little flexibility otherwise. On days he plays the OF he’s a downgrade defensively, Damon would still lead off as the DH. Which tells me they might very well be shopping him. It doesn’t make sense to play him in Left, except for the occasional matchup or day off for Damon. You’d leave him at DH unless you were showcasing him. If he gets steady time out there in June, it could mean a trade is brewing.

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Discussion: Revisiting The Tabata-Nady/Marte Trade

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 6:54 pm No Responses »
Mar 182009

A few recent events have me thinking about last year’s trade in which the Yankees sent phenom Jose Tabata along with Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, and Dan McCutcheon to the Pirates for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. Firstly, Bill Madden mentioned the deal in an article on Marte and Phil Coke:

In that respect, it was somewhat surprising when Brian Cashman – who otherwise read the market on free agents this winter pretty astutely – bestowed Marte with a three-year, $12 million contract. One can only surmise the GM felt the need to partly justify last summer’s trading deadline deal in which he sacrificed three of the Yankees’ top prospects, including outfielder Jose Tabata, to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Marte and outfielder Xavier Nady, who’s a free agent after this season.

I would suggest that Cashman resigned Marte because the Yankees have not had an effective lefty reliever for the longest time, but that is not the issue here. Tabata’s subsequent appearance in a Spring Training game against the Yankees led me to begin wondering about that trade. Was it the right move?

It is important to note that at the time, the move was hailed as a steal for a Yankees club desperately trying to reach the postseason. However, various subsequent events have muddied the waters a bit. Tabata snapped out of his season long funk following the trade, while the Yankees missed out on the postseason. Nady and Marte profile as important pieces of the 2009 Yankees, but nether is indispensable and similar talents could have been found on the free agent market. One other important point to note is that the original version of the trade had Brian Cashman sending Phil Coke and George Kontos over to the Pirates, but Pittsburgh substituted McCutcheon and Karstens at the last moment.

With all of these factors in mind, I ask you to answer some difficult questions. Did you like the trade at the time? Would you have been equally fine with it had Coke and Kontos been involved? How do you feel about the deal now? Is this trade a feather in the cap of Brian Cashman, or is it ammunition for those who feel that he is a poor GM?

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Mark Teixeira And Defense Metrics

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:14 pm No Responses »
Mar 182009

RLYW continued their series on projections by looking at Mark Teixeira. While they found that he should have an excellent season at the plate, the defensive numbers on Tex were a bit surprising to me. They show that Mark is at best a slightly above average defensive first baseman:

One of the things that Teixeira also supposedly brings to the Yankees is a great glove. However, the statistics don’t necessarily agree with the scouting reports on that….

That doesn’t really look like the supposedly great glove we keep hearing about, although it’s worth noting that ZR and UZR don’t capture a 1B’s ability to scoop bad throws or to chase down foul popups, which are probably worth a few runs. He should at least be solidly average at 1B.

The scouting report on Teixeira is that of a Gold Glove caliber first baseman, and this incongruence between the numbers and the scouts brings me to my point. I love statistics, and use them liberally when it comes to hitting. However, in regard to defense, they are best used in conjunction with scouting reports, with neither element holding greater weight. Defensive metrics are surprisingly subjective, as they often include judgments made by an official scorer. Because they are a very inexact science, treating them as definitive or significantly better than scouting reports seems a bit silly. To some degree, we have to trust our eyes to properly place Teixeira on the spectrum of defensive ability.

Does this seem a bit out of touch with reality, maybe displaying an unwillingness to hear that Tex is not amazing defensively? Well, it seems that some baseball insiders with a statistical and analytical background agree with my reservations about defensive metrics. Here is a snippet from an interview that BP did with Shiraz Rehman, the Director of Baseball Operations and a statistical guru for the Diamondbacks:

I think that defensive metrics, on the aggregate, have improved significantly in recent times, thanks to the work of John Dewan, Bill James, and others. But in fairness, they are probably still imperfect, and as a result we still rely a fair bit on some of our internal assessments and subjective valuations in that area to come up with a comprehensive look at defense.

I totally agree. In regard to defense, the numbers often lie, and just pointing to them without seeing the player field his position would be irresponsible. I know that Derek Jeter is bad defensively because I can easily observe his lack of range, and the numbers confirm that. On the other hand, I find it hard to believe that Brett Gardner is the second coming of Willie Mays given his poor routes to balls, and I think that the defensive metrics probably overrate him a bit. Ultimately, it is important to find some sort of balance between the scouting reports and the metrics. Otherwise, there is no way that you can form an accurate conception of a player’s defensive ability.

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Minor League Preview: Charleston Riverdogs

Posted by EJ Fagan at 2:02 pm 12 Responses »
Mar 182009

Really, this is all guesswork:

Catcher: Kyle Higashioka
1st Base: Someone
2nd Base: David Adams
Shortstop: Carmen Angelini
3rd Base: Braedyn Pruiit
Left Field: Raymond Kruml
Center Field: Abraham Almonte
Right Field: Daniel Brewer
Designated Hitter: Corban Joseph
Others: Addison Maruszak, Chase Weems, Braedyn Pruitt

Starting Pitcher: Arodys Vizcaino
Starting Pitcher: Andrew Brackman
Starting Pitcher: Casey Erickson
Starting Pitcher: Manny Banuelos
Starting Pitcher: Adam Olbrychowski

Relief Pitcher: Davis Phelps
Relief Pitcher: Pat Venditte
Relief Pitcher: Andy Shive
Relief Pitcher: Brian Braboy

Really, I have little clue what will go on at Charleston. The Yankees could go any number of ways to fill out the Charleston roster. I listed three 2nd baseman – Cuello, Adams, and Joseph. They could play any combination of those positions, or one could be held back to preserve their positions. Banuelos and Phelps could start. Adam O. could go the bullpen. I have no idea who will play 1st base.

Charleston isn’t all that stacked in the hitting department. The two catchers are interesting. Joseph and Adams are decent hitting prospects along the caliber of Colin Curtis and Brett Gardner. Angelini, Cuello, and Almonte are a strong young trio of hitters with plenty of potential both on defense and offense.

I don’t expect to see guys like Brett Marshall, Kelvin De Leon, Garritt Lassiter at Charleston yet. The Yankees move very slowly with most of their Latin American prospects, and I think that the presence of Carmen Angelini will prevent Lassiter from moving to the same level as him. Marshall could easily start at Charleston, but given the way the Yankees handled Betances and McAllister, I predict that they will go slowly. Its not like they don’t have a ton of pitching already in the pipeline.

Update: Edited for my own ignorance. Manny Barreda is out with Tommy John.

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Baseball Prospectus: Yankee System Ranked #13

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:28 pm 16 Responses »
Mar 182009

Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus finished off his off season roundup of farm systems by posting his organizational rankings today. The Yankees clock him at #13. A subscription is required to read it all.

Goldstein’s point is basically that the Yankees have a ton of super-risky guys and not a lot of strong bets among their high-upsiders. I think that this characterization is accurate.

The Yankees don’t have the kind of guys that the organizations above them do. Jesus Montero has fantastic potential, but he could also end up stuck as a career DH. Andrew Brackman is much more likely to never see the majors than to be a dominant ace. Austin Jackson could easily end up as average. Dellin Betances is an unknown. Jeremy Bleich has injury concerns.

They compliment these guys with the Aceves and Cokes and Cervellis and Melancons and Romines of the world. These are very useful prospects, but not future stars. The Yankees would have benefitted enormously in these rankings by signing Gerrit Cole and Scott Biddle (or any 1st and 2nd round picks), and would likely jump up a spot or two.

Between that draft failure and their loss of prospects to trades and graduation recently, they look less like an elite farm system right now. I think that it is important to separate the structure of a farm system from the prospects currently under that structure. Few teams could still be in the top half of farm systems after losing Jose Tabata, Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, and others in just a year while failing to sign two top talents in the draft. Teams like the Diamondbacks, Angels, and Nationals have graduated similar levels of prospects and not restocked nearly as fast.

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Joba the starter closer

Posted by Chris H. at 12:46 pm 10 Responses »
Mar 182009

From Joel Sherman (NY Post):

In today’s Post, I wrote that several Yankee officials confirmed to me that if Mariano Rivera were to go down for an extended period then Joba Chamberlain most likely would be made the closer. I continue to believe this is the most likely way Chamberlain ends up back in relief – not because the Yanks need him in the eighth inning, but because they need him in the ninth. I think they worry about not only having someone with the stuff for the job, but the disposition. They know Chamberlain would not be cowed by, say, the middle of the Red Sox lineup, one-run lead, bottom of the ninth, Fenway Park. As one Yankee official said, “Actually, I think he would love that.” There is no one else they can feel that sure about handling that level of pressure.

For me, this is akin to a paradox, as a Joba-switch would be both surprising and unsurprising. It would be surprising in that all pitchers are creatures of habit, meaning that a midseason starter-to-closer transition could be a fairly daunting task (physically and mentally). Therefore, why subject Joba to that if there are other options out there? Sure, they have done something similar before, with Joba, however, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it should be done again.

By other options, I’m referring to Brian Bruney and Damaso Marte. In terms of bullpen depth, it would seem as though they are the two primary options to replace Mariano if an injury were to occur. Bruney’s character is built on this premise of “tenacity” and he has a plus fastball, so why not? Bruney the closer was a concept that Sherman asked a Yankee official about, actually, and the official responded with the following:

“Let’s see him handle the eighth inning first.”

Ouch. But seriously, with ample arms in the ‘pen would it really be necessary to move Joba? Marte has closing experience and is a strikeout artist. I figure he can get it done, too. If the team were to move Joba again, it would seem — to me — to be a strange move given the presence of Marte and Bruney (a surprising one).

However, at the same time, Phil Hughes’ spring training would make it an unsurprising one. Hughes has been excellent this spring and many think he could handle the rotation this year (I agree). This would allow the Yankees to be flexible with Joba’s role. Also, Joba needs an innings cap, which would be negotiated through a Mariano injury and a move to the bullpen. So, given the team’s resources and need to cap Joba, the move would be unsurprising, as well.

Of course, in the end, this entire concept rests upon the notion that Mariano Rivera may be injured at some point this season. Rivera looked great in his spring debut and seems poised to have another strong year. He’s a robot, so I don’t think we’ll see Joba the closer anytime soon.

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Aaron Boone to have heart surgery

Posted by Chris H. at 12:06 pm 1 Response »
Mar 182009

Continue reading »

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Bruney Feeling Confident

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 12:04 pm No Responses »
Mar 182009

In an article that suggests the Yankees would use Joba Chamberlain to close if Mariano Rivera was unable to pitch (can they ever just leave this issue alone?), Joel Sherman has some telling quotes from Brian Bruney:

That is unless Bruney makes people forget about Chamberlain in the eighth inning, thus earning the right to try the ninth, if need be.

“I don’t give a [spit] about that,” Bruney said of proving the Yanks don’t need Chamberlain in the pen. “I am here to help the team win a World Series. I am not Joba, so I am not worried about Joba. Anyone who thinks Joba should be in the eighth, that is their business. The team is counting on me in the eighth inning.”

“Without sounding like Terrell Owens here, I know I have good stuff,” Bruney said. “I have an upper-90s fastball, upper-80s breaking ball and a good changeup. People wish they had my stuff. But I have to attack the strike zone. The count has to be 1-2, not 2-1. If that means throwing 93 [mph], not 97, I have to do that.”

“My ideal situation is to be a closer,” Bruney said. “I want that pressure situation. I want the toughest job. It not only pays better, but I like being out there with stuff on the line. I am not saying I want to take Mariano’s job. I just see myself as a closer one day. That is why this [year] is such a big step for later in my career.”

Wow. Bruney looked like a back of the bullpen type following 2007, as his poor control and often erratic command would continually bite him at inopportune moments. However, he rededicated himself to the game and has lost 40 pounds since that time. He looked very strong when healthy in 2008, and he should be a suitable member of a late game rotation with Damaso Marte. Ultimately, he will never be a closer due to his control issues. However, it is good to see that he has the mentality necessary to pitch in big spots.

What kind of season do you expect from Brian Bruney?

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Yankees Rotation Best In AL East?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 10:00 am No Responses »
Mar 182009

As I noted earlier this week, the AL East has become a division dominated by pitching. Dugout Central took a look at the projections for the rotations of the three contenders in the division, and reached an unsurprising conclusion:

Team Projection    IP        HR     BB     SO     FIP
Yankees Total     840.3     72     265    696    3.60
Red Sox Total     808.7     83     292    638    4.04
Rays Total           769.3     88      232    637    3.94

We can see that even here the Yankees reign supreme, and quite significantly too. They get the most IPs out of their starters, they give up the least home runs and strike out the most batters. Injuries can, of course, change things. But if they stay healthy, the Yankees rotation is a force to be reckoned with – at least this is what the projections say.

There you have it. Bookmark this post, so that when you get into arguments with Red Sox fans about this, you can point out that past performance suggests that Boston has the third best rotation in the division, with the Yankees being comfortably in the lead. If all three teams stay healthy, the Yankees should be carried by their pitching to a division crown.

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Catching up with some ex-Yankees . .

Posted by Steve S. at 6:13 am 1 Response »
Mar 182009

. . that we all knew and loved well, let’s just leave it at that.

-Sir Sidney Ponson signed with the KC Royals.

-Chris Britton isn’t going to make the Padre’s 25 man roster.

-Randy Johnson (who’s 45) speculates on pitching until he’s 50.

-Ivan Rodriguez’s deal is done, 1.5 mil with the Astros.

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